… Continued:
YOU PAY NOW OR LATER
The strategy of NATO is to bleed Russia in a proxy war through Ukraine. This is working though there is no end in sight. Because Russia never gives up a battle before losing half a million men (even if it has only 8M of age to draw from), and because Putin will be killed if he steps down. So, RU is “betting it all” restoration of the Russian empire. And his escalation path was obvious the moment we recognized he was reserving costly air power.
Now, we can appease the Russians (French, Iranians, Chinese et al,) or we can pay cheaply now or expensively later.
The reality is that until RU has a change of government and a change of strategy that encourages it to adopt rule of law and federalism ‘with Russian characteristics’, we cannot integrate them into european civilization, and must eventually fight a very scary war. (we must recognize that RU must maintain imperial status over its territories for the same reason the USA needed to reach the west coast: to create strategic safety.)
So just as RU is playing for time, we are playing for time, both of us in the hope that the other side tires. This is the safest game.
That said, I suspect that I am correct that RU will use air to shut off supply routes into UA, threaten tactical nuclear weapons against the UK, Nordics, or Baltics, and then continue its traditional strategy of just leveling anything in front of them.
Meanwhile, the USA is not increasing the production of military ammunition (bullets, RPGs, Manpads, Missiles, Bombs) necessary to either conduct a war of self-defense, or to supply the already promised and paid-for weapons due to our allies for their defense.
-FIN-
Source date (UTC): 2023-02-18 20:51:12 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627048105995796480
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627025797239431170
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