He had no intention of anything other than forcing the military to leave PMC Wagner alone, and pull Wagner from the fight, so that they can return to making money around the world – which they’re good at.
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 19:36:23 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673052536545083394
Reply addressees: @Callisto_ILUV @NoahRevoy @damianoram
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673049067532820481
Why Prigozhin Was “Exiled” To Belarus
It’s a pragmatic decision. Putin (a) preserves Wagner (b) separates warring factions (Wagner vs Ministry of Defense), (c) makes Lukashenko safer from internal revolt, (d) Reduces the need for RU military in Belarus, and (e) allows Putin to use Prigozhin to force the integration of belarus in to russia when needed, while at the same time, (f) providing a disincentive for UA to push north, while (g) tying up UA resources in the north, (h) reinforces Putin’s ability to blame failure on the corrupt military (which *IS* to blame).
This is how grownups think. What’s depressing is how much chatter is on the news and social media showing that THEY CAN’T THINK LIKE GROWNUPS.
I mean. Demonstrated evidence of incompetency worldwide.
Reply addressees: @efodix @damianoram
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 19:35:00 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673052189978132480
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673050213815144452
OCCAM’S RAZOR: GROWNUP ANALYSIS OF PRIGOZHIN EVENT
Possible theory on what went down.
by damianoram @damianoram
– Prigozin didn’t have any political ambitions.
– He just wanted out, because Backmut was a useless meat grinder.
– In Africa he had a much better business with… https://twitter.com/curtdoolittle/status/1672973405094572032
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 14:51:07 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672980746301046785
OCCAM’S RAZOR: GROWNUP ANALYSIS OF PRIGOZHIN EVENT
Possible theory on what went down.
by damianoram @damianoram
– Prigozin didn’t have any political ambitions.
– He just wanted out, because Backmut was a useless meat grinder.
– In Africa he had a much better business with much less risk.
– The Russian Ministry of Defence would not let them go and strike at them if they tried.
– The only way out for him was to get rid of Shoigu and make a show of strength.
So…
– He stockpiled ammunition pretending the MoD wasn’t sending any.
– Did the most outrageous thing possible clarifying that he wasn’t against Putin but against Shoigu (giving Putin an out in the negotiation)
And….
– FSB and others in power potentially stand to gain by weakening Putin but not by having Prigozin as a new leader. – FSB didn’t oppose him during the “coup” because they knew that what he wanted was just to negotiate amnesty and exhile for himself and his people.
– Some of business in Africa may be related to the same people who didn’t oppose him during the “coup”. This increases the odds that it may be in someone’s interest for him to get back to it. (This is speculation)
Possible next steps:
– The people who are ready to make a move on Putin are now waiting for the fallout from the “coup attempt” to see a real opening.
– They need to re-open to the west for business to resume.
– The narrative of the war being useless started by Prigozin will give them an excuse to retreat from Ukraine (this is me hoping)
– They are (hopefully) looking to talk to security services in the west so they can establish trust, clarify their objectives and have legitimacy
—
CD: This is the most parsimonious pragmatic explanation that satisfies the incentives of all parties to act as they did. In other words, Occam’s Razor doesn’t get much sharper than this.
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 14:51:06 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672980746057789441
This was my assessment as well.
There is too much want of drama among the media and the people. Too little understanding of russia’s culture of heroism. And too little understanding of gangster pragmatism.
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 14:21:56 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672973405094572032
Reply addressees: @damianoram
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672946830798200834
NOPE….
1. You’re confusing trust in government vs high trust society, especially a truth before face society.
2. Low-trust societies require authoritarian governments, and High-trust societies prevent authoritarian governments.
3. The West is under assault by the left (neoMarxists) who are systematically undermining Western institutions of the cultural production of responsibility that makes possible high trust, that in turn makes possible rule of law participatory government. Western culture isn’t Western any longer it’s neoMarxist.
4. The left are doing so to create an authoritarian government – but for what purpose? (below)
5. The World Economic Forum (Davos) is aware of IQ decline, democratic collapse, deglobalization, economic decline, and so they are organizing the governments of the world so they can “Bureaucratically Manage Decline”. (Yes really)
I’m an anti-conspiracy theory public intellectual but you just can’t make this nonsense up. It’s true. 🙁
Reply addressees: @RecorriendoHK @QSusushi @ONUKA_ @Reuters
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-25 00:17:56 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672761004285997057
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672751826066882561
What perpetuates racism is the lie that we don’t need different education systems and often different polities to suit the needs of different demographic distributions given the rather substantive differences in racial distribution – when people always and everywhere demonstrate…
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-24 19:55:47 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672695031784779777
Reply addressees: @coffeecatharine @FarajRashi93307 @_stilloriginal_
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672692834376495105
ANSWERS TO SIX ARC (HARD) QUESTIONS
(via: jordan peterson)
ARC Questions 1-6
1. Can we find a unifying story that will guide us as we make our way forward?
2. How do we facilitate the development of a responsible and educated citizenry?
3. What is the proper role for the family, the community, and the nation in creating the conditions for prosperity?
4. How do we govern our corporate, social and political organizations so that we promote free exchange and abundance while protecting ourselves against the ever-present danger of cronyism and corruption?
5. How do we provide the energy and other resources upon which all economies depend in a manner that is inexpensive, reliable, safe and efficient, including in the developing world?
6. How should we take the responsibility of environmental stewardship seriously?
My Answers
https://t.co/pFBxDlcVhn
Peterson’s Video
https://t.co/VEnDDzZmIe
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-24 19:06:35 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672682652464234498
LEARNING FROM THE RUSSIAN CASE STUDY
(revolutions)
It’s very difficult to envision this ‘mutiny’ succeeding, but we can still learn a few lessons if it doesn’t.
We have repeatedly organized more than 25,000 men, the same number as Prigozhin, and that’s less than the 11-15,000 by Isis during their rapid capture and raids.
Revolutions are very easy to start, and very difficult to stop.
In Anglo tradition, revolutions require changing the law – and the courts, the people, and Congress do the rest. We don’t need to chop off heads, because we operate by rule of law, not rule by man.
The USA is not any more complex than any other government in its vulnerability to large numbers of revolutionaries.
Because of our geography and fragility, we are more vulnerable to revolution than other countries.
To avoid all bloodshed, only 2M men are needed to issue demands for moral reforms for the benefit of the people.
Because action against those numbers is impossible without justifying the revolutionaries.
I’ve done a relatively peaceful revolution.
America is heading for an unpeaceful one.
Unless cooler heads organize a peaceful one.
So lessons are worth learning.
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-24 18:39:37 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672675862976528387
LEARNING FROM THE RUSSIAN CASE STUDY (revolutions)
It’s very difficult to envision this ‘mutiny’ succeeding, but we can still learn a few lessons if it doesn’t.
We have repeatedly organized more than 25,000 men, the same number as Prigozhin, and that’s less than the 11-15,000 by Isis during their rapid capture and raids.
Revolutions are very easy to start, and very difficult to stop.
In Anglo tradition, revolutions require changing the law – and the courts, the people, and Congress do the rest. We don’t need to chop off heads, because we operate by rule of law, not rule by man.
The USA is not any more complex than any other government in its vulnerability to large numbers of revolutionaries.
Because of our geography and fragility, we are more vulnerable to revolution than other countries.
To avoid all bloodshed, only 2M men are needed to issue demands for moral reforms for the benefit of the people.
Because action against those numbers is impossible without justifying the revolutionaries.
I’ve done a relatively peaceful revolution.
America is heading for an unpeaceful one.
Unless cooler heads organize a peaceful one.
So lessons are worth learning.
Source date (UTC): 2023-06-24 18:39:37 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672668386633842689