Author: Curt Doolittle

  • Why Are So Many Equatorial Nations ‘Failed States’?

    This posting is in response to “Postcards From Hell: Images fom the world’s most failed states” and commentary on The Agitator. Why are so many equatorial nations ‘Failed States’? “All happy families are the same. All unhappy families are different.” Which means that a lot of things go into making a successful state, and there are a number of reasons why successful advanced cultures develop. And if any one of them goes wrong, a state can fail. Although it will most likely be conquered once it has failed. And there is one particular reason why most of the failed states are currently failing: the legacy of colonialism. But let’s look at the reasons why cultures progress differently: 1) disease gradients are higher (safer) in the cold and lower in the warm. 2) physical effort is difficult in hot weather, which hampers the creation of built capital. (Core body temp also affects IQ during exertion) 3) Agrarian cycles in the north encourage cottage industry in winter, farming in spring and fall and war in summer. This creates certain social orders that foster human, built and technical capital accumulation. Compare to the brutal survival farming of the Chinese and their rice. 4) Rivers and sea: rivers in particular provide safe, easy and low cost product transport. The opposite is true: some areas are simply geographically resistant to trade. Europe is gifted with east-west rivers. 5) Unequal distribution of terrain, water, useful plants and animals favors certain regions in agrarian productivity. Mineral deposits favor certain technologies (europe, coal, wood and iron.) 6) Access to trade means access to knowledge, and greater availability of resources and technology. This increases the probability of innovation, and the development of ‘virtues’ as we understand our commercial and moral code. 7) The abstract thing we refer to as social order, that is embodied in accumulated traditions and habits, are the most important and expensive forms of human capital. These habits facilitate the unspoken normative goals of all social and economic cooperation and coordination. We pay for social institutions by forgoing opportunity: the set of things that we don’t do: the opportunities we do not seize. We pay for infrastructure and governance with the results of trade made possible by those forgone opportunities. These institutions include our different definitions of public and private property, manners, ethics, morals and rituals. Manners, ethics and morals are economic codes just as are written laws, most of which, in all of human history, proscribed punishments for violations of manners, ethics and morals. (A vast oversimplification, but an informative one.) 8) The availability of general technical knowledge (how to craft things) and general systemic knowledge (how the natural world operates). We often confuse education with practical knowledge and scientific knowledge. ( The Muslim world is full of Islamic studies which do nothing except perpetuate ignorance. Some of the sub Saharan world is still in the embrace of magical thinking.) Commercial apprenticeship and on the job learning, not education, (imitation of practice) is the primary means of knowledge transfer. Most knowledge (in the USA as well) is political or secular-theocratic rather than useful knowledge. This is the reason the comparative ignorance of our working classes compared to that of europeans. 9) Concordant technologies. Civilizations need to accumulate a greatdeal of human capital by adopting certain technologies before they can adopt others, else these technologies are not disruptive, and do not increase the division of knowledge and labor. Otherwise tyrants simply use it to institutionalize corruption and profiteering. This isn’t any different from children but on a larger scale. If people do not forgo the opportunity to misuse a technology, they will never be able to gain its productive benefits. You don’t give a child a gun. 10) social orders. The west was built by fraternal orders of city/market joint stockholders, partly because of the high cost of equipment and training. This is the source of our republican sentiments, as well as our tools of argument,reason and science. Other societies have not been so lucky. East asia is largely historically oriented. The northern-west is largely future oriented, the greek, greco (southern) italian and eastern block Mediterranean is largely present oriented, and the near east and Indian continent are magically (‘spiritually’) oriented. Social classes have different time preferences, with the highest classes most future oriented, and the lowest classes most present oriented. 11) Political Institutions: what we call ‘rule of law’ is probably the most important for a market economy – because it permits creative disruption and speculation. But more importantly, it requires the ability to concentrate enough power that the political elite can suppress violence in a geography well enough that people can accumulate capital and trade can develop. If trade can develop productivity can increase, and eventually enough extra production can develop that there is something to redistribute to people, first for the purpose of increasing their productivity, and second for increasing the quality of their lives. We avoid discussing the reality of violence, but without the ability to project violence there is no ‘state’. Because that’s what a state is: a territorial monopoly on violence that forces people to use either the market (good) or to become the victims of exploitative totalitarianism (bad). Now we get to how westerners condemned some cultures: 1) Creating political boundaries and political systems across tribes destroys their ability to create human capital because this uncertainty over-stimulates the need for group persistence and impedes the development of market friendly habits. Thievery and tribal banditry is much easier and cheaper than creating trade and infrastructure. Even today, there is no small sentiment among males that suggests civilization has limited their potential access to mates, and their potential joy, by suppressing their desire for tribal banditry. In certain areas of the globe (in which the USA is fighting) tribal banditry is the primary means of status achievement. And the alternative is the grinding poverty of subsistence farming in an arid landscape. Progress is not always as desirable as it may seem. 2) Colonialism under England was effective in creating stability. In fact the hallmark of the Anglo model is stability. In the entire anglo civilization. In the anglo colonies as well. Stability fosters the accumulation of all forms of capital. If you were colonized by someone else, then you will suffer for it. If you were colonized by the french in particular you will have suffered for it. Anglo social technology is as important as the development of Greek science and reason. That technology, unbenknownst to most of us, is the development of abstract principles that allow calculation and coordination. (Even law is a form of mathematics or calculation. This is a very complex topic for this forum so I’ll leave it at that.). French colonies are a disaster. In fact, the unspoken question is, why were some cultures able to be colonized? It was possible to do terrible things to China via trade, but not to colonize it. And while even the Japanese conquered china, they could not hold or colonize it. 3) Economic interference, and in particular interference by way of charity. This is a hotly debated problem. But individual and local assistance by devoted people seems to make a difference, while insertion of capital is extremely harmful to developing economies that must transform from tribal to market economies. Why we understand that socialism is devastating to economies yet we interfere with primitive and less flexible economies with much less capital, is a mystery of western behavior. Unpleasant realities : 1) Mystical Religion: Unfortunately, there are also ways to manufacture ignorance. Some religions are regressive. In fact it could be reasonably argued that many are simply dangerous. Some have argued that they all are dangerous. The reason one is out gunned out germed and out steeled, so to speak, is a function of a culture’s willingness to adapt disruptive technologies. Luddites perish. Most of the scriptural religions are Luddite systems of thought. 2) The Problem Of IQ: Despite the objections of the inequality-deniers, the one factual reality that the vast body of people will fail to accept in the face of overwhelming objective scientific evidence: that IQ’s are unequally distributed in different races — and in clases within those races. 3) The Problem of Status and Racism: All people are racist in that they prefer acting within and with their race. And this will never change simply because of man’s need to learn, his learning by imitation, and his desire to learn from those he most easily can imitate, and his need to identify WHO to imitate. And the consequential need for visible evidence of status in order to choose who to imitate. Status is a necessary epistemological property of human existence. We cannot exist without it. 4) Mate Selection: The hard reality is that women are hypergamic (marry up). This reality is made more complex because men have a wider IQ variance than women, who are more centered around the mean. This situations presents men with the need to compete for mate selection, while women are increasingly selective about their mates, until they reach a point of either opportunity or resignation. (ie: more women are forced to ‘settle’ than are men.) Furthermore, this status economy requires a diverse range of status symbols within each race and class that inform the eternal search for demonstrable differences in status. Furthermore, this means that within races and within classes, except at the margins, greater status is available WITHIN race than without, and therefore people are incentivized to prefer to act and associate within their races. Racism is as permanent as is classism. The dirty secret of the human genome project is that class is genetically determinant. While economic classes are semi randomly plastic, social classes (which are readily evidenced in the postings on this and other blogs) are decidedly inelastic. (spoken as a member of the upper middle class). Furthermore IQs are different in consequence between groups. A white, Jew or east Asian with a 60 IQ is perceptibly broken. A sub saharan African is not – he or she just has a higher barrier to the learning of abstractions. But otherwise is perceptibly healthy. And IQ distributions affect what can be invented, what can be produced, and what can be maintained in a society. In general, To maintain machines requires an IQ of at least 105. To get a liberal education requires an IQ of 110. To design machines requires an IQ of at least 122 . To design abstractions requires an IQ above 130. To innovate upon a system of thought requires, it appears, an IQ above 140. Everyone else simply uses the tools created by others. It is demonstrably true that the top quintile has more influence on productivity of the society than all the rest combined. And it is the number of people with these IQ’s in the population who are educated enough to employ them, in a society with sufficient capital and division of knowledge and labor to make use of their talents. (For this reason, a capitalist china should rule the world in productivity simply because they have so many people above the mechanical threshold, and so much of the population can participate in complex production.) Since all societies are run by minority elites (even ours) the composition of elites in government, speculative intelligence and innovation in the middle classes, and capable mechanics in the proletariat determine the competitive rates of innovation and change in a society. Despite Racial, national, and class differences in IQ distribution, it does not take a genius to run a market economy. As our pliticians demonstrate daily. What is important is that in any sufficiently large body of people exist sufficient numbers to adopt the rule of law, the institutions of trade, and some form of capital production. The problem is one of numbers: getting the barbarians and potential corrupt bureaucrats to forgo opportunities for personal gain in order to fund the development of their human capital. The problem of coordinating production in a division of knowledge and labor requires a great deal of sacrifice. It is the is a sufficient set of principles govern the progress and adaptability of cultures. As other readers have commented, colonialism is perhaps the greatest determinant today of the relative state of failed nations. I hope this was helpful in providing food for thought.

  • Who Was Hayek, What Are Austrians, And Why Should I Care? (In 1500 Words)

    On Old School Economics, someone asks:

    Can anyone summarize the basic tenets of this school of economics and what are Hayeks contributions? I’ve been looking all over the place and have found some websites that are a bit confusing so if you could make a list, it would be helpful.

    Hayek is one of a line of Austrian thinkers. The term ‘Austrians’ was originally, like ‘capitalism’, derogatory: meaning essentially ‘those quaint hicks’. Austrianism is a micro-economic (versus macro), rhetorical (versus mathematical), approach to political science and economic theory. This approach suggests that we can analyze the behavior of individuals in economic affairs and from that deduce the best macro policy. It assumes (Like all systems of natural law) that people are not terribly plastic, and that they will ‘always act as humans with self interest’ and that we should enact policies that work in tandem with human behavior rather than trying to change human behavior.

    [callout] The Austrians used insights gained from calculus (the relative movement of bodies) to create the principle of ‘Marginal Utility’ (wherein each unit of a group of resources changes in value to the owner as they are sold) and the ‘Subjective Theory Of Value’, wherein the value of an object is in what others will pay for it, thus explaining the essentially speculative, and therefore unsettling, nature of capitalism. [/callout]

    Historically, the Austrian school is a German reaction to the English school’s theory of value. The English (and then marxist) schools, embraced the Labor Theory Of Value, wherein the value of an object has to do with what work went into it. The Austrians used insights gained from calculus (relative movement of bodies) to create the principle of ‘Marginal Utility’ (wherein each unit of a group of resources changes in value to the owner as they are sold) and the ‘Subjective Theory Of Value’, wherein the value of an object is in what others will pay for it, thus explaining the essentially speculative, and therefore unsettling, nature of capitalism. This theory created a much more complex world of things for economists to measure: if all values are subjective, and if each unit of a resource has a different value, then the world consists of an infinite number of unique objects whose value cannot be known until it is sold, and our attempts to measure them in real time are limited to our ability to make wide generalizations and averages about the economy. After these initial insights, Austrians also contributed to theories of money, trade cycles, business cycles, and in particular theories of money and interest. But they all depended upon the basic innovation: relativism (like Einstein’s relative motion of bodies) and therefore subjectivism – again, the application of calculus to human affairs. (The depth of this cognitive insight into the nature of relativism might not be apparent to most people, nor the complexity of created by it. Pi For example is forever inaccurate because it is an approximation of an infinite number of triangles. It’s insolvable using the technology of mathematics as we understand it. Economics to some degree, must make similar averages and assumptions and there is simply no way around it. In fact, the only measure of what we may do, is what we did. There may be no mathematics to explain our economic activities other than the record of our economic activities, because we invent the future, we don’t discover it. ) Austrian theory, which explained the workings of money and information in the market economy, provided the analytical and mathematical methodology with which to argue against the socialist’s attempt to revert from the increasingly complex relativistic market economy to the simplicity of the predictable the village economy. Hayek contributed to this body of economic and political theory in a range of areas. But he is particularly read for his application of the limits of knowledge to political and economic systems. These limits of knowledge are embodied in three essays. They are easy to read. And you can read them a hundred times and learn from them on every reading. 1) “Economics and Knowledge” 2) “The Use of Knowledge in Society” 3) “The Pretense of Knowledge” (To which I would add one more “Coping with Ignorance” and another by Karl Popper: “sources of knowledge and ignorance”. THey were friends and popper’s essay is insightful. ) And after reading those, the one book he referred to as a ‘pamphlet’: “The Road To Serfdom”.

    [callout]One critic has stated that “all of Hayek can be understood in a few essays”. Which is true. Of course, all philosophers can be reduced to one insight. However, his insight is profound.[/callout]

    One critic has stated that “all of Hayek can be understood in a few essays”. Which is true. Of course, all philosophers can be reduced to one insight. However, his insight is profound. Along with Ludwig Von Mises, Hayek helped undermined the advance of socialism in what was called the ‘Socialist Calculation Debate”, in which he and Mises argue: first, that as populations increase and specialize in a division of knowledge and labor, the knowledge needed to coordinate production in time is so vast and so rapidly changing that it is impossible for a central authority to obtain and use that information. Second, that prices are the vehicle by which we communicate and coordinate with one another and by destroying prices you destroy that ability to coordinate our activities. Third, that without prices and competition there is no incentive for people to participate in ‘problem solving’ necessary for efficient production, and instead, production will atrophy through entropy. Fourth, that people will simply turn to recreating the price-market in the form of a black market. There are an infinite number of additions to this list, but the central themes are the same: we must increasingly coordinate our actions in increasingly large numbers, producing increasingly complex goods using increasingly fragmentary knowledge. And that without these tools we cannot coordinate our activities. For most of his career Hayek was unhappy that ‘The Road To Serfdom’ was so well respected compared to his more ‘scientific works’ as he put it. But he changed his mind later in life. We should note that Hayek’s ideas are not arguments against redistribution or redistributive public services, so much as arguments against interference in the market economy, and the necessity of using the market economy to provide services. The contemporary reader may not understand that the scope of socialism has changed from one of outright management of the economy to incremental management of the economy. Others have followed Hayek and stated that the behavior of people in a bureaucracy is the problem, not necessarily government itself, when we see government as limited to the use of ‘earnings’ for the provision of public services. Others have theorized that the entire state can be privatized as it was under the large monarchies and can accomplish the same ends. And it appears that this might be true. Hayek’s strengths are also his weaknesses: he was a polite gentleman, and thus his arguments are often ‘softly spoken’. WHen he refutes someone else, he assumes that they are making a simple intellectual error and that he’s helping them correct it. He assumes all men have the best of ambitions. And in doing so does not expose their motivations. In particular he did not refute Keynes, who simply gave socialism a nicer name, and allowed government to change it’s purpose to that of reducing unemployment and increasing redistribution from that of creating competitive capital, and changing society from a system of saving for the purpose of inter-generational lending, to one of consumption and inter-generational dependence. This gentle conservatism perhaps limited the scope of his theory. But for whatever the reason, his theory was too limited. Among all theorists back to Hamilton and Jefferson, Hayek came the closest to solving the problem of political economy in an industrial society: but failed. He gives us warnings about what not to do, and why not to do it, but despite his efforts, he failed to tell us what we should do. Or at least, he failed to sufficiently innovate such that we could implement a society that would preserve our anglo-saxon ‘rights as englishmen’: those rights and obligations as a fraternal order of peers participating in a republican self-government operating a market economy. Which is really what the conservative movement is, and always will be, about.

    [callout]he failed to sufficiently innovate such that we could implement a society that would preserve our anglo-saxon ‘rights as englishmen’: those rights and obligations as a fraternal order of peers participating in a republican self-government operating a market economy. Which is really what the conservative movement is, and always will be, about. [/callout]

    He tried to solve the problem of political economy in the industrial age, but he failed, along with Mises, Popper and Parsons. Socialism is not an innovation. It is Luddism: the attempt to make comprehensible a market economy, which exists precisely because it is so complex and incomprehensible that we must use the pricing system and a division of knowledge and labor to administer it. But that does not mean we know how to govern a complex and diverse empire using the traditional republican methodology of opposing powers using debate and consensus over abstractions and an unaccountable legislature relying on intuition and hearsay because the numbers that they have to work with are of such imprecision and speculation that they are meaningless. And when, under fiat paper money, they are not limited by the opinions and willingness of others to comply with their ambitions. Republicanism is a methodology for operating the extended family we refer to as the city-state in a hard-money economy: people with shared economic incentives and shared values.

    [callout]Republicanism is a methodology for operating the extended family we refer to as the city-state in a hard-money economy: people with shared economic incentives and shared values[/callout]

    We have not yet solved the problem of Imperial Government under Fiat Money. Hayek thought too small and failed us. The libertarian answer is a Luddite response as well: either reduce government and our states to city states (classical liberals) or fully embrace a market government (Rothbardian-Hoppian Anarchists). And so far, we are left with creeping socialism and no sufficient answer to the problem of preserving our freedom from within competing empires. These articles can be read at http://hayekcenter.org/?page_id=11.

  • A Tiff : Hoppe and Tom Fleming and My Response

    Hans Hoppe posted what I thought was a sentimental statement on the five year history of his movement on the libertarian web site VDARE. It’s titled The Property And Freedom Society—Reflections After Five Years In this article, he gives us his interpretation of the history of his organization, the Property And Freedom Society. (of which I am a member.) It describes, as all members of these political groups tend to, the reason why the conservative and liberal wings broke up at The John Randolph Club: they were based upon a relationship between Murray Rothbard, a libertarian, and Tom Fleming, a conservative. And after Rothbard’s death, the society broke apart because there was no replacement for Rothbard that could work comfortably with Fleming. There is no mystery here. This is how the partnership process works. When one partner dies, the remaining partner tends to hold onto the previous set of commitments, and the new partners want to be seen as new peers, and to write new commitments.

    [callout] I care that my waiter is pleasant. I care that my intellectuals are either correct or insightful. [/callout]

    However, Hoppe states that Tom Fleming is ‘a difficult person’. Which is not just hoppe’s opinion, but pretty much everyone else I’ve mets opinion. And I’m not sure it’s an insult. I know I’m considered difficult by plenty of people. Intellectuals are rare, and for them, the unsophisticated are often a lot of work to deal with – it’s just frustrating. Coming to terms with people who have different metaphysics from you, is awfully hard work, and very painful at times. It’s just irritating. And these petty realities are just part of the problem of being a human being. I think Tom has done good work. I think a lot of people think he’s difficult. I think a lot of people are put off by Hoppe. That doesn’t matter to me. I just want to know if they’re right or not. I care that my waiter is pleasant. I care that my intellectuals are either correct or insightful. Their manners are immaterial to me. Tom’s response only served to confirm Hoppe’s statement. The title says it all Hans Hoppe Welcomes You to his Fantasy Island Now I’ve only met Tom I think once, and I’m not sure where it was. And he seemed an intelligent and civil guy. But, I was kind of thrown by his response. You should read it. Myself, I am over-reactive on purpose. I found that as a rhetorical device, false-hostility will give your opponent incentive to invest in, and stay with a complex argument — and that when you’re done, and get to agreement it’s more satisfying. I learned it from watching Friedman, who never gave in. And I supposed I picked up some of it from Hoppe.

    [callout]false-hostility will give your opponent incentive to invest in, and stay with a complex argument[/callout]

    The comments, per usual, are more interesting than the author’s post. My Response below is visible at Chronicles Magazine here. This is a very interesting series of posts to read. I’m a supporter of both LVMI and PFS. (I have given them money.) I’m probably one of the most literate members of the faction in the private sector. And I agree that it’s a tough crowd to spend time with. Yes, it was extremely difficult to get past the doctrinal attitude and Randian cultishness that you are complaining about in order to understand and make use of the philosophical content that’s in their line of thinking. What made it worthwhile was the number of answers provided by them, and the vast amount of effort they put into educating people of all stripes that made it easy to become involved in this branch of the history of ideas.

    [callout]I have never found Hoppe’s theatre anything other than entertaining[/callout]

    First, I don’t really care about someone’s rhetorical posture. I have never found Hoppe’s theatre anything other than entertaining, and have found him helpful and a good mentor if you’re worth his time – which I can count on having received in seconds or minutes at best. And if you accepted praxeology (I don’t for technical reasons having to do with closed systems of logic – and praxeology is a subset of behavior and so it’s a falsely closed system) you’d also look at the world as Hoppe does: if you disagree you’re just wrong because it’s logically impossible to disagree. I am pretty certain he actually believes it. And I have never pressured him on any point and found anything other than honesty underneath his posture. This posture is an incredibly effective, controversial, and therefore valuable, rhetorical device. But it’s important to understand that it’s a rhetorical device. Every single TV Producer understands this, or we wouldn’t have talking-head shows to entertain ourselves with. Part of his knowledge base, (as was Friedmans and Rothbards) is this somewhat intentionally antagonistic posture. It undermines the opposite posture: opting out of the argument. Again, this is an ancient rhetorical technique in the european model. In fact, I suspect that the members of this blog, who have left comments above, do not understand the emotive rhetorical device they themselves are using. Or rather, that Hoppe is baiting in order to obtain engagement, and most of the comments above are attempting to force methodological conformity derived from assumptions of equality under the civic republican tradition – the presupposition of majority sentiment rather than superiority of ones argument. While I’m not certain, Hoppe’s method may in fact, be the only device possible to use against the method that you’re using. And I think you’re relying upon that sentiment rather than the veracity of any argument you possess. I don’t think that needs to be the case. I think that your method lacks an analytical foundation and you’re stuck between a desire for positivist solutions to unarticulated moral problems, and relying upon majority sentiment and tradition as an argument. (WHich is the default human position in any field of endeavor.)

    [callout]Hoppe, Rothbard and Mises have fallen into, or intentionally embraced, a logical Godelian trap in an effort to find a pseudo-scientific device with which to fight the pseudo-scientific positivism underlying the rationalizations of democratic socialism.[/callout]

    Unlike your majority position, I think Hoppe, Rothbard and Mises have fallen into, or intentionally embraced, a logical Godelian trap in an effort to find a pseudo-scientific device with which to fight the pseudo-scientific positivism underlying the rationalizations of democratic socialism. So while they have advanced the body of thought, they have failed to date. Hayek failed as well, at least, to make a strong enough argument, because he relied too much upon psychology rather than calculation — and the two wings of theorists failed, (Along with Talcott Parsons) to actually uncover the problem. Despite these failings, as a research program the Anarchists have proved very fruitful. While Rothbardianism is flawed, for technical reasons this group members would not understand without quite a bit of unwilling-and-skeptically-expended effort, the structure of Misesian, Rothbardian and Hoppian argument is a strong analytical foundation for discussing what have been, for all of the history of thought, undefinable abstractions. [callout]Hoppian argument is a strong analytical foundation for discussing what have been, for all of the history of thought, undefinable abstractions.[/callout] They haves provided an alternative framework (property and calculation) to the process of balance-of-powers-through-debate, which is the technology of republican government. Or rather, they have show that WITHOUT reliance on a calculative framework, that rhetorical debate devolves into either error or fraud. They see property as a moral argument rather than necessary argument – and they do so because they failed to articulate the full spectrum of human behavior by relying on the easy-epistemology allowed by the records left from the exchange of money. They did not include the invisible institutional economy of sacrifices that people make by NOT doing things with their property, their time, their bodies and their money. I suspect the Misesians make these errors because they are a little too enamored of infinite property rights — a bias which stops them from seeing and articulating the limits of property rights, and how those limits can be calculated. (Calculation being necessary when time, permutation and content are beyond human perception without such tools.) And I suspect that they intuit, if not understand, that if they did explain that full spectrum of human action, that they’d be confronted with the necessity, rationality, and morality of redistribution and public services.

    [callout]Rothbardianism and Misesianism are an attempt to create a luddite religion based upon trade, rather than a technical political order based upon land holding, trade route holding, market participation, coordination, calculation and adaptation.[/callout]

    Rothbardianism and Misesianism are an attempt to create a luddite religion based upon trade, rather than a technical political order based upon land holding, trade route holding, market participation, coordination, calculation and adaptation. I suspect that this is simply an unconscious attempt to justify the Jewish maternal minority sentiment that comes from non-land-holding disaporic people, as opposed to the european majority fraternal sentiment of land-holding soldiers. These are sentiments, derivations and residues that we rarely if ever understand of ourselves. This Misesian and Rothbardian jewish wing is in direct contrast to the Hayekian and Christian wing’s sentiments of group persistence in order to be able to defend and hold land, and in holding and defending land, hold and defend markets and trade routes. These sentiments are the underlying difference between the Jewish and Christian wings of libertarianism: jewish reliance on words and systems of though and christian reliance on the republican and militaristic models of land holding. We cannot escape our Hayekian knowledge no matter how hard we try. and in turn, these two libertarian programs are attempts to find a solution to the problem of maintaining freedom and prosperity without having to confront the reality of the necessity of using violence to retain that freedom – when that freedom originated uniquely in the west precisely because it was obtained by, and held by, violence. In other words our political dialog is distracted by the contra-rational desire to ignore the necessity of using violence to retain sufficient power to retain freedom. [callout]our political dialog is distracted by the contra-rational desire to ignore the necessity of using violence to retain sufficient power to retain freedom.[/callout] The question remains which wing of classical liberal thought, whether it be the ‘liberal’ factions or the conservative factions, have made progress in articulating a framework for political economy once the epistemological boundary conditions imposed on the republican model by hard money were broken by the adoption of fiat money. The Austrian prescription is a return to the gold standard. Which is wrong, because the insurance provided by fiat money, or at least, paper money, is too valuable to ignore. This is simply the only solution that they can think of – and since they’re economists rather than information architects, they fall into a selection bias. We must understand that Misesian and Rothbardian thinking is that of luddites, just as was Marx – they are trying to return to a technology they understand without understanding why it’s necessary and what alternatives that there may be. These regressive ideas are conservative solutions — historical solutions to a problem of increasing individual participation in a market consisting of larger and larger numbers of people with increasingly localized and fragmentary knowledge, and operating in real time, in order to exploit opportunities that present themselves because of necessary and permanent asymmetry of information in a large population engaged in diverse production. The gold standard It is not the only solution. There are others. There is a very good one in particular. But you cannot understand that solution unless you understand the value of the methodology used in the Misesian, rothbardian, and hoppian models, and the limits of knowledge brought to bear by Popper and Hayek. This information-weakness in our existing political and economic institutions is the underlying problem of political economy with the civic republican model — If you can fathom it from the few and admittedly abstract words I’ve posted here. The problem is one of practical epistemology that allows experimentation and innovation without exposing us to the risk of human hubris on one end, and corruption, theft, and slavery on the other. [callout]The problem is one of practical epistemology that allows experimentation and innovation without exposing us to the risk of human hubris on one end, and corruption, theft, and slavery on the other.[/callout] And debates like this one over form and protocol, manners and arrogance, are frankly beneath me, and should be beneath anyone who is concerned about discovering real solutions to the problem of political economy. Both sides of this dispute, from my standpoint, are simply acknowledging their failure when they rely upon ideological, methodological, or rhetorical conformity as a means of argumentative discovery of the solutions we seek. All I read into Hoppe’s piece was sentimental reflection, and tame taunting elitism. Perhaps this is one of those debates among academics that is so important precisely because the stakes are so small. And I don’t think the above retort does much to disprove hoppe’s taunt. The tactical response would be to tease him and therefore disprove him rather than reinforce his position. And the real argument here is that everyone within this absurdly minority movement, just like all desperate little academic movements, is that it’s desperate for followers. And not operating logically, but instead, using silly socio-political tricks because we’re all desperately seeking confirmation biases in the face of a problem we cannot comprehend, rather than understanding each other’s position and desperately seeking a solution to political economy. Libertarianism is a fantastic research program within the branch of conservatism. And the world needs the movement simply because conservatives have failed to muster and articulate a rational and technical alternative to encroaching socialism. Historicism is insufficient because HISTORICAL MODELS FAILED. EACH OF THEM FAILED. The Austrians and Anarchists are very close to providing a rational solution to political economy. I suspect that they (myself included perhaps) will fail for the same reasons that this silly dispute of egos and manners illustrates. Even if someone were to publish an essay with the solution in it, and the truth of it were patently obvious, I would venture that everyone in every faction would desperately seek to use whatever content was inside that essay to justify his own position in order to keep his followers or demonstrate that he was right all along. Hume told us what the problem is. Kant failed to find a solution. A legion of political economists have spent a hundred and fifty years trying to find an answer. They came closest in the 1930’s. But Mises, Hayek and Parsons failed, just as Weber and Pareto failed. And because they failed the political sector reached out to Friedman, which provided a temporary solution even if it was the wrong one, and Hayek, because his sentiment was correct even if his solutions were faulty. The conservatives hoped to get enough people into the property society that they could counteract the dependence society. But they used general liquidity (cheap money) rather than direct investment, and so the money was used for consumption not innovation and increases in productivity. The liberals, having converted us from a saving to a debt society, the conservatives hoped to alter it, but only accomplished further indebtedness. Only the libertarians have attempted to reconvert us to mans greatest innovation: the saving and investment society. [callout]Only the libertarians have attempted to reconvert us to mans greatest innovation: the saving and investment society.[/callout] But the way we solve our political problem is not debt, or even monetary policy. It is to create an innovation over the greek city state and the roman empire and the anglo mercantilist and american consumer republic. And to understand why we need to innovate beyond that model: the limits of human perception in a complex division of knowledge and labor. And that when we break with hard money, AND at the same time pool information (accumulate quantities in categories using numeric values of abstract objects we call property) we launder the necessary causal information needed to make rational decisions. And in doing so we also remove the incentive for people to obtain and hold that information, and to be disciplined and truthful in their valuations. The information needed to evaluate Property cannot be embodied in numbers. It’s a perishable not conveyed by the number. Numbers and values are subjective judgements, not objective truths. This is the error of both liberal positivists and the general political fantasy of scientific politics sought by the socialists. [callout]The information needed to evaluate Property cannot be embodied in numbers. It’s a perishable not conveyed by the number. Numbers and values are subjective judgements, not objective truths. This is the error of both liberal positivists and the general political fantasy of scientific politics sought by the socialists.[/callout] The solution is to fix our institutions of banking and accounting, so that we possess sufficient information to make rational decisions under the economically stable civic republican model. This change in institutions is a technical problem, not a philosophical, religious or cultural one. And as a technical problem, it is a solvable problem. It does not ask anyone to ‘believe’ anything. Faith is not a strategy. Hope is not a tactic. As weber said, all advancement in institutions is calculative.

    [callout]it is bureaucracy that is a danger to us, not government.[/callout]

    The second half is to understand that it is bureaucracy that is a danger to us, not government. A bureaucrat lives outside the market, as does a priest, a politician, a union laborer, or a welfare recipient. They are no different – they are class descriptions of the same behavior. But government is the means by which we concentrate all forms of capital. It is a joint stock company whose membership is paid for by respect for property rights, and frankly, whose dividends are paid for in public services and redistribution. The problem we enter into is when public services become the purpose of government, rather than the concentration of capital necessary to provide the joint stock company with competitive economic advantage so that there are returns great enough that redistribution can be performed in one form or another. Aside from the transforming from the saving society to the debt society, the transformation of government from creating wealth to consuming it is the artifact of the 20th century. It is far easier for the houses of government to debate over spoils, than it is to debate over the creation of prosperity so that it can distribute the spoils. [callout]Aside from the transforming from the saving society to the debt society, the transformation of government from creating wealth to consuming it is the artifact of the 20th century.[/callout] The anarchists are working on solving, and have largely solved, the problem of bureaucracy. And the solution is not anarchy. The solution is privatization of the bureaucracy, and the improvement of our institutions such that the knowledge that was provided by individuals THROUGH hard money, can be provided by individuals through shared investment in borrowing from the public’s future commitments in exchange for mutual gain, while retaining accountability, and with those who are willing to be accountable because they possess knowledge by which to make rational decisions. Under this model, the government may make rational decisions about investments, and we are protected from enslavement by either debt or the bureaucracy. This is too much content for a posting, too poorly articulated for the scope of the problem. But I was trying to put the different factions into a context so that we could focus on the real problem: finding an answer to providing institutions that deliver both freedom and prosperity. And for my side, I consider Hans Hoppe a gift to all of us. He’s innovative, creative, pedagogically gifted, and most of all, funny.

  • Save Bradley? Maybe.

    Save Bradley. The soldier who leaked the video to Wikileaks? Sorry. No dice. People die in war: People kill intentionally in war. All sorts of people die by accident in war. Guilty people die by accident. Innocent people die by accident. Innocent people die because of bad information. Innocent people may die simply because someone used poor judgement. War is dangerous, messy, confusing, frightening, and largely conducted by people who are dehydrated, frightened, under extreme stress, operating largely by instinct and without the time to think, and who are physically and mentally exhausted. Only very silly people think that war is surgical, or manageable, or nice or neat or safe — for anyone at all. And some people are foolish enough to think that soldiers have time to make good judgements. War is scary, dangerous and risky. Thats why people are very cautious of it. And besides that, it’s dangerous for soldiers to behave as if everyone isn’t out to kill them.

    [callout]As a soldier, you are a voluntary, paid, and willing participant in killing, breaking, destroying life and property. And if you don’t believe in it, then you better not join. Because when you join, you give up your right to have an opinion.[/callout]

    As a soldier, you are a voluntary, paid, and willing participant in killing, breaking, destroying life and property. And if you don’t believe in it, then you better not join. Because when you join, you give up your right to have an opinion. That’s how it works. And you’re just trying to steal a paycheck and benefits, or operate as a saboteur if you enter the military without understanding that this is the very purpose and nature of war. We grant soldiers certain special rights when the enter the military. In particular, we allow them to kill people and destroy property. We allow them to do what we allow no others to do. And in exchange for that special right, they lose the right to have an opinion. Just orders are easy to understand. Unjust orders are not. The problem isn’t just or unjust orders. It’s the very fact that there is nothing just or good about war. It’s just war.

    [callout]Immoral orders are one thing. Your choice is not to obey them, resign (accept court martial) and let the military court accept it. That’s the method the military has had for centuries. Accidents, bad judgement, stupidity are part and parcel of war. There isn’t any crime in error, any more than war itself is simply terrible[/callout]

    Immoral orders are one thing. Your choice is not to obey them, resign (accept court martial) and let the military court accept it. That’s the method the military has had for centuries. Accidents, bad judgement, stupidity are part and parcel of war. There isn’t any crime in error, any more than war itself is simply terrible. If you want to leak something, become a journalist. We grant journalists very special rights that we would not grant others. Journalists are more often wrong than write, and create as much bad as good. We simply think the good is worth the bad. If you want to be a journalist, then be one. A journalist’s job is to have a point of view. A soldier’s job is to break stuff and kill people until the other side gives up. Period.

    [callout]If you want to be a journalist, then be one. A journalist’s job is to have a point of view. A soldier’s job is to break stuff and kill people until the other side gives up. Period.[/callout]

    Besides. Telling us that people died by accident, or because someone made an error, or even lost their judgement during a military exercise, is simply stating the obvious. That’s what happens in war. And so the only reason to leak it is to create propaganda for the enemy, and undermine the will of the citizens to support their military. Supporting the military may be a grand game. No one wants to see sausage made. But when you sign up, that’s what you sing up for. And if you break that confidence, those rules, from the inside, then you’re just thief and a criminal, and you deserve to be punished to the fullest extent possible. Now assuming that he leaked it because he’s a young, stupid kid who had not motivations other than to show his friends something cool, is very different from having some cause or purpose. One is bad judgement, one is treason. That’s for the military courts to decide.

  • NYT On Libertarianism

    The NYT posted an article today titled The Economics of Libertarianism, Revealed. And the usual NYT crowd followed with critical comments. Which is useful. Because we get to see what the proletariat think of a subject about which they know little to nothing. This is a very odd set of comments. Heresay on one end and incompetence and error on the other. Desipte that libertarianism is the most fully articulated political philosophy we currently possess, it is both incomplete, its authors mix semi-charismatic language with reason, and they start from a convenient and erroneous premise: non-violence. And thereby simplify the problem of political economy dramatically enough that they overstate the ease of attaining their goals. As a theorist in this field, I’ll try to correct some statements made here: 1) there are a numberer of libertarian sects. They share a preference forindividual freedom and property rights. But they vary greatly from a branch of articulated classical liberalism (cato – english sentiments) to articulated conservatism (hayekians – german sentiments) to articulated radical anarchists (rothbardians – jewish sentiments). You cannot take ‘libertariansim’ as a coherent body of work. Or better stated, you cannot take the words of any thinker at face value: most if not all human debate is an attempt to find a rational explanation for sentiments. And sentiments are residues of our cognitive biases. (Pareto) 2) Libertarianism is NOT anti-government it is anti-bureaucracy. This is the issue that confuses everyone by incorrectly framimg the debate. The terms Government and Bureaucracy are not synonyms. And libertarians are both right, rational, and supported by data when they argue against bureaucracy. It says that humans in bureaucracies (whether private or public) once they become insulated from the market and prices, live by self interest without the market function that puts their self interest to good use in the service of others. It is possible to live a life outside of the market by the homeless or hippie lifestyle, by making enough money to live on your wealth alone, or by joining the bureaucracy and simply living off the efforts of others, and ignoring their signals – prices. The underlying theory of libertarianism is a) economic calculation is competitively impossible without prices and the market. b) market incentives are necessary to create a prosperous advanced society. c) our cultural institutions are economic strategies that, much like our sentiments, we do not yet fully understand and they should be treated cautiously. Most importantly, our most cherished values are often false: people are unequal, cultures are not equal in value, diversity breeds discontent not happiness, people are racist, classist and culturist, and it’s in their interest to be so, even if it is not in their interest for legislation to be so. (Really.) d) Leglislation as we understand it is infereior to credit as a means by which we can change the behavior of people in a society. We must move from the law-society to the credit society, and our government is not organized to make that change, while the private sector is. Therefore we must push our ‘bureaucracy’ into the private secctor where the market will kill off organizations once they are no longer useful. e) insurance companies taht are highly regulated will do a better job than the governmetn of regulating most market activity. But we have over-corporialized both banking, insurance and management. In simple terms, your banker should personally back your loan, and not be able to resell it. Same for insurance. This is a complex topic but we cannot abstract all accountabilty without losing the knowledge to be accountable with in the process. f) All bureaucracies are anti-market, anti-prosperity, self-serving, eventually corrupt, and stagnate the culture and prey upon the citizenry. The market puts our selfishness to better use than the bureaucracy does. It’s that simple. The libertarian strategy is to push as much of the FUNCTON of government into the private sector where iti is subject to competitive market functions so that we can prevent the bureaucracy from forming. Because it is the bureaucracy, or, the market-exiting of people within the bureaucracy that is the problem, not government. None of the libertarians is right, word for word. They are attemtping to find a solution to a perrenial problem: coordinatoin and ocoperatin in a dynamic dividsion of knowledge and labor. They intuit solutoins based upon their cultural heritage then try to articulate solutions in a long term, vast attempt, to explain what it is that we do, and why it works. We’ve had markets for a long time. Economits don’t invent anything. They just try to explain it the best they can. Libertairnism is the best, most fully articulated political philosophy we have. But that does not mean it can be implemented without an ‘event’. Because our government is not structured to replace itself. And the citizenry will always favor democratically imposed tyrrany, commonly called Bonapartism, and teh certainty of it, over freedom.

  • There is No End Of Data, Because There Is No End Of History

    Regarding Tech and Storage, and the idea of ‘finite content’ as an allegory to the ‘end of history’: Humans are notoriously victims of boiling-the-frog biases: they cannot sense long term changes and discount prior (and forgotten) opinions for current ones. Inter-temporal cognitive biases are legion. We are going to store increasing amounts of data – nearly endless in quantity. And as that data accumulates we will transform business, social life, and the economy. Think of it along these lines: We have decreased the transportation cost of content. But in doing so we have reduced the barrier to distributing content. The problem will be whether we become better at the use of the available content, or whether we can synthesize something from all that content, good and bad, and produce another generation of new content. Frankly, as the number of channels with weak or repetitious content demonstrates, we are short of content, and innovative content is becoming very expensive to produce. Or are we stuck with the same limited number of permutations of our basic narratives, and stuck with the same very large number of human cognitive errors and myths, and destined to live under the eternal problem of pedagogy: the vast number of permutations of the same content needed in order to convey the same 1500 ideas (that’s all there are) to billions of people in hundreds of cultures, all at different ages, at different states of development, each solving different problems in the context of their own individual experiences? Can we produce the conceptual equivalents of the mono-myth is each of our fields of study? Can we simplify pedagogical symbols as if they were fundamental truths, when such truths would be contra-beneficial to some cultures, races, classes, and much more beneficial to others? As someone who does a painful amount of research, it is vastly easier today to learn anything at all than it was even five years ago. And compared to library-trading obscure works in college, vastly faster. What will come of this availability of information, or rather the frictionless availability of information? Our accounting standards are a catastrophic block on data collection, because as they exist, they launder causality – accounting as we practice it is the dusty remnant of a bygone age of sea voyages. if we changed to tagged accounting data we would produce volumes of data for mining that cannot be easily found today. What would this mean for data and analysis? Taxation? Policy? Product development? THe structure of the corporation and credit cycles? There are a number of startups producing hardware that you wear around your neck, and that take photographs every second, and record all sound all day long, creating a visually indexed record of your day. How would a storage system of that nature change the world? Privacy is changing because we are socializing a new kind of manners wherein everyone is expected to be flawed, or imperfect. How will that change the world? From a product and service manufacturer’s standpoint, the typical economic analysis using factors of production is antiquated. The primary problem for most companies is to produce a product that is interesting enough to purchase. All other things being equal, today people are purchasing almost entirely aesthetic objects for purely status-seeking and therefore opportunity-seeking purposes. The price of materials is not an issue any more than is the price of food. How is this design-economy accounted for in our models and how does this affect the craft of economics, when the design function is not as visibly a factor of resource costs? Companies do not measure their brand potential (the sentiment of consumers toward a company and its products and how that sentiment is convertible into revenue) as a form of equity. If investors could see this information, how would that affect management of companies? If it becomes increasingly easy to measure it, how will that affect markets? In the post war period, social democratic society was unified under a proletariat-and-middle-class system of inclusion-and-status-seeking-through-consumption. Now that the consumer society is ‘saturated’, and status due to ownership is insufficient to provide access to opportunities, (because everything is so cheap) how will people express their identities as purchases? Each nation state has a different IQ distribution. (If you don’t like the reality of it, I’m sorry.) Since there are material thresholds to the learning of, and use of, abstractions, there appear to be limits at 130’s for designing and using ideas, 122 for designing machines, 110 for a classical education. 105 for repairing machines. How will this affect the markets, demand for technology, or the lack of demand for it? There is no end of history. The problem of human coordination and cooperation is an endless process of temporal calculation for intert-emporal ambitions. The great revolution in farming took thousands of years to span the globe. The revolution in scientific thinking started by the anglos has only been in process for eight hundred years. The great revolution in production (and calculation) of the Anglos has taken only five hundred so far. But it has been a bloody process of resistance to change. There is no end of content. Because there is no end of history.

    [callout]Because, in the end, the primary purpose of our data collection is political in nature.[/callout]

    There are a limited number of fundamental truths available to man. But fundamental truths are not as useful as we think they are. THe coordination of human beings toward shared goals requires that they believe in myths. And truth will only hinder their achievements. Combined with the human drive for status, and the different abilities of men – some less, some more – the permutations of myths (or deceptions) will create similar themes as we have seen in the past, forever. And the media and data used to distribute those infinite permutations will do nothing except increase in scale. ***Because, in the end, the primary purpose of our data collection is political in nature.*** It always has been.

  • Another silly season: A sure sign of recession or recovery? Divorces and breakup

    Another silly season: A sure sign of recession or recovery? Divorces and breakups. Yet another animal spirit, cognitive dissonance, epistemic failure from our inability to isolate environmental signals. People breaking up is an illustration of the change in sentiments. Seems like it’s the season. Next signals to look for? Coalescence around a new hierarchy of status symbols. Emergence of new myths.


    Source date (UTC): 2010-06-12 13:14:00 UTC

  • An End To Nato? A Different Form For The Monarchical Role

    An End To Nato, “Mike DiBaggio” from The Paleolibertarian Digest

    There was once a time when the US hated piracy so much they went to war over it, but that time has obviously come to an end. Israel’s attack on the Turkish aid ship has generated little obvious outrage in the US, but then again neither did the assault on the USS Liberty. Meanwhile the rest of the world is pretty upset, and Turkey especially. Supposedly, the Turks have vowed to send naval escorts with their ships in the future. The problem for Israel then is that Turkey is a member of NATO. If their ships are attacked again, they it stands to reason that they will try to invoke Article V and call for military retaliation against Israel.

    I agree in principle. However it appears that NATO is a parallel political organization that allows more stable relationships and stronger intelligence gathering and processing than do democratic societies and their fleeting party fashions. NATO functions as a weak imitation of monarchic relationships (which were military alliances) and NATO is providing the material value that was traditionally provided by monarchic relationships. There is no NATO, other than the US military. There really hasn’t every been a NATO other than the US military. The europeans are not capable of projecting power outside of their coastlines. The only material value nato has is to allow the US power in trade negotiations and to increase US debt capacity because of the demand that trade power places upon the dollar. So, while Mike’s logic is accurate given the NAME of NATO, it’s not quite right given the FUNCTION of NATO. The monarchic militaristic social order and social class still exists in the west. It is just nearly invisible because of the predominance of popular representative democracy. Just as the upper class is invisible to society, the military is in visible, and it’s very crucial, very useful, very capitalist relationships and culture are invisible. This is one of the benefits and dangers of democratic systems. They make the real problem of maintaining trade routes and enforcing contracts, and preventing shifts in power by military means, into the art, artifice and entertainment of redistributive government. This distracting entertainment makes the population entirely incognizant of what every poorer country’s citizens understand very clearly : that the purpose of the government, if there is any purpose at all, is to establish and pool investment within a geography so that citizens can compete in, or even participate in, the market. And that this is possibly the only legitimate purpose of government other than territorial defense, and the resolution of differences over property. And the demonization of the military is propaganda for taking political control from the monarchy and transferring it to the middle class under the system of classical liberal republican government. (Just as political control moves to the masses under the system of democratic socialist secular humanism.) Schumpeter didn’t go far enough. Socialism isn’t the only problem we must guard against. Its losing the entire reason why people coordinate in groups: to compete in the market. Or to fail to and return to poverty. Schumpeterian processes might not end in a slowly declining socialism, but a catastrophic end of a society, by ending its comprehension of the market.

  • Hubris, Regulation, Artificial Life and Zombies

    Mariam Melikadze at Adamsmith.org references the movie 28 Days in order to criticize irrational and premature regulation.

    “And so, much like of the opening scenes of an apocalyptic movie, science has reached a great milestone, … The era of bioengineered creatures has officially begun. … But in all apocalyptic movies the great invention inevitably goes wrong. The environmentalists seem to have picked up on this: only a few days have passed since the discovery was revealed and they are already demanding a ban on synthetic biology. Enter regulation, the obvious answer to all of mankind’s problems.”

    Of course, the sentiment expressed in these movies, and our greek myths, is a warning against hubris. In science, economics, politics, and any other personal vanity we engage in. She is right that we cannot unlearn technology. She is right that civilizations who do not adopt technology are conquered by those who out-gun, out-germ, and out-steel them. She is right that these technologies once mastered, tend to deliver material benefits to the survivors. However, that doesn’t mean we should not be cautious, experimental, and cogent of our potential for hubris. And to be cautious, we need to keep that particular mythology alive, lest we invent other technologies like eugenics, complex derivatives, communism and thalidomide. Or engage in other acts of hubris, like the belief that regulation solves mankind’s problems.

  • Where From Comes The Collapse : The Schumpeterian Priesthood Profits From The Absence Of Calculability

    Mark Thoma suggests that the government should both use Tax Cuts and Spending to improve an economy. Which is a pretty common sentiment among economists. Nothing new there. He is simply changing his mind on the value of Tax cuts because they help correct household balance sheets and therefore increase the likelihood of future spending.

    In balance sheet recessions, tax cuts that are saved will help to end the recession sooner and hence should be part of the recovery package. The most important concern is still aggregate demand, and policies must be devoted to this problem first and foremost, but tax cuts have a role to play in the recovery process even when they are saved.

    One of the posters commented (as leftists do, on his blog Economist’s View) that increasing Demand does not fix the problem. Which I then used as a springboard.

    ken melvin said… The implicit assumption that demand provides solution is not valid, hasn’t been since forever. The model is invalid, has been since forever. Yet, for lo these nearly 40 years. we pursue this model in the face of the ever mounting failure. The model, never really sacred, was built on forensics, and, more, to make the status quo work. From physics and bio-science, we’ve evidence that man is capable of divining forward. Now is the time for economists to ask ‘how should it be’?

    But I think he misses the point.

    [callout]Economists don’t have any idea how the world should be.[/callout]

    Economists don’t have any idea how the world should be. The failures of the DSEM models are catastrophic. The problem of human memory (Mandelbrot-Taleb-Hume and to some degree Hayek) implies that humans are permanent victims to behavioral boiling-the-frog, and to the somewhere on the order of fifty cognitive biases. We know, as you state, that demand does not work. We know that innovation is a supply-bias that generates demand. It appears that it is the only means of increasing velocity and volume in an economy. We know that the state moved from saving-and-investment to consumptive redistribution and debt during the period of rapid industrialization and the act of selling off the american continent. We know that we assumed we could use mathematics to control this by a number of levers we call monetary policy. Vast Changes Give Our Ambitions Context The world is going through a number of changes. 1) repricing due to the asian economies coming into capitalism and industrial production. (Just as the US did to europe in the mid 1800’s) 2) reorganization, as people must learn and move to new forms of production (jobs) without knowing what to move to. 3) the future-assumption-of-growth debt bubble bursting everywhere. 4) the movement of private debt failure to sovereign debt failure, destroying the ‘lender and insurer of last resort’. 5) the demographic shift to an older media age population that is lower production if not non-productive. 6) Increasing urbanization worldwide (urbanites and rural’s have different epistemological biases because of perceived opportunity density – different cognitive biases, but cites are increasingly becoming the home of the poor, and income disparity is largely an urban phenomenon) 7) Decline (as has been predicted since 1945) of american ability to police trade routes inherited from the English after the wars (military influence) and increasing destabilization of trade routes, power, and monetary systems that will come from that change in influence. 8) the permanent decline in the relative economic position of american middle classes that will result from this worldwide rebalancing. The Failure Of The Democratic Republican Model Of Debate It appears that the working class’s attempt to bankrupt the capitalist class, and the capitalist class’s attempt to bankrupt the state to defend itself, BOTH worked. States are very nearly bankrupt. The republican model of debate between opposing forces for governmental decision-making under the unbounded system fiat money has failed. If we are going to have fiat money, we are going to have to find another way to debate the future. Fundamentally, our current republican form of government is government by non-productive people. By priests. It is quite the opposite of early republicanism under farmers, who specifically were productive. The classical liberal revolution failed to adequately define a government for the post-industrial era. The republican model of debate between opposing forces for the purpose of governmental decision making has failed under fiat money. If we are going to have fiat money, we are going to have to find another way to debate the future.

    [callout]The republican model of debate between opposing forces for the purpose of governmental decision making has failed under fiat money. If we are going to have fiat money, we are going to have to find another way to debate the future. [/callout]

    And since we have a clear difference between class predictions of the future (entrepreneurs must take and absorb risks so they see the future as dangerous while independent laborers and craftsmen and small business people see a similar view, but white collar educated workers and government and union workers tend to see a stable future – because they are isolated from visible flows of capital and risk), then consensus from PERCEPTIONS ALONE (*that’s the issue right there*) between classes of people who are disproportionately distributed across geographies, cannot come to a consensus of PERCEPTIONS. An emphasis on perceptions here: because a) the perceptions are vastly different, b) the data is insufficient and models are notoriously faulty in prediction c) our method of governance is not factual but PERCEPTUAL. The most common perceptive difference between cultures and classes is time preference (in the austrian model this is a degree of willingness to wait for gratification. In simple terms, people from different social classes have different views of time. Higher classes longer, lower classes shorter. There is some evidence that this is simply an expression of having means or not, or one of what a class teaches its children by implication and habit rather than intent, but that is counteracted by research showing that all classes have both short and long term thinking members. That would indicate that austrian model is correct, that the issue is the underlying drive for stimulation. In either case, these perceptions are material determinants of the differences in perceptions. All mathematical formule are improvements on our perceptions. If they prove true in forecasting outcomes they are extension of our senses. Or better said, they alter our perceptions of the world by improving our perceptions in limited domains. But data must come from categories of actions that we can measure. We cannot measure many dimensions. In particular cannot measure the alternative worlds that people to NOT choose (as we can forecast in physics using alternate world hypotheses). And we tend to measure commodities and ‘flatness’ best, and outside of those who worlds can barely forecast anything at all. How Do We Make Choices? SO in this ‘fact-less’ world, how should we know what to do, and how should we CHOOSE what to do, and what mechanism for CHOOSING what to do will work to produce outcomes that are beneficial enough, that productivity increases sufficiently to allow for redistribution, so that status-envy and status-achivement-for-mating-purposes are both satisfied? (And I am not ruling out that due to status envy a large part of any population will happily encourage the diminution of an economy. There are too many records of this effect in history.) We have the wrong form of government. We lack shared perceptions of the world – for structural reasons. We lack the tools and formulae to scientifically prove one set of perceptions or another, in order to come to agreement. How Should We Reform Government? So, how should we organize society, and what research should economists pursue, so that we can calculate, estimate, judge, plan or whatever, a future that we can agree upon in a democratic society? Or should we simply try to come up with another set of ridiculous religious concepts even if they are metaphysical (marx and Smith) or positivist (keynes and Friedman)? Or is there yet another way? Is there a way to look not at mysteries (religions and metaphysics and morality tales) or to look at false sciences (formula and application of the constant physical world principles to the heuristic world), as means by which to FORCE AGREEMENT BY FALSITY under the assumption that the world is either externally created, or naturally bound, or scientifically predictable? All of which we know are FALSE. Or instead, is there a way to cooperatively EXPERIMENT and DISCOVER that world and SHARE COOPERATIVELY in it’s RESULTS? In other words, is there a way to create a government of DISCOVERY that rewards all citizens for their participation? And more importantly, is there a way to create the correct SENSATIONS that are PERCEPTIBLE to both the entrepreneurial and the craft and the labor classes, such that the CAUSE and EFFECT of one’s actions allow the productive classes to coordinate and profit, without the systemic bureaucratic pilferage for the purpose of profiting from class warfare? Or better stated, how can we create a system of information post-agrarian, post-industrialization, that stops the priesthood, whichever form of mysticism that they practice, whether it be Monotheism, Traditionalism, or Progressive (Socialist) Democratic Secular Humanism? The rational man asks, how do we kill off religions, and that means all of them, including positivism? We are asking the wrong question So, I think both left and right are asking the wrong question. And if they are not asking the wrong question, then they are simply a band of fraudulent thieves. The problem is not one of solving economic science, so that we can justify one position or another, using what we claim is science. The problem is the very nature of our process of government. The Republican Model Of Debate Is Insufficient For Political Action, because men and women in government are incapable of possessing the information necessary to make the level of decisions with which they are tasked. We know that socialism fails because of a failure of ‘calculation’ and of ‘incentives’. We know the political model of republicanism fails above a certain very small population for the same reason that socialism fails outside of a family: that calculation becomes impossible, and incentives fail to encourage and reward productive behavior.

    [callout]The problem is the very nature of our process of government. … Religion and Law and the republican model are artifacts of the agrarian world which we left behind a century ago.[/callout]

    Sensation, Perception and Complexity We live in an advanced industrial society with tens of millions of products and hundreds of millions of people, calculating a complex future in a vast division of knowledge and labor, using metaphysical and inherited systems of perception under a government that was designed for a minority of wealthy farmers to coordinate decisions for a large number of farmers and subsistence farmers. WE use religion, and law, and now false application of science (which is simply a process of organized discovery of an existing system) to make our choices. But our choices fail. THey fail here in America. They fail in the more socialist world of europe. They failed in the most socialist and communal world of the east. They fail everywhere. Religion and Law and the republican model are artifacts of the agrarian world which we left behind a century ago. The Answer Is In Front Of Us So what is it that we need to do instead? The answer sits in front of us. It’s our religious cultural fantasies that create the mythos that prevents us from seeing it. It doesn’t matter if that silly religion is christianity (military mysticism), judaism (minority mysticism), or “democratic secular socialist humanism” (positivism: mathematical mysticism). We create a lot of social habits without really understanding them. We invent behaviors and technologies by accident and define them later on when we finally understand them. We label them and then claim to understand them, as if we invented rather than stumbled upon them by trial and error. The answer isn’t any form of ‘ism — It’s just to work at it. The question is, how do we get everyone to voluntarily work at it? What institutions do we need to make it work? How do we change government so that these institutions succeed? THe libertarians have been right about a lot of these institutional problems. They have been wrong on selfishness and money. Christian protestants have been right about cultural discipline and production, but wrong about separation of church, state, and banking. Keynesians and Friedmanites have been wrong about free trade and monetary policy. Everyone is just a little bit right.

    [callout]Or do we, like all other urbanized civilizations in history fall prey to the real reason for Collapse : the failure of law and religion .. due to permanent [urban and market] anonymity that breaks the prisoner’s dilemma of social cooperation…?[/callout]

    Collapse Or do we, like all other urbanized civilizations in history fall prey to the real reason for Collapse (Diamond was wrong) : the failure of law and religion (punishment and ostracization) in an urban society due to permanent anonymity that breaks the prisoner’s dilemma of social cooperation in families, friends, tribes and among farmers and craftsmen, who are dependent on themselves for their production? Schumpeterian Intellectuals Since we created the market, people have increasingly chosen to enter it. First by making excess production in order to get money to buy scarce goods that they could not produce on their own. Second, by entering the market, by producing ALL goods for the market and relying entirely upon the market for sustenance. They stepped into a world of risk without the comforting cushion of their farms. Then, once dependent upon the market, they started seeking jobs in the market-bureaucracy where they were isolated from the market risk. (this is the purpose of going to college today – to exit the market). And this is the entire issue for our civilization: so many white collar people have exited the market by joining the private sector market-bureaucracy, and are compensated highly for it (as were priests in pre-secular society), that they ‘sense’ that the market doesn’t exist. So we have a productive class (people who speculate with capital whether) we have a dependent class, and we have a bureaucratic class (the state, and the private sector white collar and union workers). The dependent class cannot function in the market. The bureaucratic class lives off other people in the market but are exited from it – living in the best of both worlds, and the capital-risking class is the minority of the market taking all the risk. The market is a process of discovery. The question is how do we build a democratic society for a world of discovery without having the white collar market-exiters (Schupeterian intellectuals) destroy the market? Or rather, how to we reward the productive classes, whether they are laborers, craftsmen, entrepreneurs or capitalists, and deprive the priesthood who lives off them? Because all Priesthoods. All bureaucracies. Are predatory. And our Bureaucracy, our priesthood, has simply extended into the private sector.Today’s economists are no different. They are, in large part, part of the positivist priesthood. That’s the reason for Collapse: Schumpeterian collapse: The dependent and bureaucratic classes cause the collapse of the productive entrepreneurial class, who, like Atlas can no longer carry them, or is no longer willing to. The solution is to create a government that does not pool information and thereby launder it. But that informs everyone accurately of their contribution, or dependence, upon the cooperative endeavor, the joint stock company that administers the market that we call ‘the state’.