—“Curt, when do you think is the next economic / financial crisis slanted? Somebody I know well and trust, who got out of dodge last time around, is expecting it to be less than 18 months out, as indicated by the inverted bond yield curve. Is this accurate?”—- Moritz Bierling I have been saying that it looks to me like 2017-2020 since 2006. And that we would have some vast reorganizational catastrophe between 2020 and 2025. I was paying a lot of attention prior to the crisis, and so I was spot on (within 30 days) of estimating it correctly. Even the 2014 return. (I was conversely waaaaaaaaay off on China, which I thought would run out of options by 2010, but is deftly managing their equilibration and converting to totalitarianism before their great correction). I am not paying close enough attention to patterns today, so your friend is probably correct. I don’t need greater precision for my work. The reason being that I’m trying to provide “what to do about it” in advance – although still behind schedule. My understanding, and my strategy, is that we will see convergence in the next 24 months and that will begin the next ‘great wars’ era, because (a) the civil unrest will occupy the west, and (b) world powers in waiting will seize the opportunity, (c) both because they can afford to, and (d) because our ‘model’ (democracy) will have been proven wrong, so they will ‘advance’ under a sense of ‘moral authority to right a tragic wrong’. I think it is extremely unlikely that I err. Why? Humans always pursue available incentives. (PS: 1) I can tell by the loans being generated that we are at the limit of possible credit expansion and I suspect the bond yield is reflecting it. 2) I can tell by the absolutely certain future direction of oil prices that this will coincide with and partly drive the rest of the outcomes I anticipate.) Apr 19, 2018 12:19pm
Source: Original Site Post
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The Alt Right Is a Western Ideology that Believes in Science, History, Reality, and The Right of A Genetic Nation to Exist and Govern Itself in Its Own Interests.
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/08/what-alt-right-is.html?m=1 TL;DR: The Alt Right is a Western ideology that believes in science, history, reality, and the right of a genetic nation to exist and govern itself in its own interests. CURT’S TAKE: ——— SELF DETERMINATION (SOVEREIGNTY): Kin, Excellence, Eugenics, Nationalism (Europe, east asia), – vs – OTHER DETERMINATION (COLLECTIVISM): Corporate, Quantity, Dysgenic, Universalism (india, brazil, levant) ——— In the interest of developing a core Alternative Right philosophy upon which others can build. The Alt Right is of the political right in both the American and the European sense of the term. Socialists are not Alt Right. Progressives are not Alt Right. Liberals are not Alt Right. Communists, Marxists, Marxians, cultural Marxists, and neocons are not Alt Right. National Socialists are not Alt Right. The Alt Right is an ALTERNATIVE to the mainstream conservative movement in the USA that is nominally encapsulated by Russel Kirk’s 10 Conservative Principles, but in reality has devolved towards progressivism. It is also an alternative to libertarianism. The Alt Right is not a defensive attitude and rejects the concept of noble and principled defeat. It is a forward-thinking philosophy of offense, in every sense of that term. The Alt Right believes in victory through persistence and remaining in harmony with science, reality, cultural tradition, and the lessons of history. The Alt Right believes Western civilization is the pinnacle of human achievement and supports its three foundational pillars: Christianity, the European nations, and the Graeco-Roman legacy. The Alt Right is openly and avowedly nationalist. It supports all nationalisms and the right of all nations to exist, homogeneous and unadulterated by foreign invasion and immigration. The Alt Right is anti-globalist. It opposes all groups who work for globalist ideals or globalist objectives. The Alt Right is anti-equalitarian. It rejects the idea of equality for the same reason it rejects the ideas of unicorns and leprechauns, noting that human equality does not exist in any observable scientific, legal, material, intellectual, sexual, or spiritual form. The Alt Right is scientodific. It presumptively accepts the current conclusions of the scientific method (scientody), while understanding a) these conclusions are liable to future revision, b) that scientistry is susceptible to corruption, and c) that the so-called scientific consensus is not based on scientody, but democracy, and is therefore intrinsically unscientific. The Alt Right believes identity > culture > politics. The Alt Right is opposed to the rule or domination of any native ethnic group by another, particularly in the sovereign homelands of the dominated peoples. The Alt Right is opposed to any non-native ethnic group obtaining excessive influence in any society through nepotism, tribalism, or any other means. The Alt Right understands that diversity + proximity = war. The Alt Right doesn’t care what you think of it. The Alt Right rejects international free trade and the free movement of peoples that free trade requires. The benefits of intranational free trade is not evidence for the benefits of international free trade. The Alt Right believes we must secure the existence of white people and a future for white children. The Alt Right does not believe in the general supremacy of any race, nation, people, or sub-species. Every race, nation, people, and human sub-species has its own unique strengths and weaknesses, and possesses the sovereign right to dwell unmolested in the native culture it prefers. The Alt Right is a philosophy that values peace among the various nations of the world and opposes wars to impose the values of one nation upon another as well as efforts to exterminate individual nations through war, genocide, immigration, or genetic assimilation. Apr 17, 2018 12:39pm
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The Alt Right Is a Western Ideology that Believes in Science, History, Reality, and The Right of A Genetic Nation to Exist and Govern Itself in Its Own Interests.
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/08/what-alt-right-is.html?m=1 TL;DR: The Alt Right is a Western ideology that believes in science, history, reality, and the right of a genetic nation to exist and govern itself in its own interests. CURT’S TAKE: ——— SELF DETERMINATION (SOVEREIGNTY): Kin, Excellence, Eugenics, Nationalism (Europe, east asia), – vs – OTHER DETERMINATION (COLLECTIVISM): Corporate, Quantity, Dysgenic, Universalism (india, brazil, levant) ——— In the interest of developing a core Alternative Right philosophy upon which others can build. The Alt Right is of the political right in both the American and the European sense of the term. Socialists are not Alt Right. Progressives are not Alt Right. Liberals are not Alt Right. Communists, Marxists, Marxians, cultural Marxists, and neocons are not Alt Right. National Socialists are not Alt Right. The Alt Right is an ALTERNATIVE to the mainstream conservative movement in the USA that is nominally encapsulated by Russel Kirk’s 10 Conservative Principles, but in reality has devolved towards progressivism. It is also an alternative to libertarianism. The Alt Right is not a defensive attitude and rejects the concept of noble and principled defeat. It is a forward-thinking philosophy of offense, in every sense of that term. The Alt Right believes in victory through persistence and remaining in harmony with science, reality, cultural tradition, and the lessons of history. The Alt Right believes Western civilization is the pinnacle of human achievement and supports its three foundational pillars: Christianity, the European nations, and the Graeco-Roman legacy. The Alt Right is openly and avowedly nationalist. It supports all nationalisms and the right of all nations to exist, homogeneous and unadulterated by foreign invasion and immigration. The Alt Right is anti-globalist. It opposes all groups who work for globalist ideals or globalist objectives. The Alt Right is anti-equalitarian. It rejects the idea of equality for the same reason it rejects the ideas of unicorns and leprechauns, noting that human equality does not exist in any observable scientific, legal, material, intellectual, sexual, or spiritual form. The Alt Right is scientodific. It presumptively accepts the current conclusions of the scientific method (scientody), while understanding a) these conclusions are liable to future revision, b) that scientistry is susceptible to corruption, and c) that the so-called scientific consensus is not based on scientody, but democracy, and is therefore intrinsically unscientific. The Alt Right believes identity > culture > politics. The Alt Right is opposed to the rule or domination of any native ethnic group by another, particularly in the sovereign homelands of the dominated peoples. The Alt Right is opposed to any non-native ethnic group obtaining excessive influence in any society through nepotism, tribalism, or any other means. The Alt Right understands that diversity + proximity = war. The Alt Right doesn’t care what you think of it. The Alt Right rejects international free trade and the free movement of peoples that free trade requires. The benefits of intranational free trade is not evidence for the benefits of international free trade. The Alt Right believes we must secure the existence of white people and a future for white children. The Alt Right does not believe in the general supremacy of any race, nation, people, or sub-species. Every race, nation, people, and human sub-species has its own unique strengths and weaknesses, and possesses the sovereign right to dwell unmolested in the native culture it prefers. The Alt Right is a philosophy that values peace among the various nations of the world and opposes wars to impose the values of one nation upon another as well as efforts to exterminate individual nations through war, genocide, immigration, or genetic assimilation. Apr 17, 2018 12:39pm
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The Flynn Effect Explained
0) We don’t have IQ tests from 1830 (the beginning of the revolution). Only response tests from later in the 1800’s. 1) the response tests have dropped. (I am still fussing about this one), and response time is pretty much a proxy for iq (which in an age of neural networks we should understand is obvious). 2) The flynn effect has stopped and now reversed. 3) All the gains were at the bottom of the distribution, and the top has remained the same or decreased. (age confirms it) 4) The differences are not in g-loaded parts of the tests, and g-loaded parts are unchanged. 5) Relative positioning remains constant: —“While the secular gains are on g-loaded tests (such as the Wechsler), they are negatively correlated with the most g-loaded components of those tests. Also, the tests lose their g loadedness over time with training, retesting, and familiarity. In an analysis of mathematics and reading scores from tests such as the NAEP and Coleman Report over the last 54 years, we show that there has been no narrowing of the gap in either IQ scores or in educational achievement. From 1954 to 2008, Black 17-year-olds have consistently scored at about the level of White 14-year-olds, yielding IQ equivale”—- 6) We do in fact get a bit better with practice. Not a lot better but better enough to reduce volatility, which would not improve test coverage, but reduce error in tests performed. In other words we aren’t smarter we reduce errors. 7) General knowledge ‘saturation’ produces patterns involuntarily that has to be learned intentionally (or by reading) as in the past. HOWERVER As I understand it, people are ‘smarter in general’ for the simple reason that by ‘thinking scientifically’ we in fact are training ourselves to apply general rules. In other words, people at the turn of the century were more likely to think in instance-rules and commands, than general rules, and we have in fact gotten better at the use of general rules. Hence why I am an advocate for the German and English Languages, and in particular operational language, because I am certain that the same gains will be produced as were produced by scientific thought (general rules). Ergo, this is much scarier: that means some ideas not only make us dumber, they imprison us in dumbness. MORE LATER.
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The Flynn Effect Explained
0) We don’t have IQ tests from 1830 (the beginning of the revolution). Only response tests from later in the 1800’s. 1) the response tests have dropped. (I am still fussing about this one), and response time is pretty much a proxy for iq (which in an age of neural networks we should understand is obvious). 2) The flynn effect has stopped and now reversed. 3) All the gains were at the bottom of the distribution, and the top has remained the same or decreased. (age confirms it) 4) The differences are not in g-loaded parts of the tests, and g-loaded parts are unchanged. 5) Relative positioning remains constant: —“While the secular gains are on g-loaded tests (such as the Wechsler), they are negatively correlated with the most g-loaded components of those tests. Also, the tests lose their g loadedness over time with training, retesting, and familiarity. In an analysis of mathematics and reading scores from tests such as the NAEP and Coleman Report over the last 54 years, we show that there has been no narrowing of the gap in either IQ scores or in educational achievement. From 1954 to 2008, Black 17-year-olds have consistently scored at about the level of White 14-year-olds, yielding IQ equivale”—- 6) We do in fact get a bit better with practice. Not a lot better but better enough to reduce volatility, which would not improve test coverage, but reduce error in tests performed. In other words we aren’t smarter we reduce errors. 7) General knowledge ‘saturation’ produces patterns involuntarily that has to be learned intentionally (or by reading) as in the past. HOWERVER As I understand it, people are ‘smarter in general’ for the simple reason that by ‘thinking scientifically’ we in fact are training ourselves to apply general rules. In other words, people at the turn of the century were more likely to think in instance-rules and commands, than general rules, and we have in fact gotten better at the use of general rules. Hence why I am an advocate for the German and English Languages, and in particular operational language, because I am certain that the same gains will be produced as were produced by scientific thought (general rules). Ergo, this is much scarier: that means some ideas not only make us dumber, they imprison us in dumbness. MORE LATER.
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The Law of Policy
Whenever political decidability is no longer empirical it must of necessity rely on ideology, because empiricism tests reciprocity(equilibrium), and ideology tests extremes(disequilibrium). Ergo, either one lives by rule of law, markets, empiricism, and equilibrium, or one lives by rule by discretion, bureaucracy, ideology, and disequilibrium. At present our compromise solution is discretion from the use of proceeds of cooperation (taxation), and rule of law (non discretion) for all activity. But without nationalism we cannot test nor preserve reciprocity between groups with heterogeneous demands due to heterogeneous distributions. Apr 18, 2018 7:50am
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The Law of Policy
Whenever political decidability is no longer empirical it must of necessity rely on ideology, because empiricism tests reciprocity(equilibrium), and ideology tests extremes(disequilibrium). Ergo, either one lives by rule of law, markets, empiricism, and equilibrium, or one lives by rule by discretion, bureaucracy, ideology, and disequilibrium. At present our compromise solution is discretion from the use of proceeds of cooperation (taxation), and rule of law (non discretion) for all activity. But without nationalism we cannot test nor preserve reciprocity between groups with heterogeneous demands due to heterogeneous distributions. Apr 18, 2018 7:50am
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Economics of Neural Networks
Any “general rule of arbitrary precision” must include a limit (time delineation) in order to categorize and test an outcome(consequence), since we may categorize consequences at any point in the time line in which actionable or deducible constant relations are identifiable. In other words, searches for prediction of futures are change (state) dependent. This may be heavy but it means that your prediction of future events from any state may vary by the utility you prefer. We must operate by general rules (categories) because that is all we can act upon (a concentration of constant relations during which we can effect a change in state.) We all bias our utility (judgements) on similar timelines if not only due to ability, but also on commensurability. Ergo, we develop out of necessity time preferences and the more expertise we develop in any time frame the more related (dependent) associations we develop in concert. This isn’t just choice it’s the economics of neural networks, and that economics is no different from the ‘economics’ of physics, biology, and sentience. (for Andy Curzon) Apr 18, 2018 9:59am
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Economics of Neural Networks
Any “general rule of arbitrary precision” must include a limit (time delineation) in order to categorize and test an outcome(consequence), since we may categorize consequences at any point in the time line in which actionable or deducible constant relations are identifiable. In other words, searches for prediction of futures are change (state) dependent. This may be heavy but it means that your prediction of future events from any state may vary by the utility you prefer. We must operate by general rules (categories) because that is all we can act upon (a concentration of constant relations during which we can effect a change in state.) We all bias our utility (judgements) on similar timelines if not only due to ability, but also on commensurability. Ergo, we develop out of necessity time preferences and the more expertise we develop in any time frame the more related (dependent) associations we develop in concert. This isn’t just choice it’s the economics of neural networks, and that economics is no different from the ‘economics’ of physics, biology, and sentience. (for Andy Curzon) Apr 18, 2018 9:59am
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Creating New Understanding Is Very Hard, Disciplined, Time Consuming Work.
It takes an extraordinary long time to simplify a very complex set of ideas into a language consisting of a sufficiently small set of general rules, that they can be taught within the ability, patience, and incentives available to the audience. (this shit I do is f’king hard, which is why it takes so long. I have become much much better at communicating these ideas over time, and that’s because I work, much, much, harder with more discipline with lower tolerance for error, than anyone else I have know, and the only other person I really can commiserate with is Kant – and he was wrong – even if I identify with Hayek [information] in nearly everything. Hume and Smith were innovative and insightful but they lacked legal rigour. As far as I know it takes nine to ten years of research on an innovation to develop marginally indifferent ability in any discipline. I knew that going in. And I knew I was slower that most. But sometimes I wake up from my work and look back and realize that no sane person would do this kind of thing without a cognitive bias to work endlessly [hyper orderliness], and in pursuit of a solution to a problem [threat] that’s pervasive [cultural or civilizational]. )