Curt Doolittle

Theme: Measurement

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548678844 Timestamp) THAT THING WE CALL ‘LOGIC” We can observe our use of logic, math, geometry, just fine, the way we can observe every other one of our senses. But, until the present era would could not inspect the mechanism by which logic, math, geometry function: the detection of differences in constant relations between recursive neural networks. In other words, we lacked instrumentation for observation and measurement at such scales, and a paradigm (logic) for modeling them instrumental (computer science). it also is the most complex phenomenon we have examined which, because it’s heuristic (adaptive). But the fundamentally ability of us to sense differences, particularly in something so informationally dense (concentrated) as speech, is produced by differences in degree and distribution of excitement of neural networks. In other words we sense both constant and inconstant relations, in what babbage correctly called ‘a difference engine’. The logical facility consists in our ability to detect differences in constant relations between a nearly infinite hierarchy of forever-contingent associations. The discipline we call logic attempts to tests whether we ‘speak’ in constant relations. The discipline of formal logic attempts to produce a grammar of categories of constant relations in an effort to test for inconstant relations, claimed to be constant. —“Long before the twentieth century the prevailing opinion was that Euclidean geometry, standard mathematics, and logic did not rest on experience in any obvious way. They were largely presupposed in our empirical work, and it was difficult to see what if anything might disconfirm them. Geometry was a special case and might be handled in different ways that we shall not discuss here. That leaves logic and mathematics.”—S.E.P.

    • Curt

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548818179 Timestamp) —“CURT: QUESTION: THE ECONOMICS OF THE PERCEPTION OF ART?”— Could you recommend any works on Art Theory? I have been looking a bit into Rand’s Romantic Manifesto. (CD: honestly – and this will surprise people – as far as I know (and I know) there aren’t any better. My work is an extension of the RM. And honestly it’s the best most important piece she wrote and in my opinion the only piece with long term value. It influenced me greatly. If you add Gary Becker’s economic analysis of art I think you get the rest of it.) It seems the absence of art (silence, non-action) achieves non-imposition of costs whereas the act of art always imposes costs. (CD: I would say is broken into two statements. 1- Markets require attention seeking – that is how we reduce opportunity costs: density of opportunity and density of attention opportunities. 2- Some commons offer aesthetic attention seeking as an alternative to ‘unordered’, wild or unmaintained, commons. A well manicured park with statues of men of arts and letters is a pretty good place to be. 3- Not all commons are available for attention seeking, or attention-drawing, – and in fact that is what ‘sacred’ means. 4- Not all people possess the ability and training to respect sacred spaces, and they must be protected from such people.) Are all actions of an individual considered art? – No. (CD: I would say that art consists of that which the actor intends to invest in obtaining attention by the expenditure of resources for the provision of aesthetic returns. in other words, we choose to invest in the aesthetics of any given craft (making) for the purpose of attention to the decoration of mind, time and space in all that term’s possible meanings.) Who defines what is art and what is not? – Consumers, viewers, participants. (CD: Um, I would say no, that art is what it is across the spectrum of childish to amateurish, to professional, to iconic, to revolutionary. I would say that craft, design, editorial, and art are very different things. i would say some people engage in fraud that takes advantage of consumer ignorance, and that the value of art is determined by long term market forces (what survives the competition between fashion and ignorance). (CD: many goods are brought to market, those that survive in the market survive, those that don’t do not. What is an attempt at art is defined above. what succeeds at art is determined by a series of markets, the most common of which is REFERENCE BY OTHER ARTIST: by imitation. Art is worthy of perception. – Perception costs are time and energy. (CD: the market determines whether it is worthy of perception, most art is not worthy of perception just like most products are not worthy of consumption. The difference is that it is easier to find a sucker for bad art than it is to find a sucker for a bad car, and far harder to find a sucker for a poorly tailored bit of clothing.) Are all actions of an individual considered art? – No. Who defines what is art and what is not? Consumers, viewers, participants. Art is worthy of perception. Perception costs are time and labor. (CD: We would use a slighting different set of terms I suggest you adopt: Art competes for attention. Attention is a resource, consisting of time and energy. The returns on attention are either there, or they are not. Given that the returns vary from the free association the art causes for the individual, for people who see his possession of it, for public use, and for public ceremonial use, the chances of providing that return are highly dependent upon the craft, design, content, scale, of the piece. What you put in your bathroom, your guest bath, your living room, your office, a court building, and a church hold different standards.) Viewers perceive, recognize and set value on something. Perception and recognition cost time and labor. Similar to how consumers set prices. An act of art doesn’t exist because its up to it is a viewer value judgement. (CD: Hmmmm. Art is a product like any other. Books are a product like any other. tools are products like any other. You must undrestand the language and context of the book to buy and use it for returns. You must understand the possible operations and context of use of a tool to buy and use it for returns. ) (CD: the problem in your reasoning is as usual one of grammar. People create products. Those products serve a function or not (satisfy a market demand). Those products serve sufficient market demands to sell or not (provide marginal value necessary for incentive to exchange). Those exchanges(investments) survive the market for aesthetic competition over time, for the intended market whether individual, group, polity, world). Here is what you might be searching for: Public art of any kind is dependent on shares strategy, values, knowledge, and experience. Lacking those shared properties it is no longer possible to produce art that does not impose a cost instead of provide a return. Everything is open to economic analysis under propertarianism.)

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548789834 Timestamp) WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE? 1) I understand your meaning. 2) That statement is meaningful. 3) That statement is true. “…for the purpose of … ” a) conveying an experience (allegorical) b) conveying a causal relation (contingency) c) conveying a premise for the purpose of deduction (consistency) Note how we conflate these. 1 = a, 2 = b, 3 = c. Truthfulness requires the satisfaction of the market demand for meaning(disambiguation), contingency(opportunity), consistency (deduction).

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548818179 Timestamp) —“CURT: QUESTION: THE ECONOMICS OF THE PERCEPTION OF ART?”— Could you recommend any works on Art Theory? I have been looking a bit into Rand’s Romantic Manifesto. (CD: honestly – and this will surprise people – as far as I know (and I know) there aren’t any better. My work is an extension of the RM. And honestly it’s the best most important piece she wrote and in my opinion the only piece with long term value. It influenced me greatly. If you add Gary Becker’s economic analysis of art I think you get the rest of it.) It seems the absence of art (silence, non-action) achieves non-imposition of costs whereas the act of art always imposes costs. (CD: I would say is broken into two statements. 1- Markets require attention seeking – that is how we reduce opportunity costs: density of opportunity and density of attention opportunities. 2- Some commons offer aesthetic attention seeking as an alternative to ‘unordered’, wild or unmaintained, commons. A well manicured park with statues of men of arts and letters is a pretty good place to be. 3- Not all commons are available for attention seeking, or attention-drawing, – and in fact that is what ‘sacred’ means. 4- Not all people possess the ability and training to respect sacred spaces, and they must be protected from such people.) Are all actions of an individual considered art? – No. (CD: I would say that art consists of that which the actor intends to invest in obtaining attention by the expenditure of resources for the provision of aesthetic returns. in other words, we choose to invest in the aesthetics of any given craft (making) for the purpose of attention to the decoration of mind, time and space in all that term’s possible meanings.) Who defines what is art and what is not? – Consumers, viewers, participants. (CD: Um, I would say no, that art is what it is across the spectrum of childish to amateurish, to professional, to iconic, to revolutionary. I would say that craft, design, editorial, and art are very different things. i would say some people engage in fraud that takes advantage of consumer ignorance, and that the value of art is determined by long term market forces (what survives the competition between fashion and ignorance). (CD: many goods are brought to market, those that survive in the market survive, those that don’t do not. What is an attempt at art is defined above. what succeeds at art is determined by a series of markets, the most common of which is REFERENCE BY OTHER ARTIST: by imitation. Art is worthy of perception. – Perception costs are time and energy. (CD: the market determines whether it is worthy of perception, most art is not worthy of perception just like most products are not worthy of consumption. The difference is that it is easier to find a sucker for bad art than it is to find a sucker for a bad car, and far harder to find a sucker for a poorly tailored bit of clothing.) Are all actions of an individual considered art? – No. Who defines what is art and what is not? Consumers, viewers, participants. Art is worthy of perception. Perception costs are time and labor. (CD: We would use a slighting different set of terms I suggest you adopt: Art competes for attention. Attention is a resource, consisting of time and energy. The returns on attention are either there, or they are not. Given that the returns vary from the free association the art causes for the individual, for people who see his possession of it, for public use, and for public ceremonial use, the chances of providing that return are highly dependent upon the craft, design, content, scale, of the piece. What you put in your bathroom, your guest bath, your living room, your office, a court building, and a church hold different standards.) Viewers perceive, recognize and set value on something. Perception and recognition cost time and labor. Similar to how consumers set prices. An act of art doesn’t exist because its up to it is a viewer value judgement. (CD: Hmmmm. Art is a product like any other. Books are a product like any other. tools are products like any other. You must undrestand the language and context of the book to buy and use it for returns. You must understand the possible operations and context of use of a tool to buy and use it for returns. ) (CD: the problem in your reasoning is as usual one of grammar. People create products. Those products serve a function or not (satisfy a market demand). Those products serve sufficient market demands to sell or not (provide marginal value necessary for incentive to exchange). Those exchanges(investments) survive the market for aesthetic competition over time, for the intended market whether individual, group, polity, world). Here is what you might be searching for: Public art of any kind is dependent on shares strategy, values, knowledge, and experience. Lacking those shared properties it is no longer possible to produce art that does not impose a cost instead of provide a return. Everything is open to economic analysis under propertarianism.)

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548789834 Timestamp) WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE? 1) I understand your meaning. 2) That statement is meaningful. 3) That statement is true. “…for the purpose of … ” a) conveying an experience (allegorical) b) conveying a causal relation (contingency) c) conveying a premise for the purpose of deduction (consistency) Note how we conflate these. 1 = a, 2 = b, 3 = c. Truthfulness requires the satisfaction of the market demand for meaning(disambiguation), contingency(opportunity), consistency (deduction).

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548869369 Timestamp) MORE ON ADAM AND CURT’S DISCUSSION ON METAPHYSICS. (QUESTIONS FOR METAPHYSICISTS) —“…substance…”— Your [Adam] approach is extremely useful in demarcation of legal decidability. It is the physical equivalent of the decidability provided by potential interest and demonstrated interest. So as you taught me recently Aristotle is an exceptional framework for cognition at human scale, and while we may know post human scale both micro and macro, that only assists us in removing falsehood and error from decisions at human scale. We are only capable of acting at human scale and cooperating at human scale…. So Aristotle really did learn about the universe from writing the athenian constitution…. —“…underlies…”– Operationalize that term and … —“Real Metaphysics – How we ought to think. If you are actually thinking, then you are so constrained that you cannot help but think such and such, which we call “metaphysics”. This there is a form of necessity that is neither logical nor physical, but which underlies both.”— I don’t know what metaphysics means – other than ‘Aristotle’s failed attempt to operationalize the brain’. So ‘fitting’ is simply error. And any talk of “metaphysics’ is fitting. We can instead ask, given his ignorance, what categories of phenomenon was he seeking to explain? He could not explain the function of the brain, and the relationship between that lower function, and the means of calculation and communication we call language. (serial, continuous, recursive, disambiguation, resulting in sufficiency for a contract for meaning.) I know the following. 1 – the natural world exists (reality) and persists independent of our thought and action, and follows simple deterministic rules from which complexity arises, including the complexity of near chaos due to the hierarchy of possible operations and near-infinite scale. I know this because I am unwilling to act contrary to that condition in any manner that would test that condition; and I observe this in everyone else; Beyond that is meaningless because only action determines outcomes. 2 – to be able to act in this world and capture calories we have evolved a great deal of memory with which to convert high information density experience into fragmentary (distributed fractional memory) but reconstructable experiences, of lower information density. 3 – to be able to plan a sequence of actions we have evolved categories of constant contingent relations in memory by the addition of more layers of memory. 4 – to be able to communicate we evolved language to communicate stories in serial, continuous, recursive, disambiguation until a contract for meaning has been achieved.) 5 – this language required rules of continuous disambiguation, and so we evolved the natural grammar. 6 – once we had the grammar we could engage in reason, calculation, and eventually computation. 7 – increases in opportunity for exploitation of the natura world (and the human) cause increase scope of communication. T 8 – the greater the correspondence with reality, and the greater the scope, and the more consistent the relations in those categories and grammar, the greater the ability to act to seize calories by which to insulate the mind, emotions, and body from stress and cellular damage (wear and tear). 9 – at some point a competitive advantage in non-correspondence evolved (frauds and deceits) in order for those lacking agency to compete with those possessing agency. 10- this ‘resistance movement’ creates many fictions (non correspondences) to improve political resistance in opposition to economic and military agency Ergo my only interest is not in the correspondence per se but in the use of non-correspondence for the purpose of parasitism and predation.

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1548869369 Timestamp) MORE ON ADAM AND CURT’S DISCUSSION ON METAPHYSICS. (QUESTIONS FOR METAPHYSICISTS) —“…substance…”— Your [Adam] approach is extremely useful in demarcation of legal decidability. It is the physical equivalent of the decidability provided by potential interest and demonstrated interest. So as you taught me recently Aristotle is an exceptional framework for cognition at human scale, and while we may know post human scale both micro and macro, that only assists us in removing falsehood and error from decisions at human scale. We are only capable of acting at human scale and cooperating at human scale…. So Aristotle really did learn about the universe from writing the athenian constitution…. —“…underlies…”– Operationalize that term and … —“Real Metaphysics – How we ought to think. If you are actually thinking, then you are so constrained that you cannot help but think such and such, which we call “metaphysics”. This there is a form of necessity that is neither logical nor physical, but which underlies both.”— I don’t know what metaphysics means – other than ‘Aristotle’s failed attempt to operationalize the brain’. So ‘fitting’ is simply error. And any talk of “metaphysics’ is fitting. We can instead ask, given his ignorance, what categories of phenomenon was he seeking to explain? He could not explain the function of the brain, and the relationship between that lower function, and the means of calculation and communication we call language. (serial, continuous, recursive, disambiguation, resulting in sufficiency for a contract for meaning.) I know the following. 1 – the natural world exists (reality) and persists independent of our thought and action, and follows simple deterministic rules from which complexity arises, including the complexity of near chaos due to the hierarchy of possible operations and near-infinite scale. I know this because I am unwilling to act contrary to that condition in any manner that would test that condition; and I observe this in everyone else; Beyond that is meaningless because only action determines outcomes. 2 – to be able to act in this world and capture calories we have evolved a great deal of memory with which to convert high information density experience into fragmentary (distributed fractional memory) but reconstructable experiences, of lower information density. 3 – to be able to plan a sequence of actions we have evolved categories of constant contingent relations in memory by the addition of more layers of memory. 4 – to be able to communicate we evolved language to communicate stories in serial, continuous, recursive, disambiguation until a contract for meaning has been achieved.) 5 – this language required rules of continuous disambiguation, and so we evolved the natural grammar. 6 – once we had the grammar we could engage in reason, calculation, and eventually computation. 7 – increases in opportunity for exploitation of the natura world (and the human) cause increase scope of communication. T 8 – the greater the correspondence with reality, and the greater the scope, and the more consistent the relations in those categories and grammar, the greater the ability to act to seize calories by which to insulate the mind, emotions, and body from stress and cellular damage (wear and tear). 9 – at some point a competitive advantage in non-correspondence evolved (frauds and deceits) in order for those lacking agency to compete with those possessing agency. 10- this ‘resistance movement’ creates many fictions (non correspondences) to improve political resistance in opposition to economic and military agency Ergo my only interest is not in the correspondence per se but in the use of non-correspondence for the purpose of parasitism and predation.

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1549046949 Timestamp) (in progress) TALEB’S ARGUMENTS A1 – Categories(and paradigms) we find useful (predictable) consist of regularities (marginal indifferences in determinism). A2 – Within those frames (paradigms) variation is noise not signal. A3 – Outliers are unpredictable (within any given frame (Paradigm)) because we lack and do not track, and may not possibly track, information that will cause outliers (irregularities). A4 – Singular or Rare Outliers are more determinant (signal) than all Regularities (noise). A5 – Information necessary to predict an outlier from within a given frame (paradigm) increases logarithmically. A6 – Prediction then requires attempts to break the system in order to identify candidate outliers. A7 – Returns on outliers (signal) then are disproportionate to returns on regularities (noise). A8 – Limits to prediction are permanent constraints. A9 – investment in risk mitigation is preferable to extreme growth (caution in policy). (TRUE) B1 – Any system subject to stresses that do not break it, will result in stronger systems. (any biological organism will divert resources to stresses(durability/risk) rather than growth(fragility/opportunity)). (TRUE) C1 – Via Negativa (falsification, stress) not justification (via-positiva) provides empirical knowledge (survivability of knowledge in market competition.) (TRUE) D1 – Military epistemology is the most scientific because of the risk and warranty ( TRUE) E1 – Because of various cognitive biases, we do not know ourselves if we speak truthfully without ‘skin in the game’ (warranty). (TRUE) ALSO: a) These constitute a restatement of scientific epistemology: Popper’s critical rationalism and Critical preference.) b) these constitute an investment strategy we call ‘contrarian’) c) this extends contrarianism to making small bets on dramatic outliers. TIDBIT Nassim discovered this when writing investment models. I discovered this when writing AI’s for games. Same problem. The problem is the information necessary to eliminate determinism rapidly exceeds the information available to the system. Thus producing noise within deterministic limits. D1 – “White” people’s academy produces intellectuals (honest, intelligent) yet idiots (at personal scale), where the Fat Tony’s of the world (cunning) outperform them (at personal scale)” REVERSAL: D1R – the purpose of greco roman education was to produce teachers, administrators judges, governors. The purpose of church (european) was to produce teachers, administrators, judges, governors. The purpose of enlightenment education was to produce teachers, administrators, business people, officers, judges, and governors. The purpose of Chinese education was to produce teachers, administrators, judges. Both east and west had martial, administrative, and labor classes (tripartism). Modern and Ancient europe, china/korea/japan, were able to produce good (low corruption) government. The Byzantines were able to do so. The church wrote it’s own history but it was terribly corrupt. But the semitic world could never produce a high trust polity or bureaucracy. Whereas germanic peoples above the hajnal line produced hight trust POLITIES at every level. D2R – Of the supposed islamic accomplishments, all but a tiny fraction were produced by the Persians (iranians, caucasians). DR3 – It is one thing to sit in the axis of four contentinents, the med, red sea/nile, persian gulf, caspian, black sea, and tigris-euprates, and tax trade, yet produce no contribution to civilization. And quite another thing to live at the ends of the continent at the limits of the bronze age, and develop the very opposite of the middle eastern countries: Sovereignty, Reciprocity, Truth, Duty, Rule of Law, continuous technological evolution, higher calorie diets, higher agrarian productivity. the corporation, universal Commons, high trust, naturalism, reason, empiricism, science. markets in all aspects of life. Writing is the result of taxation, and taxation the result of trade, and trade the result of the combination of territorial obstacles (resistance) fed by waterways (highways). Information results from that same trade. But what do different cultures do with that information? The middle east studied nonsense. Even their so called astronomy was merely for the purpose of astrology. Why coudlnt’ the middle east survive into modernity? Demographics. SUMMARY Reflecting upon Aesop’s Fable “Hermes and the Arabs” GROUP DIFFERENCES 1 – The principle difference between ethnic groups is the size of the underclass in relation to the pareto-effective class. 2 – the “pareto effective class” refers to those able to organize a population by means of incentives, to produce goods services or information sufficient to provide sufficient returns to maintain and adapt that voluntary organization by means of incentives. 2 – The potential prosperity of a group is determined by the size of the genetic underclass (below 93/95) in relation to the genetic middle class (above what we call 106 – the ability to repair a machine, or to learn by self guided reading of instructions.). 3 – Continuous reduction of the relative underclasses is necessary to remain a comparative advantage without dependence upon the luck of technological innovation (low handing fruit problem.) 4- The decline is not linear but stepped geometrically, with 95/97 creating a cliff effect. The improvement is not linear but stepped, with each 3pts to 7pts or so providing geometric returns. 5 – All population groups taught naturalism and operationalism (science) will increase in ability, by as much as a standard deviation, but all populations scale equally, retaining the same comparative advantage. 1- IQ is but one of at least six personality traits that appear to originate in physical structures and processes in the brain: particularly reward systems on the one hand, and physical density(white and grey) and organization(compartmental vs integrated) on the other, and particularly the distinction between the division of labor of the hemispheres (predator-actor) prey(defender), and the female(solipsistic) vs male bias (autistic). 2- IQ measures an aggregate of different functions making use of the same cortical layers and therefore which tend to scale together, but which are individually measurable, and are measured by statisticians. 3- IQ measures rate of pattern recognition and rate of learning across those functions. 4- IQ may permit creativity but does permit reduction in systemic error, rent, parasitism, and predation. 5- Demonstrated IQ can be artificially improved through training but will eventually normalize (under market pressure) 6- Demonstrated IQ does slowly increase in most of us at about one point every three years (assuming its exercise) – the cumulative effect over time which is not insignificant. 7- Demonstrated IQ is affected by at least g (general intelligence), short term memory, general knowledge, and mal-incentive to defend prior investments, in addition to three categories of cognitive biases: memory, decision, and social. 8- Demonstrated IQ in the Academy grants one access to non-market activity, in exchange for not seizing opportunities. (long game). 9- Populations that select for Demonstrated IQ for non-market activities can produce bureaucracies by doing under sufficient genetic homogeneity (trust). 10- Heterogeneous low IQ polities cannot produce sufficient returns to fund a sufficient body of incorruptible extra-market personnel because market demand for corruption is impossible to exit (india, south america, middle east). 11- The only possibility is the increase in the middle class which exports non-corruption since everyone is a potential customer, just as in free-marriage societies everyone is a potential relative, just as in free law societies, everyone is a potential appellant. just as in classical liberal societies since everyone is a potential voter. In other words, the middle eastern peoples destroyed every great civilization of the ancient world, and continues to attempt to destroy ours. Taleb is actually telling us we should act like middle easterners, despite their failure over three thousand years, to compete with the agrarians, their metals, and their tools, and their TRUST OF ONE ANOTHER. ETHNIC ORIGINS Northern Europeans are north west asians from north of the black sea. (slav, finn, scandinavian, germanic, celtic, italic, atlantic.) South eastern Europeans are either from west of the black sea (old europe) or anatolia (hittites etc). Iranic (caucuses) are south west asians. Turkics (mongolians) are eastern west asians) (Europeans have the greatest neoteny other than far east asia.) The Assyrians were west asians. The Phoenicians were west asians (persian gulf area). The Persians were west asians. The jews and palestinians are closely related to the palestinians and the arabs. (Arguably the jews a gone, and exist only as mixed race peoples). The Arabs are afro-asiatics and speak an afro asiatic language. (horn of africa/red sea,yemen) The arabs consist of north and southern distributions. The north africans are west asians. The africans (at least three major branches) are africans. PRODUCTIVITY ONLY REASON NOT TO GUT TALEB BEFORE NOW WAS UTILITARIAN. Now it’s time to take him down. Let moly make the correlative argument and I’ll make the causal argument and explain what taleb got wrong, why his project is a failure, and why he writes as he does in the grammars that he does, and why he ridicules the people that he does.

    I am going to enjoy increasing the scope of my reputation by gutting Taleb’s pseudoscience, and in doing so explain why a certain tribe commits so much evil.

    I wanna talk to Molly about doing a smack down on Taleb. The community would benefit from this discussion. I would like to cover taleb’s original insight, and how he is applying it outside it’s limits, and in doing so largely deflate his IQ position, illustrate why he’s just talking pseudoscience to justify his racial biases, while reinforcing his via-negativa argument as a general rule. It’s not that difficult but it will be better to have molly’s popularity and my arguments together because they will flatten Taleb on this issue. Can anyone contact someone who can try to arrange this?

    (From Twitter: putting an end to Nassim Taleb’s insight, edited a bit for clarity) Nassim (all), IQ describes a curve. East and west are superior for having culled underclass reproduction, while center have failed to cull underclass reproduction. So, to reverse your statement: “I can understand loving one’s people, and apologizing for one’s people, but denying the science is quite sinister.” Other ‘peoples’ are ‘inferior’ (meaning poorer) socially, economically, politically, and militarily because of Pareto problem created by the size of their lower classes in relation to their upper classes. Hence continuous middle eastern failure under underclass religion and rule. Despite the wealth of possessing the optimum trade routes, the middle east was unable to fix this problem. Stephan is Correct. IQ (meaning, the relative size of genetic classes as measured by rate of learning), is the MOST important factor in group wealth. PERIOD. This is because trust and trustworthiness increase in concert with cognitive ability. Nassim: Your ‘admiration’ for a certain class of individuals is unscientific as well: they and their behavior are why no large corporations, and only smaller (inefficient) organizations. Our ‘clerical’ education and society, is why we HAVE large (efficient) corporations. In other words YOU ARE DESPERATELY WRONG. Relative wealth = demographics. Nassim, so if you hadn’t taken up this particular issue it wouldn’t have made me pay attention to, and understood, the catastrophic error in your conflation of individual speculators and the political orders in which wealth potential of such people is possible. YOU ARE WRONG. Nassim: The west, despite beginning with Aryanism (sovereignty and tort law), and Aristotelianism (empiricism), SURVIVED the first wave of Semiticism (Abrahamism) because of genetic reserves. Every other civilization that has tolerated Semiticism has been destroyed by the continuous expansion of the underclasses.We are in the process of not-surviving the second wave of Semiticism. Nassim: So I just unfortunately realized that your FatTony et all, sensibility is just Semitic hatred of high trust peoples who produce their extraordinary wealth by the production of COMMONS. And this insight, if widely understood will destroy your reputation even further.

    You think that our high-trust people, are ‘suckers’ when it is precisely that social order and those values that allow us to produce the commons that make high returns possible, while those historical peoples you (out of racial bias) favor, were NEVER ABLE TO, because of ‘petty profiting’ that you favor.

    RE: Nassim Nicholas Taleb ON HIS IQ RANT I will still take this debate, but not interwoven with twitter-spam. (a) g measures what we attempt to measure (b) chance of success corresponds to a distribution of traits, plus the utility of those traits, in service of the population under the bell curve within 1 SD. Those of us with exceptional abilities favor working with our region of the bell curve – puzzles – that are of INDIRECT value rather than DIRECT value. WE HAVE KNOWN THIS FOR DECADES. Lastly, we go to university etc to avoid the marketplace (‘work’). This is the value of higher education: to provide a non-market means of identifying selection. In this sense your criticism is correct. In the sense that you’re criticizing IQ measurements, you’re WRONG …PERIOD. All of this is OLD NEWS. If you want to encourage people to prosper by pairing their skills to those necessary to serve the market that they understand, then yes. If you mean very bright people are fooled by sophism, innumeracy, pseudoscience – then yes. But likewise, just as it has taken you many years to migrate from the positivist search for mathematical discovery of units of informational prediction, to the demand for warranty of due diligence (falsification), you too are vulnerable to innumeracy, pseudoscience, ‘literature’.

    TALEB, LIKE SOROS AND ROTHBARD TELLS A HALF TRUTH TO MASK THE SAME PROFOUND LIE. They hate white people and white civilization. They gleefully treat our high trust as an opportunity to make us victims of their lack of it. They profit from our trust. They ridicule the very people who DO NOT SEIZE immoral opportunities as fools. Rather than this being the very reason why we have prosperity and they do not.

    The people of truth vs the people of lies.

    LET ME MAKE IT CLEAR: “TALEB’S PROJECT FAILED.” And it failed because he is a racist against whites, and that is the origin of his entire argument. He hates the moral people that he profited from scamming.

    REGARDING TALEB’S IDENTITY CRISIS Druz, Jew, Syrian, Jordanian, Palestinian, … they’re ALMOST as close to each other as northern europeans are to each other. Look: … NORTH … South Caucasus, Anatolian, Iranian (North West Asians) … <-overlap with-> … CENTER … Mesopotamians, Levantines (South west eurasians) … <-overlap with-> … SOUTH … North Semites, South Semites ( middle easterns: … horn of africa, yemen, red sea, arabian peninsula) Ashkenazi went thru a bottleneck after selecting for literacy, and they seem to have saved their rabbis first, every time they were punished for usury and conspiracy with the state against the people, and they consistently pushed reproduction up thru the rabbis – and that’s all it took. Adaptation may be slow but expression of bottlenecks (eugenics) is not. Six generations and miracles can happen.

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1549111936 Timestamp) I am getting increasingly comfortable with generating ‘a statistic’ in the 30-50M range. And that’s probably what’s necessary.

  • Curt Doolittle updated his status.

    (FB 1549046949 Timestamp) (in progress) TALEB’S ARGUMENTS A1 – Categories(and paradigms) we find useful (predictable) consist of regularities (marginal indifferences in determinism). A2 – Within those frames (paradigms) variation is noise not signal. A3 – Outliers are unpredictable (within any given frame (Paradigm)) because we lack and do not track, and may not possibly track, information that will cause outliers (irregularities). A4 – Singular or Rare Outliers are more determinant (signal) than all Regularities (noise). A5 – Information necessary to predict an outlier from within a given frame (paradigm) increases logarithmically. A6 – Prediction then requires attempts to break the system in order to identify candidate outliers. A7 – Returns on outliers (signal) then are disproportionate to returns on regularities (noise). A8 – Limits to prediction are permanent constraints. A9 – investment in risk mitigation is preferable to extreme growth (caution in policy). (TRUE) B1 – Any system subject to stresses that do not break it, will result in stronger systems. (any biological organism will divert resources to stresses(durability/risk) rather than growth(fragility/opportunity)). (TRUE) C1 – Via Negativa (falsification, stress) not justification (via-positiva) provides empirical knowledge (survivability of knowledge in market competition.) (TRUE) D1 – Military epistemology is the most scientific because of the risk and warranty ( TRUE) E1 – Because of various cognitive biases, we do not know ourselves if we speak truthfully without ‘skin in the game’ (warranty). (TRUE) ALSO: a) These constitute a restatement of scientific epistemology: Popper’s critical rationalism and Critical preference.) b) these constitute an investment strategy we call ‘contrarian’) c) this extends contrarianism to making small bets on dramatic outliers. TIDBIT Nassim discovered this when writing investment models. I discovered this when writing AI’s for games. Same problem. The problem is the information necessary to eliminate determinism rapidly exceeds the information available to the system. Thus producing noise within deterministic limits. D1 – “White” people’s academy produces intellectuals (honest, intelligent) yet idiots (at personal scale), where the Fat Tony’s of the world (cunning) outperform them (at personal scale)” REVERSAL: D1R – the purpose of greco roman education was to produce teachers, administrators judges, governors. The purpose of church (european) was to produce teachers, administrators, judges, governors. The purpose of enlightenment education was to produce teachers, administrators, business people, officers, judges, and governors. The purpose of Chinese education was to produce teachers, administrators, judges. Both east and west had martial, administrative, and labor classes (tripartism). Modern and Ancient europe, china/korea/japan, were able to produce good (low corruption) government. The Byzantines were able to do so. The church wrote it’s own history but it was terribly corrupt. But the semitic world could never produce a high trust polity or bureaucracy. Whereas germanic peoples above the hajnal line produced hight trust POLITIES at every level. D2R – Of the supposed islamic accomplishments, all but a tiny fraction were produced by the Persians (iranians, caucasians). DR3 – It is one thing to sit in the axis of four contentinents, the med, red sea/nile, persian gulf, caspian, black sea, and tigris-euprates, and tax trade, yet produce no contribution to civilization. And quite another thing to live at the ends of the continent at the limits of the bronze age, and develop the very opposite of the middle eastern countries: Sovereignty, Reciprocity, Truth, Duty, Rule of Law, continuous technological evolution, higher calorie diets, higher agrarian productivity. the corporation, universal Commons, high trust, naturalism, reason, empiricism, science. markets in all aspects of life. Writing is the result of taxation, and taxation the result of trade, and trade the result of the combination of territorial obstacles (resistance) fed by waterways (highways). Information results from that same trade. But what do different cultures do with that information? The middle east studied nonsense. Even their so called astronomy was merely for the purpose of astrology. Why coudlnt’ the middle east survive into modernity? Demographics. SUMMARY Reflecting upon Aesop’s Fable “Hermes and the Arabs” GROUP DIFFERENCES 1 – The principle difference between ethnic groups is the size of the underclass in relation to the pareto-effective class. 2 – the “pareto effective class” refers to those able to organize a population by means of incentives, to produce goods services or information sufficient to provide sufficient returns to maintain and adapt that voluntary organization by means of incentives. 2 – The potential prosperity of a group is determined by the size of the genetic underclass (below 93/95) in relation to the genetic middle class (above what we call 106 – the ability to repair a machine, or to learn by self guided reading of instructions.). 3 – Continuous reduction of the relative underclasses is necessary to remain a comparative advantage without dependence upon the luck of technological innovation (low handing fruit problem.) 4- The decline is not linear but stepped geometrically, with 95/97 creating a cliff effect. The improvement is not linear but stepped, with each 3pts to 7pts or so providing geometric returns. 5 – All population groups taught naturalism and operationalism (science) will increase in ability, by as much as a standard deviation, but all populations scale equally, retaining the same comparative advantage. 1- IQ is but one of at least six personality traits that appear to originate in physical structures and processes in the brain: particularly reward systems on the one hand, and physical density(white and grey) and organization(compartmental vs integrated) on the other, and particularly the distinction between the division of labor of the hemispheres (predator-actor) prey(defender), and the female(solipsistic) vs male bias (autistic). 2- IQ measures an aggregate of different functions making use of the same cortical layers and therefore which tend to scale together, but which are individually measurable, and are measured by statisticians. 3- IQ measures rate of pattern recognition and rate of learning across those functions. 4- IQ may permit creativity but does permit reduction in systemic error, rent, parasitism, and predation. 5- Demonstrated IQ can be artificially improved through training but will eventually normalize (under market pressure) 6- Demonstrated IQ does slowly increase in most of us at about one point every three years (assuming its exercise) – the cumulative effect over time which is not insignificant. 7- Demonstrated IQ is affected by at least g (general intelligence), short term memory, general knowledge, and mal-incentive to defend prior investments, in addition to three categories of cognitive biases: memory, decision, and social. 8- Demonstrated IQ in the Academy grants one access to non-market activity, in exchange for not seizing opportunities. (long game). 9- Populations that select for Demonstrated IQ for non-market activities can produce bureaucracies by doing under sufficient genetic homogeneity (trust). 10- Heterogeneous low IQ polities cannot produce sufficient returns to fund a sufficient body of incorruptible extra-market personnel because market demand for corruption is impossible to exit (india, south america, middle east). 11- The only possibility is the increase in the middle class which exports non-corruption since everyone is a potential customer, just as in free-marriage societies everyone is a potential relative, just as in free law societies, everyone is a potential appellant. just as in classical liberal societies since everyone is a potential voter. In other words, the middle eastern peoples destroyed every great civilization of the ancient world, and continues to attempt to destroy ours. Taleb is actually telling us we should act like middle easterners, despite their failure over three thousand years, to compete with the agrarians, their metals, and their tools, and their TRUST OF ONE ANOTHER. ETHNIC ORIGINS Northern Europeans are north west asians from north of the black sea. (slav, finn, scandinavian, germanic, celtic, italic, atlantic.) South eastern Europeans are either from west of the black sea (old europe) or anatolia (hittites etc). Iranic (caucuses) are south west asians. Turkics (mongolians) are eastern west asians) (Europeans have the greatest neoteny other than far east asia.) The Assyrians were west asians. The Phoenicians were west asians (persian gulf area). The Persians were west asians. The jews and palestinians are closely related to the palestinians and the arabs. (Arguably the jews a gone, and exist only as mixed race peoples). The Arabs are afro-asiatics and speak an afro asiatic language. (horn of africa/red sea,yemen) The arabs consist of north and southern distributions. The north africans are west asians. The africans (at least three major branches) are africans. PRODUCTIVITY ONLY REASON NOT TO GUT TALEB BEFORE NOW WAS UTILITARIAN. Now it’s time to take him down. Let moly make the correlative argument and I’ll make the causal argument and explain what taleb got wrong, why his project is a failure, and why he writes as he does in the grammars that he does, and why he ridicules the people that he does.

    I am going to enjoy increasing the scope of my reputation by gutting Taleb’s pseudoscience, and in doing so explain why a certain tribe commits so much evil.

    I wanna talk to Molly about doing a smack down on Taleb. The community would benefit from this discussion. I would like to cover taleb’s original insight, and how he is applying it outside it’s limits, and in doing so largely deflate his IQ position, illustrate why he’s just talking pseudoscience to justify his racial biases, while reinforcing his via-negativa argument as a general rule. It’s not that difficult but it will be better to have molly’s popularity and my arguments together because they will flatten Taleb on this issue. Can anyone contact someone who can try to arrange this?

    (From Twitter: putting an end to Nassim Taleb’s insight, edited a bit for clarity) Nassim (all), IQ describes a curve. East and west are superior for having culled underclass reproduction, while center have failed to cull underclass reproduction. So, to reverse your statement: “I can understand loving one’s people, and apologizing for one’s people, but denying the science is quite sinister.” Other ‘peoples’ are ‘inferior’ (meaning poorer) socially, economically, politically, and militarily because of Pareto problem created by the size of their lower classes in relation to their upper classes. Hence continuous middle eastern failure under underclass religion and rule. Despite the wealth of possessing the optimum trade routes, the middle east was unable to fix this problem. Stephan is Correct. IQ (meaning, the relative size of genetic classes as measured by rate of learning), is the MOST important factor in group wealth. PERIOD. This is because trust and trustworthiness increase in concert with cognitive ability. Nassim: Your ‘admiration’ for a certain class of individuals is unscientific as well: they and their behavior are why no large corporations, and only smaller (inefficient) organizations. Our ‘clerical’ education and society, is why we HAVE large (efficient) corporations. In other words YOU ARE DESPERATELY WRONG. Relative wealth = demographics. Nassim, so if you hadn’t taken up this particular issue it wouldn’t have made me pay attention to, and understood, the catastrophic error in your conflation of individual speculators and the political orders in which wealth potential of such people is possible. YOU ARE WRONG. Nassim: The west, despite beginning with Aryanism (sovereignty and tort law), and Aristotelianism (empiricism), SURVIVED the first wave of Semiticism (Abrahamism) because of genetic reserves. Every other civilization that has tolerated Semiticism has been destroyed by the continuous expansion of the underclasses.We are in the process of not-surviving the second wave of Semiticism. Nassim: So I just unfortunately realized that your FatTony et all, sensibility is just Semitic hatred of high trust peoples who produce their extraordinary wealth by the production of COMMONS. And this insight, if widely understood will destroy your reputation even further.

    You think that our high-trust people, are ‘suckers’ when it is precisely that social order and those values that allow us to produce the commons that make high returns possible, while those historical peoples you (out of racial bias) favor, were NEVER ABLE TO, because of ‘petty profiting’ that you favor.

    RE: Nassim Nicholas Taleb ON HIS IQ RANT I will still take this debate, but not interwoven with twitter-spam. (a) g measures what we attempt to measure (b) chance of success corresponds to a distribution of traits, plus the utility of those traits, in service of the population under the bell curve within 1 SD. Those of us with exceptional abilities favor working with our region of the bell curve – puzzles – that are of INDIRECT value rather than DIRECT value. WE HAVE KNOWN THIS FOR DECADES. Lastly, we go to university etc to avoid the marketplace (‘work’). This is the value of higher education: to provide a non-market means of identifying selection. In this sense your criticism is correct. In the sense that you’re criticizing IQ measurements, you’re WRONG …PERIOD. All of this is OLD NEWS. If you want to encourage people to prosper by pairing their skills to those necessary to serve the market that they understand, then yes. If you mean very bright people are fooled by sophism, innumeracy, pseudoscience – then yes. But likewise, just as it has taken you many years to migrate from the positivist search for mathematical discovery of units of informational prediction, to the demand for warranty of due diligence (falsification), you too are vulnerable to innumeracy, pseudoscience, ‘literature’.

    TALEB, LIKE SOROS AND ROTHBARD TELLS A HALF TRUTH TO MASK THE SAME PROFOUND LIE. They hate white people and white civilization. They gleefully treat our high trust as an opportunity to make us victims of their lack of it. They profit from our trust. They ridicule the very people who DO NOT SEIZE immoral opportunities as fools. Rather than this being the very reason why we have prosperity and they do not.

    The people of truth vs the people of lies.

    LET ME MAKE IT CLEAR: “TALEB’S PROJECT FAILED.” And it failed because he is a racist against whites, and that is the origin of his entire argument. He hates the moral people that he profited from scamming.

    REGARDING TALEB’S IDENTITY CRISIS Druz, Jew, Syrian, Jordanian, Palestinian, … they’re ALMOST as close to each other as northern europeans are to each other. Look: … NORTH … South Caucasus, Anatolian, Iranian (North West Asians) … <-overlap with-> … CENTER … Mesopotamians, Levantines (South west eurasians) … <-overlap with-> … SOUTH … North Semites, South Semites ( middle easterns: … horn of africa, yemen, red sea, arabian peninsula) Ashkenazi went thru a bottleneck after selecting for literacy, and they seem to have saved their rabbis first, every time they were punished for usury and conspiracy with the state against the people, and they consistently pushed reproduction up thru the rabbis – and that’s all it took. Adaptation may be slow but expression of bottlenecks (eugenics) is not. Six generations and miracles can happen.