Author: Curt Doolittle

  • THOUGHTS ESTIMATING CREATIVE AND SOFTWARE PROJECTS : POKER You know the whole ca

    THOUGHTS ESTIMATING CREATIVE AND SOFTWARE PROJECTS : POKER

    You know the whole card game thing actually works pretty well. But it’s harder to do in some settings than others. In house dev is pretty easy. But international groups, with different skill sets, it’s pretty hard.

    If you read everything out there (I have) most of it’s pretty obvious behavioral psychology. In my view I want to encourage people to invest very little time up front estimating, but to get estimates from a lot of people on the team, and narrow those estimates as we come closer to execution. The reason is that the statistical analysis of each individual’s estimate of any given work item, over time, is pretty accurate. In other words, if you estimate 100 things over three months, and the end work actuals are captured as hard data, over time, we can do a better job of predicting estimates on first blush than we can with deep analysis. Just how it is. Intuition being what it is across a group of people.

    What bothers me is that in house people are pretty comfortable sitting around pondering this stuff. But in my experience, high speed high production service businesses, have an extremely hard time doing this kind of thing, partly because they have less direct influence over team members who have much more autonomy, and more varied and irregular demands.

    So, the way I’ve looked at the feature in oversing, after looking at a zillion alternatives, is to set up a mixture of triangulation and card game that can be done real-time or not. The PM/DM/SM or whatever picks a range of stories / features to estimate. We handle both narrative and functional approaches. (In-house I use functional not narrative because of the workflow engine’s ability to modify all experiences.) Then launches the game at a particular time, and can do it interactively, or iteratively. Personally I absolutely love the iterative approach because I freaking hate sitting there working at the rate of the slowest bandwidth at the table.

    Each item is presented for triangulation against other previous estimates (if there are any) and you vote by dragging the card into the position with the appropriate points. When done, you commit that card. At some point, the PM/DM/SM calls the hand, flips the cards, and all the players are informed about the ‘hand’.

    This means I can run through thirty items at my speed, and someone else at theirs, and we don’t have to do it at the same time, and we can do it as a cognitive break from our other work.

    Now, I’ve set it up to ‘award the pot’ to people who are accurate estimators. So it’s a little bit of a game. The pot is just a score, and this score is part of your profile. The better your ‘winnings’ are the better you look at estimating. It’s pretty fun really.

    This kind of gamification matters because in large consulting companies people don’t know much about you and these sort of metrics build an empirical reputation for you tat’s visible on your FB-like profile.

    Alternatively, you can run the game interactively, with people right in the room, or over Skype etc. The point is that you can run it either way. Or even a combination of the two. (I don’t have to be there in person to play my hands – yes I know purists. But again. I dont get to tell people how to run their projects. I just get to find ways to help them run them the way that they want to. Advocacy is your job. Enablement is mine. )

    Now, when you move from the backlog to the sprint you estimate, (or at least most people do) in hours, and break the story or feature into discrete measurable tasks.

    Oversing records actuals in painful detail. You sort of plan your day or week on an normal calendar, and we just assume that whatever you plan is what you did unless you change it. It’s pretty easy to reconcile your billings this way, by handling exceptions to your agenda rather than trying to remember what you did. (I’m not doing it justice here.) You don’t really fill much out on your timecard. The system does all of that for you. (I know. Cool. It’s awesome. Thank Max Romanenko. It’s his doing.)

    So, we have SWAGS in points, Refined estimates from the triangulation-poker-game, hourly estimates for tasks, forecast time against them, actual time recorded. And our funnel statistics are pretty solid with that information.

    That said, any brilliant insights would be appreciated.

    Cheers.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 16:03:00 UTC

  • must-read) YOU CAN’T OWN YOUR TERMS: “OVER-LEARNING” AND “SPECIALIZATION”; WHY A

    http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/08/libertarianism_3.html(libertarian must-read)

    YOU CAN’T OWN YOUR TERMS: “OVER-LEARNING” AND “SPECIALIZATION”; WHY ARE LIBERTARIANS MORAL SPECIALISTS?

    (An attack on Caplan’s Progressive Libertarianism as organized privatization of the commons.)

    Bryan Caplan tries yet another attempt at framing. This one partly successful. But like many of his arguments, partly a failure – for moral reasons he cannot seem to grasp.

    This exceptionally good post, from August, positions libertarians as moral specialists because they ‘overlearn’ that morality. Now, he seems to not like my redefinition of his pseudo-objective label ‘overlearning’ as ‘specialist’. (At least in a PM to me that is what I gathered.) But I just view this

    [quote] “The fundamental difference between libertarians and non-libertarians is that libertarians have over-learned common-sense morality. Non-libertarians only reliably apply basic morality when society encourages them to do so. Libertarians, in contrast, deeply internalize basic morality. As a result, they apply it automatically in the absence of social pressure – and even when society discourages common decency.”[end]

    I’m going to rephrase that ‘authorization to steal’ that Caplan is trying to justify, and say that non libertarians place a greater concern on externality. The Caretaker left sees her as exploited, and resorting to prostitution out of desperation. (Something I agree with, but only in the minority of cases.) The Tribal Right sees her as corrupting the family that is the core of society (something I agree with but also only in the minority of cases). As far as I can tell, prostitution serves the needs of two groups of people who have too few alternatives. But that is different from saying that it’s either a ‘good’ or should be visible. I mean, sex is undeniably pretty awesome, but I don’t’t want to see people doing it in public. Or any other terribly hedonic activity for that matter. The public is the market and the rules of conduct are no different from a shopping mall – because the ‘public commons’ is a shopping mall. It’s just a very large one.

    [quote]: “For example, non-libertarians routinely say, “A woman has a right to use her own body as she likes.” But it never even occurs to them that this implies that prostitution should be legal. Why? Because non-libertarians only apply this principle in the exact situations where their society encourages them to do so. They learn the principle without over-learning it. Libertarians, in contrast, can’t help but see the logical connection between a woman’s right to use her own body and the right to have sex for money.”[end]

    Of course, I think this is a perfect example of the difference between ‘progressive (jewish) ghetto libertarianism’ and ‘conservative (european) aristocratic libertarianism’. That is. that in aristocratic ethics, we are responsible for externalities created by our actions. In jewish (Rothbardian) ethics of the ghetto, we are not. Our responsibility ends at the voluntary exchange.

    In fact, if we look at history, the more external consequences to ghetto ethics, the better, and the fewer external consequences to aristocratic ethics the better. That every time we do NOT take advantage of an opportunity to profit from an externality, or profit despite externality, we are creating the commons of the high trust society, where morals and norms are our primary form of capital, is not understood. But it is the reason for the western high trust society.

    In the context of a woman’s rights to her body, It is not that prostitution is not a woman’s choice. It is whether we can see and hear it, and are aware of it, and therefore it becomes part of the normative commons, or whether it is an invisible interpersonal activity that is not visible in and part of the normative commons.

    We westerners hold that normative capital is material capital, and that obtaining a discount on your personal for-profit activities, cannot privatize (steal) the commons. It’s not that you don’t have the choice to engage in prostitution. It’s that you don’t have the right to create a hazard in the commons.

    Conservatives don’t know how to EXPRESS that. They just say it’s wrong or immoral. but that’s because conservative property rights are 4500 years old, and, over that period of time, they’ve been habituated as traditions and norms to such a degree that they are ‘over-learned’ – precognitive.

    So I’ll go on record as correcting Bryan Caplan, and say that in fact, he’s correct that libertarianism is a moral specialization. He may be correct in that libertarians over learn it. He may be correct in that libertarians use autistic applications of those rules.

    But he is very, very wrong, in advocating theft from the normative commons. It is IMPOSSIBLE to construct property rights as a norm that must not be violated in any degree, while at the same time saying that norms are not property. This is logically inconsistent, and it’s demonstrably false.

    We need to criticize, ridicule, and eliminate the progressive libertarian fantasy brought about by Rothbard, and drawn from the anti-social ethics of the ghetto, and restore liberty to its cultural origins in aristocratic western culture. You have property rights as, because you respect others property. And the normative commons is property, It costs us to respect property. It costs us to respect norms. We pay for private, common, and normative property by our actions.

    And that is what we have done with propertarianism. Propertarianism is a universal descriptive ethical system for describing and rendering commensurable all ethical models by making transparent all voluntary and involuntary transfers.

    And using propertarian reasoning, makes visible that the progressive libertarian argument is in fact, advocating theft from the normative commons as a means of privatizing an existing public good. It is theft.

    End Progressive Rothbardian Libertarianism as the same as progressive leftist theft. Progressives leftists want to steal your physical assets and prevent development of the normative commons. Progressive libertarians want to steal the commons and make it impossible to have a normative commons.

    The uniqueness of the west is its high trust normative commons which extends familial altruism to all, in all exchanges by forbidding involuntary transfer in all means in all conditions, in all forms, of all forms of property whether private, common or normative. Period.

    So it is all well and good that we have progressive libertarians trying to make self-congratulatory terminology to obscure their advocacy of theft of the hard won commons. but it is even better that we end this divisive campaign and focus instead on uniting aristocratic libertarians with aristocratic conservatives. Because that way we can restore the normative commons and the high trust society that Progressives on the left and progressive libertarians are out to destroy.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 14:23:00 UTC

  • (ASCENTIUM) GOSSIP How long does it take between the time I say something on FB

    (ASCENTIUM) GOSSIP

    How long does it take between the time I say something on FB to make it all the way through the board and back to me? Clue. It takes much longer for someone to tell me than it does for the gossip to run through the network. lol

    Take the moral high ground. 🙂

    In the end, it always works.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 12:16:00 UTC

  • “ARISTOCRATIC PROPERTARIAN EGALITARIANISM” Distributed government. Property righ

    “ARISTOCRATIC PROPERTARIAN EGALITARIANISM”

    Distributed government.

    Property rights for all.

    Equality of merit.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 12:03:00 UTC

  • DOES THE WORLD LOOK LIKE WITHOUT FAMILIES? What does that mean for politics?

    http://www.newgeography.com/content/003133-the-rise-post-familialism-humanitys-futureWHAT DOES THE WORLD LOOK LIKE WITHOUT FAMILIES?

    What does that mean for politics?


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 10:53:00 UTC

  • HERBIVORES VS CARNIVORES : THE CULTURE OF DECLINE : THE M.R.M. Joel Kotkin on Ja

    HERBIVORES VS CARNIVORES : THE CULTURE OF DECLINE : THE M.R.M.

    Joel Kotkin on Japan’s Herbivores: Males to decline to participate in society, decline to be competitive, decline to accumulate wealth and capital.

    Male Feminization: is the culture of ‘decline’.

    It is very cheap to be a man. If I could make 2K a month supported by the state, and have health care, and make another 1K a month under the table, I could live with other guys in a pretty good house, complete my writing, play video games, eat very well, drive a good car or motorcycle, and basically ride through life comfortably without any concerns.

    That’s true for between a third and half of all males.

    And you want to talk about ‘sustainability?’

    The only form of sustainability is malthusian poverty.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 10:14:00 UTC

  • PROGRESSIVE VS LIBERTARIAN VS CONSERVATIVE THOUGHT PROCESSES It frustrates progr

    PROGRESSIVE VS LIBERTARIAN VS CONSERVATIVE THOUGHT PROCESSES

    It frustrates progressives no end, that libertarians generally provide solutions to progressive problems but without ‘consensus making’. They object to our solutions, not on the grounds that we haven’t provided a solution. But because that solution originates in cooperation by competition rather than by consensus. For progressives, how a process feels is as, or more, important than what hit achieves. Precisely the opposite of libertarians.

    But it’s easy to understand why. Progressives are driven by consensus-making as a good in itself. Whereas libertarians understand that the market makes millions of parallel forms of consensus at every moment, and verbal consensus does not, and cannot, because it is a simple local phenomenon. Not that it’s bad. It isn’t. It just is incredibly ineffective at at market scale.

    For conservatives, a process must be intuitively moral, or they will reject it. Not because it fails to achieve their objectives, but because it is not intuitively moral. And they value that something is intuitively moral as much more more than they value achieving a particular outcome. This is precisely the opposite of how libertarians see the world: as reason not intuition.

    We have the most rational policy recommendations. But we fail to satisfy the emotional needs of conservatives and progressives in solving policy ideas. That is because they want to win the war of having people think like they do, more than they want to produce any outcome.

    That is why we libertarians tend to think of the other political dimensions as either arational or absurd. ‘Cause they are. 🙂


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-12 05:31:00 UTC

  • NO. That is not why we are anti-keynesian

    http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/10/a_challenge_for.htmlUM NO.

    That is not why we are anti-keynesian.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-11 09:54:00 UTC

  • SIX RULES

    http://alephblog.com/2013/10/11/taleb-versus-reality/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAlephBlog+%28The+Aleph+Blog%29TALEB : SIX RULES


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-11 09:36:00 UTC

  • the business

    http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/quis-custodiet-put-the-regulators-on-trial-if-they-screw-up?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+economics_news+%28tutor2u+Economics+Blog%29#When:02:33:37ZProfessionalize the business.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-10-11 09:32:00 UTC