Or we can just simplify Taleb and say that we evolved to identify opportunities

Or we can just simplify Taleb and say that we evolved to identify opportunities using very little available information, but it takes an absurd – meaning voluminous and expensive – amount of information before we know enough to determine whether the effect of an outlier cancels out all the possible opportunity that can result from our identification of opportunity using little information. Or to put Taleb’s rule of thumb to it: canceling outliers require logarithmic increases in information before we have any idea of the consequences. Ergo, it is better to be against people act opportunistically in the short term under the assumption of the stability of a long term.