Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

DISCUSSING PENDING DOMESTIC CRISES AND WHY THE FUTURE IS UNPREDICTABLE.
Tricia;
I’m kind of … curious (and I probably shouldn’t be) why the same level of economic analysis prior to 2001, and 2008 are not occurring today or not visible today, despite that (a) yes the causes and consequences of this ‘correction (collapse)’ are more diverse and less certain, (b) any means of recovery from it not only uncertain but questionable, (c) the causal density of risk worldwide is as great as before the first world wars and for very similar reasons.

In other words, the fearful and dramatic noise over the state of the geostrategic and geoeconomic world is drowning out the more abstract discourse of the vast domestic economic correction, and the impact our demography, our factionalization, and our regional diversity of economies will exacerbate everything from political divisiveness, economic restructuring, and worse the pressure for civil war if not solved.

I’m in the “this is the quiet before the storm” moment because we simply do not see that causal density: all these cycles coming to collapse at the same time.

I usually tell people that I can predict trends simply by predicting the natural corrections – but I can’t predict trigger events – only time frames.

But what do we do when all trend lines collapse at the same time, and we can’t predict trigger events, and worse we can’t even imagine, less predict, possible solutions on the other side of the inflection point?

IMO taking iran off the plate – and failing – was a catastrophic lost opportunity that preserved a set of possible triggers. IMO trump causing the replacement of China’s Xi with his sanctions should have lowered the number of possible triggers. The exhaustion of russian economy, military, and demography should have lowered the same number of possible triggers. The forcing of europe to pay for its own defense should have lowered the number of triggers.

But in general, just of those three, nothing else considered, I’m not sure we’ve moved the needle on the spectrum of possible trigger events. Perhaps we’ve moved domestic crisis to international crisis? At least that’s what it looks like.

So you know, despite my history of predictions, my ability to predict the near future, as I’ve stated before, is limited to “something is gonna happen and it’s gonna be bad, and it’ll last from 3 to 30 years depending upon how bad it is.” But I have no idea what the world uses to recover from or what the world might look like afterward. 🙁