Curt Doolittle

Theme: Governance

  • NATE SILVER TELLS US SOMETHING WE KNOW: POLLS MANUFACTURE OPINION AND THEIR REPO

    NATE SILVER TELLS US SOMETHING WE KNOW: POLLS MANUFACTURE OPINION AND THEIR REPORTING IS HIGHLY BIASED.

    —“[We fail to comprehend what Nate is telling us:] the same tools and models that allowed him to do good forecasting can be used for forensic purposes. And forensically, they’re telling him there was systematic bias by the polling firms.”—

    What he is really saying is that polling firms are GETTING BETTER at manufacturing opinion and INSERTING MORE BIAS in their results.

    What he is going to tell us next, is who biases their polls.

    —“The fault, Silver claimed, was with the polling: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that pre-election polls underestimated how well Conservatives would do and overestimated Labour’s result,” the statistician guru wrote in the wee hours of the morning. (He also overestimated the Liberal Democrats’ result by roughly 20 seats).

    But the problem went beyond the UK. “The World May Have A Polling Problem,” Silver asserted. “In fact, it’s become harder to find an election in which the polls did all that well.” Silver went on to cite four examples where the polls had failed to provide an accurate forecast of the election outcome: the Scottish independence referendum, the 2014 U.S. midterms, the Israeli legislative elections, and even the 2012 U.S. presidential election, where “Obama beat the final polling averages by about 3 points nationwide.”

    “[T]here are lots of reasons to worry about the state of the polling industry,” Silver concluded, citing a range of factors. “There may be more difficult times ahead for the polling industry.”—

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-09 04:35:00 UTC

  • Why Were All The Polls In The 2015 Uk General Election So Different From The Results?

    THE CORRECT ANSWER
    Nate Silver is probably the world’s leading analyst of polls.  His opinion, stated yesterday, is that

    –“The World May Have A Polling Problem,” Silver asserted. “In fact, it’s become harder to find an election in which the polls did all that well.” Silver went on to cite four examples where the polls had failed to provide an accurate forecast of the election outcome: the Scottish independence referendum, the 2014 U.S. midterms, the Israeli legislative elections, and even the 2012 U.S. presidential election, where “Obama beat the final polling averages by about 3 points nationwide.”
    “[T]here are lots of reasons to worry about the state of the polling industry,” Silver concluded, citing a range of factors. “There may be more difficult times ahead for the polling industry.”—



    What he is saying is that there is conscious, and increasing bias in the polls, and that he will be able to use forensic statistics to determine who is biasing polls by how much.

    The purpose of polling whenever results are reported is to manufacture opinion.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-were-all-the-polls-in-the-2015-UK-general-election-so-different-from-the-results

  • Why Were All The Polls In The 2015 Uk General Election So Different From The Results?

    THE CORRECT ANSWER
    Nate Silver is probably the world’s leading analyst of polls.  His opinion, stated yesterday, is that

    –“The World May Have A Polling Problem,” Silver asserted. “In fact, it’s become harder to find an election in which the polls did all that well.” Silver went on to cite four examples where the polls had failed to provide an accurate forecast of the election outcome: the Scottish independence referendum, the 2014 U.S. midterms, the Israeli legislative elections, and even the 2012 U.S. presidential election, where “Obama beat the final polling averages by about 3 points nationwide.”
    “[T]here are lots of reasons to worry about the state of the polling industry,” Silver concluded, citing a range of factors. “There may be more difficult times ahead for the polling industry.”—



    What he is saying is that there is conscious, and increasing bias in the polls, and that he will be able to use forensic statistics to determine who is biasing polls by how much.

    The purpose of polling whenever results are reported is to manufacture opinion.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-were-all-the-polls-in-the-2015-UK-general-election-so-different-from-the-results

  • What is a nation but a large family with frontiers? But it serves the interest o

    What is a nation but a large family with frontiers? But it serves the interest of politicians to convert family private property into a corporation and to sell off the assets, for their benefit.

    That is what statism does really.

    (H/T Aaron Kahland)

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-07 03:17:00 UTC

  • WHY NATIONS FALL (profound) (Taleb) (cycles) (rule of law) Food for thought, sin

    WHY NATIONS FALL

    (profound) (Taleb) (cycles) (rule of law)

    Food for thought, since the first political scientist (machiavelli) didn’t provide the answer:

    As far as I know, states fail for a number of reasons that are obvious in retrospect.

    1) Plague and starvation.

    2) Weather pattern / climate change.

    3) Disruption of trade routes.

    4) Exceeding institutional means of organising production and controlling consumption.

    5) Frigility from the inability to adapt due to accumulated rents.

    6) Over extension or exhaustion from war.

    7) Conquest, genocide and plundering.

    8) Immigration, insufficient reproduction, and outbreeding.

    Of these, except for 1 and 2, are political failures caused by the same problems we face in democracy: accumulated rent seeking instead of accumulated investment in risk mitigation.

    Or what Taleb refers to as Fragility.

    In other words: malinvestment.

    The reason I make this argument is that there is only one institutional defense against the accumulation of Fragility: rule of law, universal standing in defence of private and commons, and the articulation in property rights of a total prohibition on free riding in all its forms: violence, fraud, free riding, privatization of commons, socialization of losses, and conspiracy; and that such prohibition enforcing against all forms of property: institutional commons, normative commons, phyical commons, private commons (corporate), personal property, body, mind, mate and kin.

    Fragility is the product of the failure of the organic common law to prevent the accumulation of Malinvestment by maintaining a total prohibition on free riding.

    ( Hence my support of this blog.)

    The western competitive advantage in economic and technical velocity lies in the rule of law, the independent judiciary, the jury, property rights, universal standing, and our unique emphasis on objective truth telling in all walks of life, because this system provides the least opportunity for the development of rents.

    We can see the twentieth century as an organized effort to undermine truth telling by both the academy, intellectuals and the state.

    Grammar, Rhetoric, Witness and Testimony, and with the advent of science: ‘e-prime’ and operational language, are necessary skills by which we learn to speak truthfully. Since it is not natural for man. ( It is no mystery why English speakers developed analytic philosophy, the contemporary scientific method, and computer programming.). Man evolved language to negotiate, not describe.

    Westerners discovered truth.

    That is the secret of the west.

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev,Ukraine

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-05 06:58:00 UTC

  • “Conservatism since Burke has been defined (in part) by the principle that was m

    —“Conservatism since Burke has been defined (in part) by the principle that was must first understand and deal with reality as it exists before we can create the reality that we want.”—Eric Field

    Perfect. Going to use that often.

    Hence my argument that libertarianism is rationalist and justificationary, and conservatism scientific and explanatory, and socialism pseudoscientific and deceptive.

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-04 08:36:00 UTC

  • Dissent in Russia: Putin’s Propaganda Machine (video)

    https://news.vice.com/video/silencing-dissent-in-russia-putins-propaganda-machine-full-length?utm_source=vicenewstwitterSilencing Dissent in Russia: Putin’s Propaganda Machine

    (video)

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-02 05:58:00 UTC

  • BALTIMORE I’m prefacing this with my usual “I don’t care about race, I care abou

    BALTIMORE

    I’m prefacing this with my usual “I don’t care about race, I care about people competing in racial blocks, voting in racial blocks, and about getting median IQ over 106 – which appears necessary for liberty.”

    —“Baltimore is typical of many Midwestern and Northern cities, whose demographics were forever changed by the great black migration of the twentieth century. Not unexpectedly we found a cognitive discontinuity at the city line. Surprising, however, was its magnitude. Whereas suburban mean IQs (86 for blacks, 99 for whites) conform more or less to national norms, city IQs are dreadfully low. With a mean IQ of 76, inner-city blacks fall about 0.6 SD below the African American average nationally. More than a third have death-penalty immunity on grounds of mental retardation. The inner-city white mean of 86 is nearly a full standard deviation below the national white average.”—

    The point here being the last: –” The inner-city white mean of 86 is nearly a full standard deviation below the national white average.”–

    There is a reason we defend our elites, and a reason for the racism of the lower middle and upper proletarian classes: its in their interests in every temporal dimension.

    Under aristocracy, and under nationalism, we can assist one another in the advancement of our families without the sacrifice of dysgenia. Aristocratic eugnenics favor ALL GROUPS, ALL RACES, ALL TRIBES over time. Dysgenic democratic socialism favors only the bottom groups at the expense of the top groups over time.

    This is the correct class analysis that marx worked desperately to obscure.

    EDIT

    In response to messages: the reason for low IQ in Baltimore is white flight followed by black flight.

    The bad drives out the good regardless of color.

    Source date (UTC): 2015-05-02 05:30:00 UTC

  • Untitled

    Why Putin’s ‘Russification’ Campaign Against the Baltics Should Be Big News for Us

    Source date (UTC): 2015-04-29 13:01:00 UTC

  • (While the USA may not be helping ukraine ENOUGH, any impression that the USA is

    (While the USA may not be helping ukraine ENOUGH, any impression that the USA is not helping Ukraine at all, is falsified by the absurd number of young, fit, extremely muscular men in fatigue pants ordering beef at local restaurants talking about their travel plans to and from US military bases. Made a little more obvious by the few nerdy older guys running around with DOD secret stickers on laptops. And made even more obvious by their ignorance.)

    Source date (UTC): 2015-04-24 05:40:00 UTC