Curt Doolittle

Source: Original Site Post

  • A Subjective To Objective Translation Worth Repeating

    —Humans are adapted to want traditional forms of governance. They want law. They want to be ruled by legitimate, worthy, and trusted authority. They want a leader who commands the force of the nation to represent them to the outside world.”— Adolphus Völkermord Yes … and we want them because we want low opportunity costs (a dense population), low transaction costs (trust), low-cost information(homogeneity language, and interests), low-cost negotiation (stable norms: manners, ethics, morals), high returns on our work effort (a market and competitive commons), insurance against defection and defectors(law), and insurance against our failure (insurer of last resort), and insurance against the loss of all of the above (military defense).

    What I have learned to say is that we want a low cost of ‘calculating’ probability of success in our endeavors, and high returns on our efforts expended: *The greatest return, in the shortest time, for the least effort, with the greatest degree of certainty, at the lowest risk* In other words, we are like every other creature, object, molecule, and particle in the known universe.

  • Critical Rationalism And Justificationism: Just The Beginning

    July 13 ·
    The critical rationalists are vocal about the ever present effects of ever present justificationism. yet they do not take this into behavior, manners, ethics, morals, politics, and economics to the same degree that they do to verbal argument, statistics, and physical sciences. The world is built subtractively: we seek to make things cheaper. We cannot make time and energy, we can only save them. We cannot make liberty we can only suppress parasitism.

  • Critical Rationalism And Justificationism: Just The Beginning

    July 13 ·
    The critical rationalists are vocal about the ever present effects of ever present justificationism. yet they do not take this into behavior, manners, ethics, morals, politics, and economics to the same degree that they do to verbal argument, statistics, and physical sciences. The world is built subtractively: we seek to make things cheaper. We cannot make time and energy, we can only save them. We cannot make liberty we can only suppress parasitism.

  • Anglo Civilization: Wishful Thinking

    (wishful thinking) Maybe the brits will get smart, make use of the royalty asset, and make a play to re-lead the anglosphere, of UK, CA, USA, AUS, NZ, GIB…. You know? Reform the UN? Take some leadership away from the USA? USA 320M, UK 65M, CA 40M, AUS 23M, NZ 4.5M

    That’s 450M people.  That’s the magic number for a world power. I know. I know….

  • Anglo Civilization: Wishful Thinking

    (wishful thinking) Maybe the brits will get smart, make use of the royalty asset, and make a play to re-lead the anglosphere, of UK, CA, USA, AUS, NZ, GIB…. You know? Reform the UN? Take some leadership away from the USA? USA 320M, UK 65M, CA 40M, AUS 23M, NZ 4.5M

    That’s 450M people.  That’s the magic number for a world power. I know. I know….

  • The Living American Generations

    THE LIVING AMERICAN GENERATIONS ****The Depression Era**** “The Fearful Generation” Born: 1912-1921 Coming of Age: 1930-1939 Age in 2004: 83 to 92 Current Population: 11-12 million (and declining rapidly) Depression era individuals tend to be conservative, compulsive savers, maintain low debt and use more secure financial products like CDs versus stocks. These individuals tend to feel a responsibility to leave a legacy to their children. Tend to be patriotic, oriented toward work before pleasure, respect for authority, have a sense of moral obligation. ****World War II**** The Greatest Generation Born: 1922 to 1927 Coming of Age: 1940-1945 Age in 2004: 77-82 Current Population: 11 million (in quickening decline) People in this cohort shared in a common goal of defeating the Axis powers. There was an accepted sense of “deferment” among this group, contrasted with the emphasis on “me” in more recent (i.e. Gen X) cohorts. ****Post-War Cohort**** The Privileged Generation Born: 1928-1945 Coming of Age: 1946-1963 Age in 2004: 59 to 76 Current Population: 41 million (declining) This generation had significant opportunities in jobs and education as the War ended and apost-war economic boom struck America. However, the growth in Cold War tensions, the potential for nuclear war and other never before seen threats led to levels of discomfort and uncertainty throughout the generation. Members of this group value security, comfort, and familiar, known activities and environments. ****The Baby Boomers**** “The Fuck Ups” Born: 1946-1954 Coming of Age: 1963-1972 Age in 2004: 50-58 Current Population: 33 million For a long time the Baby Boomers were defined as those born between 1945 and 1964. That would make the generation huge (71 million) and encompass people who were 20 years apart in age. It didn’t compute to have those born in 1964 compared with those born in 1946. Life experiences were completely different. Attitudes, behaviors and society were vastly different. In effect, all the elements that help to define a cohort were violated by the broad span of years originally included in the concept of the Baby Boomers. The first Boomer segment is bounded by the Kennedy and Martin Luther King assassinations, the Civil Rights movements and the Vietnam War. Boomers I were in or protested the War. Boomers 2 or the Jones Generation missed the whole thing. Boomers I had good economic opportunities and were largely optimistic about the potential for America and their own lives, the Vietnam War notwithstanding. *****Generation Jones***** The Tech Transition Generation Born: 1955-1965 Coming of Age: 1973-1983 Age in 2004: 39 to 49 Current Population: 49 million This first post-Watergate generation lost much of its trust in government and optimistic views the Boomers I maintained. Economic struggles including the oil embargo of 1979 reinforced a sense of “I’m out for me” and narcissism and a focus on self-help and skepticism over media and institutions is representative of attitudes of this cohort. While Boomers I had Vietnam, Joneses had AIDS as part of their rites of passage. The youngest members of the Jones generation in fact did not have the benefits of the Boomers class as many of the best jobs, opportunities, housing etc. were taken by the larger and earlier group. Both Gen X and Boomer II s suffer from this long shadow cast by Boomers. ****Generation X**** The Uncertain Generation Born: 1966-1976 Coming of Age: 1988-1994 Age in 2004: 28 to 38 Current Population: 41 million Sometimes referred to as the “lost” generation, this was the first generation of “latchkey” kids, exposed to lots of daycare and divorce. Known as the generation with the lowest voting participation rate of any generation, Gen Xers were quoted by Newsweek as “the generation that dropped out without ever turning on the news or tuning in to the social issues around them.” Gen X is often characterized by high levels of skepticism, “what’s in it for me” attitudes and a reputation for some of the worst music to ever gain popularity. Now, moving into adulthood William Morrow (Generations) cited the childhood divorce of many Gen Xers as “one of the most decisive experiences influencing how Gen Xers will shape their own families”. Gen Xers are arguably the best educated generation with 29% obtaining a bachelor’s degree or higher (6% higher than the previous cohort). And, with that education and a growing maturity they are starting to form families with a higher level of caution and pragmatism than their parents demonstrated. Concerns run high over avoiding broken homes, kids growing up without a parent around and financial planning. ****Generation Y, Millennials (“The Pet Generation“)**** Born: 1977-1994 Coming of Age: 1998-2006 Age in 2004: 10 to 22 Current Population: 71 million The largest cohort since the Baby Boomers, their high numbers reflect their births as that of their parent generation. The last of the Boomer Is and most of the Boomer II s. Gen Y kids are known as incredibly sophisticated, technology wise, immune to most traditional marketing and sales pitches…as they not only grew up with it all, they’ve seen it all and been exposed to it all since early childhood. Gen Y members are much more racially and ethnically diverse and they are much more segmented as an audience aided by the rapid expansion in Cable TV channels, satellite radio, the Internet, e-zines, etc. Gen Y are less brand loyal and the speed of the Internet has led the cohort to be similarly flexible and changing in its fashion, style consciousness and where and how it is communicated with. Gen Y kids often raised in dual income or single parent families have been more involved in family purchases…everything from groceries to new cars. One in nine Gen Yers has a credit card co-signed by a parent. ****Generation Z**** Born: 1995-2012 Coming of Age: 2013-2020 Age in 2004: 0-9 Current Population: 23 million and growing rapidly While we don’t know much about Gen Z yet…we know a lot about the environment they are growing up in. This highly diverse environment will make the grade schools of the next generation the most diverse ever. Higher levels of technology will make significant inroads in academics allowing for customized instruction, data mining of student histories to enable pinpoint diagnostics and remediation or accelerated achievement opportunities. Gen Z kids will grow up with a highly sophisticated media and computer environment and will be more Internet savvy and expert than their Gen Y forerunners. More to come on Gen Z…stay tuned.  

  • The Living American Generations

    THE LIVING AMERICAN GENERATIONS ****The Depression Era**** “The Fearful Generation” Born: 1912-1921 Coming of Age: 1930-1939 Age in 2004: 83 to 92 Current Population: 11-12 million (and declining rapidly) Depression era individuals tend to be conservative, compulsive savers, maintain low debt and use more secure financial products like CDs versus stocks. These individuals tend to feel a responsibility to leave a legacy to their children. Tend to be patriotic, oriented toward work before pleasure, respect for authority, have a sense of moral obligation. ****World War II**** The Greatest Generation Born: 1922 to 1927 Coming of Age: 1940-1945 Age in 2004: 77-82 Current Population: 11 million (in quickening decline) People in this cohort shared in a common goal of defeating the Axis powers. There was an accepted sense of “deferment” among this group, contrasted with the emphasis on “me” in more recent (i.e. Gen X) cohorts. ****Post-War Cohort**** The Privileged Generation Born: 1928-1945 Coming of Age: 1946-1963 Age in 2004: 59 to 76 Current Population: 41 million (declining) This generation had significant opportunities in jobs and education as the War ended and apost-war economic boom struck America. However, the growth in Cold War tensions, the potential for nuclear war and other never before seen threats led to levels of discomfort and uncertainty throughout the generation. Members of this group value security, comfort, and familiar, known activities and environments. ****The Baby Boomers**** “The Fuck Ups” Born: 1946-1954 Coming of Age: 1963-1972 Age in 2004: 50-58 Current Population: 33 million For a long time the Baby Boomers were defined as those born between 1945 and 1964. That would make the generation huge (71 million) and encompass people who were 20 years apart in age. It didn’t compute to have those born in 1964 compared with those born in 1946. Life experiences were completely different. Attitudes, behaviors and society were vastly different. In effect, all the elements that help to define a cohort were violated by the broad span of years originally included in the concept of the Baby Boomers. The first Boomer segment is bounded by the Kennedy and Martin Luther King assassinations, the Civil Rights movements and the Vietnam War. Boomers I were in or protested the War. Boomers 2 or the Jones Generation missed the whole thing. Boomers I had good economic opportunities and were largely optimistic about the potential for America and their own lives, the Vietnam War notwithstanding. *****Generation Jones***** The Tech Transition Generation Born: 1955-1965 Coming of Age: 1973-1983 Age in 2004: 39 to 49 Current Population: 49 million This first post-Watergate generation lost much of its trust in government and optimistic views the Boomers I maintained. Economic struggles including the oil embargo of 1979 reinforced a sense of “I’m out for me” and narcissism and a focus on self-help and skepticism over media and institutions is representative of attitudes of this cohort. While Boomers I had Vietnam, Joneses had AIDS as part of their rites of passage. The youngest members of the Jones generation in fact did not have the benefits of the Boomers class as many of the best jobs, opportunities, housing etc. were taken by the larger and earlier group. Both Gen X and Boomer II s suffer from this long shadow cast by Boomers. ****Generation X**** The Uncertain Generation Born: 1966-1976 Coming of Age: 1988-1994 Age in 2004: 28 to 38 Current Population: 41 million Sometimes referred to as the “lost” generation, this was the first generation of “latchkey” kids, exposed to lots of daycare and divorce. Known as the generation with the lowest voting participation rate of any generation, Gen Xers were quoted by Newsweek as “the generation that dropped out without ever turning on the news or tuning in to the social issues around them.” Gen X is often characterized by high levels of skepticism, “what’s in it for me” attitudes and a reputation for some of the worst music to ever gain popularity. Now, moving into adulthood William Morrow (Generations) cited the childhood divorce of many Gen Xers as “one of the most decisive experiences influencing how Gen Xers will shape their own families”. Gen Xers are arguably the best educated generation with 29% obtaining a bachelor’s degree or higher (6% higher than the previous cohort). And, with that education and a growing maturity they are starting to form families with a higher level of caution and pragmatism than their parents demonstrated. Concerns run high over avoiding broken homes, kids growing up without a parent around and financial planning. ****Generation Y, Millennials (“The Pet Generation“)**** Born: 1977-1994 Coming of Age: 1998-2006 Age in 2004: 10 to 22 Current Population: 71 million The largest cohort since the Baby Boomers, their high numbers reflect their births as that of their parent generation. The last of the Boomer Is and most of the Boomer II s. Gen Y kids are known as incredibly sophisticated, technology wise, immune to most traditional marketing and sales pitches…as they not only grew up with it all, they’ve seen it all and been exposed to it all since early childhood. Gen Y members are much more racially and ethnically diverse and they are much more segmented as an audience aided by the rapid expansion in Cable TV channels, satellite radio, the Internet, e-zines, etc. Gen Y are less brand loyal and the speed of the Internet has led the cohort to be similarly flexible and changing in its fashion, style consciousness and where and how it is communicated with. Gen Y kids often raised in dual income or single parent families have been more involved in family purchases…everything from groceries to new cars. One in nine Gen Yers has a credit card co-signed by a parent. ****Generation Z**** Born: 1995-2012 Coming of Age: 2013-2020 Age in 2004: 0-9 Current Population: 23 million and growing rapidly While we don’t know much about Gen Z yet…we know a lot about the environment they are growing up in. This highly diverse environment will make the grade schools of the next generation the most diverse ever. Higher levels of technology will make significant inroads in academics allowing for customized instruction, data mining of student histories to enable pinpoint diagnostics and remediation or accelerated achievement opportunities. Gen Z kids will grow up with a highly sophisticated media and computer environment and will be more Internet savvy and expert than their Gen Y forerunners. More to come on Gen Z…stay tuned.  

  • Types of Promise(Warranty)

    Unless one starts with a definition of truth these are fairly meaningless words. More desperate attempts to apply axiomatic or theoretic rules to loaded, framed, colloquial speech without the awareness that colloquial speech evolved to tolerate laziness, obscure ignorance, convey moral promise, and as such is neither axiomatic or theoretic but merely “meaningful”: conveying associations not necessary relations that are open to deduction. Types of Commitment ( promise, warranty ):

    • Understanding: I can also find a relationship between that description and my experience. ( warranty of sympathy )
    • Belief: I intuit so given my experience but I cannot warranty I have tested it. But I warranty that I speak honestly, even if I err.(moral warranty)
    • Rational: I can find no contradiction for within my experience, and warranty that I have tried. ( warranty of diligence without cost of testing )
    • Empirical: I find it to be correspondent with observations (measurements) that warrant against errors in observation ( warranty of diligence and bearing the cost of testing )
    • Scientific: despite my efforts, I find it is correspondent and I cannot find a reason that it is false so it remains a truth candidate. ( warranty of diligence and investing in expanding testing )
    • Testimonial: I have conducted tests of identity, internal consistency, empirical consistency, existential possibility, objective morality, full accounting, parsimony and limits and as such it is very likely for the question at hand that this statement will survive all scrutiny and only increase in parsimony. ( warranty of total testing )
    The only existentially possible truth is promissory. The only existential truth we can warranty is testimonial. One does not justify a truth one demonstrates a warranty of the degree of his diligence. Thus endeth the lesson. 😉. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine.

  • Types of Promise(Warranty)

    Unless one starts with a definition of truth these are fairly meaningless words. More desperate attempts to apply axiomatic or theoretic rules to loaded, framed, colloquial speech without the awareness that colloquial speech evolved to tolerate laziness, obscure ignorance, convey moral promise, and as such is neither axiomatic or theoretic but merely “meaningful”: conveying associations not necessary relations that are open to deduction. Types of Commitment ( promise, warranty ):

    • Understanding: I can also find a relationship between that description and my experience. ( warranty of sympathy )
    • Belief: I intuit so given my experience but I cannot warranty I have tested it. But I warranty that I speak honestly, even if I err.(moral warranty)
    • Rational: I can find no contradiction for within my experience, and warranty that I have tried. ( warranty of diligence without cost of testing )
    • Empirical: I find it to be correspondent with observations (measurements) that warrant against errors in observation ( warranty of diligence and bearing the cost of testing )
    • Scientific: despite my efforts, I find it is correspondent and I cannot find a reason that it is false so it remains a truth candidate. ( warranty of diligence and investing in expanding testing )
    • Testimonial: I have conducted tests of identity, internal consistency, empirical consistency, existential possibility, objective morality, full accounting, parsimony and limits and as such it is very likely for the question at hand that this statement will survive all scrutiny and only increase in parsimony. ( warranty of total testing )
    The only existentially possible truth is promissory. The only existential truth we can warranty is testimonial. One does not justify a truth one demonstrates a warranty of the degree of his diligence. Thus endeth the lesson. 😉. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine.

  • Why Do Central Banks Use Intermediaries?

    IMPORTANT: WHY DO CENTRAL BANKS USE INTERMEDIARIES? —“Question: why do central banks continue to do stimulus through intermediaries like banks when they can wire the money directly to consumers? Eg. by issuing them with prepaid cards to spend?”— Ayelam I am not an econometrician but I suspect I’ll hold my own against any living econometric economist on this subject: The answer consists of the following components: (1) The distribution of physical money through the banks was a necessity. (2 )There was no other distribution channel available until perhaps 20 years ago at the earliest. (I remember how hard it was to get people to use credit cards). (3) Digital money is actually not a very old technology and we have just recently begun to understand it.Governments move very slowly and this will disrupt the entire economy in (good) ways that will totally fuck the institutional investors that fund DC campaigns with ill-gotten gains unearned, since they merely distribute a costless good to the highest bidder for a commission. They are auctioneers. That is all. (4) The banker/crediting agency investigates the probability and insures the probability that the debt will be repaid. This INSURER function is actually what bankers do: insure the shareholders (citizens) that their fiat money (shares) are used judiciously. This argument has increasingly become specious because we have such accurate actuarial data now that we can predict the performance of a bucket of consumers with nearly perfect accuracy. 4A) It benefits the various rent seekers and politicians if all fiscal(spending) stimulus to the economy is provided by government to government suppliers just as all monetary stimulus is distributed through the financial sectors. What would happen to the construction of high cost government projects when consumers were able to say “but I could have used that money here at home?”. (5) There is a (mistaken) belief that the time value of productivity for the purpose of consumption (consumer income) needs interest for calculation purposes just as business and industry need interest for economic calculation purposes. This is a long conversation but I don’t see how consumption is any kind of entrepreneurial risk. it’s the cause of entrepreneurial risk. (6) The very idea was kind of poisoned by the MMT crowd. Particularly – we do not know the impact it would have on interest rates. And at present interest rates are the metric that the world uses to control the ‘price’ of money(which is not driven by cost of production), by regulating its ‘manufacture’ by states. Without interest rates we need another measure. This measure has been in dispute for many years, with some favoring some sort of purchasing power metric, and others favoring some productivity metric, and others some ‘growth’ metric. But if money loses its intertemporal predictability then economic calculation of contracts over any period of time increases and with that, the cost of all production, and therefore all prices, increases rapidly. (remember that money = influence that saves time and is therefore a store of time-in-production. Fiat money issued as credit money is a risk that the time will be more than saved over the interim period. (7) The moral hazard of distributing directly to consumers is frightening because unlike market activity, where people blame employers and the economy when activity shrinks and so does their income, we are fearful that people will change from living paycheck to variable paycheck, to living from monetary distribution to monetary distribution but retaliate politically against the government in the case of shrinking. Thereby all but making total communism a deterministic outcome – which is why some of the left advocate for it. (8) With the advent of leftist influence on the judiciary, it is no longer a social science bound by natural laws. So we have no means of putting such a policy into the constitution such that it’s immutable. Thereby eliminating the hazards articulated above. (9) I was nobody in 2008-2009 when I was talking about it, but as far as I know Galbraith was the only mainstream guy who articulated this problem correctly, and he correctly advocated the direct payment of mortgage debt. It would have price stabilized the world economy. But it would have fucked (undeserving) institutional debt-holders the same way greek debt holders were fucked. (His death was untimely) And conservatives (wrongly) thought it created a moral hazard (which would have been solved by giving people credit lines who had acted properly, and credit lines to those people over the next x years who were able to buy a house. ) I’ve also recommended limiting mortgages to 15 years in order to limit this problem further. Why? all increases in salary are eventually absorbed by housing prices and redistributed to long term property holders (indirect retirement savings accounts ). (10) So net net, we can buy or nationalize the ( worst )credit card company (mastercard), and distribute liquidity directly to consumers, as long as we put constitutional safeguards in place, and as long as the amount is dependent upon the overall economy. And let industry and business determine the interest rate, which should drop dramaticlaly if we reidstribute to consumers. Because the truth is that fiat currency is such an advantage that a people cannot compete without it. Competing currencies and commodities exist but they are not anywhere near as price stabilized as fiat money CAN be. So we are always going to have it. Probably digital will replace it and it will have to because the abuse of it has gotten out of hand. What real purpose does government debt serve over simply printing money and paying with it? You pay the price of interest in order to delay the equilibrial neutrality of money working through the economy. In other words, the faster new money moves the faster prices in the existing cycle of production adjust. Fast adjustment is bad if it interferes with production ( planning ) cycles. So instead we pay interest and sell government debt so that we inflate away the interest at about the same rate that prices adjust in the economy. If you understand it, then it seems ridiculous. A clever network of lies not really different from religion.