March 15th, 2011
Ok, so before I get started here, let me avoid a little criticism right from the start. I’m not a typical agency guy. While I’m the CEO of a fairly large agency, I’ve also been founder, CEO or a principle at companies in a variety of fields from technology to law. And in each field we humans see the world through different lenses. I have a lens too. And fundamentally, I’m a political economist.
A political economist is a certain kind of geek. It means I think in terms of society, incentives, habits, beliefs, institutions and organization, as well as money and all that money entails. And it also means that i’m not politically correct, or even very tempered in my observations.
That’s not my job. Something is either true or not, and useful or not. Whether people like it or not isn’t something I worry too much about. There are plenty of people who can do that. THere aren’t that many of us that predict trends.
Furthermore, on top of being a little controversial, I’m a contrarian. That term has a technical meaning. It means that I look for the point at which fashions and trends ‘fail’, or ‘top out’, and the consequences of those trends and their failures.
Lastly, the division of knowledge and labor in the world is also divided into time periods. So some people think in short term, some medium term, and some long term, and people like me look at the very long term, and I try to understand how organizations react to changes in society.
So, I see the world through those lenses. And through those lenses I try to find patters that will inform us and our clients about the likely course of events, or the reason some events occurred. In other words, my job is trends.
And it turns out, whether by luck or skill, I”m pretty good at trends. That puts me at odds with most marketers. In fact, you would be surprised how many of my postings the board of directors asks me to take down. It’s one of the reasons I don’t write on this industry very often. It’s because I’m largely a critic of it. I’m a critic of it because I understand that marketing is a social science and companies, people’s livelihoods, as well as our national competitiveness are significantly impacted by whether we are good at marketing or not.
So, my job is to be right on long term trends.
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