—“As an historian who had been studying insurgencies for over 50 years I knew the key question was not the current number of activists but the size of the recruiting pool. “How many people are potential recruits?”
“Oh, about 3 to 5 percent of Islam,” a CIA analyst responded.
“That would be 39 million to 65 million people,” I replied.
Every analyst in the room nodded yes and smiled. That was what they had been trying to tell the Bush White House, they said. No one would listen.
This was the moment in the movie Jaws where the police chief says “We’re going to need a bigger boat.””—
WHEN ESTIMATING THE POWER OF REBELLIONS OR TERRORISTS THE QUESTION IS THE SIZE OF THE RECRUITING POOL, NOT THE ACTIVE NUMBER OF MEMBERS
If we mobilized 3-5% of american males, that would be 15m total, with a distribution of young in the lower third – maybe 3-5M.
That puts the scale in perspective. We are outnumbered by ten to one.
Source date (UTC): 2015-01-11 06:58:00 UTC