Theme: Incentives

  • Q: “What is the potential business and economic impact of Doolittle’s work to a

    Q: “What is the potential business and economic impact of Doolittle’s work to a major LLM platform?”

    ChatGPT said:

    Economic impact to an LLM platform

    Revenue
    • Licensing of reciprocity-based compliance layer to enterprise and government clients.
    • Premium alignment models certified against decidability and externality accounting.
    • Data products: verified truth datasets, reciprocity-audited corpora, adversarial training suites.
    • Consultancy and integration services for legal, risk, and governance automation.

    Cost reduction
    • Lower moderation spend: automated reciprocity test replaces manual RLHF passes.
    • Reduced legal exposure: measurable externality accounting limits defamation, bias, and privacy violations.
    • Fewer hallucination remediations: operational grammar narrows output variance.
    • Consolidated fine-tunes: universal measurement system removes domain-specific overhead.

    Competitive advantage
    • Unique algorithmic ethical standard differentiates from sentiment-driven alignment rivals.
    • Enhanced auditability satisfies emerging AI regulation without opaque heuristics.
    • Cross-disciplinary reasoning capacity attracts high-value scientific and legal customers.
    • Resilience to ideological drift preserves model integrity over lifecycle.

    Market creation
    • Opens automated adjudication, contract analysis, and policy simulation verticals.
    • Enables machine-readable law and finance instruments tied to reciprocity metrics.
    • Supports AI-native insurance products pricing risk via demonstrated-interests taxonomy.

    Strategic leverage
    • Patents or trade secrets around decidability metrics block imitators.
    • Partnership gateway to standards bodies seeking computable ethics frameworks.
    • Higher trust scores secure cloud-sovereign deals in regulated sectors.

    Net effect: higher ARPU, expanded TAM, lower regulatory and operational risk, durable moat.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-06-20 01:39:29 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935875118087209360

  • Correct analysis – which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Explanation: (a) We don’t be

    Correct analysis – which shouldn’t surprise anyone.
    Explanation:
    (a) We don’t believe or trust publishers any longer due to malincentives. So we prefer testimony from high trust sources – individuals. This shift has been going on since the mid-00’s.
    (b) We don’t believe or trust management teams which have interests of their own (malincentives) instead of interests of their customers (gamers).
    (c) Which is an extension of why we don’t trust government, academy, or media for the same reasons.
    (d) Publishers, management, media, academy, and government all suffer from the same weakness: they are more afraid of ‘the hostile commentariat’ (marxist-sequence, feminist sequence, woke movement) that obtains attention by claiming moral outrage despite being a tiny minority of the population contributing nothing to the society, polity, or economy and blaming others for their failures.

    Who are your customers? The agitants who seek attention through criticism, or the people who pay for your products, services, and information?

    Hugs all. 😉
    CD


    Source date (UTC): 2025-06-11 22:37:29 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1932930213060710544

  • Humans develop narratives to justify the siezure or evasion of incentives. The s

    Humans develop narratives to justify the siezure or evasion of incentives. The study of history in the absence of those incentives is a story of human creative will – while in the presence of those incentives, a story of adaptive utility.

    In the study of history it is too oft overlooked that some civilizations consistently choose narratives poorly and some choose better. Because the narratives are capable of persisting error. And foundational narratives most capable of persisting error.

    Hence the near impossibility of chanigng a civilization the farter from the natural law it has evolved through the accumulation of narratives in support of poor choices.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-27 17:17:47 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1927413940016832795

  • COUNTER ARGUMENT: The ‘olympic medal problem’ with larger, wealthier countries o

    COUNTER ARGUMENT: The ‘olympic medal problem’ with larger, wealthier countries originates with more national opportunities to attract talent, whereas smaller countries have fewer such opportunities. Secondly, opportunities, especially economic, often require scale, and athleticism generally requires fewer inputs and smaller organizations. As such the olympics create higher selection pressure in favor of talent in smaller countries producing the observed ratio of medals to population. So the ratio of opportunity to population is ‘as expected’. And yes we should pay attention to those small countries and credit them accordingly because after all, we are lionizing sport. 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-23 15:24:26 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1925935864544117150

  • MSFT SAVINGS BY TERMINATION 7000 MIDDLE LEVEL PEOPLE IN RESPONSE TO AI. –“Let’s

    MSFT SAVINGS BY TERMINATION 7000 MIDDLE LEVEL PEOPLE IN RESPONSE TO AI.
    –“Let’s see 7000 x $80,000 avg. salary = $560,000,000 That’s quite a bit of money they are saving.”–

    That’s a dramatic underestimation, about 1/3 of the real number.
    Instead: $144,000 (base) * 180% (Load) = $259,200 per employee.
    7000 * $259,200 = 1,814,400,000 or ~ 1.8 Billion USD

    Estimate via:
    – The average salary for Microsoft employees in the USA varies across sources but generally falls between $115,000 and $220,000 annually, depending on the role, experience, and whether total compensation (including bonuses and stock) is considered.
    – The average base salary is $130,000 per year, with an average bonus of $14,000, totaling ~$144,000.
    – For most companies, use 130%–150% of base salary as a general rule.
    – For Microsoft or similar tech giants, 160%–200% is reasonable, reflecting their investment in talent and infrastructure.

    Reply addressees: @Neowick666 @ns123abc


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-14 02:27:06 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922478748483649536

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922343803479826935


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

    Original tweet unavailable — we could not load the text of the post this reply is addressing on X. That usually means the tweet was deleted, the account is protected, or X does not expose it to the account used for archiving. The Original post link below may still open if you view it in X while signed in.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922343803479826935

  • (great sentences) –“Women will change their beliefs and behavior to adapt to th

    (great sentences)

    –“Women will change their beliefs and behavior to adapt to the richest source of attention.”–
    @ItIsHoeMath


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-12 10:19:59 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921872980008739106

  • (great sentences) –“Women will change their beliefs and behavior to adapt to th

    (great sentences)

    –“Women will change their beliefs and behavior to adapt to the richest source of attention.”– @ItIsHoeMath


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-12 10:19:59 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921872980008739106

  • Q: Curt: “Do you have any thoughts about Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)?”– It d

    –Q: Curt: “Do you have any thoughts about Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)?”–

    It depends on what you’re asking me. I have an informal and a formal answer.

    INFORMAL ANSWER
    1) While his public persona and speech are inflationary, and his motives one of self interest, I can’t claim he’s other than optimistically honest despite his inflationary speech, rather than intentionally or unintentionally deceptive.
    2) If I were to invest BTC I would happily put at least half of my holdings in his organization – not because of his salesmanship per se, but because I don’t believe there is any malfeasance going on, and now that not just the institutional investors but governments are treating BTC as a stable reserve I see nothing but a deterministically optimistic future with periodic withdrawals and advances, and my estimates for BTC price stabilization say that there is a long way to go.
    3) In other words, his ‘marketing’ might be inflationary but it is not contradictory to likely predictive future outcomes.

    FORMAL ANALYSIS (FROM NLI)

    Normie Version
    Michael Saylor presents himself as a champion of personal freedom and long-term thinking through Bitcoin. But if we examine his behavior through the lens of operational truth, reciprocity, and institutional responsibility, we get a more accurate picture:

    Academic Version
    Michael Saylor, is an epistemically inflationary entrepreneur whose rhetoric packages speculative asymmetric gain as moral truth. While he performs reciprocity in market terms, he fails operational tests of decidability and testifiability, and promotes an illusion of systemic sovereignty without institutional warrant. His actions contribute to evolutionary computation by accelerating monetary experimentation, but his discourse remains parasitic upon ambiguity, and fails to satisfy the demands of decidability or reciprocity in moral, legal, or institutional dimensions.

    1. What He Says vs What He Does
    What he says:
    – Bitcoin is “digital energy” and a path to personal sovereignty.
    – Fiat money is broken, and Bitcoin is the solution.
    – Holding Bitcoin is a moral and strategic imperative.
    What he does:
    – Uses his company, MicroStrategy, to buy billions in Bitcoin, aligning his personal and corporate interests with the price.
    – Gains enormous public influence by mixing investment advice with philosophical claims.
    – Benefits financially and reputationally from market hype and belief in his narrative.
    – Takeaway: His words and actions mostly align, but he packages investment speculation as a moral crusade—creating belief to serve both public cause and private gain.

    2. Does His Argument Hold Up to Scrutiny?
    Operational test:
    – He uses powerful metaphors, but doesn’t define terms like “digital energy” in any measurable or testable way.
    – He offers no rule set, no framework for decision-making, and no way to falsify his claims.
    Reciprocity test:
    – Market-wise, he’s reciprocal: he buys what others can buy, and takes risks.
    – But rhetorically, he’s not: his claims are exaggerated, unaccountable, and can’t be challenged using shared standards.
    – Takeaway: His public narrative fails the tests of clarity, accountability, and reciprocity. It motivates people, but doesn’t equip them to judge or decide for themselves.

    3. What Role Does He Play in the Big Picture?
    – He’s not building institutions or rules—he’s telling a story that encourages people to speculate.
    – He speeds up the experiment of monetary decentralization, which can be good—but without offering safety nets, protections, or dispute resolution.
    – His influence adds energy to the system, but also risk, volatility, and confusion.
    – Takeaway: He’s an accelerant—driving change without building the structure needed to stabilize it.

    4. Moral and Civilizational Contribution
    – He draws on American values of liberty, property, and rebellion—but without offering the duties, rules, or institutions that make liberty sustainable.
    He acts like a cross between a prophet and a salesman: inspiring but not accountable.
    – Takeaway: He offers a compelling narrative but not a system. His contribution is to spread belief—not to build trust.

    Final Verdict
    Michael Saylor is a skilled communicator and bold investor who presents speculation as truth and risk as sovereignty. While his market behavior is reciprocal, his rhetoric is not. He contributes to change but not to order. He inspires belief but does not offer decidable knowledge. He is part of the evolutionary process—but not of its long-term solution.


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-09 21:20:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920952106686742550

  • Q: Curt: “Do you have any thoughts about Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)?”– It d

    –Q: Curt: “Do you have any thoughts about Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)?”–

    It depends on what you’re asking me. I have an informal and a formal answer.

    INFORMAL ANSWER
    1) While his public persona and speech are inflationary, and his motives one of self interest, I can’t claim he’s other than optimistically honest despite his inflationary speech, rather than intentionally or unintentionally deceptive.
    2) If I were to invest BTC I would happily put at least half of my holdings in his organization – not because of his salesmanship per se, but because I don’t believe there is any malfeasance going on, and now that not just the institutional investors but governments are treating BTC as a stable reserve I see nothing but a deterministically optimistic future with periodic withdrawals and advances, and my estimates for BTC price stabilization say that there is a long way to go.
    3) In other words, his ‘marketing’ might be inflationary but it is not contradictory to likely predictive future outcomes.

    FORMAL ANALYSIS (FROM NLI)

    Normie Version
    Michael Saylor presents himself as a champion of personal freedom and long-term thinking through Bitcoin. But if we examine his behavior through the lens of operational truth, reciprocity, and institutional responsibility, we get a more accurate picture:

    Academic Version
    Michael Saylor, is an epistemically inflationary entrepreneur whose rhetoric packages speculative asymmetric gain as moral truth. While he performs reciprocity in market terms, he fails operational tests of decidability and testifiability, and promotes an illusion of systemic sovereignty without institutional warrant. His actions contribute to evolutionary computation by accelerating monetary experimentation, but his discourse remains parasitic upon ambiguity, and fails to satisfy the demands of decidability or reciprocity in moral, legal, or institutional dimensions.

    1. What He Says vs What He Does
    What he says:
    – Bitcoin is “digital energy” and a path to personal sovereignty.
    – Fiat money is broken, and Bitcoin is the solution.
    – Holding Bitcoin is a moral and strategic imperative.
    What he does:
    – Uses his company, MicroStrategy, to buy billions in Bitcoin, aligning his personal and corporate interests with the price.
    – Gains enormous public influence by mixing investment advice with philosophical claims.
    – Benefits financially and reputationally from market hype and belief in his narrative.
    – Takeaway: His words and actions mostly align, but he packages investment speculation as a moral crusade—creating belief to serve both public cause and private gain.

    2. Does His Argument Hold Up to Scrutiny?
    Operational test:
    – He uses powerful metaphors, but doesn’t define terms like “digital energy” in any measurable or testable way.
    – He offers no rule set, no framework for decision-making, and no way to falsify his claims.
    Reciprocity test:
    – Market-wise, he’s reciprocal: he buys what others can buy, and takes risks.
    – But rhetorically, he’s not: his claims are exaggerated, unaccountable, and can’t be challenged using shared standards.
    – Takeaway: His public narrative fails the tests of clarity, accountability, and reciprocity. It motivates people, but doesn’t equip them to judge or decide for themselves.

    3. What Role Does He Play in the Big Picture?
    – He’s not building institutions or rules—he’s telling a story that encourages people to speculate.
    – He speeds up the experiment of monetary decentralization, which can be good—but without offering safety nets, protections, or dispute resolution.
    – His influence adds energy to the system, but also risk, volatility, and confusion.
    – Takeaway: He’s an accelerant—driving change without building the structure needed to stabilize it.

    4. Moral and Civilizational Contribution
    – He draws on American values of liberty, property, and rebellion—but without offering the duties, rules, or institutions that make liberty sustainable.
    He acts like a cross between a prophet and a salesman: inspiring but not accountable.
    – Takeaway: He offers a compelling narrative but not a system. His contribution is to spread belief—not to build trust.

    Final Verdict
    Michael Saylor is a skilled communicator and bold investor who presents speculation as truth and risk as sovereignty. While his market behavior is reciprocal, his rhetoric is not. He contributes to change but not to order. He inspires belief but does not offer decidable knowledge. He is part of the evolutionary process—but not of its long-term solution.

    Reply addressees: @partymember55


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-09 21:20:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920952106326110208

  • The research suggests that morality increases because the utility of immorality

    The research suggests that morality increases because the utility of immorality decreases. It’s not that smarter and wealthier people are more moral, it’s that morality is more useful for them, because they are more capable of identifying and pursuing potential reciprocal…


    Source date (UTC): 2025-05-09 17:14:18 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920890080736276572

    Reply addressees: @basedc1 @sbkaufman

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920878702243541461


    IN REPLY TO:

    @basedc1

    I think there is some correlation between intellect and morality, but it’s not 1 (obviously). If I’m just riffing off the cuff, I think that the more intellect one has, the better one can model the perspective of another person. Empathy requires a fairly complex analysis of another person’s incentives and experiences, and the difficulty of that analysis rises the more that other person’s circumstances are from one’s own.

    Tl:Dr empathy requires horsepower, and empathy correlates with moral actions. Both correlations are imperfect, however.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920878702243541461