Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

photos_and_videos/TimelinePhotos_43196237263/41665323_10156635057637264_3257693407950143488_o_10156635057627264.jpg TOLD YA SO. But I said it in 2006Plaurent TreskuI say 2022Sep 13, 2018 8:21amSteven JacksonJP Morgan is predicting a crisis or planning one?Sep 13, 2018 8:28amGeorge Perceval Oswald👉🏻😉Sep 13, 2018 8:29amFreyr BjörnssonDid you predict JPMorgan predicting a crisis..? O.OSep 13, 2018 8:37amCorey HarmsComing a little later than originally expected, but it could only be put off for so long. It was inevitable.Sep 13, 2018 8:40amRex BockThen again, Peter Schiff has predicted 20 out of the last 2 recessionsSep 13, 2018 8:43amVik Li…what’s the matter when the Feds can just print and paper over it? =PSep 13, 2018 8:47amAndrew Middletonexactly, prophets of economic doom shit meSep 13, 2018 8:54amEthan Ethanhopefully it’s after the electionSep 13, 2018 8:57amJay Schmitt2020? I’m thinking it’ll start before the end of this year. This is the longest boom period in history.Sep 13, 2018 12:53pmCurt Doolittlehard to see that. but it isn’t far off.Sep 13, 2018 1:06pmCurt Doolittlecould be. Not sure how it can last that long. very little history to support it.Sep 13, 2018 1:07pmTaylor SpoonerI used to think it would be this year or early 2019 but now I think they can keep it up much longer maybe as much as another decade after learning about all the currency swaps that are going on behind closed doors.Sep 13, 2018 2:36pmRaymond WarnerTo many people locked into 401KsSep 13, 2018 3:06pmAndrew ClaytonCould JPMorgan be signaling to set the stage for QE-infinity? Not sure it will work this time, but the willingness of the hoi polloi to keep dancing to this song can still surprise.Sep 13, 2018 5:48pmGlenn KorvneThe sky will fall in 2020 now☺️It was scheduled for last month.Sep 13, 2018 7:39pmCurt Doolittledon’t think it will work. Consensus is stimilus not easingSep 13, 2018 8:05pmRakesh SahgalCurt, what was the basis of your analysis leading you to conclude a ’20 or thereabouts meltdown ?Sep 14, 2018 3:21amVincent CucchiaraCould this have anything to do with Trump running for reelection?Sep 14, 2018 8:03amDaniel Roland Anderson@[741197263:2048:Curt Doolittle]:

You predicted the 2020 crash in 2006, right before the 2008 meltdown?

Could you compare and contrast the 2008 crisis with what you see coming, and perhaps how the 2008 housing crash ties in to 2020?Sep 14, 2018 8:07amDon Lemonatiplease fuck that real estate market up daddySep 14, 2018 10:41amCurt Doolittle@[100001606102878:2048:Rakesh Sahgal], @[572499615:2048:Daniel Roland Anderson]

1 – In the end all economics like all politics is and must be demographics. That’s the net of it right there.

2 – World demographics on the adoption of consumer capitalism and the exhaustion of western advantage.

3 – Western demographics, immigration, and rates of dysgenia will tip sufficiently to act as last resort.

4 – Since every generation is a reaction to the generation before it, people behave in predictable cycles.

5 – The long wave of generations means the world war generations are gone and the communist generation is almost gone.

6 – People school and swarm to opportunities until disequlibrium requires adjustment of patterns of sustainable specialization and trade because of a sufficient shock to collapse them. There is a relationship between the capital investment, debt load, remaining debt capacity, AND the discovery, forgetting, and learning curves of humans that is measurable in all walks of human life: we are new people about every three to four years: the time it takes to cognitively rehabituate so that we no longer bear the cognitive load of group adaptation to changing conditions. So there is a fairly fixed rate of adaptation that is a relationship between the degree of capital required for any sector.

7 – The business cycle exists and the austrians are right that they continuously extend if interfered with. This plot (trajectory) is relatively obvious.

8 – Consumers are literally running out of accumulated entertainment capital to consume. They have been for some time. Much of the expansion of the 90s and 2000’s was expansion of homes to keep the economy generating demand, and use of technology to enable increases in the consumption of entertainment. That inventory is exhausted.

9 – The technological curve of monetary policy appears to have been exhausted, and the next choice is not settled in policy as to whether to use direct redistribution to consumers (me, galbraith, mmt folks), or to let the government spend it instead (every left economist there is.)

10 – The technological curve of the transistor’s influence is almost exhausted, as was electricity’s, steam, and water power before it.

11 – organizing people by markets requires marginal differences in capital and the human capital reserves to make use of them. Those reserves are just about exhausted.

12 – low hanging fruit of hydrocarbons exploitation has been exhausted; movement of labor has been exhausted; the clerical automation is close to exhausted, and the financialization has led to fragility dependent on hyperconsumption, but consumption of what? We are no longer, and have not for many many years, been enabling underused european human capital, but importing consumers by financing credit in exchange for drastic declines in human capital as is evidenced in the data.

13 – There is, as I understand it, a relatively long curve between the current technological basis of civilizations, and the next predictable curve which is artificial intelligence, end of oil dependence, and genetic modification. I cannot yet imagine how the economy will organize to produce the same kind of multiples we have been producing since 1830 by the movement of labor from less productive to more, when we will now be in the position of moving labor into less and less productive ends. This means that the bottom has returned to dead weight, and the central problem going forward

14 – The way I predicted the economy when I was in my 30s and 40’s was studying the relationship between technological opportunities that could be seized by consumers and industry, right down to what was on the shelves in big box stores. And then predicting the life cycle those offerings. (I mean, how much better can a video game get?) The reason is that we have spent the past 200 years moving people into the middle class (meaning living in, able to consume in, and to own property, in the market economy.) But what do people have left to consume that is a marginal im provement? NOTHING BUT AESTHETICS AND STATUS SEEKING IDENTITY. Which is precisely what we are seeing. Urbanites using fashion because consumption of middle class goods is no longer status provisioning.

All of these things can be predicted on a series of overlapping curves on a timeline with ‘loose’ accuracy. Once you consider all of those curves at the same time the interplay of dependency becomes fairly obvious, and you can ‘feel’ how the sentiment will evolve. By 2006 I had that set of curves in my head. Which is why I was within 30 days of 2008. (but wrong on china). And I’ve been right about the cycle so far. Trump was a wild card and now i suspect that actions against him will produce movement that accelerates the cycles.

Now am I all that special? no. There was a fairly well known niche movement in the 90’s and 2000s (contrarianism) that was tracking these cycles, and making predictions. I am not really sure why, given that those were correct and that the austrians were correct, why this isn’t still under discussion other than the overwhelming embarrassment of the economic community, and its movement from broad to near predictions, and the current worldwide civil war between globalists and nationalists has taken attention from prediction of long waves, to simply winning the near term battle.Sep 14, 2018 10:54amRakesh SahgalThanks very much for the detailed response .Sep 14, 2018 10:57amDaniel Roland Anderson@[100001606102878:2048:Rakesh Sahgal]

Indeed.

Me too.Sep 14, 2018 11:18amAndrew Gribble@[547889270:2048:Jeff Ganaposki], @[500736842:2048:Frank Pinelander], @[1602607389:2048:Dimitri Pavel Klickovitch], @[100000505951649:2048:Mark Quon]Sep 14, 2018 11:27amRakesh Sahgal@[533929598:2048:Ashish Labh]

@[100009251214736:2048:Manu Agrawal]

@[100025365721499:2048:Samiran Bhale]Sep 14, 2018 11:28amDaniel Roland AndersonI need to mull the consequences of this over.

One possibility: a breakthrough the like of which you haven’t imagined. You mention this actually.

Second: an utter collapse and mess that sets civilization back a thousand years. We’d have to go back to culling the underclass all over again, and depending on the severity of the collapse, the process could take longer than it did last time.

Third: the collapse is relatively non-catastrophic and we manage to separate and leave them with the vast bulk of the national underclass to deal with as they see fit.

What have I left out or included incorrectly @[741197263:2048:Curt]?Sep 14, 2018 11:32amManu AgrawalA financial crisis should start for EMs in 2018 itself, a recovery in 2019 and doom in 2020. I can see lots of money by shorting futures @[100001606102878:2048:Rakesh Sahgal] 😍Sep 14, 2018 11:33amRakesh SahgalThat is more a sub-cycle with in the larger cycle of monetary tightening which is going to be the leitmotif/dominant theme across the next cycle. Even in EMs there will be upswings .

What interests me is the capital flows across borders over the next couple of decades . That will set the overall tone. And that is none too encouraging . And the reason for this is going to be beyond the domain of economics .Sep 14, 2018 11:38amManu AgrawalNature has its own ways to clean up mess, nothing to worrySep 14, 2018 11:41amDaniel Roland AndersonSee @[741197263:2048:Curt]? This is precisely the kind of higher-level thinking I see in your statement that restoring monogamy isn’t possible—but removal of malinscentive is!Sep 14, 2018 11:46amRakesh Sahgal@[572499615:2048:Daniel Roland Anderson] A tweet by Curt on this very subject of incentives/malincentives.Sep 14, 2018 11:48amDaniel Roland AndersonHard to argue with that.Sep 14, 2018 11:55amAndrew ClaytonThe contrarians didn’t stop, everyone just got tired of listening to them. They had great trading advice back then, and I suspect they will again, but in between, you would have lost everything waiting for the worst of them (the dedicated gold bugs) to be right.

I’ve been waiting for the ‘big one’ for years…Sep 14, 2018 4:36pmDaniel Roland Anderson@[669277516:2048:Andrew Clayton]

Right?! I’m too stupid to know when I should listen and when not!

Fuck.Sep 14, 2018 6:23pmHaley HardingThis is spot on

The only area I would criticize is that Moore’s Law doesn’t really matter now due to the advent of GPUs

Nvidia’s GPUs today are 25X faster than five years ago. If they were advancing according to Moore’s Law that would only be a factor of 10. GPGPU is likely the future of computing

That isn’t gonna keep this ship from sinking thoughSep 14, 2018 7:34pmKen JaloonPlease let this happen. I need to reinvest.Sep 15, 2018 10:22amDaniel Roland AndersonHaley Harding

For the tech challenged: GPU as opposed to transistor, or what? I’ll google this as well.Sep 15, 2018 12:39pmJim KosidloSo they’re predicting a Democrat will win?Sep 15, 2018 6:21pmWilliam Viergeverdon’t get cocky kid 😎Sep 16, 2018 9:15pmScott ThroneBefore or after the election? I wonder which bubble they have been building for awhile. They will choose to burst?

Student

Housing (again)

Or some other??

I would guess housing (again). Student loan bubble might not be recoverable…Sep 17, 2018 11:14pmTOLD YA SO. But I said it in 2006

photos_and_videos/TimelinePhotos_SxeO6JU-xg/41665323_10156635057637264_3257693407950143488_o_10156635057627264.jpg TOLD YA SO. But I said it in 2006Plaurent TreskuI say 2022Sep 13, 2018, 8:21 AMSteven JacksonJP Morgan is predicting a crisis or planning one?Sep 13, 2018, 8:28 AMGeorge Perceval Oswald👉🏻😉Sep 13, 2018, 8:29 AMFreyr BjörnssonDid you predict JPMorgan predicting a crisis..? O.OSep 13, 2018, 8:37 AMCorey HarmsComing a little later than originally expected, but it could only be put off for so long. It was inevitable.Sep 13, 2018, 8:40 AMDex RekkerThen again, Peter Schiff has predicted 20 out of the last 2 recessionsSep 13, 2018, 8:43 AMVik Li…what’s the matter when the Feds can just print and paper over it? =PSep 13, 2018, 8:47 AMAndrew Middletonexactly, prophets of economic doom shit meSep 13, 2018, 8:54 AMArman GhaffariThis is too early. It’s intentional.Sep 13, 2018, 10:38 AMVik LiLike ’08?Sep 13, 2018, 11:24 AMArman GhaffariNoSep 13, 2018, 11:34 AMJay Schmitt2020? I’m thinking it’ll start before the end of this year. This is the longest boom period in history.Sep 13, 2018, 12:53 PMCurt Doolittlehard to see that. but it isn’t far off.Sep 13, 2018, 1:06 PMCurt Doolittlecould be. Not sure how it can last that long. very little history to support it.Sep 13, 2018, 1:07 PMArman GhaffariHousing markets are sliding but not busting.Sep 13, 2018, 1:23 PMTaylor SpoonerThey want that blow off topSep 13, 2018, 2:28 PMTaylor SpoonerI used to think it would be this year or early 2019 but now I think they can keep it up much longer maybe as much as another decade after learning about all the currency swaps that are going on behind closed doors.Sep 13, 2018, 2:36 PMRaymond WarnerTo many people locked into 401KsSep 13, 2018, 3:06 PMArman GhaffariThey want to blow up Trump and that is allSep 13, 2018, 3:50 PMAndrew ClaytonCould JPMorgan be signaling to set the stage for QE-infinity? Not sure it will work this time, but the willingness of the hoi polloi to keep dancing to this song can still surprise.Sep 13, 2018, 5:48 PMGlenn KorvneThe sky will fall in 2020 now☺️It was scheduled for last month.Sep 13, 2018, 7:39 PMCurt Doolittledon’t think it will work. Consensus is stimilus not easingSep 13, 2018, 8:05 PMRakesh SahgalCurt, what was the basis of your analysis leading you to conclude a ’20 or thereabouts meltdown ?Sep 14, 2018, 3:21 AMVincent CucchiaraCould this have anything to do with Trump running for reelection?Sep 14, 2018, 8:03 AMDaniel Roland AndersonCurt Doolittle:

You predicted the 2020 crash in 2006, right before the 2008 meltdown?

Could you compare and contrast the 2008 crisis with what you see coming, and perhaps how the 2008 housing crash ties in to 2020?Sep 14, 2018, 8:07 AMDon Lemonatiplease fuck that real estate market up daddySep 14, 2018, 10:41 AMCurt DoolittleRakesh Sahgal, Daniel Roland Anderson

1 – In the end all economics like all politics is and must be demographics. That’s the net of it right there.

2 – World demographics on the adoption of consumer capitalism and the exhaustion of western advantage.

3 – Western demographics, immigration, and rates of dysgenia will tip sufficiently to act as last resort.

4 – Since every generation is a reaction to the generation before it, people behave in predictable cycles.

5 – The long wave of generations means the world war generations are gone and the communist generation is almost gone.

6 – People school and swarm to opportunities until disequlibrium requires adjustment of patterns of sustainable specialization and trade because of a sufficient shock to collapse them. There is a relationship between the capital investment, debt load, remaining debt capacity, AND the discovery, forgetting, and learning curves of humans that is measurable in all walks of human life: we are new people about every three to four years: the time it takes to cognitively rehabituate so that we no longer bear the cognitive load of group adaptation to changing conditions. So there is a fairly fixed rate of adaptation that is a relationship between the degree of capital required for any sector.

7 – The business cycle exists and the austrians are right that they continuously extend if interfered with. This plot (trajectory) is relatively obvious.

8 – Consumers are literally running out of accumulated entertainment capital to consume. They have been for some time. Much of the expansion of the 90s and 2000’s was expansion of homes to keep the economy generating demand, and use of technology to enable increases in the consumption of entertainment. That inventory is exhausted.

9 – The technological curve of monetary policy appears to have been exhausted, and the next choice is not settled in policy as to whether to use direct redistribution to consumers (me, galbraith, mmt folks), or to let the government spend it instead (every left economist there is.)

10 – The technological curve of the transistor’s influence is almost exhausted, as was electricity’s, steam, and water power before it.

11 – organizing people by markets requires marginal differences in capital and the human capital reserves to make use of them. Those reserves are just about exhausted.

12 – low hanging fruit of hydrocarbons exploitation has been exhausted; movement of labor has been exhausted; the clerical automation is close to exhausted, and the financialization has led to fragility dependent on hyperconsumption, but consumption of what? We are no longer, and have not for many many years, been enabling underused european human capital, but importing consumers by financing credit in exchange for drastic declines in human capital as is evidenced in the data.

13 – There is, as I understand it, a relatively long curve between the current technological basis of civilizations, and the next predictable curve which is artificial intelligence, end of oil dependence, and genetic modification. I cannot yet imagine how the economy will organize to produce the same kind of multiples we have been producing since 1830 by the movement of labor from less productive to more, when we will now be in the position of moving labor into less and less productive ends. This means that the bottom has returned to dead weight, and the central problem going forward

14 – The way I predicted the economy when I was in my 30s and 40’s was studying the relationship between technological opportunities that could be seized by consumers and industry, right down to what was on the shelves in big box stores. And then predicting the life cycle those offerings. (I mean, how much better can a video game get?) The reason is that we have spent the past 200 years moving people into the middle class (meaning living in, able to consume in, and to own property, in the market economy.) But what do people have left to consume that is a marginal im provement? NOTHING BUT AESTHETICS AND STATUS SEEKING IDENTITY. Which is precisely what we are seeing. Urbanites using fashion because consumption of middle class goods is no longer status provisioning.

All of these things can be predicted on a series of overlapping curves on a timeline with ‘loose’ accuracy. Once you consider all of those curves at the same time the interplay of dependency becomes fairly obvious, and you can ‘feel’ how the sentiment will evolve. By 2006 I had that set of curves in my head. Which is why I was within 30 days of 2008. (but wrong on china). And I’ve been right about the cycle so far. Trump was a wild card and now i suspect that actions against him will produce movement that accelerates the cycles.

Now am I all that special? no. There was a fairly well known niche movement in the 90’s and 2000s (contrarianism) that was tracking these cycles, and making predictions. I am not really sure why, given that those were correct and that the austrians were correct, why this isn’t still under discussion other than the overwhelming embarrassment of the economic community, and its movement from broad to near predictions, and the current worldwide civil war between globalists and nationalists has taken attention from prediction of long waves, to simply winning the near term battle.Sep 14, 2018, 10:54 AMRakesh SahgalThanks very much for the detailed response .Sep 14, 2018, 10:57 AMDaniel Roland AndersonRakesh Sahgal

Indeed.

Me too.Sep 14, 2018, 11:18 AMAndrew GribbleJeff Ganaposki, Frank Pinelander, Dimitri Pavel Klickovitch, Mark QuonSep 14, 2018, 11:27 AMRakesh SahgalAshish Labh

Manu Agrawal

Samiran BhaleSep 14, 2018, 11:28 AMDaniel Roland AndersonI need to mull the consequences of this over.

One possibility: a breakthrough the like of which you haven’t imagined. You mention this actually.

Second: an utter collapse and mess that sets civilization back a thousand years. We’d have to go back to culling the underclass all over again, and depending on the severity of the collapse, the process could take longer than it did last time.

Third: the collapse is relatively non-catastrophic and we manage to separate and leave them with the vast bulk of the national underclass to deal with as they see fit.

What have I left out or included incorrectly Curt?Sep 14, 2018, 11:32 AMManu AgrawalA financial crisis should start for EMs in 2018 itself, a recovery in 2019 and doom in 2020. I can see lots of money by shorting futures Rakesh Sahgal 😍Sep 14, 2018, 11:33 AMRakesh SahgalThat is more a sub-cycle with in the larger cycle of monetary tightening which is going to be the leitmotif/dominant theme across the next cycle. Even in EMs there will be upswings .

What interests me is the capital flows across borders over the next couple of decades . That will set the overall tone. And that is none too encouraging . And the reason for this is going to be beyond the domain of economics .Sep 14, 2018, 11:38 AMManu AgrawalNature has its own ways to clean up mess, nothing to worrySep 14, 2018, 11:41 AMDaniel Roland AndersonSee Curt? This is precisely the kind of higher-level thinking I see in your statement that restoring monogamy isn’t possible—but removal of malinscentive is!Sep 14, 2018, 11:46 AMRakesh SahgalDaniel Roland Anderson A tweet by Curt on this very subject of incentives/malincentives.Sep 14, 2018, 11:48 AMDaniel Roland AndersonHard to argue with that.Sep 14, 2018, 11:55 AMAndrew ClaytonThe contrarians didn’t stop, everyone just got tired of listening to them. They had great trading advice back then, and I suspect they will again, but in between, you would have lost everything waiting for the worst of them (the dedicated gold bugs) to be right.

I’ve been waiting for the ‘big one’ for years…Sep 14, 2018, 4:36 PMDaniel Roland AndersonAndrew Clayton

Right?! I’m too stupid to know when I should listen and when not!

Fuck.Sep 14, 2018, 6:23 PMHaley HardingThis is spot on

The only area I would criticize is that Moore’s Law doesn’t really matter now due to the advent of GPUs

Nvidia’s GPUs today are 25X faster than five years ago. If they were advancing according to Moore’s Law that would only be a factor of 10. GPGPU is likely the future of computing

That isn’t gonna keep this ship from sinking thoughSep 14, 2018, 7:34 PMKen JalPlease let this happen. I need to reinvest.Sep 15, 2018, 10:22 AMDaniel Roland AndersonHaley Harding

For the tech challenged: GPU as opposed to transistor, or what? I’ll google this as well.Sep 15, 2018, 12:39 PMJim KosidloSo they’re predicting a Democrat will win?Sep 15, 2018, 6:21 PMWilliam Viergeverdon’t get cocky kid 😎Sep 16, 2018, 9:15 PMScott ThroneBefore or after the election? I wonder which bubble they have been building for awhile. They will choose to burst?

Student

Housing (again)

Or some other??

I would guess housing (again). Student loan bubble might not be recoverable…Sep 17, 2018, 11:14 PMTOLD YA SO. But I said it in 2006