Theme: Measurement

  • MORE FALSIFYING OF TALEB’S NONSENSE ON IQ Kareem: I’ve addressed this issue for

    MORE FALSIFYING OF TALEB’S NONSENSE ON IQ
    Kareem:
    I’ve addressed this issue for years now, and it resurfaces with every generation of college grads. One of the virtues of the internet and social media is that ideas—good and bad—become widely accessible.

    Unfortunately, bad ideas have extraordinary durability, much like rumor, gossip, bad faith, undermining, and sedition.

    Why? Because post-1960 college education trains people to be witty and utilitarian in persuasion, not smart, true, or moral. (and they are trying to redefine moral as infantilizing out of responsibility rather than ‘adulting’ into responsibility.

    You might already understand the differences in mathematical, algorithmic, physical, operational, and verbal reducibility—the limits of each, especially mathematics. Certainly Wolfram is trying to address the first two.

    However, you may not be aware of the intuitionistic movement in mathematics, the operational movement in physics, the praxeological(Operational) movement in economics, or the operationalist movement in psychology. These are all responses—albeit only marginally successful—to the challenge of explaining the limits of mathematics, logic, and philosophy.

    As an operational epistemologist, I require that a claim not only reflect correlation in data but also be constructible from first principles (think universal laws at each scale of emergent complexity that overcome entropy) – each of those sales reflecting the disciplines.

    I posted a similar response yesterday, but as you can see from my archives, I’ve debated this issue with Taleb for years. He has blocked me on every platform because of it.

    Why? Because he has an agenda—a career built on that agenda—which is not only a malinvestment, but false, immoral and unethical. His attacks on IQ are just another attempt to perpetuate that malinvestment and failure – a failure which undermines his important insight of black swan events on one hand, and mandelbrot’s understanding of mathematical and computational representation.

    LINK TO THE FOLLOWING POST
    https://t.co/D02Jl5EByP

    TEXT OF THE POST

    Q: Curt—”Excuse me if you’ve already expounded upon this, but what are your thoughts on Taleb’s (@nntaleb) argument?”–
    Joe Waldmann @J58039716

    A: I’ve written about this, made a video, argued with Taleb, and been blocked by him on every platform. So yes, I’ve expounded on it. 😉

    Here’s a rough summary, with links below:

    Taleb’s Sophistry:
    He’s employing the same sophistry he used in his commentary on the stock market. He defends individuals who act with lower ethical standards, doing so as part of his “ethnic defense.” The character Fat Tony, for example, is not moral. Neither is Taleb. Their strategies rely on exploiting high-trust cultures where the majority act morally—making their amoral behavior profitable. This dynamic highlights why the West is particularly vulnerable to Semitic deceptions. Taleb resides in New York, within one of the least moral demographics in the most moral country capable of the highest capital formation, not in the Middle East, where such ethics are ordinary but capital formation is impossible.

    The Graph:
    Taleb’s argument centers on individual returns on intelligence, not the returns on the distribution of intelligence within a polity. This reflects his bias toward individualism and tribalism over European commons-oriented thinking.

    Key Points:

    (a) Conscientiousness outweighs intelligence for wealth accumulation, regardless of IQ.

    (b) Intelligence grants access to novelty and increasing scales of complexity, but its primary benefits are error reduction and risk mitigation—not necessarily creativity or innovation.

    (c) Intelligence is most effective in producing returns within a population whose members are within a certain percentage of your ability. (This might require further explanation, but it’s intuitive once understood.)

    (d) The higher one’s intelligence, the harder it is to create marginal differences with peers, even with conscientiousness and extraordinary work capacity.

    (e) Highly intelligent individuals rely less on wealth accumulation because they already possess significant “intelligence capital.”

    (f) Ergo, diminishing marginal returns on intelligence arise from decreasing incentives, smaller audiences capable of engaging with your knowledge, and fewer opportunities for direct application. (Ideas must be simplified as they cascade through populations of declining comprehension.)

    LINKS TO MORE MATERIAL:
    Video and Script:
    https://t.co/8VrdgNqMez

    Response to @jollyheretic:
    Intelligence in evolutionary context:
    https://t.co/GfF2Ud0IKj
    Incentives behind Taleb’s IQ denial:
    https://t.co/vmMg9dxtk5
    Taleb’s campaign of immorality:
    https://t.co/vcWE6m1gi7

    More Material:
    Comments on Weinstein Brothers and Taleb:
    https://t.co/rIi5cb9rft
    To Nassim Taleb re: A Decline in Violence is Not a Decline in Predation – But A Shift:
    https://t.co/2ExVpMsXla
    Limits of 20th-Century Thought:
    https://t.co/iNu5GW6RW9

    There’s more, but this should suffice.
    CHEERS
    -CD

    Reply addressees: @kareem_carr


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-20 18:35:35 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1881410259228725248

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1881356963864596558

  • Rebuilding wasn’t so much necessary as continuing the process of increasing prec

    Rebuilding wasn’t so much necessary as continuing the process of increasing precision given the increases in knowledge in and across domains. The resulting simplicity was the surprise.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-19 03:04:03 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1880813443235946830

    Reply addressees: @PhilosophyOnX

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1880768166768566276

  • Evasion of responsibility for defense of the private and common. So ‘looking the

    Evasion of responsibility for defense of the private and common. So ‘looking the other way’ is yes, hard to measure. Lawfare to undermine it is however very easy to measure, which is why we have to outlaw it.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-17 19:50:08 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1880341856783069361

    Reply addressees: @Father_Speaking

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1880334635676418195

  • Start here: Though you may be better off searching for reports that professional

    Start here: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/home

    Though you may be better off searching for reports that professionals have made from the data – its easier. Worse, so much crime is increasingly unreported, especially in major cities. Some of us do this for a living. Strange why you would…


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-11 06:50:52 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1877971421349204152

    Reply addressees: @prodicus @PopCorby @nobodyshares @Kojak_Strangler @RichardDawkins

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1877968632447377594

  • Start here: Though you may be better off searching for reports that professional

    Start here: https://t.co/RDt0oP0JUS

    Though you may be better off searching for reports that professionals have made from the data – its easier. Worse, so much crime is increasingly unreported, especially in major cities. Some of us do this for a living. Strange why you would have a strong opinion if you dont know the data.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-11 06:50:52 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1877971421210783744

  • Accusation without argument. And I am quite certain I can defeat any such argume

    Accusation without argument. And I am quite certain I can defeat any such argument. It’s not as though Hoffman lacks critics.
    The mathematics consist of simplified simulations not proofs. That said that’s not the point: the reversal of the primacy of existence over experience is.…


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-04 14:39:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1875552681219203075

    Reply addressees: @MichaelADominy1 @drawveloper

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1875544186851881353

  • A DIFFERENCE ENGINE? OR A PREDICTION ENGINE? RELATIONS EPISODES (INDICES) COMPAR

    A DIFFERENCE ENGINE? OR A PREDICTION ENGINE?

    RELATIONS

    EPISODES (INDICES)

    COMPARISONS (TRANSFORMATIONS, OPERATIONS)

    FIELD

    DIMENSION

    PARADIGM

    GRAMMAR

    LOGIC MEANS PREDICTION

    The difference between correct inference and correct prediction lies primarily in context, scope, and explicitness of the reasoning process. At their core, both involve the brain’s predictive mechanisms, as the neural structure fundamentally operates on associative and predictive processing. However, their roles and applications differ in significant ways.

    1. Definitions

    Correct Inference:

    Definition: A logical conclusion drawn from existing premises or relations, consistent with the rules of a defined system.

    Key Features:Explicit reasoning process.
    Relies on known information (premises) and applies transformations or rules.
    Often operates in closed, deterministic systems (e.g., deduction, formal logic).
    Output: A conclusion that must follow logically from the premises.

    Example: If all humans are mortal and Socrates is a human, then Socrates is mortal.

    Correct Prediction:

    Definition: A forecast about future states or outcomes based on patterns, relations, or probabilistic models.

    Key Features:Implicit or explicit reasoning process.
    Uses incomplete or probabilistic information.
    Operates in open systems with potential variability or uncertainty.
    Output: An anticipated result that may or may not occur as expected.

    Example: Based on dark clouds, predicting that it will rain.

    2. Neural Basis of Inference and Prediction

    The neural structure of the brain is fundamentally predictive:

    Associative Learning:Neural pathways form by strengthening connections between co-occurring stimuli or actions and outcomes.
    Example: Associating a certain smell with food.

    Wayfinding and Spatial Cognition:The brain predicts paths and outcomes based on spatial and environmental cues.
    Example: Navigating a forest by anticipating landmarks.

    How This Relates:

    Inference: When premises and relations are clearly structured, the brain’s predictive mechanisms process them deterministically.

    Prediction: In less structured or open systems, the brain generalizes patterns to anticipate outcomes probabilistically.

    In essence, inference is a subset of prediction, applied in highly structured contexts.

    3. Key Differences

    AspectCorrect InferenceCorrect PredictionSystem TypeOperates in closed, rule-defined systems.Operates in open, probabilistic systems.Input RequirementsRequires explicit premises and clear rules.Requires patterns and probabilistic data.OutputA deterministic conclusion that must follow.An anticipatory outcome with potential variability.Neural ProcessDeterministic, rule-based transformations.Probabilistic pattern recognition and generalization.CertaintyHigh (within the given system).Lower, as outcomes may deviate from the forecast.

    4. Overlap and Integration

    Inference as Structured Prediction:Inference is a formalized form of prediction constrained by rules, ensuring deterministic outcomes.
    Example: A logical syllogism uses explicit premises to predict the necessary conclusion.

    Prediction as Generalized Inference:Prediction extends inference into open systems, where outcomes depend on probabilistic patterns and uncertainty.
    Example: Weather forecasting uses past data (premises) to infer future weather states probabilistically.

    Shared Basis in Neural Processing:Both inference and prediction rely on the brain’s ability to process relations, test outcomes, and adapt pathways.
    Example: A chess player uses inference (rules of the game) and prediction (opponent’s likely moves).

    5. Implications

    For Neural Structure:The brain’s predictive framework suggests that logical inference is a formalization of an underlying predictive mechanism.
    Simple association (e.g., Pavlovian conditioning) evolves into complex inference (e.g., deductive reasoning) through layering of patterns and relations.

    For Understanding Reasoning:Viewing inference as structured prediction bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic reasoning.
    This perspective aligns with operationalism: both inference and prediction depend on relations, intelligibility, and closure within the system or field.

    Conclusion

    There is no fundamental distinction between correct inference and correct prediction; they are two expressions of the same underlying predictive mechanism. Inference operates within deterministic, closed systems, while prediction handles probabilistic, open systems. This neural perspective unifies both processes, highlighting that even abstract reasoning (inference) is rooted in the brain’s evolved capacity to predict and adapt.

    CLOSURE


    Source date (UTC): 2025-01-02 20:29:25 UTC

    Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/1874915926774255616

  • McMullan: –“We are the only ones who can provide a meaningful upgrade in unders

    McMullan: –“We are the only ones who can provide a meaningful upgrade in understanding. We need greater reach.”–

    We are getting there. We are almost done with Volume 1 (measurement), we are halfway thru Volume 2 (the logic), and it will take a few months of hard work on Volume 3 (the law). Luckily the Trump folks have created awareness and motion on around half of our initiatives.

    Once we publish, it’s available for all, but again, as we have seen, there exists both an IQ and a personality trait barrier. Some people can learn from that. And those people will be the top line of activists and influencers who want attention, influence, and competitive advantage.

    At that point we can convert the existing 1000+ slides into at least three courses. Then we can put people through the courses as fast as they are willing to sign up and do the work.

    The reality won’t change. As we have seen, it takes quite a bit of time to rewire such that the basic behaviors (disambiguation, serialization, operationalization, and the use of the hierarchy of first principles, sex differences, and the equilibrium) is habituated. At that point we see continuous rapid improvement over a one to four year period that does not appear to slow.

    Right now we are likely to be short of “teachers”. So it will take time for momentum. But the idea that there are solutions will percolate out there just as our other ideas have.

    Reply addressees: @TheMcMullan @Timcast


    Source date (UTC): 2024-12-29 22:51:14 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1873502063092801536

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1873499592735752534

  • I can’t confirm these hypotheses because the past few years have cast doubt on t

    I can’t confirm these hypotheses because the past few years have cast doubt on the chinese data – largely because it comes almost entirely from certain urban areas. I also can’t confirm the distribution (though it seems logical). So I go with what I have to work with.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-12-28 21:19:18 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1873116540608102689

    Reply addressees: @BigSisterCynthi

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1873109842703073585

  • Closure refers to the condition in which a system or process produces outcomes t

    Closure refers to the condition in which a system or process produces outcomes that remain entirely within a defined domain, ensuring self-containment. Reducibility is the degree to which a system can be simplified into more fundamental components, and predictability describes the capacity to foresee system outcomes based on its rules and interactions. These concepts interact across domains, adapting to the increasing complexity and causal density of systems.

    Domain (Paradigm)

    “The boundaries of a domain are determined by a paradigm consisting of a system of interrelated dimensions, rules, and relations that are coherent and closed under the operations of the paradigm.”

    Why This Refinement?

    Paradigm as a Governing Framework:A paradigm establishes the fundamental rules, operations, and assumptions that structure the domain.
    Examples:In mathematics, axioms and definitions form the paradigm.
    In physics, paradigms include concepts like space, time, and causality.

    Coherent Dimensions:Dimensions are measures or properties (e.g., length, mass, truth value) that define relationships within the domain.
    “Coherence” ensures that these dimensions relate logically and do not produce contradictions when combined.

    Rules and Relations:Rules define allowable operations (e.g., arithmetic operations, logical inferences).
    Relations describe how elements of the domain interact (e.g., equations, logical entailment).

    Closure:Closure ensures the system remains self-contained, such that any operation or transformation within the paradigm results in elements that stay within the domain.

    Practical Examples:

    Mathematics:Paradigm: Defined by axioms and dimensions such as numbers, geometry, or algebraic structures.
    Domain: Real numbers under arithmetic.
    Boundary: Operations like addition and subtraction stay within real numbers (closure), but division may exit the domain if dividing by zero.

    Physics:Paradigm: Relativity or quantum mechanics, each with its dimensions and rules.
    Domain: Physical phenomena modeled under the chosen paradigm.
    Boundary: Relativity governs macroscopic scales; quantum mechanics governs microscopic scales.

    Ordinary Language:Paradigm: Grammar, semantics, and pragmatic rules.
    Domain: Expressible statements within a language.
    Boundary: Untranslatable idioms or self-referential paradoxes may lie outside the paradigm’s capacity to express meaning coherently.

    Simplified Definition:

    “The boundaries of a domain are determined by a paradigm’s coherent system of rules, dimensions, and relations, which together define what can and cannot exist or be expressed within the domain.”

    Permissible, Possible, and Valid

    The practical difference between permissible, possible, and valid lies in their scope, context, and how they constrain or describe actions, outcomes, or evaluations within a system. These terms often overlap but have distinct operational implications:

    1. Permissible

    Definition: Permissible refers to actions, operations, or outcomes that are allowed within a system based on its rules, constraints, or principles.

    Scope: Defined by the system’s operational grammar or external constraints (legal, ethical, physical).

    Key Feature: What the rules of the system explicitly or implicitly permit.

    Examples:In logic: Applying modus ponens is permissible within deductive systems.
    In law: Driving within the speed limit is permissible by legal standards.
    In physics: Motion within the speed of light is permissible by physical laws.

    Practical Use: Identifies what can be done without violating rules or constraints.

    2. Possible

    Definition: Possible refers to what can occur or be achieved within the system, often constrained by its inherent properties or physical/operational limits.

    Scope: Broader than permissible, as it includes actions or outcomes that may not align with rules but are still feasible.

    Key Feature: What the system allows by nature or design, regardless of external constraints.

    Examples:
    – In logic: A contradictory statement is possible (can be written) but impermissible under the rules of formal logic.
    – In law: Stealing is possible (can physically happen) but impermissible by legal standards.
    – In physics: Violating the second law of thermodynamics is impossible due to natural laws.

    Practical Use: Identifies what can occur in principle, whether or not it adheres to rules.

    3. Valid

    Definition: Valid refers to whether an action, operation, or outcome is both permissible and logically consistent or true within the system.

    Scope: Narrower than both permissible and possible, as it requires adherence to rules and logical coherence.

    Key Feature: What is correct and justified within the system.

    Examples:In logic: A deductive argument is valid if its premises and inference follow logically.
    In law: A legal contract is valid if it meets the jurisdiction’s requirements.
    In mathematics: A proof is valid if all steps conform to axioms and inference rules.

    Practical Use: Determines what is formally correct and defensible within the system.

    Why Avoid Mathematical (Platonic) Terms for General Rules

    Mathematical terms like “valid” often imply absolute, idealized truths, rooted in the Platonic tradition of timeless, abstract forms. Applying these terms universally risks:

    Overgeneralization: Treating domains like law, ethics, or physics as though they operate with the same rigidity as mathematics, which they do not.

    Reductionism: Ignoring the context-sensitive, operational, or pragmatic aspects of systems in favor of abstract consistency.

    Misinterpretation: Suggesting that systems with ambiguity (e.g., ordinary language or social rules) should conform to the same standards as formal logic.

    By distinguishing permissible, possible, and valid, we maintain a more operational approach that aligns with the diversity of systems, accounting for their specific rules, constraints, and variability.

    Summary

    Permissible defines what is allowed by the rules.

    Possible defines what is achievable regardless of rules.

    Valid defines what is correct, adhering to both rules and logical consistency. Focusing on operational distinctions avoids conflating abstract ideals with practical, rule-bound systems, preserving their contextual integrity.

    Closure

    The practical meaning of closure in terms of what can and cannot be expressed and tested lies in its role as a boundary condition for logical consistency, expressibility, and testability. Closure determines whether operations, transformations, or propositions remain valid and coherent within a defined system or domain. It defines the limits of expression and logical testing by ensuring that everything derived from within the system adheres to its rules and constraints.

    What Closure Allows to Be Expressed and Logically Tested

    Consistency Within a Defined System:
    Expressible: Propositions, operations, or statements that adhere to the rules and elements of the system.
    Logically Testable: If a proposition or operation remains within the boundaries of the domain, it can be subjected to logical testing (e.g., truth-functional operations in a formal system).
    Example: In formal logic, a set of premises closed under rules of inference (e.g., modus ponens) can produce valid, testable conclusions.

    Self-Containment:
    Expressible: Concepts and operations that do not depend on external or undefined entities.
    Logically Testable: Tests can proceed without ambiguity or reliance on inputs from outside the system.
    Example: Arithmetic operations within the set of integers are closed and testable because their results remain integers.

    Decidability:
    Expressible: Questions or statements that can be fully evaluated within the system’s rules.
    Logically Testable: Decidability requires closure; without it, the system risks producing statements that cannot be conclusively true or false.
    Example: A formal system like Euclidean geometry is closed under its axioms, allowing propositions to be proven or disproven.

    What Closure Does Not Allow to Be Expressed or Logically Tested

    Expressions Outside the Domain:Not Expressible: Statements or operations that refer to elements outside the defined set or rules.
    Not Logically Testable: Propositions that rely on external or undefined elements cannot be verified within the system.
    Example: Division of integers is not closed in the set of integers because the result may lie outside the domain (e.g., fractions).

    Ambiguities or Undefined Operations:Not Expressible: Propositions that violate the system’s grammar or rules (e.g., self-referential paradoxes in formal logic).
    Not Logically Testable: Ambiguities lead to undecidability because they break the system’s closure.
    Example: The liar paradox (“This statement is false”) is not testable because it violates logical closure.

    Dependencies on External Systems:Not Expressible: Operations requiring external inputs not defined within the system (e.g., importing a foreign rule set without integration).
    Not Logically Testable: Testing depends on resolving external dependencies, which are not guaranteed within the closed system.
    Example: Inconsistent axiomatic systems that incorporate conflicting external axioms lose testability and closure.

    Practical Implications

    Boundaries of Language and Logic:Language Systems: Closure limits expressibility to what can be defined by the grammar and semantics of the language.
    Logical Systems: Closure ensures that only propositions derivable within the rules are logically testable.

    Testability in Science and Mathematics:Science: Closure ensures testability by confining hypotheses and experiments to operationally definable and measurable constructs.
    Mathematics: Closure allows for rigorous proofs because operations remain consistent with axioms.

    Failures of Closure in Practice:Overreach: Attempting to express or test propositions beyond a system’s closure leads to errors, undecidability, or untestable claims.
    Ambiguity: Lack of closure results in ambiguous or contradictory statements, undermining testability and expressibility.

    Summary

    Closure defines the scope of valid expression and logical testing by ensuring self-containment and consistency within a system. It allows for rigorous reasoning, decidability, and testability within the domain, while preventing ambiguities and reliance on undefined or external elements. Practically, closure highlights the limits of what can be expressed and tested logically, emphasizing the need for precise boundaries in any formal, operational, or linguistic system.

    Key Insights

    Closure as a Precondition for Reducibility:
    Systems require closure to confine their transformations within defined rules or domains, ensuring coherence and enabling simplification.
    Without closure, operations yield external dependencies or undefined outcomes, breaking the ability to reduce or predict.

    Spectrum of Reducibility:
    Systems range from mathematically reducible (highly predictable and invariant) to operationally and linguistically reducible (context-bound and prone to error due to abstraction).
    As complexity increases, reducibility shifts from deterministic (mathematical) to interpretative (linguistic), with corresponding declines in predictability.

    Complexity and Causal Density:
    Complexity arises from the number of interacting components and their causal interrelationships.
    Causal density magnifies unpredictability by increasing the permutations of interactions and enabling emergent phenomena.
    Domains like economics highlight this challenge, as dynamic categories and infinite permutations prevent deterministic predictions.

    Emergent Complexity and Permutations

    Permutations and Emergence:
    Increasing complexity expands the space of possible permutations, leading to unpredictable emergent behaviors.
    Example: In economics, feedback loops and dynamic redefinitions of categories (e.g., “value” or “assets”) create endless permutations, frustrating predictive modeling.

    Errors and Bias in Generalization:
    To navigate infinite permutations, systems generalize, abstracting details to create usable models.
    This abstraction introduces error and bias, particularly in systems like language or economics where categories are fluid.

    Reduction and Predictability:
    Systems with invariant permutations (e.g., mathematical equations) are highly reducible and predictable.
    Systems with emergent permutations (e.g., natural phenomena modeled computationally) are reducible but less predictable.
    Systems with infinite permutations (e.g., social systems, economics) rely on heuristics and generalizations, with predictability constrained by context.

    Unified Understanding

    As complexity and causal density increase, systems shift from mathematical reducibility (deterministic) to linguistic and operational reducibility (contextual and interpretative).

    Predictability diminishes as emergent permutations arise and categories change dynamically, necessitating heuristics and generalizations.

    Infinite domains, such as social and economic systems, resist deterministic prediction, relying instead on probabilistic and operational models.

    This analysis highlights the interplay between closure, reducibility, and predictability, emphasizing how these principles vary across domains as complexity and causal density scale. Understanding these dynamics allows for more effective navigation of systems based on their inherent constraints and opportunities.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-12-27 21:05:54 UTC

    Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/1872750780505309187