Curt Doolittle

Theme: Truth

  • @SRCHicks: I’m not just down in the weeds, but down in the quantum background on

    @SRCHicks: I’m not just down in the weeds, but down in the quantum background on the spectrum of human communication (paradigms, vocabularies, and grammars): especially that of lying.

    And from that understanding, it’s quite clear that just as the Greeks invented empiricism, reason, and testimonial truth given the indo european group strategy of aristocratic contractualism, the middle east, which began with mythicism between priests and peasants, and forged states later on, then upon encountering the Greek and later Roman, innovated in lying by social construction (mythicism) as profoundly as the greeks had innovated in truthfulness (empiricism).

    Much of my work has resulted in a deep understanding of techniques of communication and in particular of lying. And oddly enough, via-negativa, it turns out we learn more about our nature from the study of anti-social behavior and lying (the diverse negative particulars) than we do from the entire history of studies of what is ideal, good, and moral (similar, positive, generalizations).

    And yes I’m happy to do this drudgery outside of the academy – because it’s not safe for others to do so within it. 😉

    Thanks for all the work you’ve done and continue to do.

    Curt Doolittle
    The Natural Law Institute

    Reply addressees: @SRCHicks

    Source date (UTC): 2023-06-02 19:34:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664717209850068992

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664664666469957634

  • “Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir In response to accusations of ‘always

    “Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir https://youtube.com/shorts/cb162-c7sPg

    In response to accusations of ‘always wrong’: That’s nonsense. The purpose of public intellectuals is to produce a field of framing and predictions from which we have the opportunity to prioritize our…

    Source date (UTC): 2023-06-02 19:01:28 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664708828640825360

  • “Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir In response to accusations of ‘always

    “Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir https://t.co/4G2114NFq7

    In response to accusations of ‘always wrong’: That’s nonsense. The purpose of public intellectuals is to produce a field of framing and predictions from which we have the opportunity to prioritize our understanding and actions ourselves. I follow MV closely (he’s just getting started), and he is consistently correct about shifts in potential, and most importantly, he avoids clickbait and drama that distracts from the content.

    In geostrategy, geopolitics, economics and finance, just as in the other sciences, we always and everywhere find a distribution of opinions that bias toward optimism, continuity, or pessimism. For most investors, pessimism (identifying potential risks) provides the most useful opinion and data with the broadest application.

    Why? We all have specific knowledge (or should) about our particular investments, but broader influences effects and consequences tent to play out on general market conditions as well as particulars.

    I’ve been in the prediction biz since the 80s, and in general, the contrarians (risk finders) will be right in the long run with timing the only difference between us. Whereas optimists can be right in the short term if you act quickly on an emerging opportunity. And in my lifetime of experience ‘continuity’ or cycle followers haven’t read Mandelbrot and don’t grasp that if it’s that regular then we tend to miss outliers (black swans).

    In this case, Israel, the USA is withdrawing from policing the world and causing regions to take local responsibility for their security. Everyone in the middle east is deeply aware of this as well as china’s interest in replacing that influence, and iran’s ambitions to pursue empire given the opportunity.

    Israel is facing demographic and strategic conflict. It is rather foolish of Israel to allow Iran nuclear weapons. And Israel is no longer bound by american limitations on doing so.

    Furthermore, with the present internal conflict a war will unite the country the way wars always do, which is why states tend to use external forces to cause internal unity.

    It’s not a question of Israel attacking Iran. It’s just a question of when. Because the worst thing for the region is an Iran with even worse ambitions than it’s had since the late seventies.

    Cheers
    Curt Doolittle
    The Natural Law Institute

    Source date (UTC): 2023-06-02 19:01:28 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664708828305281037

  • It’s not an opinon. I answered it above more precisely than youll generally find

    It’s not an opinon. I answered it above more precisely than youll generally find.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-06-01 03:55:54 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664118548791275523

    Reply addressees: @deadpinata8773 @mattyglesias

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664116898467045376

  • I mean why would you confidently assert something so false?

    I mean why would you confidently assert something so false?

    Source date (UTC): 2023-05-31 21:34:47 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664022637847126016

    Reply addressees: @SwipeWright

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664009208499511296

  • Hmm: Faith, Hope, Belief, Trust, Confidence, Conviction, Certainty. It’s not a m

    Hmm: Faith, Hope, Belief, Trust, Confidence, Conviction, Certainty.

    It’s not a matter of can. But of will.
    Will is a matter of context.
    Context is a matter of intolerability.
    We’re getting pretty close to intolerable. 😉

    So for me? Confidence, Conviction and near certainty. 😉

    Source date (UTC): 2023-05-30 20:45:08 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663647753241591809

    Reply addressees: @Nefertiiti

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663646652928778244

  • THOUGHTS We’ve largely finished the logic of deceit. We’re working on the logic

    THOUGHTS
    We’ve largely finished the logic of deceit. We’re working on the logic of ignorance, error, and bias. Ignorance and error were pretty easy. When we get to bias, we find we need to ‘science’ the cognitive biases like we have everything else.

    And it turns out it’s pretty…

    Source date (UTC): 2023-05-30 18:57:52 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663620758268960769

  • THOUGHTS We’ve largely finished the logic of deceit. We’re working on the logic

    THOUGHTS
    We’ve largely finished the logic of deceit. We’re working on the logic of ignorance, error, and bias. Ignorance and error were pretty easy. When we get to bias, we find we need to ‘science’ the cognitive biases like we have everything else.

    And it turns out it’s pretty challenging because there really are only a handful of dimensions (two really) to cognitive bias: a) the neuro-cognitive hierarchy, and the quality of information in time.

    And so while it’s possible to ‘science’ the cognitive biases, listing the ones we know of already would be pointless over time. And it would require a huge list that wouldn’t inform anyone, or ever be complete.

    So I’m struggling with just producing a the logic of it and not satisfying demand with sufficient precision, or including too much and discounting the work itself.

    🙁

    Source date (UTC): 2023-05-30 18:57:51 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663620758138961920

  • TRUTH ISN”T PESSIMISM. IT FORCES US INTO HEROISM. Truth isn’t pessimistic. Inste

    TRUTH ISN”T PESSIMISM. IT FORCES US INTO HEROISM.
    Truth isn’t pessimistic. Instead, the truth exposes that the universe is a vast irradiated wasteland hostile to human life. The solar system has tried to eradicate life multiple times – regularly. And nearly succeeded. The planet… https://twitter.com/curtdoolittle/status/1663545433568976900

    Source date (UTC): 2023-05-30 14:05:21 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663547144811454472

  • Techniques of more subtle deception hiding by plausible deniability, but still a

    Techniques of more subtle deception hiding by plausible deniability, but still all within the broader method of suggesting, loading, framing, obscuring. https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1662376595426885633