BUFFET JOINS MUST ON AI JOB RISK
Buffet is aggressively confident that AI will devastate employment. AFAIK, this is the same argument Musk has made. If this prediction is true (and at least over the next twenty years it will be) then labor shortage will disappear, immigrants will have been a tragic mistake and burden, and unless you’re in the upper 30% of STEM roles, you’re going to be looking for service work – because your job is going to be destroyed, office buildings will be emptied, home prices will collapse, and incomes will be even more asymmetric than today.
Meanwhile, we’re worried about nonsense like the birth of Skynet. And our government and our economy is organized for a century that has already passed.
Now, do I know how to organize that economy? Well of course. Because the Japanese are already doing it. But japan is a densely populated, high IQ, homogenous, polity, with a high tech economy, and a culture of incremental excellence that defeats the germans only by Asian lower risk tolerance, and ‘kinder gentler’ aesthetics.
We are going to need to radically reform the debt sector, the treasury, taxation, industrialization, transportation, housing, and education, because ***we are going to enter a world where money has no way to work into the economy through occupational compensation. And that ‘breaks everything’.**
Money is a store of time. What happens when very few of us are producing a store of time, and most stores of time are produced by machines, who can only be governed by the ‘smart fraction’, who will increasingly resent that the majority of the population is dependent upon them, and enviously counter-signals them, like white women and minorities, counter signal White, Jewish, and Asian men.
How do we create a Pareto hierarchy and nash distribution in a world where most people are effectively useless for other than providing the few with the ability to work to produce what the rest consume?
I can’t play that out in my head as other than nobilitie and serfs. Though, if the evidence is correct, the percent of the population that would prefer serfdom over market responsibility is … the majority.
-Curt