Curt Doolittle shared a post.
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 10:51:00 UTC
Curt Doolittle shared a post.
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 10:51:00 UTC
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/06/investing/amazon-rules-retail-worth-more-than-almost-everyone/index.htmlSensational Falsehood of the day: ‘Company Value’
1) MONETARY PRESERVATION OR GROWTH VALUE
A company share value is meaningless. It’s a popularity contest. And not a meaningful measure of comparison. Most of the time one is investing in *psychology* – market momentum, irrespective of its fundamentals.
2) INVESTMENT VALUE (DIVIDENDS / APPRECIATION)
Investing in the dividends and appreciation of the company because of its fundamentals.
3) OPERATING VALUE (PROFITS)
A company’s market share, revenue, profit, and trends, are meaningful measures of comparison.
A company’s PRICE can be determined by a multiple of its revenue and profits in relation to the expected time horizon of returns.
4) EXIT VALUE
If owner/management wishes to exit, what can they sell the company for? This is usually a multiple of operating profit discounted by the loss of key management.
5) ASSET VALUE
A company’s WORTH is its fixed asset value at liquidation.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
Because the stock market functions as a savings plan for the country and for the world. So the financial sector looks at companies as a way to move money at low cost to where it will, in aggregate, across their portfolio, mix wins and losses into a profit.
So Amazon is worth more than sears, macy’s target becasue their revenues and market share are worth more than macy’s and targets.
Apple on the other hand is a fashion brand that becasue of the iphone could be eradicated quickly. Facebook more so. google less so. Although – the moment you can search by voice and actually get the information you want, the opportunity to advertise will disappear, and the company that succeeds at that will destroy google’s market value.
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 10:07:00 UTC
Peter (all),
(again, probably epistemologically too technical for this crowd)
RE: https://www.facebook.com/peter.boettke/posts/10158213805095389
IT’S NOT A CASE OF MISINTERPRETATION BUT MISREPRESENTATION, AND IGNORANCE
There is a difference between:
(a) misinterpretation and misrepresentation.
(b) monopoly/authoritarianism(subjective/apriorism/operationalism vs objective/existential/empiricism) and competition(survival from criticism in both apriorism and empiricism)
(c) scientists(survival from criticism) and ideologues (justificationism as in misesian/rothbardians)
ASSERTION
Any and every statement of social science proposed as a truth claim must survive the following forms of criticism, of which AUSTRIAN economist’s operationalism/intuitionism (misnamed ‘methodological individualism’) provides the first INNOVATION in science in over a century.
1) categorical consistency (identity – non conflation)
2) logical consistency (internal consistency)
3) empirical consistency (external correspondence)
4) existential consistency (operational language/intuitionism/methodological individualism)
5) reciprocal consistency (objectively moral: productive, fully in formed, warrantied, voluntary transfer, limited to productive externalities)
6) scope consistency (full accounting, limits, and parsimony – where full accounting includes the difference in opportunity costs: the seen, unseen / intended, unintended / caused, uncaused.)
That completes the scientific method.
When a mainstream quantitative (correlative) economist issues his findings, in almost NO case does he test (4)(5)(6), and arguably they rarely test (1). In other words, most mainstream (correlative) economists cherry-pick in order to defend priors and desired measures.
We succeed at what we measure. We fail at what we don’t.
WHO IS AT FAULT
1) The Mises Institute has polluted the informational commons for 30 years, if for no other reason than they are philosophically sophomoric to the last man. Their propagandizing by making innovative use of the internet to capture interest has created large numbers of activists who lack breadth of knowledge necessary to judge (test) the ideology they absorb.
2) While the Christian Austrians (austrians proper) maintained a metaphysical (subconscious) accounting of the challenge of organizing the commons (an aristocratic bias), many if not all of the Cosmopolitan Austrians (jewish Austrians), like the Rousseau, ignored the cost of organizing the commons, under the pretense that man was oppressed – rather than domesticated by the aristocracy (like any other animal) through the use of war, governance, law, and policy. Yes, domesticating man was profitable. It continues to be. That does not mean man was oppressed if it means forcing him into the market and to respect life, liberty, and property.
3) Academic Practitioners of operationalism / intuitionism / methodological-individualism AND empirical observation are almost equally philosophically sophomoric in their understanding of the innovation of the Austrian method, as the first instance of operationalism/intuitionism discovered in ANY of the sciences.
This is because (a) philosophers were distracted by the pseudoscientific effort of trying to make analytic philosophy of language into a ‘science’. (b) Popper/Kuhn failed to complete the scientific method sufficiently to explain why it worked so successfully, and therefore how to apply it to adaptive systems (social science), and while Hayek correctly identified information as the model we should study in social science, and correctly identified the common natural law as the means of regulating that information, he failed to learn from Simmel, Weber and Mises, as well as Brouwer and Bridgman how the scientific method could be captured in law and used to regulate that information. (c) the Incentive to take advantage of fiat currency (stock in the state’s revenue and income potential) was so great that economists were as equally distracted by the use of it to obtain legitimacy and influence as were philosophers distracted by the philosophy of language to obtain legitimacy and influence.
WHY DOES AUSTRIAN ECON MATTER?
1) because operationalism is more important in social science than physical science, and physical science more important than in mathematics, for the simple reason that the difference between the methods of observation and survival (proof/test/criticism) are trivial in mathematics, limited in physical science, and expansive in social and cognitive science.
2) because Austrians discovered operationalism in economics where it is most important of all sciences other than perhaps psychology.
3) because by discovering operationalism in economics, Austrians largely completed the scientific method – despite failing to grasp that they had done so.
KNOWING THIS, HOW DO WE REPOSITION AUSTRIAN ECON?
1) By using both empirical and operational methods, Austrian econ’s are engaged in social science: the study of human cooperation those markets for reproduction, production of private goods and services and information, production of common goods, services, and information, and production of competition against other groups (group evolutionary strategy). THEY PRACTICE SCIENCE.
2) By attempting to correct accumulated misinformation in the economy and assist networks of sustainable specialization and trade in adaptation, Chicago (freshwater) economists are attempting to (a)remain within rule of natural law (social science) and preserving the individual’s (b) ability to forecast and plan, (c) protection from retroactive legislation (policy) required by natural law. THEY PRACTICE MORAL SCIENCE.
3) By attempting to maximize consumption, mainstream economists ignore social science, violate natural law, and insert disinformation into the economy to the point where disinformation and malincentives accumulate on longer time horizons at greater scale, than individuals, organizations, the economy, the nation, and the civilization can adapt to. THEY PRACTICE DECEITFUL, IMMORAL, PSEUDOSCIENCE.
WHERE CAN YOU LEARN MORE ABOUT AUSTRIAN ECON’S PLACE IN HISTORY?
This post contains pointers to a series of articles that position Menger/Mises and their discovery in intellectual history as part of the movement of late 19th and early 20th century that failed, and allowed us to be subject to 100 years of social pseudoscience.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/scientific.praxeology/permalink/750994611656577/
Curt Doolittle
The Propertarian Institute
Kiev, Ukraine
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 09:54:00 UTC
Retweeted 🐸 hbd nrx 🐸 (@HbdNrx):
This was great stuff for helping Europe become less clannish. Now we’ve gone too far and need the opposite. https://t.co/XxPF0y9Haw
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 08:07:00 UTC
Well done.
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-06 19:30:00 UTC
#nukeChicago #nukeOakland #nukeBaltimore #nukeDetroit #nukeStLouis
I mean, if we’re gonna do Chicago, we might as well go big or go home. 😉
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-05 19:34:00 UTC
Joshua
Claiming to have provided a warranty of due diligence against error, bias, wishful thinking, suggestion, obscurantism (pseudorationalism, pseudoscience) and deceit, without having done so.
In practice this means following the scientific method, but the completeness of that method’s practice is the question.
In social science as in psychology, we know that reported preference data is basically impossible to trust, whereas demonstrated preference data largely contradicts reported data.
We know that in psychology, they’ve spent the past 30 years trying to escape pseudoscience, because projection in psychology (observation) is as impossible as reported data.
We konw that both economics (vs social science) and cognitive science (vs psychology) caused both disciplines to reform. We know genetics and archaeology ( vs anthropology ) caused the discipline to to begin (slowly) to reform. And a present we are seeing demographic and voting patterns refute both educational ‘science’ and ‘political science’. All for the same reasons: subjective reporting is impossible wither it be self observation or other-observation.
So, when we say that the scientific method requires a warranty of due diligence, and that we require empircal due diiligence in particular, then the means by which we warranty that we are free of error, bias, wishful thinking, suggestion, obscurantism, and deceit largely depends upon the construction of instrumentation, and the recording of data that is not subject to subjective interpretation.
Secondly, the most common error after subjective reporting, is temporal variability or what is often called ‘externalities’. In other words, you might measure something and think it’s a good, but you fail to measure the externalities (consequences) which might be very bad (the energy consumption of producing a photovoltaic panel has until recently been far in excess of its lifetime productivity.)
Thirdly, one must report on one’s criteria of decidability in the statement of a judgement of good, neutral, or bad. Meaning, one cannot take for granted that one’s value judgements are rational, and certainly not scientific. What are those priors? have we tested them? Or in other words, you cannot deduce from false premises, and you cannot equally deduce from false value judgements – doing so is an other form of reporting error.
But that is not the full scope we must warranty against. That full scope is:
1 – categorical consistency (identity)
2 – logical consistency (internally consistent)
3 – empirical consistency (externally correspondent)
4 – existential consistency (by use of operational language)
5 – scope consistency (full accounting, limits, and parsimony – where full accounting includes deltas in opportunity costs.)
6 – reciprocity consistency (or what we call objective morality)
Unfortunately, while most people are reluctant to comment on the physical sciences when they do not feel that they understand them, the average person at every level of society feels qualified to comment on psychological, social, political, and economic phenomenon that are in fact quite more complex than the physical.
But then this is a cognitive bias we all share. That’s because we evolved to negotiate on behalf of our reproductive interests (genes) and not to tell the truth. The average person equates truth with ‘in my, my kin’s, my alliances’, and my nation;s reproductive interests.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Curt Doolittle,
The Propertarian Institute,
Kiev, Ukraine
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-05 11:31:00 UTC
—“The university system does more harm than good now”— Jordan Peterson
—“The University has moved OUTSIDE of the universities. Many universities are now ideological factories. The only thing universities have is accreditation.”—
DO WE BUILD THE PROPERTARIAN INSTITUTE AS A TRADE SCHOOL? A school of natural law?
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-05 08:22:00 UTC
THE PATTERN OF HUMAN ERROR IN PSEUDOSCIENCE
(from elsewhere)
Mark,
There is a pattern to human error.
There is a particular pattern to 20th c. error, if not to enlightenment error, and certainly to French->Cosmopolitan error.
One does not need to necessarily know the answer to a scientific question as much as know the categories of error that humans make in pursuing answers to questions. In other words, when confronted with a complex problem, it is just as valuable to look at cognitive, personal, social, cultural, and methodological biases as it is to explore the question. (Einstein’s late discovery is an example of our assumption of the nature of such a basic concept as length.)
Anti-spanking, like anti-fist-fighting, like anti-duelling, like anti-hanging (death penalty), like anti-war sentiments fall into a category of common human errors. Just like democracy, universalism, scale, peace, and predictability fall into that same category of human error.
Maximizing the pleasure or comfort of individual life on a society-wide scale is the result of conspicuous consumption in an era of windfall-wealth.
A simple person can isolate a particular cause effect relationship but this fails to make take full accounting of the consequences of ‘the peace’: fragility, vulnerability, overextension, risk expansion.
How do you know that the luxury good of not-doing X (in this case spanking) is in fact a good, rather than an example of hyperconsumption that causes externalities that are the opposite of what one predicts?
And is not the Period of the 19th and 20th century science not one of a series of optimistic predictions the culmination of which are rather obvious bads?
Keynesian economics appears to be a good. Democracy appears to be good. Universal enfranchisement seems to be a good. No fault divorce seemed to be a good. Social security seems to be a good. Welfare seems to be a good.
We have attempted to create many goods that are dependent upon what we call ‘science’. But the experiment that we have been conducting since the enlightenment seems entirely predicated upon the physical sciences – and almost everything we have attempted in the social sciences that was the product of the Cosmopolitan enlightenment (Boaz, Marx, Freud, Adorno-et-al) appears to be false. If for no other reason than the time scale of our measurements.
In other words, our SENSES and our REASONING from our senses appears to be just as erroneous in social science as it was in physical science prior to empiricism. And we solved much more of physical science precisely because it’s more simple than social science given the rate at which changes are reflected in the universe.
We have mostly overthrown all Boaz, Marx-Keynes, Freud by the replacement of their disciplines with anthropology, genetics, and cognitive science. Our libertarian and conservative movements are attempting to overthrow Adorno-et-al. But the reason that we are the victims of pseudoscience in anthropology, politics, sociology, psychology, economics, and to a lesser degree in physics, came out of the enlightenment – an era in which each society (british, american, german, french, jewish/cosmopolitan, and russian) attempted to state their LOCAL group evolutionary strategy as a universal moral good, as a justification for overthrowing the church-monarchy balance of powers with a political monopoly we call ‘democracy’.
Now, I work on this problem, so does Taleb – albeit we work from different perspectives – but any number of historians work on it (Ferguson, Acemoglu, Emmanuel Todd et all.) And we are all engaged in attempting to correct these erroneous presumptions that have caused the accumulated damage to western civilization despite the vast returns on (largely 19th c.) science.
And it’s very easy, from the perspective of “humans are making these kinds of errors all over the place for these historical reasons”, simply because of the insufficiency of what we call the scientific method, to identify areas of high probably of error by the kind of arguments made and the means of decidability those arguments depend upon.
And spanking, like all anti-violence, anti-stress, hyperconsumptive arguments fall into that category.
Cheers
Curt Doolittle
The Propertarian Institute
Kiev, Ukraine
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-05 07:46:00 UTC
(officially stupid. this time of year I can’t work 15 hours. useless. time for scifi B movies.)
Source date (UTC): 2017-01-04 21:28:00 UTC