Curt Doolittle

Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

  • Curt Doolittle’s answer: China is a very poor country. But it has more populatio

    Curt Doolittle’s answer: China is a very poor country. But it has more population than the Western world, more population than the African world, about the same or more than the Indian world, less population than the Muslim world, and perhaps most importantly, greater racial and cultural homogene…

  • My answer to How likely is it that Toronto will suffer a recession considering h

    My answer to How likely is it that Toronto will suffer a recession considering house prices and the consumer debt c… https://www.quora.com/How-likely-is-it-that-Toronto-will-suffer-a-recession-considering-house-prices-and-the-consumer-debt-continues-to-rise-at-a-very-fast-rate-and-the-wages-do-not-rise/answer/Curt-Doolittle?share=c22e918c

    Source date (UTC): 2017-12-16 02:40:59 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/941860680776511488

  • How Valid Is The Claim That We’re On The Verge Of Economic Collapse Due To The Vanishing Supply Of Cheap Conventional Oil And The Declining Energy Return On Investment (eroi)?

    There is no validity to the crisis. There is a great deal of validity to the EROI.

    The problem is population.

    There are too many at the bottom.

    https://www.quora.com/How-valid-is-the-claim-that-were-on-the-verge-of-economic-collapse-due-to-the-vanishing-supply-of-cheap-conventional-oil-and-the-declining-energy-return-on-investment-EROI

  • Why Is Russia, With This Great Potential (140 Million Intelligent People, Large Country With Natural Resources, Great Geography And Climate Etc.) Still Relatively Poor?

    A) Um, all aggregate measurements are misleading. If in a country of 1M people, they make $1 a day and I make $1B a day, the GDP/Population will be 365M + 365B/1M, giving the impression that everyone in the country is making more than $300K per year.
    B) Resources are a curse, because they lead to corruption, rent seeking, subsidy, and a lack of innovation.
    C) Putin does not get credit for his expansion of rule of law. But corruption is pervasive. It is not like corruption in the states – which is invisible – it’s visible. And in some ways that’s more tolerable. But it is very hard to start and keep a business running, and it’s middle class and business that drives a people out of low income.
    B) Russia is a VERY big place. I mean, the USA is big. But Russia is 11 time zones big, and like canada, the population is largely along the borders. Imagine the cost of infrastructure in Belgium or Denmark vs the cost of infrastructure in Russia? For example, I spent some time with the founder and ‘president’ of one of the popular mega sports store chains. And what do you do when you run a business across that many time zones, and telephone, internet, and power, are often unreliable? What do you do when you must pay (bribe) people in the government just to get basic things done – not even privileges, but just to do their job? I tried to buy a company in moscow, and i literally couldn’t find one to buy. Not because there weren’t any. But because you can’t keep ‘legit’ books and survive. And it’s never clear who owns anything. Until the past few years it was difficult to trust the courts so contracts were difficult, and cash rather than credit slows the economy. So all of these ‘frictions’ add up.
    C) Moscow is a VERY expensive city (I wish I lived there, I love it and I love russian people). But people outside the major cities are still quite poor. (And Belarus and Ukraine are even worse.)
    D) Russians were virtually slaves 150 years ago. Under the soviets it varied quite a bit from murderous, to horrible to comfortable, to exceptionally good. And then they had a catastrophic event (collapse), and then dragged themselves out of it.

    The only difference I have found between ‘white’ russians and ‘white’ americans is that americans are foolishly optimistic and trusting, and russians are foolishly pessimistic and untrusting. The rest of the western world has turned effeminate in the french(postmodern) and jewish(marxist) and outside of Australians, White americans, and White Russians, Christendom is in a catastrophe.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Russia-with-this-great-potential-140-million-intelligent-people-large-country-with-natural-resources-great-geography-and-climate-etc-still-relatively-poor

  • How Valid Is The Claim That We’re On The Verge Of Economic Collapse Due To The Vanishing Supply Of Cheap Conventional Oil And The Declining Energy Return On Investment (eroi)?

    There is no validity to the crisis. There is a great deal of validity to the EROI.

    The problem is population.

    There are too many at the bottom.

    https://www.quora.com/How-valid-is-the-claim-that-were-on-the-verge-of-economic-collapse-due-to-the-vanishing-supply-of-cheap-conventional-oil-and-the-declining-energy-return-on-investment-EROI

  • Why Is Russia, With This Great Potential (140 Million Intelligent People, Large Country With Natural Resources, Great Geography And Climate Etc.) Still Relatively Poor?

    A) Um, all aggregate measurements are misleading. If in a country of 1M people, they make $1 a day and I make $1B a day, the GDP/Population will be 365M + 365B/1M, giving the impression that everyone in the country is making more than $300K per year.
    B) Resources are a curse, because they lead to corruption, rent seeking, subsidy, and a lack of innovation.
    C) Putin does not get credit for his expansion of rule of law. But corruption is pervasive. It is not like corruption in the states – which is invisible – it’s visible. And in some ways that’s more tolerable. But it is very hard to start and keep a business running, and it’s middle class and business that drives a people out of low income.
    B) Russia is a VERY big place. I mean, the USA is big. But Russia is 11 time zones big, and like canada, the population is largely along the borders. Imagine the cost of infrastructure in Belgium or Denmark vs the cost of infrastructure in Russia? For example, I spent some time with the founder and ‘president’ of one of the popular mega sports store chains. And what do you do when you run a business across that many time zones, and telephone, internet, and power, are often unreliable? What do you do when you must pay (bribe) people in the government just to get basic things done – not even privileges, but just to do their job? I tried to buy a company in moscow, and i literally couldn’t find one to buy. Not because there weren’t any. But because you can’t keep ‘legit’ books and survive. And it’s never clear who owns anything. Until the past few years it was difficult to trust the courts so contracts were difficult, and cash rather than credit slows the economy. So all of these ‘frictions’ add up.
    C) Moscow is a VERY expensive city (I wish I lived there, I love it and I love russian people). But people outside the major cities are still quite poor. (And Belarus and Ukraine are even worse.)
    D) Russians were virtually slaves 150 years ago. Under the soviets it varied quite a bit from murderous, to horrible to comfortable, to exceptionally good. And then they had a catastrophic event (collapse), and then dragged themselves out of it.

    The only difference I have found between ‘white’ russians and ‘white’ americans is that americans are foolishly optimistic and trusting, and russians are foolishly pessimistic and untrusting. The rest of the western world has turned effeminate in the french(postmodern) and jewish(marxist) and outside of Australians, White americans, and White Russians, Christendom is in a catastrophe.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Russia-with-this-great-potential-140-million-intelligent-people-large-country-with-natural-resources-great-geography-and-climate-etc-still-relatively-poor

  • How Could The Us Cripple The Russian Economy And Military In One Move Without Them Seeing It Coming?

    block the wire transfer system, visa, mastercard, banking. That was the threat they gave putin when he invaded Ukraine.

    https://www.quora.com/How-could-the-US-cripple-the-Russian-economy-and-military-in-one-move-without-them-seeing-it-coming

  • Why Do Some Economists Believe That American Corporations Will Close Down Their Overseas Factories And Come Back To America And Lower Prices And Hire Droves Of Americans When They Are Doing Just Fine Right Where They Are?

    The only reason to go overseas is to avoid taxation or to obtain cheap labor. As emerging economy labor increases the value of low cost labor diminishes. However, the primary reason is simply cultural and institutional. It’s just a lot easier to do business in America than anywhere else on earth. The entire society is organized to help businesses compete.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-do-some-economists-believe-that-American-corporations-will-close-down-their-overseas-factories-and-come-back-to-America-and-lower-prices-and-hire-droves-of-Americans-when-they-are-doing-just-fine-right-where-they-are

  • How Could The Us Cripple The Russian Economy And Military In One Move Without Them Seeing It Coming?

    block the wire transfer system, visa, mastercard, banking. That was the threat they gave putin when he invaded Ukraine.

    https://www.quora.com/How-could-the-US-cripple-the-Russian-economy-and-military-in-one-move-without-them-seeing-it-coming

  • How Likely Is It That Toronto Will Suffer A Recession Considering House Prices And The Consumer Debt Continues To Rise At A Very Fast Rate And The Wages Do Not Rise?

    Ontario is bankrupt and attempting to use immigration to offset the problem temporarily, which only exacerbates the problem long term. It’s not so much that Toronto will suffer a recession but it will (like Detroit, Hartford…) eventually end up with vast ghettos, and an inability to maintain its infrastructure, followed by an inability to justify the governmetn.

    This is a common cycle that many states get into when they are large enough to accumulate enough debt that there is no correlation between their actions and the consequences due to the time it takes for consequences to occur.

    https://www.quora.com/How-likely-is-it-that-Toronto-will-suffer-a-recession-considering-house-prices-and-the-consumer-debt-continues-to-rise-at-a-very-fast-rate-and-the-wages-do-not-rise