STRATEGY: TRUMP AND UKRAINE Like most europeans, I don’t think you understand Tr

STRATEGY: TRUMP AND UKRAINE
Like most europeans, I don’t think you understand Trump. You cannot understand him without reading his book ‘the art of the deal’ which explains his approach to argument and negotiation. So, he is merely preserving his negotiating position by preserving uncertainty.

First, Trump has told Putin that the USA will kill him directly if necessary. Putin is foolish arrogant and ideological, but not stupid.

Second, Trump will demand a ceasefire or threaten to destroy all russian assets and soldiers on ukrainian territory.

Third he will very likely demand a return to original borders, certainly zaporizhia at a minimum – and then offer either donetsk and luhansk together, or crimea, but not both, as a starting point for negotiations. Zaporizhia is necessary for Ukraine’s economy. Donetsk and Zaporizhia are resource territories (coal, gas), that ukraine could benefit from, and europe would prefer access to, but for ukraine to reconstruct and police them is perhaps unwise for the purposes of creating internal political stability and ending corruption necessary for full NATO and EU membership. Crimea is more important to Russia than the other provinces because of Russia’s lack of warm water ports.

Trump will likely use the higher demand for crimea to threaten putin to take a face-saving deal. It’s trivial for the West and Turkey to end russian military power in the black sea permanently.

Trump’s bluster is largely directed at europeans taking responsibility for their own defense and ending the american payment for world defense of transport and trade.

If europe could hold it’s own (and it can), then the anglosphere (uk, canada, usa, australia, new zealand) and our ‘near family’ Japan are something that the anglosphere can defend if the world returns to despotism (as it’s definitely trying to).