FIVE STRATFOR PREDICTIONS I follow STRATFOR pretty closely. They rely very heavi

FIVE STRATFOR PREDICTIONS

I follow STRATFOR pretty closely. They rely very heavily on geo-strategy and demographics rather than some absurd idealism, or pure economics to make predictive trends. (Economics are more derivative than causal when compared to geography and demographics.)

1) “Turkey will emerge as Iran weakens”

Well Iran is an economic basket case, so this is better stated as “Turkey is Emerging as Iran Weakens” and Turkey is a country that’s the most sane in the Muslim world. While we probably all want a strong Turkey and a strong Russia, the muslim world needs a credible core state that can hold other states accountable for their actions within the civilization. I just have a hard time seeing turkey become the core state, even though it will emerge as the most important economic power. That culture is still too primitive and mired in familialism to join the first world.

2) “Russia will use economic tools to build influence in Eastern Europe”

Well, what do you mean ‘will’? Russia owns big industry in Ukraine through the extensive use of credit, and Russia controls the flow of energy. So either western and Eastern Ukraine split, or Ukraine will have to act as a client state of Russia in every way possible. Personally I think Ukrainians are a sweet people that could join Europe even if Russian’s couldn’t. But the stage is set for at least eastern Ukraine to act as a Russian client state. (Canada’s client-state relationship to the USA for example.)

3) “Certain developing countries will emerge as economic alternatives to an increasingly uncompetitive China”

Already happening. The china miracle is slowing down. Not much surprise there.

4) Economic instability will force change on China’s political foundations

This one I don’t buy. I think that not enough time has passed, and that they will retain their strategy, as has france, of being a pain in the ass to the rest of the world in order to demonstrate their relevance.

5) “The tension between economic interests and cultural stability will define Europe”

Which is saying nothing. Either Europe evolves into a german empire (which is actually what I prefer) or the catholic and protestant countries have to split. Given that the low friction route is to maintain the german empire, I think this will be the result. If we can get the USA militarily and strategically out of Europe, then Germany might get out of her WW2 guilt and take responsibility for Europe once again. (Please). The is the only way I know of to rescue western civilization – to restore the confidence germanic protestant values and mythology.