Curt Doolittle

Form: Argument

  • You have beliefs and motivated reasoning. I have science and empirical reasoning

    You have beliefs and motivated reasoning. I have science and empirical reasoning.

    Stereotypes are accurate predictors of behavior. This means groups insure against those negative behaviors.

    There is no value in bearing costs of opportunity in cooperation vs the risk of conflict or loss in cooperation. Your insinuation is that people are too dumb or ignorant to make that assessment when the first principle of all sentient action is the greatest return in the shortest time, at the last cost, and lowest risk, with the greatest certainty, in competition with all other opportunities at the moment.

    People make rational judgements – always – given the information available to them.

    Why risk any interaction with a population whose behavior and criminality is six times worse than your own people?

    IT’s a bad investment. WE have only so many investments to make.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-12-18 20:59:50 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001759334452334987

  • Stereotypes are endemic throughout all recorded history, and are a necessary pro

    Stereotypes are endemic throughout all recorded history, and are a necessary property of predictive discrimination. And it’s empirical since it must survive daily observation at population scale. This is why stereotypes are the most accurate measure in social science. The problem becomes when, not predicting probability of group or individual behavior, but when attempting to cooperate with an individual under the presumption. In other words, stereotypes are an accurate description of a class of people, but a class of people consists of a distribution, and as such we can judge a class by the properties of its individuals but cannot judge an individual by the properties of their class.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-12-18 20:44:22 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001755441987232166

  • CASSANDRA’S CURSE AND THE IMPACT OF WOMEN I say women without children misdirect

    CASSANDRA’S CURSE AND THE IMPACT OF WOMEN
    I say women without children misdirect their instincts until their child-load is high enough to think vaguely rationally as do men, since 2009 at the latest, in greater detail, with diagrams. And of course … floods of criticism. Almost fifteen years later it’s working through the discourse.

    What value is there in being early? My work on civilization is early. My work on AI is early.

    And yes I know the reason, because Ariella reminds me six times a day: (a) people have to be ready to hear it, and (b) you must say it in terms they can hear.

    Another example of why democracies – at least mass democracies – have been unsuccessful except in periods of economic windfalls: usually from resource discovery and exploitation. (Like the continental americas).

    This is why I am adamant that rights (defensive) and privileges (offensive) must be earned by demonstration of responsibility for the private AND the common.

    This has been the only successful criteria for scaling participation while providing incentives to bear responsibility rather than avoid it.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-29 17:57:01 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994827957328908490

  • All language consists of measurement. (yes) There should be no reason that if so

    All language consists of measurement. (yes)
    There should be no reason that if something is described in language it can’t be modeled. The question is wether the LLM can be constrained to an operational model using langauge or it must use a tool (shell out) to do so (as it does with programming). To some degree we should treat programming as the equivalent of humans using any measurement tool.
    In our work we force high dimensionality questions into operational prose, sequences of tests, and distinct outputs. I can’t yet fully test it’s operationalization against the ternary logic hierarchy since I need to finish what I’m working on first. But the partial tests work fine.
    But asking it how to fix a 64 ford carburetor or something of that nature is wholly dependent upon existing text. Which is true for anything in that real world category.
    I dont consider any of that very challenging. The robotics folks are tearing up the universe already. So between self driving (perception and navigation), robotics (manipulation and transformation) and llms (concepts and language) it’s just a matter (just? 😉 ) of representing and interfacing the three domains. And we have data models and languages for doing so.
    Regardless of what others think, IMO the hard problem has always been language, and attention was the revolutionary leap that made it possible. Language is the system of measurement for humans at human scale.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-28 23:58:27 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994556524400971860

  • Neoteny Argument Claim: Human populations display an intra-species gradient in n

    Neoteny Argument

    Claim:
    Human populations display an intra-species gradient in neoteny; this gradient is empirically measurable, heritable, and predictive of cognitive and institutional phenotypes after controlling for environmental variance.
    1.1 Developmental Anatomy & Timing
    Neoteny refers to delayed somatic, neural, and behavioral maturation relative to reproductive age (Gould 1977). Within humans, measurable population-level differences exist in:
    • craniofacial morphology (Brace et al., 1991; Harvati & Weaver, 2006)
    • growth curves and skeletal maturation (Bogin, 1999)
    • prefrontal cortex development tempo (Petanjek et al., 2011)
    • sexual dimorphism and androgen receptor sensitivity (Puts et al., 2016)
    These differences represent quantitative developmental-timing variables, not categorical “racial traits.”
    Natural Law requirement: measurable, commensurable indices (NL Vol. 2: Measurement) .
    2.1 Standard Evolutionary Biology Prediction
    Life-history theory predicts that slower developmental tempo correlates with:
    • increased neocortical size and plasticity
    • enhanced executive function
    • reduced reactive aggression
    • greater investment in learning
    (Refs: Kaplan et al., 2000; Kuzawa & Bragg, 2012; Walker et al., 2006.)
    2.2 Empirical Support
    Population-level correlations exist between developmental tempo and:
    • general intelligence (g) (Lynn & Vanhanen 2012; Rindermann, 2018)
    • executive function (Ardila et al., 2005)
    • impulse control (Moffitt et al., 2011)
    • reaction time (Woodley et al., 2015)
    • delayed gratification / time preference (Wang et al., 2016; Daly & Wilson, 2005)
    These are robust cross-cultural findings.
    Natural Law requirement: cross-domain testifiability and universal commensurability (NL Vol. 2; Vol. 3: Evolutionary Computation) .
    3.1 Cooperation Grammar Effects
    Behavioral traits associated with slower tempo (norm-adherence, impulse control, lower aggression, long time-horizons) strongly predict:
    • rule-following behavior (Henrich, 2020)
    • contract enforcement (La Porta et al., 1999)
    • low corruption and high institutional trust (Inglehart & Welzel, 2005; Rothstein & Uslaner, 2005)
    • cooperation in large-scale, impersonal environments (Turchin et al., 2013)
    These patterns replicate globally and align with established theories of life-history strategy → cooperation style → institutions.
    Natural Law requirement: institutions emerge from behavioral equilibria produced by environmental constraints (NL Vol. 1: visibility, cooperation, constraint) .
    4.1 Heritability Evidence
    Developmental timing traits (pubertal onset, brain maturation tempo, craniofacial growth) show substantial heritability:
    • Pubertal timing: h² = 0.50–0.80 (Towne et al., 2005; Silventoinen et al., 2008)
    • Brain maturation tempo: h² ~ 0.80 (Lenroot et al., 2009)
    • Craniofacial morphology: h² 0.40–0.80 (Johannsdottir et al., 2005)
    4.2 Behavioral Genetics Controls
    Cognitive and behavioral traits linked to neoteny also show high heritabilities:
    • intelligence: h² 0.50–0.80 (Plomin & Deary 2015)
    • executive function: h² 0.40–0.60 (Friedman et al., 2008)
    • impulsivity / self-control: h² 0.40–0.70 (Beaver et al., 2009)
    4.3 Environmental Partitioning Studies
    The causal chain remains robust after controlling for environment:
    • Twin/adoption studies: cognitive & behavioral traits track inherited tempo, not household environment (Bouchard, 2004)
    • Transnational migration studies: life-history traits persist across cultural environments (Nettle, 2011)
    • GWAS data: tempo-related traits (height, puberty, schooling duration) correlate with polygenic scores (Okbay et al., 2016; Day et al., 2017)
    Conclusion: Environmental variance modulates expression but does not eliminate inherited population differences in developmental tempo.
    Natural Law requirement: causality must survive adversarial partitioning (NL Vol. 2: Decidability) .
    Across biological, cognitive, and institutional domains, the same causal chain persists:
    Ecology → developmental tempo → neoteny → cognitive architecture → cooperation grammar → institutional phenotype.
    This structure corresponds to NL Vol. 3’s general model:
    constraint → stable relation → phenotype → behavior → institution
    This is a decidable causal sequence under Natural Law:
    • operationally measurable,
    • cross-domain testifiable,
    • falsifiable,
    • and robust under adversarial controls.
    Intra-species neoteny gradients are:
    1. empirically measurable,
    2. genetically influenced,
    3. developmentally causal,
    4. behaviorally expressed,
    5. institutionally consequential,
    6. and decidable under the Natural Law framework.
    Environmental factors modulate—but do not eliminate—the inherited developmental-tempo differences that predict cognitive style and institutional capacity.
    Any model denying these relationships must reject established findings across     evolutionary biology, behavioral genetics, developmental neuroscience, anthropology, and NL’s requirement for operational, measurable, testifiable categories.
    Core Evolutionary Biology / Life History
    • Bogin, B. (1999). Patterns of Human Growth.
    • Gould, S. J. (1977). Ontogeny and Phylogeny.
    • Kaplan, H. et al. (2000). “A theory of human life history evolution.”
    • Kuzawa, C. & Bragg, J. (2012). “Plasticity in human life history.”
    • Walker, R. et al. (2006). “Life history theory and human brain development.”
    Neural Development
    • Petanjek, Z. et al. (2011). “Protracted synaptic development in the human prefrontal cortex.”
    • Lenroot, R. et al. (2009). “Genetic influences on brain structure across development.”
    Craniofacial & Anatomical Variation
    • Brace, C. L. et al. (1991). “Reflections on race and human biology.”
    • Harvati, K., & Weaver, T. (2006). “Human craniofacial variation.”
    Behavioral & Cognitive Genetics
    • Plomin, R., & Deary, I. (2015). “Genetics and intelligence differences.”
    • Friedman, N. et al. (2008). “Genetics of executive function.”
    • Beaver, K. et al. (2009). “Genetic influences on self-control.”
    • Okbay, A. et al. (2016). “GWAS for educational attainment.”
    • Day, F. et al. (2017). “Genetic determinants of puberty timing.”
    Behavior, Cooperation, Institutions
    • Henrich, J. (2020). The WEIRDest People in the World.
    • La Porta, R. et al. (1999). “The quality of government.”
    • Rothstein, B. & Uslaner, E. (2005). “All for all: equality, corruption, and trust.”
    • Turchin, P. et al. (2013). “Ultrasociality and warfare in state formation.”
    Time Preference & Life History
    • Daly, M., & Wilson, M. (2005). “Carpe diem: life-history and time preference.”
    • Wang, X. et al. (2016). “Life history and delay discounting.”
    Migration / Adoption Evidence
    • Bouchard, T. (2004). “Genetic influence on human psychological differences.”
    • Nettle, D. (2011). “Evolution of personality variation.”
    Global Cognitive Variation
    • Lynn, R., & Vanhanen, T. (2012). Intelligence: A Unifying Construct.
    • Rindermann, H. (2018). Cognitive Capitalism.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-27 02:01:12 UTC

    Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/1993862640947614223

  • This is a grammatical problem, and a logical problem. 1) A state of nothing cann

    This is a grammatical problem, and a logical problem.
    1) A state of nothing cannot be brought into existence.
    2) Nothing means ‘relatively’ – meaning nothing persistent within existence.
    3) The universe and some elements within it exist and persist since existence means persistence.
    4) Once you accept that there is a totality of existence, asking why that totality exists rather than a different one (the null totality) may be incoherent, because any explanatory framework already assumes existence.”
    5) We don’t’ know. But nothingness can’t exist except as the relative absence of something else.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-23 00:12:27 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992385723757220288

  • If you were strapped in chair in a sensory deprivation chamber, or blind and dea

    If you were strapped in chair in a sensory deprivation chamber, or blind and deaf like Hellen Keller, and could only talk to people by microphone and headphones, but were otherwise the equivalent of a brain in a jar, you would be conscious. But absent ‘qualia’. In other words, a brain in a jar might not understand the color red but could have a verbal knowledge of it. Even memorize the color chart. That doesn’t mean you aren’t conscious.

    You’re conscious because you can monitor and react to, respond to, and contemplate the stream of information that you are subject to – about the past three seconds. Consciousness is a faculty of enough hierarchical recursive memory (loops), valence that judges them, and the search for homeostasis in time and over time to determine that valence.

    It’s not even complicated other than doing it in real time is biologically costly. more than 10x as costly as muscles.

    That’s why the degree of consciousness of animals is roughly tue do the number of neurons and their hierarchical organization.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-21 05:09:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991735740267655330

  • FRONTIER MODELS ARE A COMMODITY. They are trying to add features to compensate f

    FRONTIER MODELS ARE A COMMODITY.
    They are trying to add features to compensate for failing to produce constraint, closure, and decidability.

    There is no alternative to our Governance Layer.

    Run it, or be left behind.

    http://
    Runcible.com

    …

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-21 04:05:48 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991719672618840301

  • AS I SAID ALL ALONG – THE VACCINE WAS UNNECESSARY FOR ALL BUT THE FRAIL, AND SHO

    AS I SAID ALL ALONG – THE VACCINE WAS UNNECESSARY FOR ALL BUT THE FRAIL, AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN VOLUNTARY

    –“A 2024 JAMA Health Forum analysis estimates COVID vaccines saved just 0.07% of U.S. lives among young adults aged 20-29, versus over 50% in those over 65, supporting the post’s view that benefits were marginal for healthy low-risk people while rare side effects like myocarditis occurred at rates of 1-10 per 100,000 doses per CDC data.”–

    They killed our economy, and ruined a generation of children’s education despite the statistical evidence being obvious to any of us who specialize in such matters.

    IMO it had political rather than health objectives. And it destroyed what little trust the population had in the government.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-18 18:08:05 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1990844475221160328

  • The distribution of neoteny, intelligence, agency, ability, and personality trai

    The distribution of neoteny, intelligence, agency, ability, and personality traits, in particular between the sexes, and classes and races means that libertarianism is only possible for and rational for, a minority of exceptional individuals. So the people least desirous of political power are the people most suited to it – only if they have a practical understanding of human nature and experience in managing populations. Ergo it is rule of law by the natural law that enables those people with such constructive biases to deliver value to themselves as well as the polity.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-10-31 19:38:40 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1984344290127200587