Economics: Principles vs. Pathologies
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-30 04:04:45 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1950407190516551801
Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy
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it’s not only predictable it’s deterministic. the question is one of boiling the
it’s not only predictable it’s deterministic. the question is one of boiling the frog: how long before what we perceive as outliers emerge as the pattern: profiting from asymmetry. So you’re displaying the normal, expected human behavior of not observing something until it’s close enough to affect you revealing the pattern.
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-25 19:31:25 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1948828452616073259
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MOST POOR FOLK ARE WHITE? The majority of people living in poverty in the United
MOST POOR FOLK ARE WHITE?
The majority of people living in poverty in the United States are ethnically white, when considering raw numbers. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau (2023), approximately 36.8 million people were living below the poverty line
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-17 14:09:15 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1945848273807581354
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Which one is providing more value by externality. That’s the frustrating part
Which one is providing more value by externality. That’s the frustrating part.
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-06 01:04:16 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1941664461204619640
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How Double Income Households Became an Obligation https:// youtube.com/shorts/ku
How Double Income Households Became an Obligation
https://
youtube.com/shorts/kuZVg2q
hy7Q?si=J_AC-O9SF1numwrC
… via
@YouTube
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-04 04:24:23 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1940990048033558951
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Is Microsoft Replacing Expensive American Workers with Cheap India H1B workers?
Is Microsoft Replacing Expensive American Workers with Cheap India H1B workers?
Let’s dive deeper into the distribution of laid-off workers and H-1B hires at Microsoft to assess whether this reflects a replacement of existing workers with lower-cost labor or a shift toward new AI-focused roles, also filled with lower-cost H-1B workers. This distinction is critical, as you’ve noted: the former could invite legal and political backlash in the current climate (e.g., under a Trump administration emphasizing “America First” policies), while the latter aligns with tech innovation priorities and is less likely to face criticism. I’ll base this on available data as of 06:59 PM EDT on Thursday, July 03, 2025, supplemented by trends and reasonable inference, while addressing your FYI about Microsoft potentially relocating to India.Step 1: Distribution of Laid-Off Workers-
Scale and Timing: Microsoft announced layoffs of approximately 9,000 employees on July 02, 2025, following cuts of 6,000 in May and 305 in June, totaling over 15,300 this year (Hindustan Times, 2025-07-03; CNBC, 2025-07-02). The company’s global workforce was 228,000 as of June 2024, so these cuts represent about 6.7% of its headcount in 2025 alone.
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Divisional Breakdown: Reports indicate layoffs span multiple divisions, including Xbox, Azure cloud services, and Redmond HQ (Hindustan Times; The Job Chicks Insider Edge, 2025-07-02). Xbox cuts (e.g., 5-10% of its team) suggest a focus on underperforming gaming units, while Azure layoffs might tie to AI infrastructure optimization. However, specific role types (e.g., engineers, support staff) and geographic distribution aren’t detailed in public data yet.
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Skill Profile: Historically, Microsoft layoffs have targeted mid-level and support roles alongside some engineering positions during restructuring (e.g., 2023 cuts). The current wave likely includes a mix of software developers, IT support, and administrative staff, though AI-related roles might be spared or shifted internally.
Step 2: Distribution of H-1B Hires-
Volume and Timing: Microsoft filed 4,712 Labor Condition Applications (LCAs) for H-1B visas in the first half of fiscal 2025 (
, updated 06/04/2025), with a historical total of 14,181 applications from 2022-2024. This suggests a continued reliance on H-1B workers, with the 2025 filings coinciding with the July layoffs.
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Occupational Focus: Per The Hindu (2025-01-22), 65% of H-1B petitions in 2023 were for computer-related occupations (e.g., software engineers, data scientists), and 72% went to Indian nationals, reflecting Microsoft’s outsourcing and AI talent needs.
notes these roles often involve specialized skills in AI, machine learning, and cloud computing—areas Microsoft is heavily investing in (e.g., Microsoft 365 Copilot,
, 2025-05-01).
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Geographic and Wage Context: Most H-1B hires are likely based in the U.S. (e.g., Redmond, WA), with wages often below market median due to visa constraints (
). For example, H-1B salaries at Microsoft averaged $104,000 in 2023 (
), compared to a U.S. median software engineer salary of $127,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024), suggesting cost savings.
Step 3: Comparing Layoffs and H-1B Hires-
Overlap in Roles: The lack of granular data on laid-off roles complicates direct comparison. If layoffs primarily hit Xbox gaming or support staff (non-AI roles), while H-1B hires target AI and cloud engineers, this suggests a shift rather than replacement. However, if engineering or IT support roles overlap (e.g., junior developers), the replacement narrative gains traction. Given Microsoft’s AI pivot (e.g., AI agents handling tasks,
), it’s plausible that some laid-off engineers are being replaced by H-1B AI specialists.
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Cost Dynamics: H-1B workers’ lower wages (up to 20-30% below market, per
) could drive replacement if roles are similar. For a shift scenario, the cost savings might fund new AI initiatives, with H-1B hires filling niche roles unavailable domestically. Microsoft’s 2025 infrastructure investments (carbon-negative goals,
) indicate a long-term AI strategy, supporting the shift hypothesis.
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Scale Alignment: The 9,000 layoffs dwarf the 4,712 H-1B applications in 2025, suggesting not all layoffs are tied to H-1B hires. This could reflect broader cost-cutting (e.g., 63,443 tech layoffs industry-wide,
) rather than a one-to-one replacement.
Step 4: Legal and Political Implications-
Replacement Scenario: If evidence emerges that Microsoft fired American engineers for H-1B hires in identical roles, it could violate the H-1B program’s requirement to prioritize U.S. workers when qualified (8 U.S.C. § 1182(n)). In the current political climate—post-Trump’s 2025 immigration stance (
)—this could trigger lawsuits (e.g., shareholder actions hinted at on X) or DOL investigations. The 2004 Minnesota lawsuit precedent strengthens this risk.
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Shift Scenario: Hiring H-1B workers for new AI roles, while laying off non-AI staff, aligns with innovation narratives and faces less scrutiny. Politically, AI investment is a bipartisan priority (e.g., CHIPS Act funding), making this defensible unless wage exploitation is proven.
Analysis and Conclusion-
Most Likely Scenario: The data leans toward a shift rather than pure replacement. Microsoft’s layoffs span diverse divisions (Xbox, Azure), while H-1B hires focus on AI and cloud skills, suggesting a strategic pivot to AI-driven growth. The cost savings from H-1B wages likely fund this transition, but the overlap in engineering roles leaves room for partial replacement—perhaps 20-30% of layoffs affecting similar positions.
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Evidence Gaps: Without role-specific data (e.g., from SEC filings or DOL records), it’s hard to quantify exact overlap. Future
or
updates could clarify this.
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Your FYI on India: The 72% Indian H-1B share and Microsoft’s India R&D hub (employing 20,000+, Hindustan Times) support your relocation hypothesis. Political pressure (e.g., H-1B criticism) might push Microsoft to expand offshore, though tax incentives and U.S. AI leadership keep its HQ in Redmond for now.
Source date (UTC): 2025-07-03 23:03:18 UTC
Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/1940909242090987684
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My point in sharing this is to reinforce a repetition of the principle that all
My point in sharing this is to reinforce a repetition of the principle that all increases in wages are consumed by increases in mortgages and rent. Likewise all increases in rent and mortgages drive up the rate of inflation.
I was taught the hydraulic model of economics which is vaguely analogous to the conservation of energy in physics. Just like Economics in One Lesson, it teaches you to search for the equilibrating output that response to your input.
You can only ‘cheat’ a market for the time it takes for it to adapt. Its means of adaptation may change something direct and obvious or indirect and non-obvious.
My favorite example being the non-neutrality of money in the short to medium term and the accumulation of those non-neutralities in ‘hidden places’ if repeated with frequency.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-30 18:36:27 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939754923417317774
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NONSENSE: This relief of sanctions on oil is designed to maintain world energy p
NONSENSE: This relief of sanctions on oil is designed to maintain world energy prices. It’s the same reason the admin asked ukraine to focus on military rather than petroleum installations, and the same reason the israelis didn’t destroy iran’s petroleum distillation, storage, and port.
Don’t be a nitwit by spreading nonsense to other nitwits.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-30 14:31:09 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939693194285121593
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RE: Current Housing Bubble Popping. That wasn’t hard to predict. Just the timing
RE: Current Housing Bubble Popping.
That wasn’t hard to predict. Just the timing – as usual.
Biggest in US history. FL and TX just the beginning.
I’m still at 30-40% in the overblown markets.
But it’ll take time to effect the flyover regions.
The variables are greater than the financial nonsense in ’08 et al. Add job automation and world conflict and accelerating domestic conflict, possible success at border closure, forcible deportation and voluntary return migration, with the solid chance of ending the H1B waves, and I dunno where this ends. Good for the young in some ways but not for the seniors. I’m seeing the 30% drop in florida already and in the stock prices of the big homebuilders.
My pivot since 08 to work on law instead of economics has left me a little less aware of the state of things but there was no missin this correction. I just thought it’d be earlier.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-29 01:53:55 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939140240222114205
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It’s econ 101 it’s not econ 560. If I had the knowledge to restore us steel prod
It’s econ 101 it’s not econ 560.
If I had the knowledge to restore us steel production or video screens I would do it.
Our market is more valuable than their deprivation of it can tolerate.
Just is.
Source date (UTC): 2025-06-28 22:20:15 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1939086471170011298