Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while ackn

Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while acknowledging that all inflation ends up in housing prices and promissory (investment) assets, and all of which correct at some time (ie: the austrians were correct int hat you can’t kick the can down the road forever). Yet it is almost impossible to see world assets flee under stress to any other political system, because the US (and UK) are the only governments that protect investments even at cost with rigorous legal systems.
1 – world conflict will cause evaporation of inflated asset prices. (Increasingly likely.)
2 – the demographic production and capital production collapse we entered two or three years ago, will cause deflation of asset prices (increasingly likely)
3 – We will experience the ‘two decade depression’ that will gradually vaporize those assets in concert with the above events.
4 – We will continue the ‘managed decline’ with the fed doing all it can to flatten it as much as possible, until we are as poor as europeans today (by comparison) and europeans will be poorer than they are today by comparison.
5 – Sometime after that the public insurance sector, incluiding medical and retirement will bottom out.
6 – But I’m still on the side of ‘all of the above plus a civil war’ because that’s sure what it looks like to me.

So it’s possible that any one of those or all of those could happen. Without population growth, the decline of taxation to allow it, and the restructuring of the economy to reduce relative costs (now out of control) I don’t see any way to produce prosperity by the acceleration of consumption that we have in the past.

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