Theme: Governance

OVERPLAYING THEIR HAND

by Alexander Brown

(OMG Alexander Brown is back!! )

Two things are clear to me over Qassem. Major General Qassem Soleimani served his master Khomenie, was loyal, did some very disgusting things while at it, and overplayed his hand with regards to the Trump administration. For all that violations against foreign powers ( mainly the United States and regional allies Israel + Saudi Arabia ), Qassem deserved to die and was duly marked for death. The when, why, and how that execution, was simply a matter of time. So that, his miscalculation over US territory in Iraq while spearheading Iranian foreign policy in same country, spelt his doom as would be expected by watchers of these events. He was foolish to not realise that he could have been FOUND, FIXED and FINISHED so accurately, there need to be no soldier on the ground to do it directly. Question is, in reciprocity, could Iran do same to ANY US/Israeli/Saudi general? Why not?

Capability issues? Operational challenges? Dreading the cyclical retaliation?

Two. The Iranian regime as it is today, is not necessarily serving the interest of Iran; the Iranian people; the region; and is not acting as a respectful member of the existing international structure, systems, and or order. It may be argued that the existing world architecture is in itself distasteful, and require reform +/- an overthrow amd replacement. But if this provides the standard to which all including the US are being held to, WHY must Iran continue to be the rogue under such an establisment and not be expected to be retaliated against or held responsible for its actions that violate existing norms, rules, laws?

Attacking the US Mission in Iraq was stupid, regardless of whether it was done indirectly by proxies or not. It was to be retaliated against in proportion or more for the DETERRENCE value and to eliminate the significant chest piece ( Qassem ) who was also such a powerful regional security figure. Such a personage should not be anti American interest. And IF or as he were, he deserved what came to him in the scheme of things. Post his death, the response from Tehran is even revealing.

Supreme leader Ayatollah A. Khamenie is at his abusive best, ‘singling’ out Trump for invectives while threatening US interests and assets in the Strait of Hormuz. And, he would not hesitate to violate the already defective and paralyzed JCPOA that favoured Iran to the exclusion of its regional rivals, and global security interests. In another miscalculation, he announced a withdrawal from the agreement. What does that say about the Iranian leadership?

It may not be suicidal, but it isnt that very smart.

Khamenie could be fixed any day by US drones. And so could his replacement for Qassem, the brigadier general Ghaani. Any wise actor then would recognise this reality and approach this whole situation or challenge, rather differently. But to pacify the Iranian street, Khamenie went even more lunatic. While at it, he claimed “death to America” is for the US leadership, and NOT Americans. And insists that Qassem would be avenged. Is this actor, a fellow we should cry for?

Gaddafi was delusional as well. When he had lucid moments, he made the fatal error of trusting rats like Tony Blair, Sarkozy and Obama and paid dearly for it with his goddamed life after some hard sodomy without lubrication. Saddam was foolish too. He played to the Iraqi street to his ignominious hanging. Can Khamenie NOT learn from those and from Qassem?

If he would not, why cry for him and keep scrutiny of the unhinged US killing machine?

Thing is that, Israel rules via Trump in that region. Israel want this regime in Iran gone for a leadership favorable to interests in Jerusalem / Tel Aviv. This ayatollah and Qassem should have known this and act better, than to keep pushing the shia crescent agenda to Israeli doorsteps while violating US sovereignty and in such an ineffective way, that they risk leadership DECAPITATION and military humiliation!

Any way. The 42% or so Persians may be waiting to to help form a new Government in Tehran, post the Azerbaijani Khamenie. Khamenie’s legacy is aboit being obliterated because he miscalculated multiply, just as Qassem just did to his untimely death!