Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

  • RT @micsolana: I am in favor of reparations for students, in which schools are f

    RT @micsolana: I am in favor of reparations for students, in which schools are forced to pay back some significant portion of tuition for t…


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-12 21:22:56 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778896607221604844

  • The ratio of jobs from the commons and those from the private sector will contin

    The ratio of jobs from the commons and those from the private sector will continue to equilibrate.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-12 19:54:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778874422465528196

    Reply addressees: @josh61597760 @GiwdulBielsira @FerghaneA @PLIB_fr @ViandeTiede666 @Cobra_FX_ @_ThDa @PBlanrue @arthurhomines @NIMH_Rage @RageCultureMag @Doomit_Doomit @PaduStream @Etienne_Chouard @ObjectivismeFR @cercle_cobalt @Bunker_D_ @JRochedy @MonsieurPhi @liberteadoree @fare @VillonAdam @whatifalthist

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778873591058112825

  • ARGUMENTS AGAINST UBI 1) Hostility between productive and unproductive segments

    ARGUMENTS AGAINST UBI
    1) Hostility between productive and unproductive segments of society. If productive people feel they are being excessively burdened to support others, social tensions could rise. Some might leave for countries without UBI. And the social cohesion risks exacerbating rather than ameliorating. (I would certainly leave the country and take my companies with me if it occurred.)

    2) Leisure activity justification for low income people on the dole mean they will not gain work experience and worse, they will justify it by creating even more ‘status’ signals promoting idleness and attention seeking instead, continuing the destruction of the (white) lower classes we have seen due to ‘ghetto’ culture expansion.

    3) The same problem with minimum wage: the loss of incentive to expand ability and responsiblity and income creating the low income trap. This will be worse as the economy continues to lose competitiveness only made possible by our control of world reserve currency and military capacity to police world free trade. THe USA must withdraw from policing world trade and is doing so. The USA is using economic warfare to constrain hostile competitors. But these strategies will protect American economic advantage, especially reserve currency status, and military dominance only for a short period of time. We are currently hoping that our economic warfare will collapse the four remaining agrarian empires and complete the postwar strategy of creating a planet of nation states and relatively free trade. If this strategy fails, americans will rapidly become as poor as europeans. And europeans no longer can export defense, political,and trade costs to the USA.

    4) Immigration incentives will vastly accelerate just when the present wave of automation drives more people out of the workforce expanding the lower middle and upper proletarian classes that had a temporary advantage between the rise of the industrial revolution, the postwar economic advantage, the computer revolution, and the expansion of those many white collar jobs is just about to evaporate (which is not considered in the studies of workforce participation collapse that are currently published.)

    5) Asymmetric reproduction incentives – “white,asian, ashkenazi” cultures require high investment parenting. Cities suppress reproduction but largely for those who rely on high invsetment parenting. Convrersely both factors accelerate reproduction of lower class low investment parenting populations, which will only accelerate under UBI.

    6) Estimates of UBI’s inflationary impact vary, but most suggest it would be substantial, especially for housing and other inelastic goods. Rents and home prices would likely absorb much of the UBI. Some estimates suggest additional inflation could be 3-5% or more – and inflation that negates much of UBI’s benefit. In effect, UBI would function as a massive upward redistribution of wealth.

    7) Survival UBI estimates range from around $12k to $20k per person annually in the US. At $12k for 330M people, that’s ~$4T per year, or around 20% of GDP – doubling total tax revenue from a much smaller taxable base concentrating taxes already carried by the people most likely and able to flee the country. It would profoundly distort labor markets, business incentives, and more in ways that are concerning and difficult to predict. UBI this large would be massively disruptive economically.

    8) Estimates of workforce dropout from UBI range from 5% to 30% depending on the study & amount. A 20% reduction in labor participation is likely under a full-scale UBI. This would significantly reduce productivity & economic output. The labor force participation rate is already only 61%. The aging of the population over the next decades will make it worse. The decline in IQ given the asymmetry of reproduction between races and classes will amplify the shortage of IQ in the USA only sustaining by immigration from East Asia, Europe, and India’s upper castes, which would come to an end as competitiveness declined. This means a permanent loss of economic advantage and eventually the dollar to countries with larger populations with higher IQ ratios.

    9) Crime and social dysfunction from people no longer working in formal jobs is another serious concern with UBI. Rates of substance abuse, mental health issues, domestic violence, and crime – all idle hands make ill and crime will rise with unemployment. Even with some offsetting positive UBI effects, idle time often brews problems. Funding productive work (as in #5) and social programs would likely do more to fight crime than UBI.

    INSTEAD:
    10) Instead, paying people for productive work as under the WPA an to improve public goods would be much better than pure UBI. Infrastructure, education, healthcare, community programs, etc. are all chronically underfunded and could benefit enormously from some of the funds and labor that a UBI would absorb unproductively. The WPA model of creating socially valuable employment is promising.

    That’s the tip of the iceberg.

    Reply addressees: @josh61597760 @GiwdulBielsira @FerghaneA @PLIB_fr @ViandeTiede666 @Cobra_FX_ @_ThDa @PBlanrue @arthurhomines @NIMH_Rage @RageCultureMag @Doomit_Doomit @PaduStream @Etienne_Chouard @ObjectivismeFR @cercle_cobalt @Bunker_D_ @JRochedy @MonsieurPhi @liberteadoree @fare @VillonAdam @whatifalthist


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-12 19:33:34 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778869085427666944

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778861412435075511

  • “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

    —“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”–


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-11 23:02:43 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778559332545699983

  • RT @StevePender: @curtdoolittle In Weimar World, all highly profitable economic

    RT @StevePender: @curtdoolittle In Weimar World, all highly profitable economic niches must be filled or they’ll be filled by someone with…


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-11 22:02:26 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778544162222100600

  • MEANINGFUL NEW YEAR DATA DEBTIFICATION #3 Global stocks have increased in value

    MEANINGFUL NEW YEAR DATA

    DEBTIFICATION

    #3 Global stocks have increased in value by more than 25 trillion dollars over the past 10 years.

    #4 In the United States, 84 percent of all stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of all Americans.

    #5 The U.S. government is now more than 23 trillion dollars in debt.

    #12 Total U.S. household debt is about to cross the 14 trillion dollar mark.

    FINANCIALIZATION

    #13 A study that was recently released found that 70 percent of all Americans are struggling financially right now.

    #14 The average family in the United States cannot afford to buy a home in 71 percent of the country.

    #15 58 million jobs in the United States pay less than $793 a week.

    #16 According to the Social Security Administration, 50 percent of all Americans make less than $33,000 a year.

    #17 63 percent of the jobs that have been created in the United States since 1990 have been low wage jobs.

    #42 Almost one-third of all U.S. Millennials are still living with their parents.

    DESOCIALIZATION

    #27 Over the past decade, the suicide rate among young Americans has risen by 56 percent.

    #28 The suicide rate for the overall population increased by 41 percent between 1999 and 2016.

    IDIOCRACY

    #29 One survey has discovered that 15-year-old students in China are almost four full grade levels ahead of 15-year-old students in the United States in mathematics.

    #30 A different survey discovered that one-third of all American teenagers haven’t read a single book in the past year.

    FORNICATION

    #33 23 percent of all U.S. children live with a single parent. That is the highest rate in the entire world by a wide margin.

    #34 Today, approximately 40 percent of all babies in America are born to unmarried women.

    #35 The U.S. fertility rate has fallen 15 percent since 2007 and is now at the lowest level ever recorded.

    CALIFORNICATED

    #38 Today, almost half of all homeless people in the entire nation live in the state of California.

    #39 Over half of all California voters have considered leaving the state.

    DECIVILIZATION

    #40 According to an American Bar Association survey, only 38 percent of all Americans know that the U.S. Constitution is the highest law in the land.

    #41 58 percent of American adults under the age of 35 agree that some version of socialism “would be good for the country”.

    #43 According to the Pew Research Center, only 65 percent of Americans now consider themselves to be Christians. That is the lowest level ever recorded.

    #49 A survey that was conducted a couple of months ago found that 67 percent of all Americans believe that we are “on the edge of civil war”.

    RESTORATION

    #51 A majority of Propertarians believe they can solve these problems by reorganizing society with their new constitution.

    See what I did there? 😉



    Source: Michael Snyder from The Economic Collapse Blog


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-01 09:19:00 UTC

  • Is nearly all of philosophy then, outside of logic, an artful construct for the

    Is nearly all of philosophy then, outside of logic, an artful construct for the purpose of justifying theft?

    One can justify suppression of, prevention of, and restitution for, the taking of discounts. (thefts)

    One can justify the selection of one priority of investment over another. But one cannot argue for the necessity of a monopoly of investments. Nor the mandatory enforcement of participation in investments, other than the suppression of free riding.

    One can argue the necessity for a homogeneity – monopoly – of property rights for the purpose of logically resolving disputes over property and contract – albeit, private property solves that problem, and articulated shareholder rights, retains that ability even under complexity.

    But once a monopoly of property rights exists, one cannot argue the necessity for a monopoly of law making. In fact, logic and evidence suggest precisely the opposite is true: that laws evolve and evolve best under the common law, since they must be interpreted by ordinary citizens, and are open to constant revision without external approval as the world evolves.

    The failure of the common law was (a) its usurpation by the state, and (b) failure to define property rights sufficiently in the face of industrialization. (c) its use by the middle class to dispossess the aristocracy, and consequential use by the proletarians and feminists to dispossess the middle classes.

    Philosophy is quite simple really. It’s only complicated if you’re trying to lie. And theft requires lying. And lying is best covered by obscurity.

    Cheers.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-01-01 15:58:00 UTC

  • THE NECESSARY PROPERTIES OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION (draft of the correction of a p

    THE NECESSARY PROPERTIES OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION

    (draft of the correction of a priorism in economics, politics and ethics.) (important)

    Exchanges are unique. Every one. Marginalism alone renders all exchanges unique – even before we consider the uneven distribution of resources and ability, and the vagaries of nature, and the shifting wants and signals of human beings.

    As such, each exchange is unique, and even aggregate measures of inputs, operations and outputs in similar exchanges are dependent upon Patterns of Sustainable Specialization and Trade; which while sticky, are no guarantee of future exchanges under similar conditions. Constancy is an illusion. Businesses continuously adjust to conditions. So, no relations are constant in economics, even if in the aggregate, in short time periods, they appear so.

    If no relations are constant in economics, that means that we cannot organize production on the assumption of constant relations. This criticism stands alone, even prior to either the problem of calculation without money and prices, or the problem of incentives independent of rewards.

    However, we cannot organize any form of production under the assumption of constant relations without the incentives of multitudinous individuals to produce.

    This is the correct criticism of the socialist method of production.

    1) calculation

    2) inconstancy of relations

    3) impossibility of organization

    4) impossibility of incentives.

    The reason capitalists and executives of all kinds cost more than labor and are rewarded more than labor, is because labor has little to no value in production; and what value it has in production, constantly decreases with mechanization. So, the problem remains how to organize labor whether human, computational or mechanical.

    And while we might argue that middle management has very little value in the organization of labor, organizing the production of goods using labor, using prices and payments as rules, limits and incentives, is the highest contribution to the value of the goods, since the alignment of incentives – what we call ‘execution’ : organizing humans into production – is the art.

    And that is the scarcity that the market rewards.

    THE PROBLEM OF THE A PRIORI ARGUMENT

    If there are no constant relations in economics, but mathematics is the logic of constant relations, and further we attempt to use mathematics to justify intervention in the market for goods and services, then doing is logically impossible. The logical of constant relations, entirely dependent upon constant categories, cannot be used to describe economic conditions and apply them to the future. All we can do with mathematics is mine the recent data for descriptions of what has happened in the existing patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.

    So, if the socialist method of production was impossible, and measurement of the economy at all but the aggregate level is impossible, and measurement at the aggregate level does not capture changes in human, social and moral capital, then it becomes very difficult to suggest that governments can do much except (a) limited trade policy, (b) limited industrial policy, and (c) limited education and health policy (d) defend the rule of law and the common law (e) provide a means for the resolution of disputes.

    Thus, the prior generations argued that we must both not supplant the market means of dynamically organizing unique instances of production, nor interfere with it, and that we may only rely upon deduction and guesswork, and simply leave the market alone.

    However, this is either mistaken – or it is ill said. We can deduce almost nothing of consequence from human action.

    First, we can however, TEST any set of statements to determine whether they are rational and what incentives that they produce. But we cannot deduce much of anything at all – we can only test statements and hypotheses to determine likely human action.

    Second, when we understand that the problem of production is not labor, nor resources, but ORGANIZING production, what we can do is increasingly expand the means by which groups can cooperate on disparate means.

    The most effective way to assist groups in cooperating on means, even if they have disparate or even irreconcilable ends, which we cannot choose between because of the inability to forecast into a kaleidic future, other than value inferences we obtain from existing patterns of specialization and trade, is to suppress all risks OTHER than those of forecasting.

    Namely, the suppression of ‘discounts’. Then more discounts we suppress, the more human action that must be pressed into the market for goods and services, entirely upon the price, quality and distribution of those goods in time. (And independent of schemes.)

    So, if we understand that the production we organize, is the ability for others to frictionlessly organize production, in a world of constant invention and change, it is not entirely true that we can take little action. It is not the production of goods and services that we assist in producing with our governments, but it is the rules by which we dynamically organize production by the suppression of all discounts, everywhere, such than the only possible actions that remain, are to take risks on one’s forecast of the future within one’s patterns of specialization and trade.

    RATHER THAN THE A PRIORI ERROR – WE STATE THIS INSTEAD:

    Economics then, consists of:

    The near universal human ability to test rationality of incentives.

    The near universal human desire to seek discounts.

    The use of organized violence to suppress all discounts.

    The resulting pressure of all human action into the market.

    The construction of institutions to suppress discounting.

    The use of empirical measures to gain short term insight into the patterns of trade.

    The use of such information to inform participants in the ongoing adjustment of such patterns.

    Institutions required are:

    1) Articulated Property Rights and Obligations.

    2) The common law.

    3) An independent Judiciary.

    4) Universal standing so that any individual can seek restitution from any other individual for taking discounts, no matter what the accused’s function in society.

    5) A body of people with the ability to construct contracts on behalf of larger groups, to produce goods that the market cannot organize to produce because of arbitrariness of the choices, or the openness of such contractual investments to free riding, privatization, and socialization or other discounts.

    6) A means for the collection of dividends and choosing between the expenditure on further investments and distribution of proceeds to shareholders.

    We do not need much government. What government we do need, need not be a monopoly. What investments we need need not be decided by majority rule – a monopoly. And those services and goods we need, need not be provided by a monopoly bureaucracy.

    Even if it may be true that the INITIAL CONSTRUCTION of property rights requires the imposition of a monopoly of those rights, and a total prohibition on discounts, that is the limit of such a monopoly. Which is why corporations of separate interests in creating such a system is superior to monopoly of interests in creating such a system, since no member of such a polycentric order would tolerate the usurpation of his rights by another.

    Such a government is a government of unbreakable rules which we call ‘laws’, not a government of people with capacity for decision making, or coercion, or the ability to make laws.

    And our defense against that monopoly government and all forms of abuse, is the training of a near-priesthood called judges who adjudicate differences according to private property rights, and the voluntary agreements that we enter into, and the prohibitions against free riding on the goods produced by those agreements we chose NOT to enter into.

    And to construct as such, that those judges possess only the incentives to use those laws in the fulfillment of their roles.

    We can reduce all of this to the simple assertion, that no man can know the future sufficiently to force others to obey his direction on the use of their minds, bodies, time and property. However, it is quite possible for each of us to judge incentives and for men with training to judge whether property rights were respected or not.

    That is all we need.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-01-01 15:55:00 UTC

  • THE DAMAGE OF WISHES Just reading through todays activity in economics and pieci

    THE DAMAGE OF WISHES

    Just reading through todays activity in economics and piecing together the not obvious fact that our paper of record forms public opinion but is that illusion differs substantially from BBC, Al Jazeera, Russian and Chinese sources more than those sources differ from one another.

    Cowen asks a question about Haiti, and the NYT bias is obvious. But the ideology of wishful thinking bears no resemblance to the reality if Haiti: we have only made it worse. Just like most of what we do makes everything worse.

    Ideological rag.

    The WSJ is the only domestic paper of record that has any correlation with reality. And even that is iffy.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-07-28 16:42:00 UTC