Theme: Incentives

  • What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Different Philosophies Of Economics?

    You listed political philosophies but not economic philosophies.  They are two sets of questions.

    1) Political philosophies consider three different questions:
    a) How is the institution of property constructed (is property owned by individuals, the collective, an institution, or an authoritarian figure, and what are the limits on the use of that property)
    b) what institution is used to determine the use of property (the market, heads of families, bureaucracy, or a dictator)
    c) what claims do citizens (shareholders) have on the results of production or the profits from exchange. (Which are technically the same thing.)
    Everything else is trappings.  We know that incentives and the ability to calculate and plan determine the rate of innovation and effort put into work.  So the more individual property rights are, the more consumption is possible at the lowest cost.

    2) Economic philosophies fall into temporal categories from the short term to the long term, and advocates differer not so much on the utility of any given tactic, but on their approval or disapproval of the externalities (secondary consequences) of using the tactic. Economists then, tend to ally with political philosophies based upon those SECONDARY outcomes.

    These outcomes are driven by ‘fears’.  The liberal fears that the poor or less able will experience discomfort.  The conservative fears that society will be made fragile and uncompetitive.  If we work very hard and save then society will become hierarchical but safe.  If we redistribute and only a few work hard then society will have less discomfort but more fragility.  At least, that’s the theory. The left tolerates fragility and the right tolerates discomfort. It really boils down to that simple a difference.

    What economists do agree upon is that stimulating demand (consumption) stimulates the economy and does it quickly.  What they disagree upon is the good or bad consequences that come from stimulating the economy. The different economic strategies insert money into the economy in a range from very short to very long time frames.

    And the political ideologies are biased toward these two time frames: conservative the long term and liberal the short term.  In effect, the left wants the most redistribution possible right away in order to diminish the stress of the natural difference between teh classes, and think incentives are a means of coercion, and the right wants a meritocratic society where people have an incentive to be productive. (These are simply expressions of the feminine and masculine reproductive strategies. Nothing more.) 

    The different economic tactics below are organized from short term (liberal) to long term (conservative).  Economists tend to fall into camps that PREFER one or more of the tactics. 

    The Economic Tactics:
    a) Modern Monetarists (MMT): when necessary, just give money directly to people in order to stimulate consumption.  MMT is a counter intuitive theory that is widely disputed.  But the idea that we should be able to bypass the financial sector and directly credit consumer bank accounts is not a bad one. The data shows that tax incentives are not useful in the short term. (I was one of the people advocating that we just pay down consumer mortgages by 200K – it would be cheaper than letting the world economy collapse for a decade. Galbraith recommended the same thing before he died. And he and I are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.)   The counter arguments are that there isn’t any way to do this today, and it’s pretty hard to not create a moral hazard, and it’s pretty hard to be equitable, because you’re effectively rewarding people who used bad judgement.  FAVORED BY THE RADICAL LEFT

    b) Monetary Policy: when necessary, reduce the cost of credit (interest rates) so that people are more willing to borrow money. This puts cheap money into the banking system and money works its way through consumers and business into the economy.  This works well in ordinary times mostly as fine tuning, but when we are subject to shocks, like the recession, we can’t make money cheap enough that people actually will spend it. Right now, given the rate of inflation, money is effectively free to borrow. But people still aren’t lending or borrowing.  There is wide consensus that monetary policy is necessary under fiat (monopoly) money.  There is wide consensus that monetary policy can decrease the problems of money shortage compared to the gold standard. The criticism is that monetary policy exaggerates booms and busts.  WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS OTHER THAN LIBERTARIANS

    c) Fiscal Policy (Keynesians) : when necessary, the government borrows (or prints) and spends money on all sorts of programs in order to put money into the economy using the goverment’s spending network.  The problem is that it does take some time to work its way into people’s hands. There are not “shovel ready’ projects available and they take time.  And the real reason people object is because it finances political corruption, and the party in power tends to spend it in partisan fashion. (WHich is why the republicans won’t allow it right now.)  The other reason is that people just don’t trust the government any longer.  So they don’t want to reward the government.  The third reason is that conservatives in particular do not want to expand the government, but contract it.  FAVORED BY THE LEFT

    d) Industrial Policy: the government should (as do most other countries) invest in particular industries that will create jobs and lead to a competitive advantage.  INdustrial policy is usually accompanied by TRADE POLICY (import export controls and taxation).  The asian countries have used these policies to their benefit. China in particular.  The right and libertarians abandoned industrial policy and moved to free trade when the unions allied with the left.  But industrial policy is naturally attractive to the right.  For all intents and purposes, industrial policy has been abandoned in the USA. FAVORED BY THE RIGHT, DESPISED BY LIBERTARIANS.

    e) Human capital policy (Education) : Education policy is the means of improving the competitive value of citizens in relation to other countries.  It takes a very long time for  education policy to take effect.  The germans have demonstrated the best understanding of education. Although most americans would find their model invasive.
    FAVORED BY THE RIGHT, FAVORED BY LIBERTARIANS, ACTIVELY UNDERMINED BY THE LEFT.

    f) Strategic Policy (Military Policy): control of global trade routes, oil, and petro dollars is one of the most important reasons for the USA’s standard of living, despite the relative lack of competitiveness of it’s working classes.  This is a very complex and long topic, but strategic policy IS ECONOMIC POLICY.  The average american gets a pretty big return on his military expenditures. But that’s an unpleasant reality for many.  Strategic policy takes a very long time to play out. But most countries engage in it.  Iran for example is trying to become the core state of islamic civilization and control world oil supplies and prices, and by doing so, eliminate the discount that western citizens pay for oil. 
    FAVORED BY THE RIGHT, DESPISED BY LIBERTARIANS AND THE LEFT

    This needs to be a book length topic but hopefully it illustrates that political philosophy and economic philosophy are two different things.  But that economic philosophy is divided into specialties that correlate with the different sides of the political spectrum.

    One thing is for certain: economists will talk as if they are far more certain than they are or can be. We are too inexperienced in the field of economics, and the problem is far too complex for us to be sure of what we are doing. In effect, we are running a very big experiment on humanity. It seems to be working reasonably well. But some patients are definitely harmed in the process.  The most important of which is that we are expanding the population to questionable levels.

    (I have a splitting headache so i will have to come back and check this for edits this later.  -Cheers)

    https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-different-philosophies-of-economics

  • In The Us, Is It Realistic To Try To Achieve Labor/progressive Goals In Businesses Through More Active Shareholder Participation Rather Than Government Regulation?

    Being a shareholder is like being a voter. It’s more symbolic than meaningful. Companies of any size are affected either by a) threats to the brand perception by customers or b) threats at regulation.  These two are more effectives strategies than minority share ownership.

    IMHO there is a trending body of thought that suggests shareholders are not owners but speculative lenders. The recent Apple dividend distribution was caused by economists blogging and publicly decrying the company’s hoard.  This caused the company to issue dividends defensively.  And the powerlessness (and frankly, lack of utility) of shareholders was part of that discussion.  Lynn Stout has written a book “The Shareholder Value Myth” and I think it accurately represents the mythology around shareholder ownership.

    https://www.quora.com/In-the-US-is-it-realistic-to-try-to-achieve-labor-progressive-goals-in-businesses-through-more-active-shareholder-participation-rather-than-government-regulation

  • Stiglitz Joins In On Keynesian Spending In Order To Expand The Oppressive State

    The Keynesian debate promoted by such writers as Krugman, Delong, Thoma, Smith, and Stiglitz is misleading. Human beings are well aware that spending can increase demand, and that demand will improve the economy. The problem is, that we’re also aware of the externalities that are caused by that spending: the increase in government interference in our lives, the expansion of government’s size, the corruption created by the use of the funds, the use of the funds to support one’s opposition, the destruction of our savings, and the near prohibition on the institution of saving. These negative consequences all support the secondary Keynesian objectives: the strong and increasingly egalitarian state. So Keynesians promote spending as much because of it’s externalities as for its impact on the economy. Just as we oppose those externalities because we desire freedom from an oppressive state, even if we must pay a high cost for doing so. The germans resent supporting the greeks, italians and spanish just as much as americans resent supporting their liberal leaning underclasses. And while it may be true that the scale of our economy allows us to print money, that is not to say that each of us could not be more free, more prosperous, more secure and more competitive, as smaller collections of states rather than a continental federation of states oppressed by the coasts. The Keynesian arguments are convincing on first blush. But they are only convincing because in their simplicity they ignore the true costs of government spending – the externalities that come from empowering the state: it is not debt alone that we face. It’s the destruction of meritocracy and the submission to the state. The germans and the americans are right to oppose it.

  • FROM: Krugmanville QUOTE: “I’m waiting for the .1% to realize that increase in d

    FROM: Krugmanville

    QUOTE: “I’m waiting for the .1% to realize that increase in demand will bring increase in earnings. The path to profit maximization does not include depression. At some point politicians and private equity firms will realize stimulating the economy is in their interests.” /QUOTE

    Curt Doolittle, Seattle WA

    It may be comforting to view one’s opposition as clueless, stupid or ignorant. But it isn’t true. This conservative strategy has been consistent since the Reagan era, when conservatives looked at demographic data and determined that it was no longer possible to work within the state, only in competition with it, in an effort to bankrupt it.

    So your argument about the .1% “realizing” something, or that they can make more money funding consumption doesn’t wash. It’s not about money. It’s about constraining the state. The .1% are ‘hired’, and empowered by the conservatives as an opposition to the intrusive state’s assault on norms. So, no one is clueless here. It’s a strategy and it’s working. And it’s going to continue to work because of demographics. Because of those demographics, polarization is a permanent property of the American empire.

    The founder’s use of majority rule assumed a dominant christian agrarian populace. It was a vehicle for preserving the power of that social order through common interest. Addition of women to the electorate undermined that dynamic. Immigration altered it. Breeding rates made it permanent. Urbanization and density preference exacerbated it. And the result is necessary polarization as one group that’s biased female uses the state and the other that’s biased male uses commerce. And nothing is going to change that dynamic other than a substantial decrease in single parenthood, and small households, or a rapid change in racial breeding rate distributions. Since those factors are unlikely to occur in an industrialized society, the polarization will be exacerbated and permanent until there is some conflict that restructures the constitution, or some innovation that renders the state less meaningful as a means of redistribution.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-09 10:43:00 UTC

  • How Is An Economic Stimulus Package Supposed To Work?

    There are a series of possible stimuli available from the short term to the long term.
    1) Spending – Fiscal Policy: the government borrows money, then spends it on any number of projects.  This puts money in the hands of consumers, consumers spend on things not related to the projects, and businesses respond in order to serve demand. Their employees spend too, and the cycle expands.  Problem? It takes a long time for money to move into the economy.
    2) Monetary Policy: the government borrows money and then auctions it off at low rates.  Bankers buy this ‘cheap’ money and sell it as lower cost loans to business and the public.  Problem? Sometimes (now) no matter how low you make the cost of credit (effectively zero) people will not borrow it.
    3) Trade Policy. Sometimes you can tax or reduce taxes on goods and services to make them cheaper or more expensive. So, for example, if you want to create jobs in say, clothing manufacture, you highly tax clothing imports.  Problem: this just makes goods and services more expensive for consumers, so it has to be paired with monetary policy.
    4) Industrial policy: what we did with the auto companies. You find a way to create or expand industries that create jobs or create demand.
    5) Education policy: train or retrain your population to produce goods and services that are desired, when the goods and services they produce are no longer as desirable.

    Most of the time, governments quickly adjust monetary policy then they try spending policy.  The argument today is that we should spend more. The problem is that people don’t trust their government to spend it wisely, and they therefore prefer to suffer a slower economy than fund bad behavior in government.

    https://www.quora.com/How-is-an-economic-stimulus-package-supposed-to-work

  • Have Any Corporations Embraced Equitable Or Just Compensation Models?

    Um.. This is one of those problems that’s really nonsense. 

    All employees should be compensated at market rates. Otherwise if you are lower, they won’t stay, if they are over, your competition will eat you.

    Compensation is not equitable WITHIN A COMPANY. It is equitable across ALL COMPANIES.

    Do not fall into the trap of confusing the ‘fiarness’ of a family, with the alliance of people that work together in a company.

    https://www.quora.com/Have-any-corporations-embraced-equitable-or-just-compensation-models

  • How Is An Economic Stimulus Package Supposed To Work?

    There are a series of possible stimuli available from the short term to the long term.
    1) Spending – Fiscal Policy: the government borrows money, then spends it on any number of projects.  This puts money in the hands of consumers, consumers spend on things not related to the projects, and businesses respond in order to serve demand. Their employees spend too, and the cycle expands.  Problem? It takes a long time for money to move into the economy.
    2) Monetary Policy: the government borrows money and then auctions it off at low rates.  Bankers buy this ‘cheap’ money and sell it as lower cost loans to business and the public.  Problem? Sometimes (now) no matter how low you make the cost of credit (effectively zero) people will not borrow it.
    3) Trade Policy. Sometimes you can tax or reduce taxes on goods and services to make them cheaper or more expensive. So, for example, if you want to create jobs in say, clothing manufacture, you highly tax clothing imports.  Problem: this just makes goods and services more expensive for consumers, so it has to be paired with monetary policy.
    4) Industrial policy: what we did with the auto companies. You find a way to create or expand industries that create jobs or create demand.
    5) Education policy: train or retrain your population to produce goods and services that are desired, when the goods and services they produce are no longer as desirable.

    Most of the time, governments quickly adjust monetary policy then they try spending policy.  The argument today is that we should spend more. The problem is that people don’t trust their government to spend it wisely, and they therefore prefer to suffer a slower economy than fund bad behavior in government.

    https://www.quora.com/How-is-an-economic-stimulus-package-supposed-to-work

  • Have Any Corporations Embraced Equitable Or Just Compensation Models?

    Um.. This is one of those problems that’s really nonsense. 

    All employees should be compensated at market rates. Otherwise if you are lower, they won’t stay, if they are over, your competition will eat you.

    Compensation is not equitable WITHIN A COMPANY. It is equitable across ALL COMPANIES.

    Do not fall into the trap of confusing the ‘fiarness’ of a family, with the alliance of people that work together in a company.

    https://www.quora.com/Have-any-corporations-embraced-equitable-or-just-compensation-models

  • THE TOP THEORETICAL TAX RATE REALY 70% OR IS IT REALLY 50%? This article discuss

    http://www.nationalreview.com/agenda/300373/guest-post-arpit-gupta-saez-and-diamond-taxes-arpit-guptaIS THE TOP THEORETICAL TAX RATE REALY 70% OR IS IT REALLY 50%?

    This article discusses top tax rates in tolerably accessible terms.

    I’ll buy that it’s 48%, depending upon where it’s graduated. But as I’ve stated repeatedly, it has to be constructed on a rolling average of income, not that of a single year, which penalizes the middle class for rare events that pay for their retirements. Otherwise there is no 1% (or the more accurate .017%) because something close to 30% of people end up in that high tax bracket at some time in their lives, and that’s too big a block to alienate through aggressive taxation that threatens their retirement savings that come from almost entirely from rare events.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-05-19 17:47:00 UTC

  • DO THE LEFT QUANTITATIVE ECONOMISTS IGNORE STRATEGIC CIRCUMSTANCES? – AN Analysi

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/will-iran-kill-petrodollarWHY DO THE LEFT QUANTITATIVE ECONOMISTS IGNORE STRATEGIC CIRCUMSTANCES? – AN Analysis Of What Our Future Might Look Like.

    I always find the Keynesian quants amateurish. They select the policy that suites their ideology. It’s just another example of confirmation bias. The constantly quote data going back only as far as the second world war.

    Monetary policy and spending policy are short term tools for fine adjustment of an economy. Industrial policy and Strategic policy, Education and Cultural policy for the long term construction of an economy. Monetary and spending policy serve statist and redistributionist ends, Industrial, Strategic, Education and Cultural policy serve conservative ends. Conservatives think in terms of accumulating reserves of capital, and leftists in terms of distributing it.

    The United States has benefitted from 1992 onward from cheap labor, and cheap prices, due to the adoption of consumer capitalism in the post-communist world, combined with the petro-dollar which has artificially increased our purchasing power since 1973. From 1945 to the sixties we benefitted from being the only remaining industrial power, and the cheap conversion of farm labor to industrial labor. From 1840 to 1930 we benefitted from having cheap land and the ability to immigrate excess european population, which we could sell at a discount to the expanding european empires. From 1750 to 1850 we benefitted from conquering a continent occupied by a small number of stone age indigenous people.

    The left economists would have us believe that our quality of life is the product of our democracy and our technology. But it is not. They are a luxury good produced by the organized application of violence in order to obtain a strategic economic advantage. Just as the greeks used organized violence to obtain trade access through the Dardanelles, the Muslims then the italians in the Mediterranean, the northern europeans in the new world.

    Our temporary advantages that were born of the western advancement in violence, reason, commerce and technology, have been neutralized by our evangelism of consumer capitalism, over their strenuous objections and often violent resistance, to the rest of the human race.

    We have created an inter-temporal hazard: an economic dependency upon anticipated future profits which are unsustainable in without strategic military advantages, and unsustainable a population that is polarized, and as such unsustainable as an economy and possibly a polity. Much of that polarization is caused by conflict over this very issue. And class, cultural, and race warfare can be masked through redistribution in times of wealth. But it cannot be masked in times of prolonged distress. A prolonged distress caused by the loss of those strategic advantages.

    Our external debt is irrelevant. We can inflate it away with ease. But we must continue to sell debt to pay for our entire discretionary budget: every dollar of the military and every dollar of the entire federal government is paid for with debt. The other two thirds, consisting of social security, medicare and medicaid are paid for by the totality of our taxes. If the USA is unable to sell debt for petro-dollars, there is absolutely no way for us to replace one third of our budget. ie: that 1/3 which comes from debt, is in fact, 100% of the budget which our government exists to spend. Without that 1/3 that coes from debt we have no money AT ALL for our government to spend.

    Now, the cautious reader might say that we will not lose 100% of our ability to sell debt. There may always be a market for american debt, simply because of the size of our economy. But again, this is a circular statement. It may only take a decrease of fifteen or twenty percent of demand for our debt to decrease the size of our economy such that our debt is no longer desirable whatsoever. At that point, people will fly to some other currency: a currency that is backed by oil and gold, and which will most likely come from the BRIC countries.

    The left’s argument is that we simply can create demand by printing, borrowing and spending. Yes. But we cannot calculate a future based upon predictions that are specious. The future is uncertain.

    That is the entire philosophy of conservatism: Save, Produce, Take Joy In Present Goods Over Fantasy Future Perfections, in order to avoid the error of human hubris. The very human hubris wich is the justification for progressive ideology and policy.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-05-13 13:48:00 UTC