Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

Q: CURT: ~~”Predictions of the Future?”~~

I’ve been saying since about 2004 that I have a very clear picture of the world until 2020 but after that I have no idea what’s on the other side. Because it will be determined by the noise (chaos) of the rapid adjustment of populations economies power, and cultural ambitions as the end of endless growth and comparative advantage return us to a semi state of equality similar to the agrarian age, which we haven’t seen in six hundred. years.

So while I can enumerate a spectrum of possibilities I think at present the calculus consists of who collapses first: the russia-iran-china axis and attempted restoration of empires, or the american-european attempt to create nation states with europe (france really) foolishly trying to create another america and america devolving as was originally intended into a continent of culturally different nation states (or collections thereof).

If the USA has an internal conflict first, then I would expect the world to explode very rapidly, and risk to increase beyond comprehension. If the world confict launches first it might suppress internal USA conflict. However there is no chance that our government or the world, or the world’s perception of itself and its future looks anything like the 20th.

We are learning that our utopian dreams were childish ambitions and a folly no matter which point of the political triangle we advocated.

I orginally thought that the USA would ‘correct’ before the rest of the world seized the opportunity to restore their imperial ambitions. And that’s in part because I assumed the rest of the world understood the consequence of the end of the anglo order.

But apparently not.

So… All I know at present is that we’re going to have a very bad ‘decade’ – like the seventies – and possibly. more (like japan) but ‘we’re in new territory’. we have no economic model for the future we’re entering other than the post-roman return to the farms. And that’s pretty scary.