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I have a different job. We can make a lot of claims. So far we’re not seeing much of anything manifest other than hyper-availability of capital in narrow sectors leads to overcompensation and ‘investment’ in speculative returns.

I don’t see the new renaissance. I see a correction as horrific as the plague and great depression at once, becuase the birth rate collapse is of greater scale than the plague, the best people are not reproducing and IQ is precipitous, and we failed to end enough of the surviving agrarian empires, and we failed to reform our government upon (a) completing settlement of the continent (b) and the end of the communist era, and now (c) the damage caused by the feminization of institutions which is likely irreversible.

I see tech leaving ‘us guys’ meaning those that are capable of rare and challenging work continuing our climb, and the decimation of white collar work, restoring the viability of blue collar work.

The left killed us. Women were the poison they used. Immigration prevented our recovery. We lack the population and IQ point advantage we began with. And we have lost demographic control of our institutions that would be necessary for recovery. And even then we’ve exhausted the classical liberal era of expansion by conquest using entrepreneurs instead of state financing. And that’s most obvious in the success of fascism and chinese fascism to use the state not for caretaking (as the west did because of leftism) but for generation of competitive advantage.

I just don’t see it. And I’m not wrong very often. We are always constrained by limits. Even if AI is a leap, it doesn’t have hands and it can only work through humans. We need those humans. And it looks like we’re going to have a five to eight year processor winter if that ‘trillion dollar’ (nonsense) investment doesn’t happen yesterday.

Reply addressees: @cryptodiaries