Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

YOU CAN’T PUT ANY STOCK IN THE WAR COMMENTARIAT

Too many talking heads now popularizing work and opinions by people with their heads in the daily data. Like everything, the trickle-down effect is a telephone game of increasing bias, and selling bias as searching for clicks.

It is very difficult to know what RU is up to.

It is unclear with UA is up to other than maintaining a war of Russian attrition. (Note that Putin is starving the mercenaries, because their leader became too public, competing for attention. And Ukraine has effectively killed most of them.)

It is very easy to understand that the USA is not ramping up production of consumables (rpg’s, manpads, missiles, and shells) and so in a war of attrition we can easily lose against a foe who will throw hundreds of thousands of bodies as bullet, shrapnel, and concussion magnets.

It’s clear that the Five Eyes (Anglosphere Intel) are very good at what they do, and know more than the RU do. But the absence of activity over the past six weeks is troubling. And the timidity of giving UA more advanced weapons given the rate at which they develop skill in them is amazing. UA isn’t working with 19-year-old recruits from the backwaters. The people they’re training are mature or middle age with experience on the front lines. They learn quickly and want to apply what they learn.

The only confidence I ever obtain is from Gen. Milley or one of the other top brass says something declarative. And from the bloggers who keep track of map activity on all sides.

It’s very easy to understand what Poland and the Baltics are doing: replacing germany and France as the core partner of the USA/UK in NATO.

It’s very easy to understand what Germany is up to (as little as possible).

It’s very easy to understand what France is up to: the fall of Russia puts France in charge of Europe – when by and large everyone else wants germany in charge.

The UK is right. The aristocracy is generally right. WHy? British moralism isn’t shallow Christian like american. It’s their moral high ground. A high ground we don’t have.

#Russia #RussiaUkraineWar