Category: Science, Physics, and Philosophy of Science

  • We just dunno yet

    http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/19/the-intermittent-little-ice-age/#more-17805ie: We just dunno yet.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-02-20 07:58:00 UTC

  • Untitled

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/tea-party-science-98488.html


    Source date (UTC): 2015-02-16 05:12:00 UTC

  • “This article requires a Controversy section. I came here looking for it. Surpri

    –“This article requires a Controversy section. I came here looking for it. Surprised it wasn’t included. Particularly in reference to pseudoscience in the social sciences, and on Boas as one of the most influential pseudoscientists produced by the Cosmopolitan movement. And I’m kind of surprised at the ‘heaping of unworthy praise’, and the total abandonment of the NPOV in the article. We all love our heroes, but many of our heroes turn out to be largely wrong. Marx, Freud, Boas, Cantor, Mises, Rothbard and Gould were wrong – and the consequences will be the subject of study for centuries, just as Hayek had suggested (“…the century of mysticism”) . That doesn’t mean Boas didn’t positively influence culture, but it doesn’t forgive the fact that despite his claims of empiricism, he was engaging in not just bad science, but pseudoscience (and there is a difference). And it’s only been since the beginning of the Pinker era that he’s been incrementally corrected, and at this point largely discredited. Darwin, Weber, Pareto, Durkheim each with their flaws, but producing better work. Now, I am perhaps part of a new generation of thinkers, and I am perhaps more sensitive to pseudoscience because debunking it and preventing it is one of my areas of research, but facts are facts, history is history, and Boas requires a Controversy section.”—


    Source date (UTC): 2015-02-14 18:43:00 UTC

  • Pinker started it the revolution. We have momentum. But like Aristotle, we are l

    Pinker started it the revolution.

    We have momentum.

    But like Aristotle, we are looking backward at a lost opportunity.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-02-11 03:27:00 UTC

  • Untitled

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-mercola/fluoride_b_2479833.html


    Source date (UTC): 2015-02-09 04:03:00 UTC

  • evolution tied to a small fraction of the genome – “Only about 7.5 percent of th

    http://www.sciencenews.org/article/human-evolution-tied-small-fraction-genome—“Human evolution tied to a small fraction of the genome – “Only about 7.5 percent of the human genetic instruction book shaped the evolution of human traits, a new study suggests. And it’s often not genes, but the how-to instructions for using those genes that are most important, researchers report January 19 in Nature Genetics…. Previously, researchers have mostly looked for evolutionary clues in protein-producing genes because proteins do much of the important work in cells and organisms. Altering a protein may change the way an organism looks or acts. But mutations that alter proteins often are devastating to an organism and therefore aren’t passed on to offspring. Gulko and colleagues found that only 9 percent of the DNA that got evolution’s attention resides in protein-coding parts of the genome that are shared with other species. About 52 percent of the places showing signs of natural selection were in intergenic regions, the stretches of DNA between genes. Another 35 percent were in introns — spacer DNA found within genes but not involved in encoding proteins. Both intergenic regions and introns often contain DNA responsible for controlling gene activity. These findings suggest that human evolution works mostly through changes in how genes are used, rather than by altering genes and the proteins they encode.”—


    Source date (UTC): 2015-01-28 01:36:00 UTC

  • OPINION IS THAT MAN’S ACTIONS ARE NOISE IN THE SUN’S SIGNAL. “If you look at the

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/MY OPINION IS THAT MAN’S ACTIONS ARE NOISE IN THE SUN’S SIGNAL.

    “If you look at the literature, the specific meaning of the 97% claim is: 97 percent of climate scientists agree that there is a global warming trend and that human beings are the main cause–that is, that we are over 50% responsible. The warming is a whopping 0.8 degrees over the past 150 years, a warming that has tapered off to essentially nothing in the last decade and a half.”

    Thank you Skye Stewart


    Source date (UTC): 2015-01-10 09:01:00 UTC

  • “We invented science and reason twice. We can do it a third time if we have to.”

    “We invented science and reason twice. We can do it a third time if we have to.” — Don Finnegan


    Source date (UTC): 2014-12-31 07:40:00 UTC

  • FOUR CLIMATE PREDICTIONS I PUT MONEY ON: New Climate Predictions (from SSRC Pres

    FOUR CLIMATE PREDICTIONS I PUT MONEY ON:

    New Climate Predictions (from SSRC Press Release 4-2014).

    a. The Earth is about to begin a steep drop in global temperatures. The analysis of the level and variability of sunspots in the current solar cycle 24, including the warming of atmospheric temperatures between 2013 and 2014 indicates that the Earth is following a climate change path similar to solar cycle 5, during the last 206 year solar cycle driven solar hibernation.

    b. Average global atmospheric and oceanic temperatures will drop significantly beginning between 2015 and 2016.

    c. The predicted temperature decline will continue for the next fifteen years and likely will be the steepest ever recorded in human history discounting past short term volcanic events.

    d. Global average temperatures during the 2030’s will reach a level of 1-1.5°C lower than the peak year of 1998.

    FURTHERMORE

    We still have no idea if CO2, or other increases in gas concentration produce anticipated outcomes, especially given the geological record.

    HOWEVER

    The reason for increases in pollutants, decreases in competing life forms, and overconsumption is rapid increases in reproduction by the underclasses made possible by the adoption of western technology. As such the only problem the climate and the planet face, and will continue to face, is unchecked human reproduction.

    THERE IS ONLY ONE PROBLEM

    Rates of reproduction of the unproductive underclasses.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-12-25 06:29:00 UTC

  • (INTRODUCTORY READING 3) SCIENCE IS THE DISCIPLINE OF SPEAKING TRUTHFULLY – IN A

    (INTRODUCTORY READING 3)

    SCIENCE IS THE DISCIPLINE OF SPEAKING TRUTHFULLY – IN ALL DISCIPLINES

    ———————————————————————————-

    Science is a moral discipline wherein we criticize our ideas, so that we can speak them truthfully:

    — We test our reasoning with logic for internal consistency.

    — We test our observations with external correspondence.

    — We test existence of our premises with operations.

    — We test the scope of our theory with falsifications.

    Once we have tested our theories by these means, then we can say that we speak truthfully – and as such do no harm.

    The central argument regarding truth:

    … that humans in order to cooperate, humans evolved sympathy for intent – and are marginally indifferent in their judgement of intentions. This allows us to sympathetically test most human incentives if subject to the same stimuli (information). It is also why juries can functions, since this sympathetic testing of intentions is the criteria by which juries render decisions.

    … that we cannot however sympathize with the equivalent of intentions (first principles) of the physical universe. So while we intuit and and can test man’s intentions, we cannot measure and test the universe’s first principles. As such, the best we can do is testify to observations and measurements of those phenomenon until at some point we know those first principles – if that is ever possible.

    … but our observations must also be reduced to stimuli that can be sympathetically tested by others, and insulated from our deception, bias and error.

    … we call this process ‘science’, but the practice of science is little more than a set of moral rules that instruct us as to how to eliminate deception, bias and error. The scientific method then, is merely a moral discipline: the means by which we struggle to speak the truth, as truthfully as we may possibly accomplish given the frailty of our reason.

    … that giving witness to one’s observations, is testable by reproduction of a set of operational definitions. That operational definitions produce the equivalent of names, just as positional numbering provides quantities with names. Such names are insulated from deception, distraction, loading, framing and overloading. Theories are not. While we cannot demonstrate the absolute parsimony of a theory (that we know of), we can demonstrate that we truthfully conveyed our observations. In other words, we can testify truthfully to an ordered set of facts, even if we cannot testify truthfully to parsimony of a theory.

    ….that it is possible to state instead that all outputs of scientific investigation are true, if they are truthfully represented – where ‘scientific investigation” refers to the use of the scientific method, regardless of field of inquiry. But that we seek the most parsimonious statement of a theory, and we can never know that we have obtained it, we can only develop consensus that we cannot cause it to fail. This is, as far as I know, the best non-platonic description of truth available. Everything else is a linguistic contrivance for one purpose or another – possibly to obscure ignorance, and possibly to load ideas with moral motivation. Scientists load their contrivance of truth, and mathematicians load their contrivance of numbers, limits, and a dozen other things – most of which obscure linguistic ‘cheats’ to give authority to that which is necessary for the construction of general rules. (ie: the problem of arbitrary precision).

    … that Popper did no investigation into science or the history of science prior to making his argument, and that as yet, we do not have a systematic account of the history of science. However, what history we do have, both distant and recent, is that science operates by criticism upon failure, where failure is demonstrated by via overextension of the theory.

    …The reason for overextension rather than criticism as the operational preference being that it is economically inefficient (expensive) to pursue criticism rather than to extend a theory to its point of failure then criticize it. And as far as we know, this is how science functions in practice, and must work, because it is how all human endeavors must work. Because while a small number of scientists may seek the ‘truth’ (or whatever a platonist means by it), what scientists try to do is solve problems – ie: to manufacture recipes for useful cognition.

    … Popper’s advice was merely moral given that the scope of inquiry in all human fields had surpassed that of human scale, where tests are subjectively verifiable. (I think this is an important insight because it occurred in all fields.) Einstein for example, operationalized observations (relative simultaneity for example) over very great distances approaching the speed of light using Lorenz transformations. And as Bridgman demonstrated, the reason Einstein’s work was novel was because prior generations had NOT been operationalizing statements ,and as such, more than a generation and perhaps two were lost to failure of what should have been an obvious solution. (See the problem of length, which I tend to refer to often as the best example.) I addressed this in a previous post, and what popper did was give us good advice, and while he made an argument that appears logical, like most rational arguments, unsupported by data, it is not clear he was correct, and in fact, it appears that he was not. The question is not a rational but empirical one.

    … Popper unlike Misesian Pseudoscience, or Rothbardian Immoral Verbalisms, was engaged in a moral attempt both in politics and in science, and perhaps in science as a vehicle for politics, to prevent the pseudoscientific use of science – particularly by fascist and communists, to use the findings of science as a replacement for divine authority by which to command man. What popper did, particularly with his platonism, was to remove the ability for the findings of science to be used as justification for the removal of human choice. Popper, Mises, and Hayek were responsible for undermining pseudoscientific authoritarianism. Of the three popper is perhaps less articulate (possibly to obscure his objective), but certainly not wrong, so to speak. While mises’ appeal to authoritarianism (which is part and parcel of jewish culture) was entirely pseudoscientific, by claiming that economics was deductive rather than empirical, and justifying it under apriorism, instead of as I’ve stated, understanding that he was merely trying to apply operationalism to economic activity, which would merely demonstrate that Keynesian economics was immoral and deterministic, not unscientific.

    But Popper, Mises, Hayek, Bridgman and Brouwer, did not find a solution to restoring the western aristocratic conditions for public speech.

    They too were a lost in platonism a bit. Bridgman and Brouwer did understand that something was wrong, and were very close,b ut they could not make the moral argument. We have had a century now of attacks by verbal contrivance and we can demonstrate the destruction of our civilization by way of it. So the moral argument is no longer one of undemonstrated results. WE have the results. And we have a generation of men, myself included, trying to repair it.

    One must speak truthfully, because no other truth is knowable. Intellectual products that are brought to market must be warrantied just as are all other products that are brought to market, and the warranty that you can provide is operational definitions (recipes, experience), not theories (psychologism, projections). And if you are not willing to stand behind your product then you should not bring it to market. Because you have no right to subject others to harm.

    Intellectuals produce ideas (myself included), that is our product. We are paid in measly terms most of the time, for our product, but that is what we do. But it is no different from hot coffee or dangerous ladders, or defective gas tanks.

    And given that one particularly prolific group of people has created marxism, socialism, postmodernism, libertine-libertarianism, and neoconservatism, it is about time we stopped allowing them to ship lousy products into society.

    And rather than regulate them by government, the common law and universal standing will allow punishment of those who bring bad products to market.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-12-23 08:10:00 UTC