Curt Doolittle

Source: Original Site Post

  • Train the Elephant – All the Way

    Mar 20, 2020, 11:33 AM The more agency the have the less intuition to rely on to choose, the more you rely on intuition to falsify. I think that’s the net of it. “What does my intuition say? Ok. how can that be false? What’s the evidence that falsifies my intuition? And repeat that endlessly.” I mean, I know that’s how I think. Free association, falsification, loop until I have a first principle. Normal human reaction is just to seek a response from intuition. You have to train the elephant.

    —“It’s like an OODA loop for combat with the self.”—Kris Rue

  • I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp.

    Mar 20, 2020, 11:49 AM Goldman Sachs has a devastating revision for its GDP growth predictions theweek.com Clockwork. If you understand cycles… Anyway. The chief contribution of the postwar german austrians was the business cycle. ’08 ended the debate. Austrians are fully integrated into mainstream economic theory. No, I didn’t predict that the clock would strike midnight because of a virus. I predicted it would be a normal cycle collapse. I wish I had my diagrams from 2004. They were in red pen on copy paper. I hung them on the wall behind my desk. Learn generational cycles. Learn Demographics. Learn class and cultural differences. Learn technological cycles. Learn business cycles. Learn Hayekian Triangles. Learn enough different industries so that you understand their means of production. There is as much denial of human differences in politics as there is in education – but human differences eventually express in economics politics culture and civilizational ascent or decline. I built and ran consulting companies. Consulting companies are intelligence organizations. When you know a company’s technology you know how to OPERATIONALIZE that business. you learn a hundred businesses a year or more. I have been operationalizing businesses since I walked out of college. And I wrote simulation games and AI in my spare time, and studied economics. The patterns are always the same. You can play the market and profit from asymmetric information amongst noise or you can ignore the market and watch the economy and the polity and the culture – BECAUSE YOU ARE MEASURING CAPITAL not income. And that is what I do differently from other economists. I only look at changes in the balance sheet, and income is just noise. If we get anywhere near the -20% we will have our revolution. LIKE CLOCKWORK.

  • I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp.

    Mar 20, 2020, 11:49 AM Goldman Sachs has a devastating revision for its GDP growth predictions theweek.com Clockwork. If you understand cycles… Anyway. The chief contribution of the postwar german austrians was the business cycle. ’08 ended the debate. Austrians are fully integrated into mainstream economic theory. No, I didn’t predict that the clock would strike midnight because of a virus. I predicted it would be a normal cycle collapse. I wish I had my diagrams from 2004. They were in red pen on copy paper. I hung them on the wall behind my desk. Learn generational cycles. Learn Demographics. Learn class and cultural differences. Learn technological cycles. Learn business cycles. Learn Hayekian Triangles. Learn enough different industries so that you understand their means of production. There is as much denial of human differences in politics as there is in education – but human differences eventually express in economics politics culture and civilizational ascent or decline. I built and ran consulting companies. Consulting companies are intelligence organizations. When you know a company’s technology you know how to OPERATIONALIZE that business. you learn a hundred businesses a year or more. I have been operationalizing businesses since I walked out of college. And I wrote simulation games and AI in my spare time, and studied economics. The patterns are always the same. You can play the market and profit from asymmetric information amongst noise or you can ignore the market and watch the economy and the polity and the culture – BECAUSE YOU ARE MEASURING CAPITAL not income. And that is what I do differently from other economists. I only look at changes in the balance sheet, and income is just noise. If we get anywhere near the -20% we will have our revolution. LIKE CLOCKWORK.

  • Teach Applied P Not P-Method

    Mar 20, 2020, 12:19 PM by Luke Weinhagen

    —“Then why are people so overwhelmed by P so often?”—

    Teaching people how to replicate P methodology and to produce P output is complex. (discovered-P/constructed-P) Teaching people how to consume P output is simple. (applied-P) We say to people “we have the answer” then they ask “Ok, what is it?” and we start teaching them how to construct P. But this is not the answer is it? This is how to find the answer – and we advertised that we already had the answer. So those seeking the answer get overwhelmed by lessons in methodology they never sought. How can they not be confused and overwhelmed? In offering the methodology in response to “What is the answer?” we create the perception that the only way to access the answer is to construct it yourself. It is the teachers curse. We value the “how” and the “why” and project that value onto anyone asking the “what”. We are conflating production and output. I think John’s success, and the success we are seeing ITV have, are at least in part because they de-conflate production and output and offer their audiences a consumable framing of output. (this is not a dumbing down, it is giving the market what it is specifically asking for – the answer). (CD: This was helpful. thanks)

  • Teach Applied P Not P-Method

    Mar 20, 2020, 12:19 PM by Luke Weinhagen

    —“Then why are people so overwhelmed by P so often?”—

    Teaching people how to replicate P methodology and to produce P output is complex. (discovered-P/constructed-P) Teaching people how to consume P output is simple. (applied-P) We say to people “we have the answer” then they ask “Ok, what is it?” and we start teaching them how to construct P. But this is not the answer is it? This is how to find the answer – and we advertised that we already had the answer. So those seeking the answer get overwhelmed by lessons in methodology they never sought. How can they not be confused and overwhelmed? In offering the methodology in response to “What is the answer?” we create the perception that the only way to access the answer is to construct it yourself. It is the teachers curse. We value the “how” and the “why” and project that value onto anyone asking the “what”. We are conflating production and output. I think John’s success, and the success we are seeing ITV have, are at least in part because they de-conflate production and output and offer their audiences a consumable framing of output. (this is not a dumbing down, it is giving the market what it is specifically asking for – the answer). (CD: This was helpful. thanks)

  • This is the story of history – not economics.

    Mar 20, 2020, 12:52 PM

    The good generated by a middle class, the demand for expansion of the middle class, always and everywhere expands until the capital is consumed by the middle class by expanding the lower classes, leading to dysgenia, decline, and collapse.

    This is the story of history – not economics.

  • This is the story of history – not economics.

    Mar 20, 2020, 12:52 PM

    The good generated by a middle class, the demand for expansion of the middle class, always and everywhere expands until the capital is consumed by the middle class by expanding the lower classes, leading to dysgenia, decline, and collapse.

    This is the story of history – not economics.

  • On the Pill

    Mar 20, 2020, 1:02 PM www.sciencedaily.com sciencedaily.com

    — “We validated methods for assessing the volume of the hypothalamus and confirm, for the first time, that current oral contraceptive pill usage is associated with smaller hypothalamic volume.” “The sample size of the study was quite small: 50 women, 21 of whom were on the pill. The study’s findings, which were presented at the Radiological Society of North America, found a six percent decrease in the size of the hypothalamus among women who took birth control pills.” “Women should not be too concerned about these associations, as there currently is not enough information to change hormonal contraceptive use based on this and similar studies,” Alexandra Herrera, a University of Southern California gerontologist who is not involved in the study, said.”— Herrara (Female)

    STUDY AUTHOR

    –“”We found a dramatic difference in the size of the brain structures between women who were taking oral contraceptives and those who were not,” Dr. Lipton said. “This initial study shows a strong association and should motivate further investigation into the effects of oral contraceptives on brain structure and their potential impact on brain function.””– Dr Lipton (Male)

    COMMENTS Note that (a) while the sample size is under 100, it’s not tiny. (b) 6% is a non trivial decline in hippocampal size, (c) the hippocampus is where your concept of the world is integrated and output for emotional reaction, (d) this is not the first study to illustrate the shrinkage. AND (a) both men and women emotionally coddle women. (b) the author of the comment is a woman. (c) she’s using the vocabulary of coddling. if you asked me how a drug would show up in a problem of emotional regulation i would say ‘somewhere within the hippocampal region”. STUDY: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191204090819.htm

  • On the Pill

    Mar 20, 2020, 1:02 PM www.sciencedaily.com sciencedaily.com

    — “We validated methods for assessing the volume of the hypothalamus and confirm, for the first time, that current oral contraceptive pill usage is associated with smaller hypothalamic volume.” “The sample size of the study was quite small: 50 women, 21 of whom were on the pill. The study’s findings, which were presented at the Radiological Society of North America, found a six percent decrease in the size of the hypothalamus among women who took birth control pills.” “Women should not be too concerned about these associations, as there currently is not enough information to change hormonal contraceptive use based on this and similar studies,” Alexandra Herrera, a University of Southern California gerontologist who is not involved in the study, said.”— Herrara (Female)

    STUDY AUTHOR

    –“”We found a dramatic difference in the size of the brain structures between women who were taking oral contraceptives and those who were not,” Dr. Lipton said. “This initial study shows a strong association and should motivate further investigation into the effects of oral contraceptives on brain structure and their potential impact on brain function.””– Dr Lipton (Male)

    COMMENTS Note that (a) while the sample size is under 100, it’s not tiny. (b) 6% is a non trivial decline in hippocampal size, (c) the hippocampus is where your concept of the world is integrated and output for emotional reaction, (d) this is not the first study to illustrate the shrinkage. AND (a) both men and women emotionally coddle women. (b) the author of the comment is a woman. (c) she’s using the vocabulary of coddling. if you asked me how a drug would show up in a problem of emotional regulation i would say ‘somewhere within the hippocampal region”. STUDY: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191204090819.htm

  • What Can the Average Person Grasp?

    Mar 20, 2020, 1:04 PM By John Mark

    —“So moral-reasoning in P is not hard. But what about the Grammars, Testimonial Truth, Operational Language, Strictly Constructed Laws, and the Abrahamic Method of Deceit?”– CD

    What can the avg person grasp, and/or what do we need to give them a glimpse of out of necessity? Strictly Constructed Laws – even if they don’t understand the details, this can be sold as solution to activist judges and undermining of the constitution. (You did a great job explaining it on most recent P-constitition video interview.) Abrahamic Method – the term itself triggers Christians, but the basic concept of “don’t say anything that excuses a violation of reciprocity” is understandable by the avg person. Testimonial Truth – details a bit much for avg person, but concept that there’s a checklist courts use to figure out whether a public figure is lying, I think is understandable, and may be necessary to “sell” free truthful speech vs free speech. And the avg person may be able to understand certain aspects of it, such as the concept of lying by omission or lying by mixing 2 concepts/definitions together.