Nassim Nicholas Taleb is working on Finance, Policy and Risk. I am working on La

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is working on Finance, Policy and Risk. I am working on Law. But fundamentally we are working on the same problem.

And to some degree I have an easier problem to solve. I only have to demonstrate the need for warranty of due diligence (truthfulness) and of ‘demonstrated warranty’ (skin in the game).

Taleb is trying to do something harder: to price risk – to determine the reserve amount of the warranty.

I know his problem needs solving. I just don’t know if it can be improved beyond his basic statement that small increases in prediction require vast increases in information.

Which is a problem. Why? Because the moment you can get enough information to do that, it means the value of the opportunity has declined, because others may have that information also.

The mind’s intuition is risky but then, it’s also not externally knowable.

I do not know if we can improve our ‘rule of law’ in matters of price except by indirection: if the individual loses, how does he gain? This is a kind of falsification warranty. (Which may be difficult to understand.)