It’s already happening. For an easy example, look what’s happening to indian tech labor… Very few things are pure commodities. There are trade offs. Those costs are included.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-28 20:39:11 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939061036369494035
That’s not the point Peter. The point is that tariffs incentivize domestic production. So a Tariff is the cost of the incentive necessary to repatriate an industry. And it’s rational because any POSSIBLE domestic production that was offshored was a game of labor arbitrage that lowered wages – thus privatizing the public commons: which is of course, theft.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-28 19:56:07 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939050195570073665
Modern economies cannot function without fiat money, fiat credit, and some variation on income taxes – which are, in reality, government commissions on creating the rule of law necessary for complex commercial production distribution and trade.
Would a flat tax be better with a much higher income required for reporting? Probably. There is no need to tax most of the working classes who produce something on the order of 3% of revenues.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-28 18:07:07 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939022766893916287
Yes but MA is adaptive because of a diversified economy in high value sectors (thank the universities). So it tends to recover from shocks better than other states. (which it has had plenty of).
I mean,. we all like to pick on MA, but the truth is that fiscally, the government has done a fair job – including it’s 1.4B kept in reserve for these sort of things.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-26 00:09:08 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1938026708298588614
RE “State Collapse”
–“”But not Oregon or Washington?”–
They aren’t in the top 10.
But then, it’s is a list of GOVERNMENTS that will be completely insolvent without the capacity to go bankrupt – states have no way of going bankrupt as such they can only default.
The various other economies might shift for the worse, but they don’t have the debt that these five to.
I expect my home turf (greater seattle-redmond region) to get a kick in the backside on a scale not quite reaching that of boeing in the 70s. And I suspect a price correction in home values in the 30-40% range.
The problem with that prediction is the possible rate of adaptation of tech vs capital intensive industries. I’ve lived through the Boston tech correction. I expect this one to be about the same. But with more employee re-assignment at much lower income levels – just like we have seen at Microsoft of late. But on a much larger scale.
Other States have other problems. For example, Hawaii is screwed if disposable income goes down as expected, since it’s a tourist economy. Same for Nevada. On the other hand, Kentucky and a few others are screwed because they are dependent on federal subsidy that will equally come to an and for the same reason.
As we say, fiscal conservatism is simply the best choice at all times other than war.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-25 23:59:40 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1938024324134539688
INESCAPABLE COLLAPSE OF TOP 5 US STATES
The States and their Economies that will collapse during this cycle of ‘correction’:
– California (LA, SF, SD axis)
– Illinois (Chicago and Region)
– New York (NYC)
– New Jersey (NYC-Philadelphia Extended Region)
– Connecticut (NYC Region, Hartford-New Haven Region)
Over-reliance on taxes from a small number of high earners.
Over Estimation of the flexibility of concentration ( limited diversity) of the economy.
Over-promising Pensions and government wages.
Over Estimating Demographic ‘Stickiness’. Spending, Income Tax, and other Contributions leave with the most mobile young people leaving states with the expenditures.
There is nothing that can be done other than defaulting on Pensions that never were possible and should never have been permitted.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-25 23:29:46 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1938016801264439494
HERE WE GO….
Accenture is exiting india in favor of AI. Why? India is used for low wage low productivity low value tech services. These are precisely the services that are most easy to replace with AI. This shift comes after the virtual consumption of Avanade (the microsoft tech version of Accenture) by Accenture.
Note: I sold my company’s division specializing in CRM to Avanade/Accenture for the simple reason that the business had grown past our point of comfort. (ie: concentration is not a good thing in consulting.)
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-23 15:51:01 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937176576074084749
I/O: Love ya, but income is not a measure of cost to behavioral, normative, institutional, and genetic capital. Yet it is behavioral, normative, institutional and genetic capital collapse that causes the “bowling alone” effect – collapse of social capital. What we are living through today.
Worse, the capacity of western civ to produce high trust commons and produce material commons, only possible by high trust polities, means europeans can both make more money and live comfortably on less money than other groups.
So while I generally agree with you, the reality is that you’re engaging in selective accounting and justification instead of measurement by full accounting of costs.
Which is of course the accidental sophistry that has created the nonsense pseudoscience of the twentieth century that the present world conditions are exposing rather rapidly.
Curt Doolittle
NLI
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-09 20:09:30 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1932168195831742823
Those numbers look low to me, so I would need an explanation of their constitution (What went into them). However, at current debt and spending levels it is entirely possible these numbers are correct.
Source date (UTC): 2025-05-21 17:13:03 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1925238421657985524
MSFT SAVINGS BY TERMINATION 7000 MIDDLE LEVEL PEOPLE IN RESPONSE TO AI.
–“Let’s see 7000 x $80,000 avg. salary = $560,000,000 That’s quite a bit of money they are saving.”–
That’s a dramatic underestimation, about 1/3 of the real number.
Instead: $144,000 (base) * 180% (Load) = $259,200 per employee.
7000 * $259,200 = 1,814,400,000 or ~ 1.8 Billion USD
Estimate via:
– The average salary for Microsoft employees in the USA varies across sources but generally falls between $115,000 and $220,000 annually, depending on the role, experience, and whether total compensation (including bonuses and stock) is considered.
– The average base salary is $130,000 per year, with an average bonus of $14,000, totaling ~$144,000.
– For most companies, use 130%–150% of base salary as a general rule.
– For Microsoft or similar tech giants, 160%–200% is reasonable, reflecting their investment in talent and infrastructure.
Reply addressees: @Neowick666 @ns123abc
Source date (UTC): 2025-05-14 02:27:06 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922478748483649536
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922343803479826935