Category: AI, Computation, and Technology

DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS
(CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the predictable economic and political consequences, with the political being the most risky, but I can’t really comment on the viability of these predictions. That said, even if they’re a bit early they don’t seem far off to me.)
David’s Predictions:
1. 2024 AGI THIS YEAR? Given the size and rumors about GPT5 Expect AGI This Year. Nvidia’s foundation agent models – every modality including embodiment, spatial, math. Robots that are already in the uncanny valley.
The next Gartner hype cycle will be profound and then it will wear off… until the job losses start.
2. 2025 will see the limited commercial takeoff of AGI.
3. 2026 Kurzweil thinks ASI … Then we see unemployment creep up. Everyone across the economic and financial spectrum is saying the same thing: these things are going to fundamentally reshape our economic landscape and our relations to job and work.
4. 2027 About when project Stargate will take off ($100B data centers in the desert), we’ll see the scale effects. We’ll need energy capacity (solar, nuclear). Constraints are (a) data and (b) chips. A lot of data is not useful (good) so we’re going to need new theories of categorizing the quality of data and information.
5. 2028 All competitors will be online by this time. SO it’s impossible to forecast that future given the rate of evolution of the tech, and the number …
We are going to see another confluence of multiple techs producing another ‘iphone moment’ so to speak.
Top contenders: boston dynamics(Robots), openai(Software), nvidia(Hardware/Chips). (CD: IMO tesla)
https://t.co/150GSV2Y8H

DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS
(CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the predictable economic and political consequences, with the political being the most risky, but I can’t really comment on the viability of these predictions but even if they’re a bit early they don’t seem far off to me.)
David’s Predictions:
1. 2024 AGI THIS YEAR? Given the size and rumors about GPT5 Expect AGI This Year. Nvidia’s foundation agent models – every modality including embodiment, spatial, math. Robots that are already in the uncanny valley.
The next Gartner hype cycle will be profound and then it will wear off… until the job losses start.
2. 2025 will see the limited commercial takeoff of AGI.
3. 2026 Kurzweil thinks ASI … Then we see unemployment creep up. Everyone across the economic and financial spectrum is saying the same thing: these things are going to fundamentally reshape our economic landscape and our relations to job and work.
4. 2027 About when project Stargate will take off ($100B data centers in the desert), we’ll see the scale effects. We’ll need energy capacity (solar, nuclear). Constraints are (a) data and (b) chips. A lot of data is not useful (good) so we’re going to need new theories of categorizing the quality of data and information.
5. 2028 All competitors will be online by this time. SO it’s impossible to forecast that future given the rate of evolution of the tech, and the number …
We are going to see another confluence of multiple techs producing another ‘iphone moment’ so to speak.
Top contenders: boston dynamics(Robots), openai(Software), nvidia(Hardware/Chips). (CD: IMO tesla)
https://t.co/150GSV2Y8H