Q: CURT: WILL THE PUBLIC STOCK MARKET STILL EXIST IN THE COMING DECADES? Yes for

Q: CURT: WILL THE PUBLIC STOCK MARKET STILL EXIST IN THE COMING DECADES?
Yes for reasons too many to list. However it will change as it has continued to change throughout our history:
1) We are exiting the period of boomer capital oversupply and entering a post-boomer period of capital undersupply.
2) At the same time we are losing comparative advantage in IQ, Technology, Institutions, Economic Scale, Geostrategic influence, and political legitimacy.
3) There is every reason to believe capital will continue to concentrate in a few sectors and the majority of sectors will continue to lag – in fact, I don’t know why the measurements don’t separate those markets already (for the purpose of the news).
4) There is every reason to believe capital flight to the USA will continue and accelerate.
5) There is every reason to believe however that technology will further reduce the population of speculators to those who can afford the compute.
6) There is every reason to believe that – and get ready for this – the treasury will take over vast portions of the consumer credit, insurance, and investment markets even more so than does singapore, and put that investment into longer time frames and greater yields. The consequence is that institutional dollars derived from consumers will shrink in favor of foreign dollars. The scale of this is likely to be profound. This means that the market will be deprived easy capital, and vast portions of the banking, insurance, and consumer investment sector will be wiped out almost entirely. I cold write more on this but I am one of the authors of all of these policy changes and If I’m thinking of it then so are others.
6) So basically imagine that capital is scarce, it comes with more strings attached, and from a broader capital base, and that there is MUCH more volatility and much lower growth. And the growth that’s available will be in markets that are riskier than today.

I don’t really think this is pessimistic. If I were to take a pessimistic stance it would be that there is a non zero chance of a world war, a long running USA ‘troubles’ (civil war) or a catastrophic civil war, and it’s possible both the world war and the civil war occur at the same time, or that the civil war will encourage the world war.

My job is to look at these fields of possibility. At. present I do not see possibility of continued growth by consumption. So I’ve worked on ‘what to do next’ under that assumption. And it means the equivalent of a restructuring and downsizing for a major industry, until prices and debts equilibrate back to levels possible to alter marriage, reproduction, and consumption rates. And to do so without further lowering national IQ through immigration. We are approaching 97 at present and if it dips below that we are probably headed toward a second world economy. Even today we are suffering from white population decline, such that Asian and Indian populations are supplying workers, and we are still importing talent from europe because europe is unsuited for entrepreneurial growth.

Cheers
CD

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