INFORMATION VS KNOWLEDGE VS UNDERSTANDING Some predictions require information (

INFORMATION VS KNOWLEDGE VS UNDERSTANDING

Some predictions require information (facts within the context).

Some predictions require knowledge (of operations and processes)

Some predictions require understanding (of deterministic relations and limits)

Most predictions requires all of the above.

The difficulty of a prediction is the inverse of the information, knowledge and understanding available, times the volatility (limits) in our understanding.

Taleb’s interesting question is whether we can somehow quantify this ratio.

Which I intuit is possible but assume we need vastly more precise data than we have today.