Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

  • CURT WHY DO YOU ATTRIBUTE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE TO KEYNES AND RAWLS? Great Question

    CURT WHY DO YOU ATTRIBUTE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE TO KEYNES AND RAWLS?
    Great Question:

    TLDR; The Conversion of economics from the science of cooperation over the long term (capitalization) to the science of manipulation of the public in the short term (consumption) – under the presumption that the industrial revolution and it’s consequences had produced a horn of plenty that would lead to eternal growth.

    Context: I was educated in science, engineering, computer science, economics, and law. So I have an engineers perspective on problems in social science.

    As such I have maintained a foundation in the Austrian school of economics as the study of economic science, compatible with the empiricism of western common law, and concurrent legislation, with a cautious acceptance for the Chicago “freshwater” school which seeks to insure economies and facilitate the production of such commons as education, and a disdain for the Keynesian, New York, “saltwater” school of economics, that seeks to maximize consumption and debt at the consequence of cumulative risks: kicking the can down the road. These three fields all claim the title of economics but they are instead economics, it’s insurance against shocks, and it’s manipulation.

    Now, that said, in economics I consider Keynes (as did my mentor Hayek) a disaster for economics and policy, and

    I consider John Rawls a disaster for both law legislation and economic policy – because it is their collective efforts that have brought about the present economic crisis in the west: their pretense of endless growth and endless risk, has come to roost.

    So, my critiques of Keynes and Rawls emphasizes their roles in baiting ignorant legislators and willing financiers into economic and legal policies that have led to unsustainable growth, increased debt, and extraordinary economic risks.

    CRITIQUE OF JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES:

    Short-term focus: Keynes advocated for government intervention and increased spending to stimulate economic growth during recessions. However, critics argue that this short-term focus on boosting consumption and aggregate demand neglects the long-term consequences of accumulating debt and the potential for creating economic bubbles.

    Disregard for savings and investment: The Keynesian approach often involves lowering interest rates to encourage borrowing and discourage saving. This can lead to a misallocation of resources, as the artificially low cost of capital may encourage investments in projects that are not economically viable in the long run.

    Inflation and currency devaluation: Keynesian policies, such as expansionary monetary policy and deficit spending, can lead to inflation and currency devaluation over time. This erodes the purchasing power of money, disproportionately affecting savers and those on fixed incomes.

    Crowding out of private investment: When governments borrow heavily to finance spending, they compete with the private sector for available funds. This can lead to higher interest rates and reduced private investment, hindering long-term economic growth.

    Ignoring the role of prices: Keynesian economics often focuses on aggregate demand and overlooks the crucial role of prices in allocating resources efficiently. This can result in market distortions and a misallocation of resources.

    CRITIQUE OF JOHN RAWLS:

    Disregard for individual rights and property: Rawls’ “veil of ignorance” and “difference principle” prioritize redistributive policies over individual rights and property ownership. This can undermine incentives for innovation, risk-taking, and wealth creation.

    Encouragement of rent-seeking behavior: Rawls’ focus on redistribution can encourage rent-seeking behavior, where individuals and groups lobby for special privileges and transfers rather than engaging in productive economic activities.

    Centralized decision-making: The implementation of Rawlsian principles often involves centralized decision-making and government intervention, which can lead to inefficiencies, unintended consequences, and the concentration of power in the hands of a few.

    Disregard for the knowledge problem: Rawls’ theory assumes that a central authority can gather and process all the necessary information to make optimal redistributive decisions. However, this ignores the inherent complexity of economic systems and the dispersed nature of knowledge, as highlighted by the Austrian school.

    Conflict with the rule of law: Rawls’ emphasis on redistributive justice can come into conflict with the principles of the rule of law, such as generality, predictability, and equal treatment. This can lead to arbitrary and discriminatory policies.

    In summary, my criticism of Keynes and Rawls emphasizes their role in promoting short-term thinking, unsustainable policies, and the erosion of individual rights and market efficiency.

    They are the innovators and justificationists of policies whose short term goals produced unintended consequences and long-term risks associated with their ideas, which are seen as contributing factors to the current economic crisis in the West.

    Reply addressees: @cowcow8237465


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:19:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783984320111079424

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783975871272927609

  • Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while ackn

    Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while acknowledging that all inflation ends up in housing prices and promissory (investment) assets, and all of which correct at some time (ie: the austrians were correct int hat you can’t kick the can down the road forever). Yet it is almost impossible to see world assets flee under stress to any other political system, because the US (and UK) are the only governments that protect investments even at cost with rigorous legal systems.
    1 – world conflict will cause evaporation of inflated asset prices. (Increasingly likely.)
    2 – the demographic production and capital production collapse we entered two or three years ago, will cause deflation of asset prices (increasingly likely)
    3 – We will experience the ‘two decade depression’ that will gradually vaporize those assets in concert with the above events.
    4 – We will continue the ‘managed decline’ with the fed doing all it can to flatten it as much as possible, until we are as poor as europeans today (by comparison) and europeans will be poorer than they are today by comparison.
    5 – Sometime after that the public insurance sector, incluiding medical and retirement will bottom out.
    6 – But I’m still on the side of ‘all of the above plus a civil war’ because that’s sure what it looks like to me.

    So it’s possible that any one of those or all of those could happen. Without population growth, the decline of taxation to allow it, and the restructuring of the economy to reduce relative costs (now out of control) I don’t see any way to produce prosperity by the acceleration of consumption that we have in the past.

    Reply addressees: @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 20:45:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783960663347359744

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783938283858178284

  • Hmm. Yes of course. However, an increasing number, and in the near future a vast

    Hmm. Yes of course. However, an increasing number, and in the near future a vastly increasing number will be left behind on the margin as we pass the tipping point between increasing human productivity and the cost of human existence within that system of productivity, We are already at the point where more than 15% are effectively incapable of self sustainability in the current degree of development. I expect this number to pass twenty, then twenty five. Had the eugenicists not been overthrown by the excesses of the Nazis we might have controlled it. But even dreams of UBI are fantasies as this equilibrium continues to decrease the margins.

    Reply addressees: @Nico_Macdonald @HumanProgress @mattwridley


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 04:17:19 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783711933692104704

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783709681271116027

  • This doesn’t mean what you think it does. The baseline for survival has increase

    This doesn’t mean what you think it does. The baseline for survival has increased as much as has productivity. Ie: You can’t live on subsistence farming today. So I tend to interpret these claims as dishonest to ignorant, to conflict generating ideological fraud.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 03:51:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783705482852528498

    Reply addressees: @HumanProgress @mattwridley

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783398288592425055

  • MEANINGFUL NEW YEAR DATA DEBTIFICATION #3 Global stocks have increased in value

    MEANINGFUL NEW YEAR DATA

    DEBTIFICATION

    #3 Global stocks have increased in value by more than 25 trillion dollars over the past 10 years.

    #4 In the United States, 84 percent of all stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of all Americans.

    #5 The U.S. government is now more than 23 trillion dollars in debt.

    #12 Total U.S. household debt is about to cross the 14 trillion dollar mark.

    FINANCIALIZATION

    #13 A study that was recently released found that 70 percent of all Americans are struggling financially right now.

    #14 The average family in the United States cannot afford to buy a home in 71 percent of the country.

    #15 58 million jobs in the United States pay less than $793 a week.

    #16 According to the Social Security Administration, 50 percent of all Americans make less than $33,000 a year.

    #17 63 percent of the jobs that have been created in the United States since 1990 have been low wage jobs.

    #42 Almost one-third of all U.S. Millennials are still living with their parents.

    DESOCIALIZATION

    #27 Over the past decade, the suicide rate among young Americans has risen by 56 percent.

    #28 The suicide rate for the overall population increased by 41 percent between 1999 and 2016.

    IDIOCRACY

    #29 One survey has discovered that 15-year-old students in China are almost four full grade levels ahead of 15-year-old students in the United States in mathematics.

    #30 A different survey discovered that one-third of all American teenagers haven’t read a single book in the past year.

    FORNICATION

    #33 23 percent of all U.S. children live with a single parent. That is the highest rate in the entire world by a wide margin.

    #34 Today, approximately 40 percent of all babies in America are born to unmarried women.

    #35 The U.S. fertility rate has fallen 15 percent since 2007 and is now at the lowest level ever recorded.

    CALIFORNICATED

    #38 Today, almost half of all homeless people in the entire nation live in the state of California.

    #39 Over half of all California voters have considered leaving the state.

    DECIVILIZATION

    #40 According to an American Bar Association survey, only 38 percent of all Americans know that the U.S. Constitution is the highest law in the land.

    #41 58 percent of American adults under the age of 35 agree that some version of socialism “would be good for the country”.

    #43 According to the Pew Research Center, only 65 percent of Americans now consider themselves to be Christians. That is the lowest level ever recorded.

    #49 A survey that was conducted a couple of months ago found that 67 percent of all Americans believe that we are “on the edge of civil war”.

    RESTORATION

    #51 A majority of Propertarians believe they can solve these problems by reorganizing society with their new constitution.

    See what I did there? 😉



    Source: Michael Snyder from The Economic Collapse Blog


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-01 09:19:00 UTC

  • Is nearly all of philosophy then, outside of logic, an artful construct for the

    Is nearly all of philosophy then, outside of logic, an artful construct for the purpose of justifying theft?

    One can justify suppression of, prevention of, and restitution for, the taking of discounts. (thefts)

    One can justify the selection of one priority of investment over another. But one cannot argue for the necessity of a monopoly of investments. Nor the mandatory enforcement of participation in investments, other than the suppression of free riding.

    One can argue the necessity for a homogeneity – monopoly – of property rights for the purpose of logically resolving disputes over property and contract – albeit, private property solves that problem, and articulated shareholder rights, retains that ability even under complexity.

    But once a monopoly of property rights exists, one cannot argue the necessity for a monopoly of law making. In fact, logic and evidence suggest precisely the opposite is true: that laws evolve and evolve best under the common law, since they must be interpreted by ordinary citizens, and are open to constant revision without external approval as the world evolves.

    The failure of the common law was (a) its usurpation by the state, and (b) failure to define property rights sufficiently in the face of industrialization. (c) its use by the middle class to dispossess the aristocracy, and consequential use by the proletarians and feminists to dispossess the middle classes.

    Philosophy is quite simple really. It’s only complicated if you’re trying to lie. And theft requires lying. And lying is best covered by obscurity.

    Cheers.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-01-01 15:58:00 UTC

  • THE NECESSARY PROPERTIES OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION (draft of the correction of a p

    THE NECESSARY PROPERTIES OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION

    (draft of the correction of a priorism in economics, politics and ethics.) (important)

    Exchanges are unique. Every one. Marginalism alone renders all exchanges unique – even before we consider the uneven distribution of resources and ability, and the vagaries of nature, and the shifting wants and signals of human beings.

    As such, each exchange is unique, and even aggregate measures of inputs, operations and outputs in similar exchanges are dependent upon Patterns of Sustainable Specialization and Trade; which while sticky, are no guarantee of future exchanges under similar conditions. Constancy is an illusion. Businesses continuously adjust to conditions. So, no relations are constant in economics, even if in the aggregate, in short time periods, they appear so.

    If no relations are constant in economics, that means that we cannot organize production on the assumption of constant relations. This criticism stands alone, even prior to either the problem of calculation without money and prices, or the problem of incentives independent of rewards.

    However, we cannot organize any form of production under the assumption of constant relations without the incentives of multitudinous individuals to produce.

    This is the correct criticism of the socialist method of production.

    1) calculation

    2) inconstancy of relations

    3) impossibility of organization

    4) impossibility of incentives.

    The reason capitalists and executives of all kinds cost more than labor and are rewarded more than labor, is because labor has little to no value in production; and what value it has in production, constantly decreases with mechanization. So, the problem remains how to organize labor whether human, computational or mechanical.

    And while we might argue that middle management has very little value in the organization of labor, organizing the production of goods using labor, using prices and payments as rules, limits and incentives, is the highest contribution to the value of the goods, since the alignment of incentives – what we call ‘execution’ : organizing humans into production – is the art.

    And that is the scarcity that the market rewards.

    THE PROBLEM OF THE A PRIORI ARGUMENT

    If there are no constant relations in economics, but mathematics is the logic of constant relations, and further we attempt to use mathematics to justify intervention in the market for goods and services, then doing is logically impossible. The logical of constant relations, entirely dependent upon constant categories, cannot be used to describe economic conditions and apply them to the future. All we can do with mathematics is mine the recent data for descriptions of what has happened in the existing patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.

    So, if the socialist method of production was impossible, and measurement of the economy at all but the aggregate level is impossible, and measurement at the aggregate level does not capture changes in human, social and moral capital, then it becomes very difficult to suggest that governments can do much except (a) limited trade policy, (b) limited industrial policy, and (c) limited education and health policy (d) defend the rule of law and the common law (e) provide a means for the resolution of disputes.

    Thus, the prior generations argued that we must both not supplant the market means of dynamically organizing unique instances of production, nor interfere with it, and that we may only rely upon deduction and guesswork, and simply leave the market alone.

    However, this is either mistaken – or it is ill said. We can deduce almost nothing of consequence from human action.

    First, we can however, TEST any set of statements to determine whether they are rational and what incentives that they produce. But we cannot deduce much of anything at all – we can only test statements and hypotheses to determine likely human action.

    Second, when we understand that the problem of production is not labor, nor resources, but ORGANIZING production, what we can do is increasingly expand the means by which groups can cooperate on disparate means.

    The most effective way to assist groups in cooperating on means, even if they have disparate or even irreconcilable ends, which we cannot choose between because of the inability to forecast into a kaleidic future, other than value inferences we obtain from existing patterns of specialization and trade, is to suppress all risks OTHER than those of forecasting.

    Namely, the suppression of ‘discounts’. Then more discounts we suppress, the more human action that must be pressed into the market for goods and services, entirely upon the price, quality and distribution of those goods in time. (And independent of schemes.)

    So, if we understand that the production we organize, is the ability for others to frictionlessly organize production, in a world of constant invention and change, it is not entirely true that we can take little action. It is not the production of goods and services that we assist in producing with our governments, but it is the rules by which we dynamically organize production by the suppression of all discounts, everywhere, such than the only possible actions that remain, are to take risks on one’s forecast of the future within one’s patterns of specialization and trade.

    RATHER THAN THE A PRIORI ERROR – WE STATE THIS INSTEAD:

    Economics then, consists of:

    The near universal human ability to test rationality of incentives.

    The near universal human desire to seek discounts.

    The use of organized violence to suppress all discounts.

    The resulting pressure of all human action into the market.

    The construction of institutions to suppress discounting.

    The use of empirical measures to gain short term insight into the patterns of trade.

    The use of such information to inform participants in the ongoing adjustment of such patterns.

    Institutions required are:

    1) Articulated Property Rights and Obligations.

    2) The common law.

    3) An independent Judiciary.

    4) Universal standing so that any individual can seek restitution from any other individual for taking discounts, no matter what the accused’s function in society.

    5) A body of people with the ability to construct contracts on behalf of larger groups, to produce goods that the market cannot organize to produce because of arbitrariness of the choices, or the openness of such contractual investments to free riding, privatization, and socialization or other discounts.

    6) A means for the collection of dividends and choosing between the expenditure on further investments and distribution of proceeds to shareholders.

    We do not need much government. What government we do need, need not be a monopoly. What investments we need need not be decided by majority rule – a monopoly. And those services and goods we need, need not be provided by a monopoly bureaucracy.

    Even if it may be true that the INITIAL CONSTRUCTION of property rights requires the imposition of a monopoly of those rights, and a total prohibition on discounts, that is the limit of such a monopoly. Which is why corporations of separate interests in creating such a system is superior to monopoly of interests in creating such a system, since no member of such a polycentric order would tolerate the usurpation of his rights by another.

    Such a government is a government of unbreakable rules which we call ‘laws’, not a government of people with capacity for decision making, or coercion, or the ability to make laws.

    And our defense against that monopoly government and all forms of abuse, is the training of a near-priesthood called judges who adjudicate differences according to private property rights, and the voluntary agreements that we enter into, and the prohibitions against free riding on the goods produced by those agreements we chose NOT to enter into.

    And to construct as such, that those judges possess only the incentives to use those laws in the fulfillment of their roles.

    We can reduce all of this to the simple assertion, that no man can know the future sufficiently to force others to obey his direction on the use of their minds, bodies, time and property. However, it is quite possible for each of us to judge incentives and for men with training to judge whether property rights were respected or not.

    That is all we need.


    Source date (UTC): 2014-01-01 15:55:00 UTC

  • THE DAMAGE OF WISHES Just reading through todays activity in economics and pieci

    THE DAMAGE OF WISHES

    Just reading through todays activity in economics and piecing together the not obvious fact that our paper of record forms public opinion but is that illusion differs substantially from BBC, Al Jazeera, Russian and Chinese sources more than those sources differ from one another.

    Cowen asks a question about Haiti, and the NYT bias is obvious. But the ideology of wishful thinking bears no resemblance to the reality if Haiti: we have only made it worse. Just like most of what we do makes everything worse.

    Ideological rag.

    The WSJ is the only domestic paper of record that has any correlation with reality. And even that is iffy.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-07-28 16:42:00 UTC