Why Global Capital Hates Sovereign Default https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/27/why-global-capital-hates-sovereign-default/
Source date (UTC): 2020-05-27 04:26:56 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1265499706916065293
Why Global Capital Hates Sovereign Default https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/27/why-global-capital-hates-sovereign-default/
Source date (UTC): 2020-05-27 04:26:56 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1265499706916065293
Dec 19, 2019, 12:09 PM by Michael Churchill Global capital hates defaults because they puncture the whole perma-debt system that keeps overall interest rates lower than they would be otherwise. It’s socialization of risk taken to the meta-level. The most obvious example at present is Argentina, whose debt profile is ludicrously unsustainable. They are a ward of the IMF. Without foreign help Argentine dollar bonds would collapse to zero overnight. But you know with smoke and mirrors you can sort of keep them trading — sometimes at 40 cents on the dollar, sometimes at 75. But either way nothing collapses. To give an idea of scale, Argentina’s foreign-owned dollar bonds are about $150 billion face value. So it’s a lot … enough to create a mini tidal wave if they went to zero … but not the end of the world. The knock on effect would be the removal of the safety net. So everybody else’s yields on dollar bonds would go from 3% to 4.5% right quick. Other countries in shaky terrain are Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Egypt and Lebanon. That said, MOST emerging markets are quite solvent. Basically 97% of the other EMs not mentioned above are fine. Much better than 20 years ago.
CD: I want to point out that it’s in the US’s strategic interest now to NOT generate global stability. And in particular, causing a collapse in Pakistan would be extremely useful for much of the world.
Dec 19, 2019, 12:09 PM by Michael Churchill Global capital hates defaults because they puncture the whole perma-debt system that keeps overall interest rates lower than they would be otherwise. It’s socialization of risk taken to the meta-level. The most obvious example at present is Argentina, whose debt profile is ludicrously unsustainable. They are a ward of the IMF. Without foreign help Argentine dollar bonds would collapse to zero overnight. But you know with smoke and mirrors you can sort of keep them trading — sometimes at 40 cents on the dollar, sometimes at 75. But either way nothing collapses. To give an idea of scale, Argentina’s foreign-owned dollar bonds are about $150 billion face value. So it’s a lot … enough to create a mini tidal wave if they went to zero … but not the end of the world. The knock on effect would be the removal of the safety net. So everybody else’s yields on dollar bonds would go from 3% to 4.5% right quick. Other countries in shaky terrain are Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Egypt and Lebanon. That said, MOST emerging markets are quite solvent. Basically 97% of the other EMs not mentioned above are fine. Much better than 20 years ago.
CD: I want to point out that it’s in the US’s strategic interest now to NOT generate global stability. And in particular, causing a collapse in Pakistan would be extremely useful for much of the world.
Dec 31, 2019, 4:52 PM —“Between the US, the EU, Russia, and China, what do you think is the most capitalist society?”— The Capitalism vs Communism dichotomy is a fabrication of the Marxists to distract from the reality that: (a) all states must practice mixed economies, with state centralization solving market limitations at the cost of poor capital efficiency and high corruption, until private capital can decentralize production and increase capital efficiency and decrease corruption; Advanced economies must innovate and require markets (private sector) majority production, and backward economies must catch up and create markets by state (public sector) majority production. (b) all states capable of collecting revenues either by investment and returns, taxation, interest collection, profiting from direct management, or all of the above, can choose whether to spend the income on consumption (redistribution) or production( further investment). Those states that are unable to collect revenues can militarize the population (as did the soviets) and minimize wages so that the maximum resources can be directed to production of commons. (c) the question is whether one operates by rule of law that naturally produces markets, rule by legislation negotiated between classes, or rule by regulation by monopoly bureaucracy, or rule by command (discretion) by dictator. ANGLOSPHERE countries are by far – without even a close competitor – dependent upon rule of law, rule by legislation, and state funding basic research, but almost no state involvement in production – why? Because judges were always independent professionals and less subject to corruption. Mixed Economy, Favoring Private Sector, and Rule of Law. CONTINENTAL – countries practice the napoleonic law of rule by legislation and rule by regulation. Why? Because french judges were appointed or purchased their positions and napoleon could not trust them to refrain from discretionary rulings (making up law). Mixed Economy, Favoring mixed public private sectors, and Rule of Legislation. POST SOVIET – Countries are cripple by soviet legal codes, but while russia and ukraine have reformed their laws (ukrainian law is quite good really), the problem in both countries has been reducing corruption that was endemic under the soviets in all walks of life. Although we must compliment Putin on tripling the number of cases in in the courts, even if he has not succeeded in preventing coercive thefts of businesses by state members (I could not find a single company to buy in Moscow because they must keep ‘fake’ books in order to prevent people in the government from conspiring to take over the business by confiscatory corruption.) Mixed economy, Both Heavy public and Private sectors, and rule by legislation and rule by Regulation INDIA. Indian law is fine. Like everything else in india, the engine of indian order is not the government but culture, tradition, and the family. Russia crosses eleven time zones but it’s still a country. America is an empire and each state or region a different country. Europe is trying and failing to repeat the american experiment and failing at the same time america is failing. India likewise is a continent and an empire not a country. India is unable to devote sufficient resources (for reasons we do not understand) to either providing speedy (timely) justice, or to producing sufficient infrastructure, given her people’s rates of reproduction. India lacks china’s authoritarianism and remains familialism which is both beautiful on the one hand but slows her rate of adaptation. Long term india will do wonderfully. Mixed Economy, Favoring Private Sector, Rule by Legislation CHINA has never practiced any semblance of law in the western sense, and instead has practiced arbitrary rule: Rule by Command, and Rule by Regulation and this seems to be the preference of the chinese people. China was a very poor (still is) backward country having made the mistake to reject modernity, then to embrace communism in order to prevent the south from seceding, leaving beijing in the north to rule poverty, and the commercial south to separate and join modernity. Mao would not tolerate this. After the failure of communism China saw the failure of the Soviets, and then the american defeat of the Iraqis, and this combination created today’s Chinese strategy of restoring her traditional position as the central power in east asia – despite all her neighbors fearing that china will also return to violence. Unlike india, china has a long history of monopoly authoritarian rule, and even more so, has the power of the Red Army (which really governs china’s factions). The chinese have a long history of pragmatism and reason – and almost no sense of the value of human life, and nothing approaching indian or european ethics. Secondly the chinese people are rather industrious and hard-working. So between authoritarian hierarchy, a means of enforcing political will with the army, a literate and intelligent hard working workforce, an endless supply of cheap labor, and endless debt capacity, and willingness to have an economic crash, china has been able to maximize state investment, migration of people into the workforce, and expansion of the military, and then to clamp down in response to an end to the boom. There is no question that for china, this is the optimum method of ‘catching up from behind’. Mixed Economy, Heavily Favoring State Sector, Rule by Command The most capitalist countries are those with the most rule of law and the most private sector. (anglosphere) The Most** mixed economies** are those with rule of legislation, a mix of private and state sector, (continental) The most **command economies **are those with the least rule of law and the most state sector (china) China has more successfully used debt capacity than any country in the world. This does not mean it is capitalist, since capitalism means bias to the private sector and minimizing the state sector.
Dec 31, 2019, 4:52 PM —“Between the US, the EU, Russia, and China, what do you think is the most capitalist society?”— The Capitalism vs Communism dichotomy is a fabrication of the Marxists to distract from the reality that: (a) all states must practice mixed economies, with state centralization solving market limitations at the cost of poor capital efficiency and high corruption, until private capital can decentralize production and increase capital efficiency and decrease corruption; Advanced economies must innovate and require markets (private sector) majority production, and backward economies must catch up and create markets by state (public sector) majority production. (b) all states capable of collecting revenues either by investment and returns, taxation, interest collection, profiting from direct management, or all of the above, can choose whether to spend the income on consumption (redistribution) or production( further investment). Those states that are unable to collect revenues can militarize the population (as did the soviets) and minimize wages so that the maximum resources can be directed to production of commons. (c) the question is whether one operates by rule of law that naturally produces markets, rule by legislation negotiated between classes, or rule by regulation by monopoly bureaucracy, or rule by command (discretion) by dictator. ANGLOSPHERE countries are by far – without even a close competitor – dependent upon rule of law, rule by legislation, and state funding basic research, but almost no state involvement in production – why? Because judges were always independent professionals and less subject to corruption. Mixed Economy, Favoring Private Sector, and Rule of Law. CONTINENTAL – countries practice the napoleonic law of rule by legislation and rule by regulation. Why? Because french judges were appointed or purchased their positions and napoleon could not trust them to refrain from discretionary rulings (making up law). Mixed Economy, Favoring mixed public private sectors, and Rule of Legislation. POST SOVIET – Countries are cripple by soviet legal codes, but while russia and ukraine have reformed their laws (ukrainian law is quite good really), the problem in both countries has been reducing corruption that was endemic under the soviets in all walks of life. Although we must compliment Putin on tripling the number of cases in in the courts, even if he has not succeeded in preventing coercive thefts of businesses by state members (I could not find a single company to buy in Moscow because they must keep ‘fake’ books in order to prevent people in the government from conspiring to take over the business by confiscatory corruption.) Mixed economy, Both Heavy public and Private sectors, and rule by legislation and rule by Regulation INDIA. Indian law is fine. Like everything else in india, the engine of indian order is not the government but culture, tradition, and the family. Russia crosses eleven time zones but it’s still a country. America is an empire and each state or region a different country. Europe is trying and failing to repeat the american experiment and failing at the same time america is failing. India likewise is a continent and an empire not a country. India is unable to devote sufficient resources (for reasons we do not understand) to either providing speedy (timely) justice, or to producing sufficient infrastructure, given her people’s rates of reproduction. India lacks china’s authoritarianism and remains familialism which is both beautiful on the one hand but slows her rate of adaptation. Long term india will do wonderfully. Mixed Economy, Favoring Private Sector, Rule by Legislation CHINA has never practiced any semblance of law in the western sense, and instead has practiced arbitrary rule: Rule by Command, and Rule by Regulation and this seems to be the preference of the chinese people. China was a very poor (still is) backward country having made the mistake to reject modernity, then to embrace communism in order to prevent the south from seceding, leaving beijing in the north to rule poverty, and the commercial south to separate and join modernity. Mao would not tolerate this. After the failure of communism China saw the failure of the Soviets, and then the american defeat of the Iraqis, and this combination created today’s Chinese strategy of restoring her traditional position as the central power in east asia – despite all her neighbors fearing that china will also return to violence. Unlike india, china has a long history of monopoly authoritarian rule, and even more so, has the power of the Red Army (which really governs china’s factions). The chinese have a long history of pragmatism and reason – and almost no sense of the value of human life, and nothing approaching indian or european ethics. Secondly the chinese people are rather industrious and hard-working. So between authoritarian hierarchy, a means of enforcing political will with the army, a literate and intelligent hard working workforce, an endless supply of cheap labor, and endless debt capacity, and willingness to have an economic crash, china has been able to maximize state investment, migration of people into the workforce, and expansion of the military, and then to clamp down in response to an end to the boom. There is no question that for china, this is the optimum method of ‘catching up from behind’. Mixed Economy, Heavily Favoring State Sector, Rule by Command The most capitalist countries are those with the most rule of law and the most private sector. (anglosphere) The Most** mixed economies** are those with rule of legislation, a mix of private and state sector, (continental) The most **command economies **are those with the least rule of law and the most state sector (china) China has more successfully used debt capacity than any country in the world. This does not mean it is capitalist, since capitalism means bias to the private sector and minimizing the state sector.
Jan 1, 2020, 8:47 PM Legal PerspectiveTrue: “The purpose of the corporation is to do anything lawful.” And “Corporations are real, shareholders are a fiction.” In other words, shareholders are not owners. Companies do not work to maximize shareholder value. That is a fiction to sell investors. A management team balances brand awareness, market share, customers, employees, bankers, investors, and vendors, each of which is competing to maximize their take of the profits if their are any. Thoughts:
(a) Owners ‘invest’ to obtain income and appreciation but lack liquidity.
(b) Shareholders function as lenders who purchase liquidity and opportunity for dividends and appreciation – they are not owners, that is the myth.
(c) From the company’s perspective, dividends and appreciation are the cost of maintaining borrowing capacity in capital markets so that opportunities can be seized by rapid appeal to capital markets.
(d) Boards of other than owners are a wast of time money and energy – a kabuki theater – and instead, companies should be, and are, insured to act in the interest of their contract with the shareholders. The very best you can say about boards is (i) you can pay people for relationships, assistance, and information. (ii) when you are unsure and want to bounce ideas off peers rather than employees but be sure it won’t leak, they’re useful. (iii) preparing for board meetings makes sure that you and your team are on the same page and understand your own business. (iv) I use my boards exclusively to test my ideas and rarely do anything if I can’t convince them unanimously. This tempers my too-high risk tolerance. It gives me political cover with the staff and others if I make a mistake.
(e) It’s not even clear that financial reports other than to auditors and insurers are of any value other than in selling to lenders (shareholders). Randomly select financial reports from your favorite companies. You will learn far more from analyst calls.
(f) Trying to maintain or improve shareholder value, is a terrible practice because investment cycles (capital requirements necessary for returns) have been increasing, and the division of production distribution and trade fragmenting, but lifespan of companies are decreasing – for this very reason. Innovators dilemmas everywhere. No one tries to maximize shareholder value. That’s nonsense. You try to preserve it. the objective of nearly every business is to preserve it’s existence as a going concern for all those involved: customers, employees, owners, vendors, investors. It is very hard to build a business that produces a durable income stream because the customer vendor employee network is the most difficult organization to produce.
(g) There is no reason whatsoever that companies should direct resources to ‘charities’ or ‘movements’, instead of requiring such donations come from individuals. Social responsibly is a code word for rent-seeking because the government is incapable of providing results. The current condition is that companies are frequently blackmailed if they don’t contribute to certain causes. That’s an injustice. That one shall do no harm is the best an organization can do and is the best therefore we can ask them to do. Lastly unless you’ve run a company of at least say, 50M, and preferably over 100M you have no idea just how difficult it is to produce a profit. (i) My primary complaint is that companies do not themselves maintain accounting for operations (cash: profit and loss from operations), management (ops plus overhead), owners (ops, overhead, assets, and yes, market share ), lenders (EBITDA), and the state (taxes, amortization, and depreciation). Most executives I’ve consulted, companies I’ve acquired, or accounting departments I’ve fought with, have too poor a grasp of operations and obscure it by conflating accounting data so to obscure normal volatility and variation in risk from investors and lenders, and to minimize taxes. Drive employee quality, operations, marketshare, and leave everything else to finance and accounting. Money is just another resource provided by vendors.
Jan 1, 2020, 8:47 PM Legal PerspectiveTrue: “The purpose of the corporation is to do anything lawful.” And “Corporations are real, shareholders are a fiction.” In other words, shareholders are not owners. Companies do not work to maximize shareholder value. That is a fiction to sell investors. A management team balances brand awareness, market share, customers, employees, bankers, investors, and vendors, each of which is competing to maximize their take of the profits if their are any. Thoughts:
(a) Owners ‘invest’ to obtain income and appreciation but lack liquidity.
(b) Shareholders function as lenders who purchase liquidity and opportunity for dividends and appreciation – they are not owners, that is the myth.
(c) From the company’s perspective, dividends and appreciation are the cost of maintaining borrowing capacity in capital markets so that opportunities can be seized by rapid appeal to capital markets.
(d) Boards of other than owners are a wast of time money and energy – a kabuki theater – and instead, companies should be, and are, insured to act in the interest of their contract with the shareholders. The very best you can say about boards is (i) you can pay people for relationships, assistance, and information. (ii) when you are unsure and want to bounce ideas off peers rather than employees but be sure it won’t leak, they’re useful. (iii) preparing for board meetings makes sure that you and your team are on the same page and understand your own business. (iv) I use my boards exclusively to test my ideas and rarely do anything if I can’t convince them unanimously. This tempers my too-high risk tolerance. It gives me political cover with the staff and others if I make a mistake.
(e) It’s not even clear that financial reports other than to auditors and insurers are of any value other than in selling to lenders (shareholders). Randomly select financial reports from your favorite companies. You will learn far more from analyst calls.
(f) Trying to maintain or improve shareholder value, is a terrible practice because investment cycles (capital requirements necessary for returns) have been increasing, and the division of production distribution and trade fragmenting, but lifespan of companies are decreasing – for this very reason. Innovators dilemmas everywhere. No one tries to maximize shareholder value. That’s nonsense. You try to preserve it. the objective of nearly every business is to preserve it’s existence as a going concern for all those involved: customers, employees, owners, vendors, investors. It is very hard to build a business that produces a durable income stream because the customer vendor employee network is the most difficult organization to produce.
(g) There is no reason whatsoever that companies should direct resources to ‘charities’ or ‘movements’, instead of requiring such donations come from individuals. Social responsibly is a code word for rent-seeking because the government is incapable of providing results. The current condition is that companies are frequently blackmailed if they don’t contribute to certain causes. That’s an injustice. That one shall do no harm is the best an organization can do and is the best therefore we can ask them to do. Lastly unless you’ve run a company of at least say, 50M, and preferably over 100M you have no idea just how difficult it is to produce a profit. (i) My primary complaint is that companies do not themselves maintain accounting for operations (cash: profit and loss from operations), management (ops plus overhead), owners (ops, overhead, assets, and yes, market share ), lenders (EBITDA), and the state (taxes, amortization, and depreciation). Most executives I’ve consulted, companies I’ve acquired, or accounting departments I’ve fought with, have too poor a grasp of operations and obscure it by conflating accounting data so to obscure normal volatility and variation in risk from investors and lenders, and to minimize taxes. Drive employee quality, operations, marketshare, and leave everything else to finance and accounting. Money is just another resource provided by vendors.
Jan 4, 2020, 10:43 AM
—“Women crave privilege and license. Men desire liberty and justice. Prove me wrong.”—Joshua Fox
Turn that statement into economic language: women desire consumption and men desire opportunity for production – the consequence of which is trading sex and reproduction for resources: a division of labor organized by voluntary exchanges.
—“To the root!”–Joshua Fox
Human behavior is all physics. It has to be. Economics is just physics with debts and credits. Our consciousness is just a vehicle for negotiating terms of cooperation. Cooperation is just a means of obtaining higher returns on investments of time and calories. Marriage – especially universal marriage – is the optimum compromise and the optimum means of calculating reproduction. The feminists are under the impression that men will behave by current means if the compromise of marriage and therefore exchange disappears. But if universal marriage and exchange of productivity for sex and offspring without imposing costs on others no longer exists, men will either invent new ways or revert to old ways that do not require cooperation. Women choose individually. Men choose collectively. Marriage and family is the compromise.
Jan 4, 2020, 10:43 AM
—“Women crave privilege and license. Men desire liberty and justice. Prove me wrong.”—Joshua Fox
Turn that statement into economic language: women desire consumption and men desire opportunity for production – the consequence of which is trading sex and reproduction for resources: a division of labor organized by voluntary exchanges.
—“To the root!”–Joshua Fox
Human behavior is all physics. It has to be. Economics is just physics with debts and credits. Our consciousness is just a vehicle for negotiating terms of cooperation. Cooperation is just a means of obtaining higher returns on investments of time and calories. Marriage – especially universal marriage – is the optimum compromise and the optimum means of calculating reproduction. The feminists are under the impression that men will behave by current means if the compromise of marriage and therefore exchange disappears. But if universal marriage and exchange of productivity for sex and offspring without imposing costs on others no longer exists, men will either invent new ways or revert to old ways that do not require cooperation. Women choose individually. Men choose collectively. Marriage and family is the compromise.
Jan 4, 2020, 11:21 AM
“The most controversial proposition is to extend progressive taxation such that we tax by density because density decreases opportunity costs.”