Theme: Science

  • At current rates, mirroring the severity of the disruption in china, and how tha

    At current rates, mirroring the severity of the disruption in china, and how that disruption (isolation) will affect the world, I would say 60-120 days. If (as I suggested) we don’t try to contain it, but systematically isolate people, maybe just a slowdown instead of panic.


    Source date (UTC): 2020-02-26 01:14:35 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232474003740164098

    Reply addressees: @LABarbarian17

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232473097879474176


    IN REPLY TO:

    Unknown author

    @LABarbarian17 I have been going through all the plans tonight and it’s the ‘gas station’ metric. When they guy pumping gas asks you about investing you know to get out of the market. When someone you know with gets it and gets out of work, that’s when it’s going to show up everywhere fast.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/1232473097879474176

  • Not me. I’m a hobbit. I’m not going anywhere. I’m gonna munch popcorn while .3%

    Not me. I’m a hobbit. I’m not going anywhere. I’m gonna munch popcorn while .3% of the population dies off because of world ventilator shortage.

    The part I’m worried about is when the zombies come.

    Oh. Wait. They’re already here. They’re called millennials.

    lol


    Source date (UTC): 2020-02-26 01:09:14 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232472657091710976

    Reply addressees: @KTdidntdoit @swingleft

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232471556695064576

  • I was too conservative because I expected the rates outside of China to be lower

    I was too conservative because I expected the rates outside of China to be lower, and they’re coming in the same @ 20% of Spanish Flu’s 10-20% mortality rate, 1% european, 3%+ world population loss. So will cause contraction b/c hospitalization, work disruption, zero inventory. https://twitter.com/curtdoolittle/status/1232465743729442816

  • Flu 2019: ~18m cases, ~200k hospitalizations, ~20k deaths. = ~.1%. Wuhan/Covid-1

    Flu 2019: ~18m cases, ~200k hospitalizations, ~20k deaths. = ~.1%.
    Wuhan/Covid-19 more severe, some organ failure, longer recovery up to 6+wks, and 2.6-3% mortality under care. (Iran 19%? Care?)
    So? High elder mortality, +many people in care and out of economy for far longer.


    Source date (UTC): 2020-02-26 00:41:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232465743729442816

    Reply addressees: @paleofuture

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232385716463656960

  • “The Case Against Reality” No. The Case for Woo Woo Pseudoscience

    “The Case Against Reality” No. The Case for Woo Woo Pseudoscience. https://propertarianism.com/2020/02/25/the-case-against-reality-no-the-case-for-woo-woo-pseudoscience/


    Source date (UTC): 2020-02-25 21:26:48 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232416681919729666

  • “The Case Against Reality” No. The Case for Woo Woo Pseudoscience.

    “The Case Against Reality” The case for woo woo pseudoscience. This is pseudoscientific nonsense. We see actionable reality at actionable scale, using some pretty amazing instrumentation. We ‘predict’ (imagine consequences from) our model of the world, that is not real. That’s simply a lack of discipline. I can and have, and others can and have, explained consciousness – and with recent work it’s not even complicated. I’d like to see the ‘math’ he’s talking about because I’m pretty sure he’s hand-waving. He’s using Truth as an undefined ‘woo woo’ term (hand waving). A fitness payoff (more correctly, return on cost of continuous production) An organism that sees the world as it is (processes unnecessary information) that models the world independent of it’s capacity for action will be out-competed by an organism that reduces the world model necessary for action to the minimum necessary for action, and just competes on what works regardless of any model of the world. Well, this is only true to the point at which organisms can voluntarily cooperate – because there are no competitors to return on cooperation. The camera obscura, and the camera, are a purely physical thing without consciousness. Yet we see what the camera records, without manipulating it. Sure, we can’t see all the same colors. Some of us see more than others. But that’s a difference in resolution of color not a difference in any ‘truth’ we see. “Space and time don’t exist independent of our perception.” Well that’s demonstrably false. Space and time are vocabulary we use to describe what we perceive through sensory information. “There are other consciousnesses out there”. OMG…. I would eat these morons for lunch. https://youtu.be/dd6CQCbk2ro

  • “The Case Against Reality” No. The Case for Woo Woo Pseudoscience.

    “The Case Against Reality” The case for woo woo pseudoscience. This is pseudoscientific nonsense. We see actionable reality at actionable scale, using some pretty amazing instrumentation. We ‘predict’ (imagine consequences from) our model of the world, that is not real. That’s simply a lack of discipline. I can and have, and others can and have, explained consciousness – and with recent work it’s not even complicated. I’d like to see the ‘math’ he’s talking about because I’m pretty sure he’s hand-waving. He’s using Truth as an undefined ‘woo woo’ term (hand waving). A fitness payoff (more correctly, return on cost of continuous production) An organism that sees the world as it is (processes unnecessary information) that models the world independent of it’s capacity for action will be out-competed by an organism that reduces the world model necessary for action to the minimum necessary for action, and just competes on what works regardless of any model of the world. Well, this is only true to the point at which organisms can voluntarily cooperate – because there are no competitors to return on cooperation. The camera obscura, and the camera, are a purely physical thing without consciousness. Yet we see what the camera records, without manipulating it. Sure, we can’t see all the same colors. Some of us see more than others. But that’s a difference in resolution of color not a difference in any ‘truth’ we see. “Space and time don’t exist independent of our perception.” Well that’s demonstrably false. Space and time are vocabulary we use to describe what we perceive through sensory information. “There are other consciousnesses out there”. OMG…. I would eat these morons for lunch. https://youtu.be/dd6CQCbk2ro

  • “It would be cool to watch you debate theologians.”

    —“It would also be cool to watch you debate theologians. Not pansy ones either but the few who are also high level scientists.”— A Friend

    [I]t‘s a very simple argument: What is a theologian claiming: Good and wisdom, or True and demonstrable? What can they testify to? How can they demonstrate it? How can they warranty it? What is their incentive? What are the costs if they lie? Why is the world of science good for man, and the world of religion devolutionary for man? Why is science of man good and the actions of god evil? Why did christians jews and muslims create a dark age? Why are the churches full of our least competent people? Why did the churches fail to reform? Why did Europe abandon christianity? Why did the evangelical movement succeed and why are Americans leaving the church and dividing half secular and half evangelical? What should the church have done when theology was continuously defeated by science and proven false? Why did the church resist literacy of the people. Why did the church resist the printing of the bible in the people’s language? Why did the monastic orders arise if not in response tot he corruption of the church? Why did the church need the vikings to fight the crusades? Was christianity adopted or was it enforced in the past as islam is still enforced today? Did the christians destroy the ancient world, it’s monuments, it’s arts and letters, its academies, its accumulated knowledge, and instead of restoring roman order, aristocracy, literacy, and greek knowledge, drag Europe and the pagan peoples into dark ages? Why is the abrahamic method of deceit used by jews, christians and muslims used again by marxists, postmodernists, and feminist to repeat the same destruction of the old world to destroy the new – this time with false promise of economic and political reward instead of life after death and political reward? Why do theologians use the same arguments as the marxists, postmodernists, and feminists who destroy this world. I have never found a theological argument I cannot defeat. We know too much now. Hence (a) there currently are, and have been, many gods. (b) all gods exist as information, (c) this information exists in the minds of man, (d) this information influences individual and group behavior (e) this behavior is often good, but vulnerable to conquest – which was the purpose of the church. (f) but as a consequence it produces an addiction response when threatened, and is defended by the abrahamic method of deceit rather than just the simple statement “I have faith that if I live my life by jesus’ teachings that my life, the life of those around me, the life of my polity, and of mankind, in this world, and in the next if there is one, will be better than if I did not.” If you must argue your faith. you have none. Faith needs no argument. That is what it means to have faith.

  • “It would be cool to watch you debate theologians.”

    —“It would also be cool to watch you debate theologians. Not pansy ones either but the few who are also high level scientists.”— A Friend

    [I]t‘s a very simple argument: What is a theologian claiming: Good and wisdom, or True and demonstrable? What can they testify to? How can they demonstrate it? How can they warranty it? What is their incentive? What are the costs if they lie? Why is the world of science good for man, and the world of religion devolutionary for man? Why is science of man good and the actions of god evil? Why did christians jews and muslims create a dark age? Why are the churches full of our least competent people? Why did the churches fail to reform? Why did Europe abandon christianity? Why did the evangelical movement succeed and why are Americans leaving the church and dividing half secular and half evangelical? What should the church have done when theology was continuously defeated by science and proven false? Why did the church resist literacy of the people. Why did the church resist the printing of the bible in the people’s language? Why did the monastic orders arise if not in response tot he corruption of the church? Why did the church need the vikings to fight the crusades? Was christianity adopted or was it enforced in the past as islam is still enforced today? Did the christians destroy the ancient world, it’s monuments, it’s arts and letters, its academies, its accumulated knowledge, and instead of restoring roman order, aristocracy, literacy, and greek knowledge, drag Europe and the pagan peoples into dark ages? Why is the abrahamic method of deceit used by jews, christians and muslims used again by marxists, postmodernists, and feminist to repeat the same destruction of the old world to destroy the new – this time with false promise of economic and political reward instead of life after death and political reward? Why do theologians use the same arguments as the marxists, postmodernists, and feminists who destroy this world. I have never found a theological argument I cannot defeat. We know too much now. Hence (a) there currently are, and have been, many gods. (b) all gods exist as information, (c) this information exists in the minds of man, (d) this information influences individual and group behavior (e) this behavior is often good, but vulnerable to conquest – which was the purpose of the church. (f) but as a consequence it produces an addiction response when threatened, and is defended by the abrahamic method of deceit rather than just the simple statement “I have faith that if I live my life by jesus’ teachings that my life, the life of those around me, the life of my polity, and of mankind, in this world, and in the next if there is one, will be better than if I did not.” If you must argue your faith. you have none. Faith needs no argument. That is what it means to have faith.

  • photos_and_videos/TimelinePhotos_dJ9jhts2Ng/87867222_580106869252874_21033796080

    photos_and_videos/TimelinePhotos_dJ9jhts2Ng/87867222_580106869252874_21033796080

    photos_and_videos/TimelinePhotos_dJ9jhts2Ng/87867222_580106869252874_2103379608089919488_o_580106862586208.jpg Update b/c Italian data. Slowly accumulate basics that will run out. Now we will get to learn why ‘really efficient supply chains’ are a really f—king bad idea. As for markets, well, this problem will get solved so think in terms of discovering buying opportunities on those investments that will not be victims of world supply chain contractions.Update b/c Italian data. Slowly accumulate basics that will run out. Now we will get to learn why ‘really efficient supply chains’ are a really f—king bad idea. As for markets, well, this problem will get solved so think in terms of discovering buying opportunities on those investments that will not be victims of world supply chain contractions.


    Source date (UTC): 2020-02-25 20:04:00 UTC