Are Tech Sanctions Against China Working? (yes, but…)
The new Chinese chip is produced with older 2017 tech, and they are trying to copy the dutch tech necessary for the next generation we use today.
I’m not confident we can maintain this much of a lead for another decade, but just as we outlasted the soviets, and we are outlasting the russians in ukraine, we are trying to outlast the chinese before the natural consequences of their government, policy, absurd geostrategy, and demographics force either exacerbation of their return to totalitarian isolation in an effort to prevent europeanization (regional states), or more civil inclusion in to the commercial world order by assisting rather than undermining it. The chinese aren’t known for being terribly bright in this matter over their long history for reasons I might explain elsewhere – though no one has quite determined the cultural vs genetic vs institutional distribution of that causality.
The problem China faces is they’re poor country but they have a huge population, have relatively low wages, suffering the middle income trap, but centralization gives the government extraordinary access to capital, and that govt will subsidize any R&D that promises to catch up to fulfill the CCPs delusions of grandeur. And they can throw that capital, and three orders of magnitude the number of engineers, scientists, and technical laborers at a problem and we simply can’t. And leading capitalist democracies maximizing employent, consumer spending, and luxury benefits will allways be vulnerable to authoritarian capitalist regimes (Fascist) that produce adversarial competition against otusiders in favor of hyperconsumption and luxury of citizens.
While the chinese population is apparently vastly overstated, and while it’s collapsing at an alarming rate, there are still only 750k ethnic europeans with an average of 100iq against at least 1.2 billion chinese with a 4-5 IQ population advantage, and more docile genetics, and more aggressive parents, and far more disciplined education, that despite rampant cheating and corruption, produces an advantage over europeans in tech even though on a smaller scale per capita than the ashkenazi do in verbal skills.
Hope this helps.
Curt Doolittle
The Natural Law Institute
The Science of Cooperation
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