Determinism in Prediction: Zeihan on China, Rubini on 2008, many in 2001, 87 etc.
Regarding “Zeihan’s been predicting china’s decline for ten years” So have I and others. Zeihan is just the best at explaining it. I predicted in 04-06 that China’s economy would correct between 10 and 14. I was wrong. But their data is terrible, the degree to which they had done to the west’s technology and economy what America did the the european economy in the late 1800’s and the Germans after World War Two difficult is to observe from afar, and perhaps most importantly, when the State as primary investor can’t fall to fear and flight like major banks, institutional and retail investors (something the west must learn), and when they had until this year an endless labor pool to price arbitrage against the world – it was very hard to get the timing right....