Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

  • Russia And Germany Instead Of France And Germany? One Can Only Hope

    Stratfor has released an article today that suggests that German and Russia have more to offer each other than does the rest of Europe. Russia has intelligent labor, and resources, but it has a terrible capital structure and little technology.  Germany has technology, a terrific capital structure, but needs resources and labor.  Better yet, the labor can stay where it is: in Russia, rather than immigrating into Germany and further burdening its infrastructure and creating additional civil unrest. France will have little chance but to follow germany into the relationship, because it is not powerful enough on its own to unify the Club-Med states (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (the Pigs). What I find most humorous about this pairing, especially given the pro-german position I’ve taken in the Anglo-German European civil war, is that despite being defeated by the Anglo coalition, Germany once again has proven that it is a more prosperous and hard-working and innovative culture than its local competitors.  It has risen from the ashes so to speak.   And left England in the distance. I can’t think of anything I find more attractive: a unified germany and russia.  After all, the south and west have contained Germany for two and a half millennia. The world wars were only the most recent instance of german containment. Now, this has broader implications for Byzantine civilization.  Germany and northern europe are protestant christian civilizations with a positive ethic.  Byzantine civilizations are nominally christian, but have a nihilistic ethic.    How will cooperation change either of these ethics?   How would europe change if the PIGS are left to their own devices? Stratfor has suggested in the past that Turkey is in the likely heir to islamic power, but not byzantine power.  A German-Russian alliance that built byzantine power would be superior at keeping the mandatory-ignorance of Islam at bay, and might resurrect Byzantine civilization, and restore Russia to a leadership position. This kind of talk would have been heresy during the cold war and the possibility of communism. But post-communism, in a world of universal capitalism,  it seems like a win for Germany, Russia, eastern Europe, the rest of Europe by consequence, and humanity by implication.

  • Krugman Watch: On The Right’s Level Of Agitation

    The right is very angry right now, even more angry than the early Clinton years. And they are only going to get more agitated. De -masculinizing the military was Clinton’s only real mistake, as the military fraternal order and its meme of group-persistence are conservative’s most agitating sentiment. Obama’s transfer of risk from the poor (unenfranchised risk creators) to small business owners and professionals (enfranchised risk takers), and his general attack in word and deed on the right’s social status and values, plus the sentiment that the ‘rules of the game’ (the constitution, which is the core value of The Classical Liberal wing of Conservatives) were violated to pass the healthcare bill over the will of the populace, have inflamed them. Furthermore, the right lives in a consciousness of the status-economy, which consists of accumulated sacrifices in order to achieve status, and status which increases the probability of opportunity, and opportunity which when combined with risk, create wealth and security. This status-economy is universal, permanent, and material, and vastly amplified in any heterogenous empire. (Conservatives don’t wear funny hats as identity symbols, everyone else wears Conservative hats in order to enter the conservative status-economy.) Just like taxes which are a cost, there is a maximum amount of wealth transfer that a group will tolerate. The political problem is no longer money. It has become a status problem in a heterogenous empire. Empires break because of such differences. (Empires break for two reasons: excess cultural heterogeneity and insufficient institutional calculability: religion and law are insufficiently marginal influences in heterogenous urban societies. No civilization has survived the transition from homogenous to heterogenous density, because it ceases to be in group interests to pay the opportunity cost of respecting institutions whose underlying causal pressure to conform to them diminishes with anonymity. And for your side, the left, it would help if one did not confuse preferences with truths. Because equality, as a value, is contra-logical to the status economy. There is no evidence that people are equal, nor that equality can persist for any period of time. There is a minimum interpersonal, and inter-class, status delta that is tolerable in any society, and the more diverse that society, the more exaggerated must be the delta. This is as much a law, as is supply and demand. And only silly people think otherwise. As for exemplary European models applied to the US, and perceived happiness thereof as a metric, the power-and-weakess discount must be applied to europeans, as demonstrated by the written record of migrants, almost all of which choose the USA model over the european simply because of decreased costs. The opinions europeans hold of their policies are not met by the opinion of european and american expatriates, who actually possess the information to make such a valuation. The popular opinion is nothing but the reversal of power and weakness postwar. Combined with the homogeneity of the germanic countries, this creates an opinion-bias that makes european opinion irrelevant to American policies. The problem for our nation, is that we are an empire that used to be 80% homogenous, becoming an empire whose cultures are increasingly at material odds. In particular the status-discount whites have been paying is reaching intolerable proportions. Why? Because there is a maximum cultural delta, not the least of which is driven by IQ variances. But primarily driven by the human preference for similar-looking and similar-acting people. That preferences is material because of the STATUS economy experienced by people who compete across racial and cultural boundaries. In other words, for the majority, there is a status advantage, and therefore an economic advantage to group identity. In other words – Cultures do not integrate when status deltas reach a cliff-effect. Instead, they hunker-down in tribes. The data is becoming quite clear that the american melting pot was a myth post-european integration. It is a myth here, and will be a myth here and everywhere. And when people do not integrate, they do not tolerate redistribution. It’s funding you’re opposition. This is the reality of human existence. As for the popularity of leftist sentiments versus conservative sentiments, the country is vastly center right. But our universities, are vastly left. Our business community is vastly right. One of these communities is an outgrowth of theology. The other operates using practical techniques. Conservatives never forget this. Liberals (the left kind) always choose to.

  • The Institutional Solution: A Solution To Current Socialist Sentiments And Incrementalism

    Mark, over on CARPE DIEM quotes Mises, who said:

    The champions of socialism call themselves progressives, but they recommend a system which is characterized by rigid observance of routine and by a resistance to every kind of improvement. They call themselves liberals, but they are intent upon abolishing liberty. They call themselves democrats, but they yearn for dictatorship. They call themselves revolutionaries, but they want to make the government omnipotent. They promise the blessings of the Garden of Eden, but they plan to transform the world into a gigantic post office. Every man but a subordinate clerk in a bureau. What an alluring utopia! What a noble cause to fight!

    [callout title=’Conservatism’] “…. liberals are too conservative to embrace capitalism.”[/callout]

    And to which he recieves a number of interesting comments, but one that deserves an answer:

    “Aren’t some rules necessary? Aren’t some goals the proper purpose of government?”

    Of course, rules of the market are necessary. The purpose of government is to administer markets. Without markets there is nothing to defend, so defense is a subset of market activity. Without markets there is nothing to redistribute, so redistribution is a subset of market activity. Without contracts and property there are not disputes to resolve so the judiciary is a subset of market activity. Without types of property to register, to codify, and to determine the properties of, there is no reason to legislate. Government, in the sense that we have a military force, we make and adjudicate laws, and redistribute some income, is unnecessary without a market. In fact, there is only one form of government: a government that administers a market. All abuses of government are abuses of the definitions of property for the purpose of reverse redistribution from the common to the authority by use of force. Government itself is a MARKET ACTIVITY. Otherwise it is just organized theft or fraud. In this sense, I am not sure that redistribution is a government activity, or if it should be separated from market governance. This is, actually, the underlying problem with our form of government: it is based on the city-state history of europe, and the simplicity of those states. Parliaments took over from kings. Multi-houses took over to balance power. But we did not develop houses for separate purposes. Instead, they all must agree on solutions that can be universally proposed, rather than each devoted to proposals limited to their scope of knowledge and influence. In three different pieces today I’ve tried to convey the idea that the market and property in themselves are institutions that were created by ‘regulation’. This does not mean that we have full power over the market, it means that the market is a deliberate institution, not an invisible hand, that has been paid for. And by following the chain of causation we can both understand it’s costs, and understand it’s limits, and in understanding it’s limits, understand how and when to increase regulation of the market: we can increase it along with the abstractions that are traded in it. Because all forms of property are defined by different ‘properties’. Life, real property (land), Improvements (immovable property), several property (movable property), opportunities, commitments, abstractions (patents and trademarks), and cooperative tools (morals and ethics), and to some degree metaphysical abstractions such as funding the implied costs hidden in our social conventions. If we can ACT on it, then it is a function of trade, exchange, cost and cooperation. Property is just a subset of market activities that require physical resources. However, the majority of trade is made in lower cost people’s actions and people’s forgone opportunity to act.

    [callout title=’Foregone Opportunities Are Costs’] “… civilization’s institutions are built almost entirely out of the cost of forgone opportunity.”[/callout]

    In fact, civilization’s institutions are built almost entirely out of the cost of forgone opportunity. The minority of our costs go to institutions like buildings and monuments and roads and bridges. The majority of social costs go to forgone opportunity, the respect for property, ad the maintenance and definition of different kinds of property, and the institutions we use to register and account for property of all kinds, from Cars, and Houses to Marriages and Trademarks. If you grasp this concept of the forgone opportunity economy, libertarianism as it is currently constructed by the Jewish arm of the movement (Rothbard and Friedman) fails for ethical, economic, and rational reasons, while the Christian arm of the movement (classical liberals and Hayekians) fail because of their failure to articulate their movement in something other than historical analogy and post-religoius moralism. Despite being right (in both senses of the term) they cannot articulate why they are so. And the problem is worse for conservatives who rely on unarticulated habits so old they have been reduced to sentiments and invective. I don’t make those errors. I’m trying to give conservatives a language for competing with socialists, who have been developing a form of articulated argument for a century and a half, despite achieving massive murder and destruction. But back to the current state of affairs: I think socialists are just moving gradually, at the extremes via incrementalism. they are able to make these incremental violations by taking advantage of the limited ability of human memories to sense change in time, and they can do so because we have not institutionalized the government such that we can isolate market legislation from redistributive legislation. This is effectively the corruptive influence on our government. I refer to this form of corruption as ‘pooling’. That is, institutions cannot have mixed purposes without MIXING those purposes. The socialist movement has abandoned it’s pursuit of control over the means of production as technique for achieving redistribution and focuses instead on direct partial redistribution wherever they can find an opportunity. But they have not abandoned Ponzi schemes that confuse insurance, which is a probabilistic cost, with redistribution, which is a certain cost. Social security was a probabilistic insurance scheme when few people lived to collect it. But it’s a certain cost today. Nor have they abandoned totalitarian administration of scarcities like health care and retirement income, nor addressed that the scarcity of these services (not commodities, but services which require people, which cannot be solved by increases in production, only that increases in production in one commodity industry can drive down the quality of people in another service industry. I do not think that the influence of, or driving force of the left’s ambition of social status equality versus freedom from poverty is adequately discussed in the literature. Since tomorrows luxuries become today’s commodities, poverty is constantly redefined, and status redefined, and redeveloped on a constant basis. Status is their objective, not redistribution alone. Nor do we sufficiently discuss the fact that people do NOT integrate, do not acculturate but hunker down in their own communities. And where they do integrate, it’s a status ambition by the middle classes, and not integration so much as cooperation. In fact, the general shift has been away from ‘becoming an american’ to living in the ‘american empire’ under the ‘american code of laws’, while retaining one’s cultural identity. This is, in many ways, a strategy for attainment of social status. Nor do we discuss the EFFORT required of those to whom we redistribute money on the maintenance of their property and our institutions – and their lack of effort expenditure even when they are property holders. Since American exceptionalism is likely to have passed it’s prime – the world has adopted western political, economic, and production technologies in what will (for IQ, geographic, and cultural reasons) likely be a permanent global labor class, which will put permanent economic pressure on our middle and lower classes – we will not be able to assume a world of infinite inter-temporal redistribution based on the assumption of growth any longer. If we can reinstitute mandatory savings instead of inter-temporal redistribution, and temporal redistribution into savings rather than consumption, we can probably correct most of the errors that socialists have burdened us with, and put the “saving-sensitiblty” back into the cultural vernacular. Redistributing earnings into savings is a form of reallocation that is both logical and moral in a society that employs fiat money borrowed against the future efforts of the working classes. But monetary redistribution is one thing. Risk redistribution is another. Inter-temporal monetary and risk redistribution are something else altogether because they are incalculable. (Taleb/Mandelbrot/Hakey/Mises). Conservatives and libertarians on the other hand, must understand that the market itself (not trade, but the market) as well as the institutions of property and contract and objective truth, are all forms of regulation.

    [callout title=The Market Is A Form Of Regulation]Conservatives and libertarians on the other hand, must understand that the market itself (not trade, but the market) as well as the institutions of property and contract and objective truth, are all forms of regulation.[/callout]

    Markets as we understand them are distortions of human behavior. Even the competitive benefits of the market are obtained by the efforts of people to circumvent the market converted to good use. Western civilization differs from other civilizations by it’s consistent application of the gladiatorial rules to market exchanges – they are presumed to be fair. And by fair we mean, that one can only win if the other wins as well. There are limits to the fairness of market activity: if one attempts to circumvent the market’s purpose for existence (prosperity) and the reason markets were created (to take advantage of trade routes conquests) and whom they were created by (the fraternal order of soldiers, which is our cultural source of individual responsibility), then the activity is not a market activity and instead is either Fraud or Theft. Not morally, but materially. Because the market is PAID for via foregone opportunities to commit fraud or theft. These are material costs. So there is no such thing as a ‘free market’. We pay to create it by foregone opportunity. It exists because we register these costs of foregone opportunity as rules of the market. And a market can only exists where trade routes are paid for and sanctioned by a division of labor’s specialists at holding land and trade routes: the risk taking soldiers. George Soros and Goldman Sachs circumvented the market, and privatized wins while socializing losses. This is not a market activity. France nationalized the Rothschild’s, and it’s a miracle that England did not nationalize Soros’ money because it privatized wins and socialized losses. The purpose of markets is not to replace the military class with the banking class. It’s to make the banking class, the military class, the merchant class, the clerical class, the craftsman class and the laboring class all benefit by increased division of labor and knowledge that leads to increasing production (Yield per man hour) and decreasing prices. Socialists do not want to ENTER the market because they are afraid to lose – they are stuck in a world of trade rather than markets. This is their fundamental problem. The market is a Circus: a Gladitorium. It is a boxing ring. It is gambling. It is risk. The rewards of the market come from RISK – not TRADE but RISK. It is this market speculation that constantly leads to wins for the spectators. The difference between conservatives and liberals, between conservatives and socialists, is in the difference between the Market, risk and opportunity economy, and the Trade and craftsman economy – progressives are regressive Luddites just as was Marx: seeking to return to the trade economy rather than the market economy. To some degree liberals are the equivalent of color blind. They do not see that the benefits that they live upon are the result of material risk taking. Conservatives do. And it is convenient for them not to see it Liberals like Krugman are simply buried under silly cultural mythos that they mask as economic doctrine – confusing preference and cultural bias with market truth. Krugman’s only objective is to undermine the western white military hierarchy and replace it with the debt slavery of politicized bankers. Libertarians (Rothbardians) are simply buried under the silly cultural mythos that they mask as economic doctrine – confusing the practicality of a RELIGION that favors only one minority class, without understanding the opportunity and forgone opportunity costs, as well as material defense coasts to both capture land, maintain trade routes, and establish and police the rules of the market. LIbertarians (Hayekians) have not produced a synthetic strategy for implementing calculative (rational and calculable) institutions that can replace the political institution of legislative debate (non-rational and incalculable). Although they are probably the most sensible group in the economic sphere. This is a solvable problem some of us are working on diligently. Libertarians (Friedman Monetarists) have been proven wrong by current events, as was Keynes, for exactly the reasons Hayek demonstrated. They are too close the the science to see it’s costs – and too happy to have others pay for the tragic cost of their experiments.

    [callout title=It’s A Problem Of Institutions]The anarcho capitalist libertarians have developed this philosophical structure but it emphasizes free trade and personal property as a means of achieving a class-based exit from the influence of political institutions rather than the wholesale reformation of those institutions.[/callout]

    As Godel demonstrated and as Taleb says, there are a class of problems impervious to statistical analysis. Numbers and models are an extension of our senses. They are not descriptions of future courses of events. But rationality goes out the window under universal egalitarian democracy rather than meritocratic republicanism: as others have said here, progressives have engineered a dependent class, the inverse of the historical politically dependent classes, and that dependent class is accumulating political power slowly but constantly. And what they do not achieve by dependence they achieve by immigration. So, I see no reason to celebrate until we develop a Post- Conservative, Post-Classical Liberal, Post-Libertarian, Post-AnarchoCapitalist solution. That solution must achieve calculative temporal redistribution, savings rather than intertemporal ponzi schemes, and increase the complexity of government (market making) such that we have institutions that cannot pool their interests in order to change the government’s job from market making, to market exploiting. This is the great myth of left liberalism and right libertarianism: that the market simply ‘exists’ because of an invisible hand. Trade exists. A market of risk tolerance that allows the concentration of capital does not exist without the force of violence to prevent violence, and to compensate and punish for fraud. And only silly libertarians think so.

    [callout title=Fixing Liberarianism] For the anarcho capitalists to correct their system, requires they integrate the forgone opportunity economy into their articulation of the explicit economy.[/callout]

    The anarcho capitalist libertarians have developed this philosophical structure, but emphasize free trade (and personal property as a means of achieving a class based exit from the influence of political institutions) rather than the wholesale reformation of those institutions so that they do not have to escape those institutions. For the anarcho capitalists to correct their system, requires they integrate the forgone opportunity economy into their articulation of the explicit economy. And in doing so this would force them to realize that their principle of non-violence is simply a silly religious dictum, and a false starting point for any theory of market activity to give their ‘class’ power in society. Rather than understanding that their class must share power in society in order to create the very markets that they depend upon. My position is that we cannot fix those institutions without crisis or violence. But perhaps, the threat of violence can achieve the crisis which will allow the reformation of the institutions for the protection of all. This strategy would put the republic back into place, while realizing that a republic of farmers is a republic of equals, and a republic of an advanced industrialized society competing in globalized economy requires that we have a more complex political system than the farmer-system we inherited from the classical liberals who were our founders.

    [callout title=The Virtue Of Violence]My position is that we cannot fix those institutions without crisis or violence. But perhaps, the threat of violence will encourage the crisis which will in turn allow the reformation of the institutions for the benefit of all.[/callout]

    All we can know for certain is that the socialist method is, and always will be, a failure, given any significant period of time, and the calculative libertarian method will always be a success given any significant period of time.

  • The Keynesian Conversion Of The Responsibility Of The State

    Think of how much easier the job of government is, when instead of seeking competitive increases in production, it seeks redistribution and reduced unemployment. The first requires that you have some comprehension of your economy. The second requires that you have little to none.

    [callout title=The Net Effect Of Keynes]The net effect of the Keynesian revolution was to change the purpose of the government from one of concentrating capital such that the population would derive benefits from increases in competitiveness and production, to one of consumerism, whereby the citizenry is discouraged from saving in order to create consumer velocity.[/callout]

    The net effect of the Keynesian revolution was to change the purpose of the government from one of concentrating capital such that the population would derive benefits from increases in competitiveness and production, to one of consumerism, whereby the citizenry is discouraged from saving in order to create consumer velocity. We have accomplished that objective. We have converted to the consumer society and shipped the productivity of our lower classes offshore, and made the upper classes dependent upon the lower classes consumption. We have destroyed the cultural habit of saving. And with it, the culture of individual responsibility. Our whole country lives under the myth of prosperity without applying a discount to the increased risk we are exposed to by our hubris. The responsibility of the state is capitalization which reduces risk. Not consumption which increases it.

    [callout title=Callout Title]Think of how much easier the job of government is, when instead of seeking competitive increases in production, it seeks redistribution and reduced unemployment. The first requires that you have some comprehension of your economy. The second requires that you have little to none.[/callout]

    I am not against redistribution or the insurance-state. I am against the destructive state. And our state has become destructive. It has become destructive because it has become consumptive. And it justifies that consumption by leaving competitive increases to the private sector, despite the market’s incapacity for extraordinary investments. We need 200 nuclear power plants. We need a new power grid. We need to convert to electric cars. We need to rebuild the voting system and reform the houses of government. We need to increase research funding for hard sciences and decrease it for humanities and social so called sciences. We need to change the structure of the tax code. We need to change accounting procedures that allow causal laundering of money. We need to restructure corporate law so that we can de-corporialize the corporation so that it must serve customers or fail. We need to reform the banking industry. We need to privatize the administration of social insurance. We need to do a hundred other things that will create institutional improvements for the population to compete against other nations who have cheaper labor costs. Yet we consistently fall under the Keynesian spell, and distract ourselves from the meaningful work of building a competitive society.

  • The Virtue Of Violence

    The Virtue Of Violence: “We do not forego violence in exchange for democracy, we forgo violence in exchange for creating and accessing the market. Democracy is simply a means of hiring and firing the administrators of our markets. We do not exist to serve democracy. Democracy exists to serve the market. And should it cease to do so, it ceases the only reason for its legitimacy or use, and is simply a means of whereby the masses destroy the accumulated prosperity of the market in the greatest act of theft and ruin that a humans can perpetuate. If we are no longer cooperating in order to maintain our market. Then we no longer need to cooperate to maintain our government. And as such, we no longer need to restrain our violence, so that we may recreate a market and a means of administrating it. The principles of non violence and non aggression are a means of stealing from us whenever the market is circumvented by those we hire to administrate it. It is an act of deception and fraud. It is an infinite discount on our contribution of forgone opportunity for the purpose of creating the market. That is the true meaning of the word ‘freedom’: to spend the currency of our violence in creation of the market, our respect for property such that we may cooperate in a division of labor, our time and efforts in the creation of products and services to participate in the market, and our rewards for having done all of the above. Violence is the source of the market, and the market the source of our prosperity, cooperation, and happiness. Violence and it’s use in creating and maintaining the market, is man’s greatest achievement. Violence is a virtue because it is the amount of violence possessed by men, and their creativity in and capacity for using it, and the use of it to create the market, that is the prerequisite for prosperity, and division of labor.” And there is no other argument for the source of the market, our actions in maintaining it, other than we are slaves or children instead of free men, capable of any creative or destructive act we choose. And I will not surrender my violence, and pay the cost of forgone opportunity to create a market from which I, my family, my friends, my tribe, my culture, may prosper, so that someone may enslave me.” – Curt Doolittle Curt Doolittle’s writes on libertarian economics and conservative politics at Capitalism v3.0, and hosts the Libertarian And Conservative Roundtable news feed – a set of syndicated articles opinions and news in the english language from across the web. (From Our Facebook Page)

  • Violence Is A Beautiful Word

    Violence is a beautiful word. But its beauty is absent from our discourse. I’m going to put violence into libertarianism. I’m going to put violence back into politics and economics. Violence, violence, violence, violence violence.   There. I said it again.  Get used to it. I’m going to fix our civilization and its political system by revealing the elephant in the room. I’m going to talk about violence as a virtue.  Something to be cherished, and loved, and appreciated. Because the source of our prosperity is in our violence. Markets, Freedom, Property, the product of the organized use of violence. And no use of violence has ever been so peaceful, so fruitful or so enjoyable.

    Roman Warriors

  • Conservatives Can’t Remake Society Either.

    Leftists wish to remake society. They want to return us to the “homogenous tribal redistributive society” (HTRS) on a large scale. They will fail. They have failed. They cannot make a homogenous redistributive and tribal society from a multicultural empire of vastly unequal groups of people who who act as competing groups of people. ( See Putnam’s article on the impact of diversity ) The only result of any government over this diverse set of people will be a totalitarian one. While in our fantasies, we believe that we could have immigrated only a certain class of people, or a certain race of people, or both, but the continent is too large, and the chance to profit by importing cheaper labor in each generation diluted the chance to become a large, powerful and single-class-single-race society. The import of the vast numbers of Europeans who then in turn used the new land and ready capital to produce cheaper goods to ship back to europe at a discount was not an insignificant cause of the collapse of european civilization and the resulting european civil war we call the world wars. Status is epistemologically necessary social construct — we couldn’t live without it — and Status also controls access to mates, networks, and opportunity. Since a large and diverse population would doom most people in the population to a status discount in exchange for economic solidarity, they fracture into factions where status within the factional group gives them access to mates within their group, opportunities within their group, and influence in their group. In other words, this factionalization creates an increase in the opportunities for any individual to obtain status. (Islam and Buddhism solve this problem by making status spiritual rather than material. This is the ;primary attractiveness to these religions. They create mental rather than material status. Jews work the inverse methodology: the achieve status by group persistence. Whites are torn, and that is their problem. ) Each little faction in the world seems to desire that they make their whole society homogenous, equal and tribal. OUr tribal instincts, and instincts they are, compete with our status instincts to form an equilibrium between the comfort necessary to maintain a group, and the innovation needed to strengthen the group. We call these the masculine and feminine, but that is to apply gender bias to a problem where gender is meaningless. The only societies who achieve the comfort of tribal equality do so by embracing that feminine tribal homogenous egalitarian principle at large, and oppressing attempts at disruptive status attainment, is the poor, ignorant, and despotic monotheistic societies. And in doing so they embrace the virtueless cycle of degenerative decline. So no, liberals cannot remake society. And if they succeeded we would simply decline in prosperity. They would not make the utopia that they dreamed of. Or rather they might make the feeling of coming utopia, but actually cause decline. Whereas conservatism forces us to face material reality and in doing so we create a utopia we had not planned to. But conservatives cannot remake society either. We never could. Conservatives live by the fantasy that they can create a society where they can legitimately rule, without violence, by merit alone, and that merit the act of denying the accumulation of power, by the force of rules of consent, rather than the promise of violence if those rules are broken. In other words, conservatives who are not willing to use violence to maintain the rules are attempting to get others to pay the costs of maintaining those rules. In more economic terms, conservatives are as unwilling to pay the costs of preventing the accumulation of political power, as liberals are unwilling to pay the costs of enforcing the extraordinary discipline needed to control breeding rates, to work and save, and to build a meritocratic society. So, in this light, conservatives are either foolishly believing the documents of their religion of the American Founding Documents If someone breaks the rules you must resort to violence. The purpose of the rules is to avert violence. The threat of breaking the rules is that we will return to our use of violence. On a regular basis we allow liberals break the rules. Conservatives do not use violence against the state because it would be violence against their church. Yet liberals use violence and protest and insurgency and capital disruption and undermine the constitution, undermine the courts, by-pass the legislature. And conservatives sit by, wondering why their god does not enforce the scripture of the founding documents. Conservatives believe that we can aspire to make everyone noble – a member of the fraternal order of soldiers of equal suffrage. They believe that we can live according to the founding principles of the american republic, rather than those documents only survived seventy years, until the civil war. Afterward it became a useful myth by which the attainment of power could be justified by popular consent. The American founding civilization died with the civil war. Since 1914 we have taken over the role of the british empire. Our ‘god’ died with that war. For a brief period in human history, we created the illusion that a majority of people could join the civic republican tradition. Any man who could fight and could own a bit of land, could call himself noble. Because of our vast division of knowledge and labor, which has freed us from physical labor, and which rewards merit, status, and prosperity to the result of genetic gifts, our citizenry is no longer equal enough to form a large class of lesser nobility and soldiery, that is the social construct necessary for political unity, and cultural and territorial expansion, and the maintenance of an empire. There is no equality of man. There never was. There never shall be. We are unequal. We are unequal in physical ability and intellectual ability. (( Human capital is an asset that is worth investing in: when educated in large numbers, african americans only improved in IQ slightly, they did improve. )) We cannot have a government of equals unless that society is extraordinarily small and homogenous. The republican form of government was always a minority form of government. It was simply a meritocratic minority form of government, that desired a constant expansion of and rotation of the elites in order to keep the homogenous society competitive and the elites prosperous. To attempt to make a homogenous tribal redistributive society out of an empire of heterogeneous is simply an impossible act. THe question then, is do we fragment the empire so that each fragment may have a homogenous tribal redistributive society, or do we rule the empire in self-defense, to protect ourselves from it? Any group that wishes to maintain power must in the end do so by its willingness to use violence. Any group of meritocratic individuals must maintain power or become the subject of extortion by less meritocratic groups : usually the priestly class or their modern version the public intellectual class. THis is another instance of the ancient battle between those who coerce by words and those who coerce by force, and those who coerce by trade. Conservatives are, by and large, the remnants of lesser nobility. They practice military epistemology. (( Military epistemology is the most accurate epistemology because the outcome of taking risks is very high. Nassim Taleb discusses this topic in The Black Swan. )) The questions we must answer are : 1) Whether we will use violence to maintain the meritocratic society, or become enslaved by the Bonapartist (( Bonapartism: democratically elected totalitarians )) ambitions of the politically active minority. (Contemporary Russia is a Bonapartist state.) 2) Whether we will break the nation into regions which may choose different approaches to government and allow people to vote with their feet, or whether we will stay an empire and attempt to force people into the Civic Republican Model. (( Immigrant urban areas will choose Bonapartism, the south, and middle of the country will choose meritocracy, and the west coast democratic egalitarianism – at least as long as the center of world trade remains the pacific rim. ))

  • Conservatives Cannot Articulate Their Promise, And A Warning Is Not Enough

    The conservative movement lacks skill in articulating it’s position. It does so because it has shifted from the intellectual debate of the 50’s and 60’s to the emotional debate of the post 60’s era. It has, unlike the libertarian movement, failed to provide a vehicle for educating conservatives with POSITIVE statements rather than negative castigations. Conservatives have largely failed to develop a language and ‘scripture’ because they do not have a solution other than to return to the nineteenth century classical liberal model. That model will never rise again. It only occurred because government was very weak, and the individual entrepreneurial need to expand and populate the continent required both private ambition and private capital. It required the conversion of resources into taxable resources, which would empower the government. Conversion requires business people the way conquest requires soldiers. And therefore commercial society was in control during that period. Our current problem is not to convert land into taxable assets. It’s to maintain the international system, and our ability to financially manage the international system. We have been paying for it by trade advantage for some period of time, and then selling dollars for the past forty years. Liberals do not want us to maintain that system but they want the rewards that come from it to be redistributed. Conservatives object to this position. Neither really understands that there is no american exceptionalism except american military exceptionalism. Our future problem is that in redistributing the wealth of that military network of trade and banking we have directed too much of the profit to bankers and not enough to the citizenry. Conservatives do not like this privatization of wealth any more than liberals do. But most importantly conservatives do not like being castigated and treated as Being conservative simply means taking a gradual approach to social change and particularly with respect to the financial, family and military traditions. It means being skeptical that our visions of the future will come true, and looking at the world as what people ACTUALLY DO not what we WISH they would do. We as a nation are notorious for predicting an optimistic future that cannot or has not occurred. The dialog around our prosperity is often inaccurate and self-congratualtory rather than factual. We have transformed our culture of evangelical christianity into one of evangelical democratic secular humanism. Conservatives are skeptics. They may speak in antiquated language, because that is their language. They may fail to articulate their position effectively because of that language, but they ACT conservatively, think conservatively, and treat the world conservatively. This is why conservatives are, in general, more prosperous – and frankly, happy. And the sacrifices that they make in order to be prosperous are material to them. They remember them. And therefore they resent those sacrifices being ‘spent’ by others who do not make the same sacrifices. Monetarists and capitalists are not conservatives. They may hide under conservatism. But they are not conservatives. The conservative class is a military, middle and craftsman class and it always has been and always will be. It is the ‘residue’ of the european fraternal order of soldiers at the bottom, and at the top, it’s a ‘residue’ of the middle class movement that revised and adopted civic republicanism during the enlightenment as a way of transferring power from the kings and church to the middle class. it is an alliance of the military and middle class. Liberalism (socialism, communism) is a ‘residue’ of a union of the priestly cast and the peasantry. Academia is simply an outgrowth of the church. The peasantry has always allied with the church, and the church has always had power because of it’s support by the peasantry. And that said, we do not have a separation of church and state. Our state religion is now democratic secular humanism. We are now a state-run-religion using the myth of division of church and state to oppress (or reform) religions so that we can have a state sponsored church. That’s it. That’s the articulated conservative position. The republican party collects conservative coalitions. The republican party is not a conservative party. conservatives join the republicans because they have no choice. They see the party as corrupt. People are complex and only join parties because of limited choice mandated by our ‘winner takes all’ form of government, which fosters class warfare. In fact, all political decisions exist on a spectrum or bell curve. There are a myriad of political decisions to be made. There are a myriad of people with different abilities to understand each political opinion. Each person is interested in a myriad of decisions. Parties are collections of people with opinions. Very skilled people tend to be highly unsatisfied with party choices. Very unskilled people tend to simply support their party of nearest interest. Parties therefore pick platforms that make enough people happy that they can get into power. arguing that conservatives want to keep things asa they are, is a silly argument. The objection is simply illogical. The question instead, is whether liberals propose a solution that conservatives can live with, and wether conservatives can propose a solution that liberals can live with. If we had listened to the liberals in the last century we would have ended up like either Russia or China. If we had listened to conservatives we would not have had our progressive social changes. It’s the competition of ideas that gives us the choice as a body politic.

  • The State’s Moral Hazard, The States Immoral Mandate, and The Solution To Both

    Rafe Champion on The Austrian/Keynesian Marriage from The Coordination Problem.

    …the problem of regime uncertainty which the Keynesians address by saying you will get all the certainty you need from our helpful interventions. But we have long ago reached the point where most of the interventions are the problem, not the solution. Uncertainty is a fact of life and maybe the role of good policy is to provide political and legal stability – not certainty but a reasonably stable institional framework where people can plan for the future with some expectation that they will not be shafted by the next political or administrative decision. If the institional framework is badly broken it need to be fixed but as Roger likes to remind us, that can only be done by piecemeal, experimental steps to handle unintended consequences.

    (Note “Regime Uncertainty” is a term meaning “uncertainty created by fear of government intervention”.) Pietro Follows

    #1: monetary policy is a cost-socializing technology which reduces the costs and risks of investment, causes bubbles and pushes for a type of overconsumption called “equity extraction”: consumption out of unreal wealth, i.e., capital consumption (Machlup described the same process). #2: moral hazard makes irresponsibility and recklessness privately rational, and the bubble economy is the result. This is the transmission mechanism in its most abstract form: cost socialization begets coordination problems in terms of bad incentives and false information. #3: at the certain moment either (3a) the monetary drug is no longer available or insufficient, maybe because of inflationary fears (exogenous credit crunch), (3b) the financial structure is no longer capable of transmitting monetary stimuli because it is broke (endogenous credit crunch, which, as the famous rapper Freddie H sang “That credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap, just a broke banking system”), or (3c) the economic structure is no longer capable of sustaining overconsumption (real resource crunch, whose result is normally a scarcity of circulating capital, like raw materials, that in fact have skyrocketed the first 12 months of the recession, and are rising now that someone ventures to talk of a recovery). In ABCT there is (3a) (the Fed takes away the punch bowl) and (3c) (the economy collapses because of capital structure problems), but there is no explicit analysis of (3b), i.e., systemic risk. I think that a breakdown of the financial system due to an unsustainable financial structure, such as excessive leverage, monetary multipliers, reliance on foreign credit, reliance on liquidity, maturity mismatch (30y mortgages vs 3m commercial paper!) is a more apt description of the recent crisis than problems in the capital structure. … An unsustainable financial structure is not an aggregate demand problem: it’s the legacy of a past moral hazard problem which causes a dearth of capital and a crisis. There is no path to a new equilibrium which does not pass through a credit crunch, the repayment of debts, massive deleveraging, exposure to maturity mismatch, and thus a reduction in investment levels.

    The question then, becomes one of quantity. How do we know how much social insurance and risk reduction is maximal? The moral hazard then exceeds risk taking on the part of individuals, and in turn becomes risk-mandating, when all participants in the bubble economy must not only forgo opportunity for gain, but instead, will be driven out of business if they fail to participate in the risk. This is what happened to bankers who need to keep clients, and employees, buliders who need to keep banking relationships, and subcontractors, business owners who see competitors using low priced capital to compete rather than superior products, services and prices, and the general public who fears missing an opportunity for gain, and losing both status material opportunity. That is the definition of a bubble: the point at which social-insured capital is being consumed as a defense against opportunity loss, rather than as an offense for the purpose of increasing production, increasing choice, and reducing prices. The problem for economists and policy makers is either knowing when this inflection point happens. Or knowing when it must occur. This knowledge cannot be achieved by monetary policy – it is a WEAK LEVER for managing an economy. That weakness is well known, and well understood. Our desired ends can only be achieved by LENDING, not monetary policy. The difference is the knowledge one has of MONEY IN THE AGGREGATE , which is zero, and the knowledge one has of his LOANS, which by is greater than zero. While it may not approach ONE, it is far greater than zero. Instead, we print money at public expense and give the proceeds (interest) to the people who do the WORK of the state: large capital firms, and they determine it’s use. The state should make loans to private industry and the state should collect the interest as earnings by the citizens for the purposes of redistribution. The government needs to become a bank that makes loans into an economy for the purposes of increasing production, competitiveness and therefore employment, not a re-distributor in the economy for the purposes of increasing consumption and achieving full employment by MANDATING the LOSS of competitive production. Fundamentally, we must transform elements of the physical world for human consumption. Fundamentally, money is a store of human effort. Borrowed money, or printed money, is a borrowing against future human effort. And future effort is lower if we invested in production increases. This is sensible borrowing. And future effort is higher if we increase consumption by borrowing against the future, but do not increase production by the act of borrowing. That is NOT sensible borrowing, it is simply self deception and over consumption. Property is an institutional tool for divinding up the labor of human interacdtion with the physical world into digestible and managable pieces by our limited and somewhat frail human minds. Loans are a type of property. They help us break up the world into estimable bits and pieces. Property solves a KNOWLEDGE PROBLEM. Property makes things CALCULABLE. Money is a means of making PROPERTY commensurable. (Money is a unit of measure, a method of account) But money is a PROXY for property. You cannot measure money itself in a meaningful way. YOu can only measure the objects that it represents. By putting unmeasured, chaotic money, into an economy, you have no control over whether that money goes to consumption (negative redistribution) or production (positive redistribution). The confusion over the nature and purpose of government’s monetary dictatorship is a KNOWLEDGE PROBLEM. Loans are a way of atomizing borrowing against the future so that the results are knowable, or at least estimable and calculable. Instead of investing in nuclear power plants, a new power grid, and perhaps electric vehicles, or new roads, all of which would produce vast wealth, we invested in speculations and gambling on the tech boom, then in houses, then in commercial real estate, all without increasing production (houses are consumption not production because external groups cannot compete to produce them) or decreasing prices (we increased prices). Without increased production we cannot increase redistribution. The goal of policy should be productivity increases, not employment. We can have our cake and eat it too. But we have to get away from the myth of democratic and socialist government, and the tools of law and monetary policy. And instead we need to move most of government into the banking sector, and treat our government as the bank that we wish it to be, using the technology of bankers and insurance companies, not the technology of ancient tyrants, who were, to the letter, to a man, tyrants because they used law and tax, because that is the only technology available to them We do not need laws and taxes. We need loans, credit and interest. There is only one law, and that is property. We can have our redistribution and we can measure it. We just need to deprive our government of the ability to issue laws and levy taxes, and print irresponsible money, and instead, constrain it to the use of money EARNED by investment on behalf of the citizenry in productive increases. All of which would be calculable. All of which would enable and encourage freedom. And all of which would help social classes work together rather than at odds. What I cannot understand is why so few people have come to this conclusion in human history. Why the great economists were so enamored of the state and the republican tradition, why some others so enamored of individual rebellion against the state that they failed to see it. Why a few people during the Great Depression managed to figure it out, but failed to compete against the socialists. We need to replace our system of government so that it embraces the use of fiat money for the purposes of insurance, governance, social order, and redistribution. We live in the credit society, not the law society. Now we need a government of the credit society.

  • Violence Is The Source Of Freedom

    Prior to an important meeting of prominent advocates of freedom, Mises stated roughly, that:

    1) Laissez-faire means ‘let the consumer decide’, it does not mean chaos prevails.

    I translate this more clearly and accurately as ‘a responsible parent forces her child to make decisions’ so that inter-temporal decision making becomes one of the child’s most adept skills. The civic republican tradition states that if a man is successful in life his duty is to help parent, ie: manage and govern, the society, thus spreading his wisdom to others in the community. This is quite contrary to the democratic religion of secular humanism that states that all men have equal merit in political actions.

    2) Hayek’s plan relies upon the support of that segment of the population that is comfortable as they are, but not willing to muster the political effort to preserve the freedom that gives them that comfort.

    I state this fact more simply: ‘Freedom is, has been, and will be, the desire of the creative minority.’

    Civilizations are ruled by minorities willing to use violence or fraud to maintain their positions. Since fraud is expressly what the creative minority seeks to avoid, because trade without recourse to violence requires refraining from fraud, the creative minority can retain it’s freedom only by force, or be constrained by the force or fraud of others.

    It is because violence is both meritocratic and epistemologically fruitful when combined with the need to enfranchise sufficient numbers of the minority to maintain rule. That is why the creative, competitive, and military class built western society. Secular humanism is simply a system of fraud that seeks to transform those costs for maintaining social order into a system of fraud or financial coercion. Violence that is used to defend the system of voluntary trade we call Laissez-Faire, is the most honest of human actions. Pacifism and monotheistic religion are simply a cost reduction effort on the part of the ruling class so that fraud can be supplanted for violence.

    The purpose of the creative class then is to maintain sufficient capacity for violence that it can maintain sufficient capacity to rule, and as rulers, preserve their freedom.

    The use of violence is necessary in order to create the freedom needed to unleash the societies’ creative forces while oppressing its tendency to corruption. Corruption is the normal human response to lower risk and labor in an effort to circumvent the market economy while forcing others to participate in the market economy.

    Violence applied to preserve freedom, that is, voluntary trade and property, is not only honest, it is constructive, and it is the optimum method for human prosperity and cooperation.

    One need not force all men to be free. One need only have sufficient force that he is free.