Curt Doolittle

Theme: Incentives

  • Founders Fund, the venture-capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, has bought la

    Founders Fund, the venture-capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, has bought large sums of bitcoin that are now worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

  • WILL THE ECONOMY CORRECT AGAIN LIKE 2008 THIS YEAR? –“Will the economy bubble b

    WILL THE ECONOMY CORRECT AGAIN LIKE 2008 THIS YEAR?

    –“Will the economy bubble burst again in 2018 (like the one that happened in 2008)?”–

    It is a virtual certainty that we will see some sort of massive correction even greater than the 2008 crisis, sometime between now and 2025. And at that time the states will need to bypass the financial system in order to put liquidity into consumer (citizen’s) hands, so that the economy can adapt to the shock. And governments are not yet ready to do this, although Americans can do it fastest. (And some of us are trying to make sure it happens this time around.)

    Now, the reason this will be difficult, is that we have spent the entire postwar era financializing the economy, and done more so since the advent of petro-dollars, and more so to defeat world communism, and more so since the 2001 crash, and more so since the 2008 crash. (We could have paid off the vast majority of home mortgages in 2008 with the money we have spent SINCE 2008 trying to correct the economy. (Only Galbraith, me, and one other made this argument. Unfortunately, he was the only person of influence, and he died.) Imagine what that would have done to the economy.

    Unfortunately, that ‘shock’ of de-financialization (ending rent seeking on consumer), will vastly diminish (a) the size of the financial sector (b) the rents that ‘institutional investors and pension funds’ can extract from consumers. So it will be a vast correction we have not seen in the world before.

    Just WHY this is so is … well, non trivial. But it’s largely a factor of demographics, abilities of those demographics, and AVAILABLE consumption.

    And, yes I can explain it in scary detail, but at present, it’s bedtime…..

    Source date (UTC): 2018-01-01 22:03:00 UTC

  • Will The Economy Correct Again Like 2008 This Year?

    –“Will the economy bubble burst again in 2018 (like the one that happened in 2008)?”– It is a virtual certainty that we will see some sort of massive correction even greater than the 2008 crisis, sometime between now and 2025. And at that time the states will need to bypass the financial system in order to put liquidity into consumer (citizen’s) hands, so that the economy can adapt to the shock. And governments are not yet ready to do this, although Americans can do it fastest. (And some of us are trying to make sure it happens this time around.) Now, the reason this will be difficult, is that we have spent the entire postwar era financializing the economy, and done more so since the advent of petro-dollars, and more so to defeat world communism, and more so since the 2001 crash, and more so since the 2008 crash. (We could have paid off the vast majority of home mortgages in 2008 with the money we have spent SINCE 2008 trying to correct the economy. (Only Galbraith, me, and one other made this argument. Unfortunately, he was the only person of influence, and he died.) Imagine what that would have done to the economy. Unfortunately, that ‘shock’ of de-financialization (ending rent seeking on consumer), will vastly diminish (a) the size of the financial sector (b) the rents that ‘institutional investors and pension funds’ can extract from consumers. So it will be a vast correction we have not seen in the world before. Just WHY this is so is … well, non trivial. But it’s largely a factor of demographics, abilities of those demographics, and AVAILABLE consumption. And, yes I can explain it in scary detail, but at present, it’s bedtime…..

  • Will The Economy Correct Again Like 2008 This Year?

    –“Will the economy bubble burst again in 2018 (like the one that happened in 2008)?”– It is a virtual certainty that we will see some sort of massive correction even greater than the 2008 crisis, sometime between now and 2025. And at that time the states will need to bypass the financial system in order to put liquidity into consumer (citizen’s) hands, so that the economy can adapt to the shock. And governments are not yet ready to do this, although Americans can do it fastest. (And some of us are trying to make sure it happens this time around.) Now, the reason this will be difficult, is that we have spent the entire postwar era financializing the economy, and done more so since the advent of petro-dollars, and more so to defeat world communism, and more so since the 2001 crash, and more so since the 2008 crash. (We could have paid off the vast majority of home mortgages in 2008 with the money we have spent SINCE 2008 trying to correct the economy. (Only Galbraith, me, and one other made this argument. Unfortunately, he was the only person of influence, and he died.) Imagine what that would have done to the economy. Unfortunately, that ‘shock’ of de-financialization (ending rent seeking on consumer), will vastly diminish (a) the size of the financial sector (b) the rents that ‘institutional investors and pension funds’ can extract from consumers. So it will be a vast correction we have not seen in the world before. Just WHY this is so is … well, non trivial. But it’s largely a factor of demographics, abilities of those demographics, and AVAILABLE consumption. And, yes I can explain it in scary detail, but at present, it’s bedtime…..

  • If Every American Lived Ascetically And Devoted Every Spare Penny To Philanthropy, What Would Be The Effects?

    The world would rapidly fall into a vast depression, because IT IS CONSUMPTION THAT CREATES WEALTH.

    Look up ‘fixed pie fallacy’.

    https://www.quora.com/If-every-American-lived-ascetically-and-devoted-every-spare-penny-to-philanthropy-what-would-be-the-effects

  • Why Hasn’t The Us Free Market Converted To Alternative Fuels If They’re So Affordable And Available?

    They aren’t affordable and they aren’t available and are universally a bad investment.

    DO THE MATH.

    Second, read on the Return on Energy Invesment.

    Return on energy is rapidly declining. Meaning that we have captured most of the low hanging fruit of the revolution in energy capture.

    The world runs on energy today the way it ran on food in the past.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-hasnt-the-US-free-market-converted-to-alternative-fuels-if-theyre-so-affordable-and-available

  • My answer to In Laymans terms, how would you define the “free market”?

    My answer to In Laymans terms, how would you define the “free market”? https://www.quora.com/In-Laymans-terms-how-would-you-define-the-free-market/answer/Curt-Doolittle?share=8a8a35d5

    Source date (UTC): 2017-12-30 00:52:13 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/946906735272488971

  • “Do you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”— N

    —“Do you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”— No. 1 – Overpopulation of the untalented classes. 2 – Competition for status, because status increases opportunity. 3 – Factual differences in individual, group, social, political, and religious value in modernity. 4 – Lack of material value of vast sectors of the population – which will only get worse as technology advances.

  • “Do you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”— N

    —“Do you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”— No. 1 – Overpopulation of the untalented classes. 2 – Competition for status, because status increases opportunity. 3 – Factual differences in individual, group, social, political, and religious value in modernity. 4 – Lack of material value of vast sectors of the population – which will only get worse as technology advances.

  • you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”— No. 1

    https://www.quora.com/Do-you-agree-that-greed-is-the-main-source-of-all-problems-we-face-today/answer/Curt-Doolittle?share=fd0ea47a&srid=u4Qv—“Do you agree that greed is the main source of all problems we face today?”—

    No.

    1 – Overpopulation of the untalented classes.

    2 – Competition for status, because status increases opportunity.

    3 – Factual differences in individual, group, social, political, and religious value in modernity.

    4 – Lack of material value of vast sectors of the population – which will only get worse as technology advances.Updated Dec 29, 2017, 10:16 AM

    Source date (UTC): 2017-12-29 10:16:00 UTC