Theme: Incentives

  • All of this is OLD NEWS. If you want to encourage people to prosper by pairing t

    All of this is OLD NEWS. If you want to encourage people to prosper by pairing their skills to those necessary to serve the market that they understand, then yes. If you mean very bright people are fooled by sophism, innumeracy, pseudoscience – then yes.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-27 20:31:54 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1078388023274946562

    Reply addressees: @nntaleb

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076845397795065856


    IN REPLY TO:

    @nntaleb

    “IQ” THREAD

    “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

    1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076845397795065856

  • Lastly, we go to university etc to avoid the marketplace (‘work’). This is the v

    Lastly, we go to university etc to avoid the marketplace (‘work’). This is the value of higher education: to provide a non-market means of identifying selection. In this sense your criticism is correct. In the sense that you’re criticizing IQ measurements, you’re WRONG …PERIOD.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-27 20:29:33 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1078387429609037824

    Reply addressees: @nntaleb

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076845397795065856


    IN REPLY TO:

    @nntaleb

    “IQ” THREAD

    “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

    1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076845397795065856

  • CHRISTMAS THOUGHTS War and pillaging are the most profitable entrepreneurial und

    CHRISTMAS THOUGHTS

    War and pillaging are the most profitable entrepreneurial undertakings that a group of men can undertake. Not only because one brings home the dividends, but because one can take territory, reduce competitors, and create dependents who may be taxed by your family, tribe, clan, and nation. Policing is expensive but pillaging is wonderful. Look at the Prussians, Napoleon the British, and Caesar…..

    So this year, hang an ornament on the tree, burn a yule log, share a family feast, and sharpen your weapons.

    Because war and pillaging make christmas possible every day of the year!


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-24 09:15:00 UTC

  • I have read it. I understand it. (not that there is anything deep). I understand

    I have read it. I understand it. (not that there is anything deep). I understand it is sophism. I understand the incentive for that sophism. And I understand the competing scientific explanation, which I’ve given a pretty clear overview of here. Read science instead. No More Lies


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-21 14:14:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076118756072534017

    Reply addressees: @Dick71224996 @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @TrueDilTom

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076117505037365248


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

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    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076117505037365248

  • So even the the phrase ‘reality is socially constructed’ is an attempted fraud.

    So even the the phrase ‘reality is socially constructed’ is an attempted fraud. The model we use to determine action in reality is and must be produced as a market good like any other, and is limited to the supply and demand of that market – like any other. However…


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-21 12:41:49 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076095394357170176

    Reply addressees: @Dick71224996 @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @TrueDilTom

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076041902116360192


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

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    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076041902116360192

  • 14) … and CONFIRMATION and DECEIT are cheaper than investigation, falsificatio

    14) … and CONFIRMATION and DECEIT are cheaper than investigation, falsification, and action in the real world. In other words, why lie EXCEPT to entice people into moral hazard? The answer is simple: there isn’t any reason except competence at coercion and deceit.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-21 12:28:09 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076091956760055809

    Reply addressees: @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592


    IN REPLY TO:

    Unknown author

    @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996 It’s bad enough we have left wing liars taking advantage of women and the underclass, but it’s hard to understand why there are those of you who want to take advantage of lost, underachieving young man and throw them in the degenerative maelstrom with the women and fools.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592


    IN REPLY TO:

    @curtdoolittle

    @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996 It’s bad enough we have left wing liars taking advantage of women and the underclass, but it’s hard to understand why there are those of you who want to take advantage of lost, underachieving young man and throw them in the degenerative maelstrom with the women and fools.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592

  • Why Josh and Tom have trouble understanding this rather obvious dichotomy betwee

    Why Josh and Tom have trouble understanding this rather obvious dichotomy between truth/error/lies is INCENTIVE, is evidence of their justification of desirable, convenient, or utilitarian lying. End Abrahamic Supernaturalism, Sophism and Pseudoscience forever: NO MORE LIES.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-21 11:49:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1076082296766251013

    Reply addressees: @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592


    IN REPLY TO:

    Unknown author

    @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996 It’s bad enough we have left wing liars taking advantage of women and the underclass, but it’s hard to understand why there are those of you who want to take advantage of lost, underachieving young man and throw them in the degenerative maelstrom with the women and fools.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592


    IN REPLY TO:

    @curtdoolittle

    @TrueDilTom @justecar @Imperius__13 @JohnMarkSays @torinmccabe @DataDistribute @MahmoudZaini @Dick71224996 It’s bad enough we have left wing liars taking advantage of women and the underclass, but it’s hard to understand why there are those of you who want to take advantage of lost, underachieving young man and throw them in the degenerative maelstrom with the women and fools.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/1075890809357123592

  • THE DRIVE OF MEN TO ACT VS TO DREAM AND CHIT CHAT Of self interest, opportunity

    THE DRIVE OF MEN TO ACT VS TO DREAM AND CHIT CHAT

    Of self interest, opportunity to profit, and material change, it is very unlikely that ‘spiritual’ anything will drive men as much.

    We know this from all of history. Spirit makes men chatter. Opportunity makes men war.

    We go to war for opportunity. We stay at war because we love it, and we stay in formation because we love the men next to us.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-19 09:26:00 UTC

  • SELF-MEDICATION Michael E. Darden, Nicholas W. Papageorge NBER Working Paper No.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w25371RATIONAL SELF-MEDICATION

    Michael E. Darden, Nicholas W. Papageorge

    NBER Working Paper No. 25371

    Issued in December 2018

    NBER Program(s):Health Economics

    We develop a theory of rational self-medication. The idea is that forward-looking individuals, lacking access to better treatment options, attempt to manage the symptoms of mental and physical pain outside of formal medical care. They use substances that relieve symptoms in the short run but that may be harmful in the long run. For example, heavy drinking could alleviate current symptoms of depression but could also exacerbate future depression or lead to alcoholism. Rational self-medication suggests that, when presented with a safer, more effective treatment, individuals will substitute towards it. To investigate, we use forty years of longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study and leverage the exogenous introduction of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). We demonstrate an economically meaningful reduction in heavy alcohol consumption for men when SSRIs became available. Additionally, we show that addiction to alcohol inhibits substitution. Our results suggest a role for rational self-medication in understanding the origin of substance abuse. Furthermore, our work suggests that punitive policies targeting substance abuse may backfire, leading to substitution towards even more harmful substances to self-medicate. In contrast, policies promoting medical innovation that provide safer treatment options could obviate the need to self-medicate with dangerous or addictive substances.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w25371


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-18 11:17:00 UTC

  • THE PARADIGM FOR SOLVING AI IS NOT CALCULATION BUT COMPETITION We try to solve t

    THE PARADIGM FOR SOLVING AI IS NOT CALCULATION BUT COMPETITION

    We try to solve the problem of artificial intelligence using the wrong paradigm – a problem in economics we refer to as ‘mathiness’ – when the solution from bayesian accounting to the evolution of consciousness, is not calculation but competition.

    The other ‘great accident’ is the bilateral revolution, and the competition via necessity of coordination within the nervous system, followed by the division of labor and competition between the functions of our minds as predator and prey.

    We don’t think of neural economy, or bayesian networks as competitions at the neural-path level, nor do we think of consciousness as the result of memory and competition in a division of labor between layers and functions. The problem of an ethical and moral machine is one that must decide a competition from the forecasting of a decision, and the negative reinforcement of decision networks that lead to involuntary transfers (harms).

    I understood this from my work in the early 80’s on AI for military games. But the technology wasn’t available at the time to do anything about it. I don’t find any particular mystery to artificial intelligence other than the volume of memory and the necessity of an internal grammar or language to assist in a hierarchy continuous recursive competition between forecasts(predictions).

    My open questions are the amount of memory required if we want both the benefits of mechanical memory, and the power of reason, without the economy of imprecision. I mean, look at the experiments with chimpanzee image processing vs human.

    Or put differently, in order to FURTHER divide intelligence more efficiently we might very well have sacrificed memory precision for another ‘n-lateral’ revolution using language and the competition between minds using language.

    The problem of continuous recursive disambiguation into serial speech requires not the preservation of state (chimp memory) for internal consideration, but the recursive passing of state (human memory) so that we can serialize state into a continuously recursively disambiguous stream of expressions between individuals. We then evolved the ability to plan from this process.

    It is very hard to try to remember what it’s like to think without language. It’s like trying to measure without numbers. you can do it but only to some rather simple degree. Language is just another form of calculation. Or rather more easily understood, calculation with measurements is just a reductive form of language.

    The consistency throughout the hierarchy is competition (market) between memory and perception, the competition of the neural economy, competition between neural forecasts, competition between reactions or choice of actions, competition between perceptions and minds, and ability to calculate using language (grammars).

    It’s this ‘market competition’ that is the model not only for cognition, but for all of social science that results from that cognition.

    We were fooled by mathiness and justificationism that results from the mathematics – the most simple of logics: the single constant relation provided by the single property of a positional name. Mathematics requires very little difference between construction and deduction. Logics break down rapidly after first or second order. Games do as well. Reason does as well. Markets(competition) doesn’t break down. -Cheers )


    Source date (UTC): 2018-12-18 08:06:00 UTC