~~”Q: Curt: How much can we trust mainstream analysis by people like Peter Zeiha

~~”Q: Curt: How much can we trust mainstream analysis by people like Peter Zeihan?”~~

@PeterZeihan has BECOME the mainstream voice because he’s been insightful and an excellent communicator – but he was not originally so mainstream and neither was Stratfor, where he worked before he spun off on his own. I’ve asked him, and he’s said he’s as surprised as the rest of us that he’s become so influential. 😉

Zeihan’s method is pretty difficult to challenge over the long run, because he has so much data and so much history to work from and the macro effect of the combination of US strategic withdrawal, demographic collapse, and Chinese suicidal destruction of the world order of prosperity the US created makes a future that is ‘different’ more predictable because we understand ‘going backward’ than a future where we can’t yet imagine going forward. Who would have thought social media, dating sites, sex-related sites, tik-tok, and Instagram would be this destructive? Or that women would be so destructive when using it?

However, the future is kaleidic, and personalities in power are often unpredictable. And the only weakness, if you want to call it a weakness, in Peter’s predictions is that it’s terribly difficult to predict outlying events (Black swans). I mean who would have thought that Chairman Xi would be the cause of world systemic economic collapse? What kind of idiot would do that in a futile attempt to become a world power, and especially with so vast a number of poor and without first escaping the middle-income trap? Seriously.

Reply addressees: @OtonielFilho5