Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

  • NEGOTIATES FROM THE PRESUMPTION OF IGNORANCE AND PRESUMPTION OF THE OPPONENT’S M

    https://www.quora.com/How-did-President-Trump-choke-North-Koreas-economy-that-forced-a-meeting-between-him-and-Kim-Jong-Un-to-denuclearize/answer/Curt-Doolittle?share=f7c9d48b&srid=u4QvTRUMP NEGOTIATES FROM THE PRESUMPTION OF IGNORANCE AND PRESUMPTION OF THE OPPONENT’S MALFEASANCE. HE MANUFACTURES OPPORTUNITY TO SUCCEED RATHER THAN PLANS A SPECIFIC SUCCESS.

    (I know, because I do the same thing)

    Kim wants legitimacy before his people. Trump wants an excuse to take severe action. The military can use that action to counter china. There are hundreds of issues at play here.

    I have been in the business of negotiating business deals for most of my life – usually M&A in the low range. And trump’s method of negotiation is very transparent to me.

    You just let everyone play their hand, and say anything that encourages people to take further exposure, then wait for opportunity to make use of that information, while suggesting that you’ll accept possibilities different from your central objective.

    This makes it extremely hard for the opposition to rally and counter you, and ensures you have the maximum information at your disposal. This works when many people are fighting for your business, money, or approval.

    And it means you do not have to pay them off or make a lot of puts in order to get the best deal. Moreover by giving them hope, and then drawing it out or letting them fail, they are weakened with their constituencies.

    Most presidents and politicians do this under pretense. He just does it openly. Because the worst that happens is he gets to leave the white house which is a bit like slumming for him.

    Meanwhile his base is more dedicated than any president in modern history.

    He governs as does a king rather than the postmodern priesthood that’s been common since Johnson. And I am still not sure it’s a bad thing.Updated Mar 15, 2018, 12:59 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-15 12:59:00 UTC

  • Trump Negotiates From The Presumption Of Ignorance And Presumption Of The Opponent’s Malfeasance. He Manufactures Opportunity To

    (I know, because I do the same thing) Kim wants legitimacy before his people. Trump wants an excuse to take severe action. The military can use that action to counter china. There are hundreds of issues at play here. I have been in the business of negotiating business deals for most of my life – usually M&A in the low range. And trump’s method of negotiation is very transparent to me. You just let everyone play their hand, and say anything that encourages people to take further exposure, then wait for opportunity to make use of that information, while suggesting that you’ll accept possibilities different from your central objective. This makes it extremely hard for the opposition to rally and counter you, and ensures you have the maximum information at your disposal. This works when many people are fighting for your business, money, or approval. And it means you do not have to pay them off or make a lot of puts in order to get the best deal. Moreover by giving them hope, and then drawing it out or letting them fail, they are weakened with their constituencies. Most presidents and politicians do this under pretense. He just does it openly. Because the worst that happens is he gets to leave the white house which is a bit like slumming for him. Meanwhile his base is more dedicated than any president in modern history. He governs as does a king rather than the postmodern priesthood that’s been common since Johnson. And I am still not sure it’s a bad thing.
  • How Did President Trump Choke North Korea’s Economy That Forced A Meeting Between Him And Kim Jong Un To Denuclearize?

    Kim wants legitimacy before his people. Trump wants an excuse to take severe action. The military can use that action to strategically counter china. There are hundreds of issues at play here, and the strategic future changes dramatically both ways.

    I have been in the business of negotiating business deals for most of my life – usually M&A in the low range. And trump’s method of negotiation is very transparent to me. You just let everyone play their hand, and say anything that encourages people to take further exposure, then wait for opportunity to make use of that information, while suggesting that you’ll accept possibilities different from your central objective.

    This makes it extremely hard for the opposition to rally and counter you, and ensures you have the maximum information at your disposal. This works when many people are fighting for your business, money, or approval. And it means you do not have to pay them off or make a lot of puts in order to get the best deal. Moreover by giving them hope, and then drawing it out or letting them fail, they are weakened with their constituencies.

    Most presidents and politicians do this under pretense. He just does it openly. Because the worst that happens is he gets to leave the white house which is a bit like slumming for him.

    Meanwhile his base is more dedicated than any president in recent history.

    He governs as does a king rather than the postmodern priesthood that’s been common since Johnson. And I am still not sure it’s a bad thing.

    https://www.quora.com/How-did-President-Trump-choke-North-Koreas-economy-that-forced-a-meeting-between-him-and-Kim-Jong-Un-to-denuclearize

  • How Did President Trump Choke North Korea’s Economy That Forced A Meeting Between Him And Kim Jong Un To Denuclearize?

    Kim wants legitimacy before his people. Trump wants an excuse to take severe action. The military can use that action to strategically counter china. There are hundreds of issues at play here, and the strategic future changes dramatically both ways.

    I have been in the business of negotiating business deals for most of my life – usually M&A in the low range. And trump’s method of negotiation is very transparent to me. You just let everyone play their hand, and say anything that encourages people to take further exposure, then wait for opportunity to make use of that information, while suggesting that you’ll accept possibilities different from your central objective.

    This makes it extremely hard for the opposition to rally and counter you, and ensures you have the maximum information at your disposal. This works when many people are fighting for your business, money, or approval. And it means you do not have to pay them off or make a lot of puts in order to get the best deal. Moreover by giving them hope, and then drawing it out or letting them fail, they are weakened with their constituencies.

    Most presidents and politicians do this under pretense. He just does it openly. Because the worst that happens is he gets to leave the white house which is a bit like slumming for him.

    Meanwhile his base is more dedicated than any president in recent history.

    He governs as does a king rather than the postmodern priesthood that’s been common since Johnson. And I am still not sure it’s a bad thing.

    https://www.quora.com/How-did-President-Trump-choke-North-Koreas-economy-that-forced-a-meeting-between-him-and-Kim-Jong-Un-to-denuclearize

  • The principle teaching of Sun Tzu is delay, deceive, and wait for opportunity, b

    The principle teaching of Sun Tzu is delay, deceive, and wait for opportunity, by incrementally depriving the opponent of opportunity. The principle teaching of the west is to confront and solve problems immediately internally and externally. Why? we have always been a minority.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-14 18:43:03 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973992921535000591

    Reply addressees: @sonshi_com

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973977851165847563


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

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    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973977851165847563

  • Here is a self reported graph of corruption. Sorry man. Interpersonal trust, rep

    Here is a self reported graph of corruption. Sorry man. Interpersonal trust, reported trust, does not translate to social, economic, and political trust – the consequence is the absence of familialism and corruption.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-14 18:26:31 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973988763402678277

    Reply addressees: @sonshi_com

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973987545280376833


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    Original post on X

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    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973987545280376833

  • What I could have said is that trust depends largely on the predictability of ou

    What I could have said is that trust depends largely on the predictability of outcomes,and traditions, norms,laws, institutions, and in particular, the absence of corruption and rents, as well as relative indifference in signaling ability produces trust for obvious reasons(risk).


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-14 18:22:59 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973987873602056202

    Reply addressees: @sonshi_com

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973987161216299017


    IN REPLY TO:

    Unknown author

    @sonshi_com I didn’t say anything about low income. 😉 I didn’t mention asymmetry but I could have. Small homogenous extended kin groups that have practiced manorial eugenics have extraordinary interpersonal trust. the opposite produces the opposite (american trust has been declining).

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/973987161216299017


    IN REPLY TO:

    @curtdoolittle

    @sonshi_com I didn’t say anything about low income. 😉 I didn’t mention asymmetry but I could have. Small homogenous extended kin groups that have practiced manorial eugenics have extraordinary interpersonal trust. the opposite produces the opposite (american trust has been declining).

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/973987161216299017

  • How much pleasure does it give us that New Jersey(NYC), Connecticut(Hartford-New

    How much pleasure does it give us that New Jersey(NYC), Connecticut(Hartford-NewHaven), Rhode Island(Providence), Illinois(Chicago), Michigan(Detroit), California(Greater LA), are all close to bankruptcy having exhausted all possible rents from producers?

    ha. Ha ha. Ha ha ha ha….


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-14 12:49:00 UTC

  • POLITICS IS QUITE SIMPLE REALLY – TRUTH IS SIMPLE, LIES ARE COMPLICATED. Politic

    POLITICS IS QUITE SIMPLE REALLY – TRUTH IS SIMPLE, LIES ARE COMPLICATED.

    Politics is just a proxy for war. Markets are superior to political orders because they calculate maximum mutual by reciprocity.

    The problem as in all things, is producing limits. Capitalism and socialism are both unlimited by reciprocity.

    Only rule of law of reciprocity produces markets that discover the balance between private and commons.

    We fuss and fume over capitalism vs socialism, or authoritarianism vs anarchism, but the only underlying difference is rule of law and reciprocity vs rule by discretion and reciprocity.

    *For, the only purpose of discretion is, and can be, to violate reciprocity*.

    And the problem heretofore has been the means of limiting markets by the measurement of capital in toto that changes.

    Why? Because humans evolved in a world that easily equilibrated their consumptions within the band or tribe – because they could only externalize costs onto the natural world.

    But at current scale, when we cooperate via host of proxies, we can and do largely externalize against others whether kin, polity, nation, competitors, or man. And man retaliates differently and more immediately from nature against those impositions.

    So politics is quite simple under meritocracy, and politics is quite complicated under irreciprocity. Under rule of law of reciprocity, markets that result from that rule of law (both private and common) are quite transparent, simple and explicable.

    Under the irreciprocity of politics and rule by discretion, the results of that discretion (and deception) is not transparent, complicated, and largely inexplicable.

    The principle problem in achieving reciprocity and transparency is the percentage of your population that can survive competition in the market. If a group cannot survive competition in the market because it has too many members that cannot compete in the market, then political discretion, corruption, and irreciprocity evolve out of the necessity of survival.

    Ergo the only possible means of producing reciprocity is to prevent the expansion and produce the contraction of those individuals that cannot compete in the market given present technology, resources, and competitors. And in doing so prevent the emergence of a body of elites that employ discretionary rule.

    This brief passage explains almost all of politics. The british system and the current scandinavian was possible because of such aggressive culling of the underclasses, and the economic dependence upon the militia for both offense and defense.

    The british model preserved tripartism (clergy, nobility, businessmen-farmers ), and thereby produced a government that funcitoned as a market between the ‘able’ classes (aristocracy, nobility, managers of production, and the church (women and underclasses).)

    The enlightenment seizure and creating of a monopoly rather than preservation of the market between the classes was made possible by the disproportionate returns on the empirical revolution’s increases in productivity.

    Yet that marginal increase in productivity which allowed for great concentration of wealth has increasingly dissipated due to the anglo-american and less-so european distribution and enforcement of consumer capitalism (markets).

    Yet most societies have returned to monopoly government rather than market, because of asymmetries in populations and the utility of concentrating capital in the state as a means of projecting military power by which market advantages are gained.

    This is all there is to politics. There is very little other to be understood. Everything else is just negotiating position using some sort of fiction.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-14 10:42:00 UTC

  • Politics Is Quite Simple Really – Truth Is Simple, Lies Are Complicated.

    Politics is just a proxy for war. Markets are superior to political orders because they calculate maximum mutual by reciprocity. The problem as in all things, is producing limits. Capitalism and socialism are both unlimited by reciprocity. Only rule of law of reciprocity produces markets that discover the balance between private and commons. We fuss and fume over capitalism vs socialism, or authoritarianism vs anarchism, but the only underlying difference is rule of law and reciprocity vs rule by discretion and reciprocity. *For, the only purpose of discretion is, and can be, to violate reciprocity*. And the problem heretofore has been the means of limiting markets by the measurement of capital in toto that changes. Why? Because humans evolved in a world that easily equilibrated their consumptions within the band or tribe – because they could only externalize costs onto the natural world. But at current scale, when we cooperate via host of proxies, we can and do largely externalize against others whether kin, polity, nation, competitors, or man. And man retaliates differently and more immediately from nature against those impositions. So politics is quite simple under meritocracy, and politics is quite complicated under irreciprocity. Under rule of law of reciprocity, markets that result from that rule of law (both private and common) are quite transparent, simple and explicable. Under the irreciprocity of politics and rule by discretion, the results of that discretion (and deception) is not transparent, complicated, and largely inexplicable. The principle problem in achieving reciprocity and transparency is the percentage of your population that can survive competition in the market. If a group cannot survive competition in the market because it has too many members that cannot compete in the market, then political discretion, corruption, and irreciprocity evolve out of the necessity of survival. Ergo the only possible means of producing reciprocity is to prevent the expansion and produce the contraction of those individuals that cannot compete in the market given present technology, resources, and competitors. And in doing so prevent the emergence of a body of elites that employ discretionary rule. This brief passage explains almost all of politics. The british system and the current scandinavian was possible because of such aggressive culling of the underclasses, and the economic dependence upon the militia for both offense and defense. The british model preserved tripartism (clergy, nobility, businessmen-farmers ), and thereby produced a government that funcitoned as a market between the ‘able’ classes (aristocracy, nobility, managers of production, and the church (women and underclasses).) The enlightenment seizure and creating of a monopoly rather than preservation of the market between the classes was made possible by the disproportionate returns on the empirical revolution’s increases in productivity. Yet that marginal increase in productivity which allowed for great concentration of wealth has increasingly dissipated due to the anglo-american and less-so european distribution and enforcement of consumer capitalism (markets). Yet most societies have returned to monopoly government rather than market, because of asymmetries in populations and the utility of concentrating capital in the state as a means of projecting military power by which market advantages are gained. This is all there is to politics. There is very little other to be understood. Everything else is just negotiating position using some sort of fiction.