Bret For you this may be a surprise. But for those of us who work on predicting

Bret
For you this may be a surprise. But for those of us who work on predicting the outcomes of long cycles, it’s deterministic. I’ve been writing about it since 2004. Look at Turchin alone and that’s enough.

There is no way that without having finished the job of ending the age of empires but defeating both the soviets (Patton) and the Chinese (MacArthur), that we would be able to bring about the age of federations and nation states that was the post war ambition.

European war culture is great for european people because it minimizes long term harms. But when applied to non-europeans it’s foolish. Especially when both RU and CN practice “delay and decieve” strategy and then aggress when youi’re in a period of weakness.

I haven’t been able to determine why it’s taking so long for RU, CN, IR to simply overload western military capacity – especially wen we only have something on the order of 60 days of ammunition for all the wonderfully expensive hardware we have floating, flying, and sitting around the world.

It’s pretty obvious. China will act last.

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