Source: Facebook

STORY OF MY LIFE

(venting)

Now that you have once again learned what happens when you disagree with my business forecasts, and cost us and shareholders millions, can you please stop disagreeing? Its not like this was a unique case.

Do us all a f–king favor and try to know more than I do. But dont try to be smarter than I am. It wont work. And it costs us money.

Without intending to I have integrated Austrian thought so deeply that I pretty much see the world as nothing but incentives.

You collectively still rely on the error of induction. But the past has little bearing on the future unless past incentives are also current incentives.

This little twist: merging incentives theory with anti-inductivist critical rationalism, defeats induction and inductive intuition at all times.

And thats your problem. You think you’re rational but your’e not, because induction is false. It is the result of evolution – a cognitive bias.

And intuition is also inductive. Its how we evolved to make associations. But induction, whether intuitive, rational, or empirical, is still false.

And even if you try to model it, Empiricism isn’t enough. Its only enough if you measure incentives. Because the past was a product of past incentives and the present is a product of present incentives and empirical data that is divorced from that relationship is worth precisely zero. The past does not predict the future unless incentives are the same. In that sense incentives, and not the past, are all that matter.

FURTHERMORE.

And this may be more relevant to you. People are only moral when their interests are marginally indifferent. We would like to think otherwise. But there isn’t any evidence at all to support that desire.

Morality is a cost. All moral actions carry costs. Those costs are opportunity costs

If you are in business with people who have different economic and financial incentives you must treat them as if morality is merely a form of manners, but not a promise of future conduct.

So please stop trying to be smarter than I am. Cause its not because I am particularly smart. Its because you are not particularly wise.

Idiots.