WHICH FALLACY ARE WE ENGAGING IN?
Economics whether neurological, behavioral, micro, political, or macro, asks us to account for the seen and unseen, which overcomes the tendency to engage in foolish judgments.
In this case, that the costs are avoidable at all, rather than we are trying to pay the lowest costs by using time to our advantage.
CONTEXT
Just as the agrarian age, the age of religion, the bronze age, the iron age, and the steel age radiated outward from different points on the planet, causing disruption, modernity is spreading from the most advanced countries in Northwest Europe to the least advanced, and the most independent and federal to the most occupied and imperial.
In other words, we overestimate world wars as avoidable. They aren’t. They are part of the necessary progress from early tribal, to agrarian imperial, to industrial-sovereign to post-industrial federation as each empire comes to terms with their loss of ability to contain conquered peoples – and prevent the march of self-determination from spreading around the rest of the planet.
China and Russia are empires. They consist of predatory and deeply corrupt governments of organized crime syndicates. Unlike the Russians who did, and are returning to, the militarization of the labor pool as a discount, China could use currency and debt to discount the costs of their modernization. The Chinese learned from both Russia and the West.
India may have escaped the modernization crisis – or rather colonialism removed their choice – though the Hindu-Muslim conflict may yet bring it about. India is, despite its modernization, and the vast talent pool of its upper classes, fundamentally a religious society first. It has just as equal a chance to continue its rise, as it does to follow the Muslim golden age into the restoration of fundamentalism and face india’s second intellectual collapse.
Iran is in the process of trying to create an empire. An empire that monopolized Eurasian petroleum, from which they create a petro-currency, with which to fund their conquest of the middle east.
Under strong federalism in response to the civil war, and under managerialism and credentialism in the 20th century, America has slipped from a federation organized on the Holy Roman Empire combined with the invention of the British modern government and law, into an empire – at the cost of its founding populations, its law, and the culture that made it possible. Just as have other empires that have overextended. Especially Europeans who repeat overextension with disturbing frequency.
Europe is failing, or rather, France is failing (thankfully), to federalize Europe into a strong federal version of the USA while at the same time the USA is struggling with NOT devolving back to its constitutional formation as a military, financial, and trade alliance of independent European states, with different norms, traditions, values, and demand for regional and local commons to support those differences. (Which I work to accomplish)
With Germany overly pacified, Poland on the behalf of itself, with less than half its population and economy, is taking over responsibility once again for defense from the east. and we may see the intermarium states turn into the civilization we’d hoped for, and end both the French and Russian threat, while Germany recovers her willpower.
Continued…